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Chapter 11 An Introduction to Open Economy Macroeconomics Chapter Objectives • Analyze the relationship of balance of payments and the exchange rate to each other and to the national economy – Focus particularly on the interactions of the current account, exchange rates, consumption, investment, and government spending • Explore the role of national governments in the economy: especially the impact of macroeconomic policies on the exchange rate and the current account Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-2 Introduction • Since the Great depression of the 1930s, national governments have held a central role in guaranteeing economic growth, employment, and price stability • However, besides policies, the day-to-day operations of governments, consumers, and businesses alike have a major impact on the current account and exchange rates Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-3 Key Players in the Macroeconomy Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-4 Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis • Aggregate supply and demand shows the relationship between economic output (GDP) and price levels in the macroeconomy at a given point in time • The aggregate supply curve calls attention to three regions of GDP: under, nearing, and at or beyond full employment equilibrium • the aggregate demand curve shows expenditure by consumers (C), business (I), the government (G), and foreign purchases of exports – domestic purchases of imports (X–M) at various price levels Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-5 FIGURE 11.1 Aggregate Demand (AD) and Aggregate Supply (AS) Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-6 Aggregate Supply and Demand (Cont.) • Changes in aggregate supply or demand, which can occur for numerous reasons, lead to new levels of GDP and prices • An increase in consumption expendature (C), business investment (I), or government spending (G), for example, would increase aggregate demand • When GDP or price levels are not at their desired levels, macroeconomic monetary or fiscal policy may be prescribed Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-7 FIGURE 11.2 A Shift in the AD Curve Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-8 Two Categories of Macroeconomic Policies • Fiscal policy: government taxation and expenditures; usually formulated by the legislative and executive branches • Monetary policy: money supply and interest rates; usually formulated by the central bank and the finance ministry • Let’s analyze fiscal and monetary policies in detail… Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-9 Fiscal Policy • Expansionary fiscal policy: increase in government spending and/or cuts in taxes; result in an increase in output – Multiplier effect: increase in demand ultimately results in an even larger increase in production and income as effects of the demand hike run through the economy • Contractionary fiscal policy: cuts in government spending and/or increases in taxes – Have a negative multiplier effect Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-10 Monetary Policy • Works through a combination of change to the supply of money and change to interest rates • Open market operations: central bank´s buying and selling of bonds in the open market – Selling bonds leads the nation’s financial institutions to give up some of their cash, with cash reserves shrinking throughout the economy Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-11 Monetary Policy (cont.) • Central bank’s increasing the supply of money in he economy reduces the interest rate – Expansionary monetary policy: an increase in the money supply and decrease in interest rates – Contractionary monetary policy: a decrease in the money supply and a rise in interest rates Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-12 FIGURE 11.3 Money Supply and Demand Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-13 Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Sum • Both fiscal and monetary policy influence exchange rates and the current account balance – In both cases, the effect is through a change in interest rates – Neither policy is likely to have long-run effects on income Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-14 Implementation of Fiscal and Monetary Polices Compared • Implementation of monetary policy is relatively simple: conducted by the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve • Implementation of fiscal policy is more difficult: requires Congress to pass legislation that must be signed by the president Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-15 Current Account Balances Revisited • Recall: S + (T – G) = I + CA • How does a change in income caused by a change in monetary or fiscal policy affect the current account? Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-16 Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Current Account Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-17 FIGURE 11.6 U.S. Current Account Balance, 1980–2002 (Billions of $U.S.) Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-18 Marco Policies for Current Account Imbalances • Expenditure switching polices and expenditure reducing policies: a combination of fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies for addressing current account imbalances – Expenditure switching policies include exchange rate depreciation and trade barriers – Expenditure reducing policies are contractionary monetary or fiscal polices Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-19 Marco Policies for Current Account Imbalances (cont.) • The two policies must be applied simultaneously: expenditure shifts without expenditure reductions are inflationary, while expenditure reductions without shifts toward domestic producers is recessionary Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-20 The Adjustment Process • Adjustment process: describes changes in the trade deficit that are caused by a change in the exchange rate – For example, depreciation raises the real price of foreign goods, making domestic substitutes more attractive – Depreciation has, however, a time lag – Moreover, the first impact of depreciation may be a J-curve: a deterioration of the current account Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-21 FIGURE 11.7 The J-Curve Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-22 Macroeconomic Policy Coordination • Leading industrial economies coordinate macroeconomic policies in the annual G-5 and G-7 summits – If they jointly decide to expand monetary and fiscal policies, growth in incomes increases the demand for imports, thus raising incomes around the world Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-23 Macroeconomic Policy Coordination (cont.) • However, policy coordination among all countries of the world is difficult – Nations want to guard sovereignty – Nations are reluctant to pursue same policies as trading partners Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 11-24