Download ЗАКУПКА КОНСУЛЬТАЦИОННЫХ УСЛУГ

Russian Economic Report #28,
Autumn 2012
Reinvigorating the
Economy
October 9, 2012
The World Bank, Moscow
Kaspar Richter, Sergey Ulatov
MESSAGES
• The economy performed well early in the year
despite external headwinds.
• But now the economy is slowing.
• Economic policies can reinvigorate the
economy by shoring up stability, building
buffers against external volatility and lifting
growth potential.
Strong First Half of 2012
Growth steady in Russia as recovery slows elsewhere
Quarterly GDP growth, percent
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
2007
2008
2009
Russia
EU Emerg
Source: OECD, IMF, World Bank staff calculations
2010
2011
2012
HI OECD
Oth. Emerg
External surpluses
Percent of GDP (LHS) and Dollar per barrel (RHS)
Source: Rosstat, Economic Expert Group, World Bank staff calculations
Fiscal surplus
Percent of GDP
Source: Economic Expert Group, Ministry of Finance, World Bank staff calculations
Strong domestic demand
Contributions to growth, percent
Source: Rosstat, World Bank staff calculations
Strong non-tradables and agriculture
Growth, Jan to Jun, year-on-year, percent
Source: Rosstat, World Bank staff calculations
Fast credit growth
Credit growth, percent, yoy
Source: CBR, World Bank staff calculations
Strong wage growth
Real wage growth, year-on-year, percent
Source: Rosstat, World Bank staff calculations
Unemployment rate at record low
Percent
10
2.5
9
2.0
8
1.5
7
1.0
6
0.5
5
0.0
2009
2010
Total, SA
2011
Total
Source: Rosstat, World Bank staff calculations
2012
Aug
Registered (RHS)
Poverty at record low
Poverty projections
Source: World Bank staff calculations
Weak outlook
Two oil price scenarios
World Bank average oil price, US$ per barrel
Source: World Bank staff calculations
Growth moderating
GDP growth, percent
Source: World Bank staff calculations
Economy already slowing
Quarterly GDP growth, percent
Source: World Bank staff calculations
Growth of key indicators weaker
Real growth, year-on-year, 3mma, percent
Source: Rosstat, World Bank staff calculations
Rising capacity utilization
Percent
Source: Rosstat, World Bank staff calculations
Real wage growth moderating
Contribution to real wage growth, % y-o-y
Source: Rosstat, World Bank staff calculations
External demand worse
Real growth of world economy, percent
Source: Global Economic Prospects, World Bank staff calculations
Reinvigorating the Economy
Macroeconomic Stability – Keeping inflation in check
Percent, year-on-year
Source: Rosstat, World Bank staff calculations
Building Buffers – Lowering non-oil fiscal deficit
Draft medium-term budget plan, percent of GDP
Source: Ministry of Finance, World Bank staff calculations
Building Buffers – Replenishing oil funds
Percent of GDP
Source: Ministry of Finance, World Bank staff calculations
Structural policy – wages grew faster than productivity
Real excess wage growth over output per worker growth, yoy, percent
Source: Rosstat, World Bank staff calculations
Structural policy – closing the productivity gap
Gap in income, productivity and hours worked to US
Russia
HI OECD
EU Emerg
Oth. Emerg
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Gap in GDP PC to US, %
Gap in GDP Per Hour Worked to US, %
Gap in GDP in Hours Worked PC to US, %
Source: OECD, World Bank staff calculations
20
Structural policy – 2018 policy goals
(a) Fixed investment (% of GDP); (b) High-technology and science-intensive sectors (% of GDP);
(c) Labor productivity (GDP per worker; 2011=100); (d) World Bank Doing Business rank
12
29
11
26
10
23
9
20
8
7
17
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Actual
Target
Actual
150
140
140
120
130
100
120
Target
80
110
60
100
90
40
80
20
70
0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Actual
Target
2011
2013
Actual
2015
2017
Target
Thank you!