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MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK 2010-2015
NATIONAL
TRENDS
MISSISSIPPI
TRENDS
 EMPLOYMENT
 INDUSTRIES
 STATE BUDGET
National Economy in 2010
 Recent profits, equipment spending strong
 Private sector jobs being added
 Inflation not a problem; oil prices moderate
 Exports growing
Stimulus spending slowing
Consumer, business spending tentative
Employment growth slow
Housing not yet on upswing
Toxic assets remain on financial books
Mississippi Economy in 2010
 Housing, financial bubbles less severe
 Job loss slowing, retail sales improving
 Tax revenues stabilizing
 Major projects boost spending
 Some of $2.8 billion stimulus to MS remains
Uncertainties, unemployment impacting
consumers
Construction, manufacturing hit hard
Tax revenues low relative to state budget
Long-term challenges on hold
MS Employment:
Comparing Periods of Contraction
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
Months From Peak Employment: Zero is the Peak
-6
0
6
12
18
Feb 08 - Present
24
30
36
42
48
54
May 2000 - Dec 2007
60
66
72
78
84
90
Jun 80 - Sep 1985
Employment is indexed to month of Peak Employment Level
5
Mississippi versus U.S. Employment Index
Quarterly Data
Employment as % of 2007:Q1 Employment Level
102
Percent
100
MS
US
98
96
94
92 07Q1
08Q1
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
Year
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.
Mississippi Employment Growth
As of July ,Year-to-Date Versus 2009
MISSISSIPPI CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
Year-To-Date 2009-2010
Constr
Manuf
Transport,Util
Leisure,Hosp
Business,Prof
Finance
Mining
Trade
Govt
Health,Social
TOTAL
-10.6
-4.1
-3
-3
-3
-2.4
-1.2
-0.2
0.7
3
-1.5
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
Percentage Change
Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
-2
0
2
4
Mississippi Employment Growth
July 2009 versus July 2010
MISSISSIPPI CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
July 2009 versus July 2010
Constr
Manuf
Leisure,Hosp
Finance
Transport,Util
Trade
Govt
Health,Social
Business,Prof
Mining
TOTAL
-10.1
-2.9
-1.5
-1.3
-0.9
0.6
0.8
1
2.8
7.3
-0.6
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Percentage Change
Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
2
4
6
8
Unemployment Rates, Mississippi Urban Areas
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, STATE AND MSAs,
July 2009 & July 2010
(U.S. 9.5% - July)
Jul-09
Jul-10
11.5%
10.4%
10.0%
9.5%
9.3%
8.2%
Mississippi
Gulfprt-Biloxi
8.6%
Hattiesburg
9.2%
8.9%
8.2%
Jackson
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Pascagoula
Gulf Coast Employment
July 2010 versus August 2005
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
94%
Construction
126%
Manufacturing
LeisureHosplty(G-B)
99%
74%
Transport & Utilities
92%
Retail Trade
113%
Government
60%
103%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Leisure/hsplty employment in G-B down 3.1% versus last July
Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
MS Regains 2000 Employment Level In 2015
EMPLOYMENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF 2000 EMPLOYMENT LEVELS, U.S. &
MISSISSIPPI
108
106
MS
US
104
Percent
102
100
98
96
94
92 1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.
2014
Employment By Sector 2010, MS vs. U.S.
(Percent)
23%
MS
US
20%
17%
16%
13%
13%
11%
11%
10%
8%
4%
0%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4%
4%
Construction Employment, Coast and
Rest of Mississippi, 2005-10
CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
IN STATE AND COASTAL MSA'S
August 2005 = 100
Total
Coast
190
Rest of State
170
150
130
110
90
70
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
MS And US Housing Market
% Change 2007:Q2 – 2009:Q2
SALES EXISTING HOMES, STATE AND U.S. Q2:07 to Q2:09
MS
US
-5%
-17%
-22%
-39%
-63%
Median Price
Sales
-63%
Housing Starts
Mississippi Housing Market
% Change 2009:Q1 – 2010:Q1
SALES EXISTING HOMES, STATE AND U.S.
% Change 2009:Q1 - 2010:Q1
16%
MS
US
10%
-2%
9%
-1%
-27%
Median Price
Sales
Housing Starts
Value of Housing Building Permits
Mississippi, Aug. 2008 - July 2010
Value of Residential Building Permits
($ millions)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
08-09
Apr
09-10
May
Jun
Jul
Foreclosures and Past Due Payments
Mississippi Housing Market
18%
16%
Past Due
14%
In Foreclosure
12%
US
10%
8%
6%
US 4.6% MS 3.0%
foreclosure rate,Q2
4%
2%
0%
J-00
J-01
J-02
J-03
J-04
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.
J-05
J-06
J-07
J-08
J-09
J-10
Major New Projects
Port at Gulfport
Schulz Extruded Products
Enterprise for Innovative
Geospatial Solutions
Twin Creeks Technologies
Toyota Auto Plant
LNG Project
Severstal Expansion
Keesler Air Force Project
Source: Mississippi Authority Development
$570 million
$300 million
$279 million
$175 million
$1.3 billion
$1.1 billion
$500 million
$950 million
Mississippi Retail Sales
August 2008 to July 2010
Retail Sales
$ millions
4,500
4,300
4,100
3,900
3,700
3,500
3,300
3,100
2,900
2,700
2,500
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
08-09
Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.
Jan
Feb
09-10
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Transfers to General Fund
August 2008 to August 2010
General Fund Revenues
600
400
200
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
08-09
Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.
Apr
May
09-10
Jun
Jul
Aug
Growth in General Fund Transfers
FY2009 versus FY2010
Percent Change FY2009 to FY2010
Gaming Fees&Taxes
Indiv Income Tax
-10
-9.2
Sales Tax
-7.3
Corpor Income Tax
-4.6
Use Tax
1.1
Insur Premium Tax
1.4
-5.8
TOTAL G.F. Revenue
-12 -11 -10 -9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Growth in State General Fund Transfers
( August 2009 versus August 2010)
Gaming Fees&Taxes
-2.3
Indiv Income Tax
8.8
Sales Tax
0.3
Corpor Income Tax
147
Use Tax
-4
Insur Premium Tax -28.8
4.1
TOTAL G.F. Revenue
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
Percentage Change
SOURCE: MS Dept of Revenue.
90
110 130 150 170
FY2011
GROSS STATE PRODUCT
$93.1 billion
MISSISSIPPI BUDGET
$19.1 billion
Federal Funds
State-Source Spec. Funds
$9.3 b.
$5.4 b.
State General Fund
$4.4 b.
Source: MS Dept of Finance & Admin.
Economic Forecast 2009 to 2010
(Percent Change)
Growth Rates, Mississippi and US, 2009-10
MS
2.6%
2.6%
US
2.8%
1.9%
0.9%
0.9%
-0.5%
-1.1%
Output
Employment
Personal Income
Inflation
Economic Forecast 2010 to 2011
(Percent Change)
Growth Rates, Mississippi and US, 2010-11
2.9%
3.1%
MS
US
2.2% 2.2%
1.3% 1.4%
0.7%
Output
0.9%
Employment
Personal Income
Inflation
Projected and Past Employment Growth
MS and US
Actual and Projected Annual % Growth of Employment
2.5%
2.0%
MS
US
1.8%
1.4%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-1.0%
2004-2009
2010-2015
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.
Projected and Past Output Growth
MS and US
Actual and Projected Annual % Growth of GSP and GDP
3.5%
3.0%
MS
US
3.1%
2.7%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.8%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2004-2009
2010-2015
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.
Employment Forecast by Sector
(average annual rate of change)
MISSISSIPPI EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
Average Annual Growth Rates 2010-2015
Business,Other Serv
Health & Social Asst
Construction
Transport & Utilities
Manufacturing
Trade
Leisure,Hospitality
Agric, Forest,Fish
Government
Finance, Real Est
Mining
TOTAL
-2.5
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.1
1.9
1.3
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
-1.6
1.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
Source: MS Center for Policy Research and Planning.
1.5
2.5
3.5
WILL THIS CRISIS BE AN
OPPORTUNITY LOST?
 Financial Sector: Transparency &
Accountability
 Restructuring: Health, Energy
 Social Safety Net
 State Budget: Performance-Based
Budgeting, Policymaking Capacity,
Tax Reform
EDUCATION AND THE SKILL GAP
29% of persons in U.S. from 25 to 64 years old have
a bachelor’s degree or higher
Only 20% of persons from 25 to 64 years old in
Mississippi have a bachelor’s degree or higher
SOURCE: U.S. Census and U.S. Monthly Labor Review,
U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2007.
Fighting Poverty: Education and More Required
POVERTY RATES OF ADULTS, AGED 18 - 64,
BY LEVEL OF EDUCATION, M ISSISSIPPI
40.0%
H.S.
36%
B.A.
30.0%
21%
20.0%
12%
10.0%
11%
8%
5%
4%
5%
0.0%
Men, Not
Black
Women, Not
Black
SOURCE: PUMS Dataset, 2000 Census.
Black Men
Black
Women
IN SUMMARY
Starting climb from bottom

Jobs, state revenues stabilizing

US, world growth will be a positive

Major projects on-line
Long-term challenges remain

Ability to innovate, compete

Education, research

State budget, health, energy, social issues
MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC REVIEW
& OUTLOOK
and
MISSISSIPPI’S BUSINESS at
www.mississippi.edu/URC
Join MS Economy Listserve:
contact
[email protected]
University Research Center