Download O29mobile - Civil Contractors Federation

Getting the job done
2011 National Conference
Sofitel. Broadbeach. Qld
20 October 2011
Civil Prospects In An
Uncivil Global Economy
2012 & Beyond
Phil Ruthven, Chairman
WHERE KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
Topics
1.
Our Volatile World
2.
The Australian Economic Scene
3.
The Construction Market At Large
4.
The Engineering Construction Scene
6.
Keys To Success
1.
Our Volatile
World
World GDP Growth
Real growth (PPP), 1950-2012(F)
12
10
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms
8
6
3.2%
-0.7% *
4.1%
3.6% (F)
3.7% (F)
Per cent
4
1950-1969 growth
in US$ market terms
2
0
-2
*
-4
The world decline in 2009 was -2.0% when
measured in $US market price terms
-6
-8
-10
IMF/Economist//IBISWorld: 08/10/11
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
-12
Happy & Unhappy
Countries
Australian Index of Consumer Sentiment
2 months progressive to October 2011
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Happy 65% of last 40 years
73% of last 20 years
Year commencing June
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
Recession Level
Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute (IAESR), IBIS estimates 12/10/11
USA Index of Consumer Sentiment
2 months progressive to August 2011
Happy 48% of last 33 years
Recession Level
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Year commencing June
Source: University of Michigan USA –
UK Index of Consumer Sentiment
2 months progressive to September 2011
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Happy 11% of last 36 years
9% of last 20 years
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Recession Level
Year commencing June
OECD EC Indicator 10/10/11
NZ Index of Consumer Sentiment
2 months progressive to September 2011
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Happy 68% of last 35 years
87% of last 20 years
Year commencing June
Source: Roy Morgan ResearchIBIS estimates 10/10/11
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
Recession Level
The Debt Dilemma
 Four sectors can be in trouble with debt households, financial institutions, government
and businesses – and are capable of triggering
a recession or depression.
 This time around it has been banks (investment,
mortgage and trading) with the sub-prime loans
- and now worthless bonds (Greece et al) together with governments with unsustainable
public debt levels due to uncontrolled deficit
spending and the bailing-out of banks.
 Households and businesses have been
relatively unscathed due to serviceable debt
levels
World Public Debt
2011 (F)
Spain
Netherlands
Mexico
Belgium
Turkey
Sweden
Poland
Greece
S. Korea
Indonesia
1.7%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
PIGS Group
$US terms
Italy
Spain
Greece
Portugal
Ireland
IIceland
21-30th
4.5%
1.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
<0.1%
Highest Debt
Rest of World
India
2.0%
Brazil 2.1%
Canada 2.3%
(199 Nations)
9.2%
28.3%
USA
12.0%
Japan
Australia’s
Public Debt, 24% of GDP
Foreign Debt 46% of GDP
(both manageable)
World’s 229 nations
US$ 54 trillion
88% of GDP(weighted), 60% (simple average)
CIA & IBISWorld 04/07/11
US National Debt
% of GDP
After WWII, many
nations’ debt levels
were over 100%,
including Australia
Highest in the previous
19th Century was
41% of GDP in 1879
The crisis in the
Great Depression
was private debt not
government debt
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
National Debt % GDP
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
IBISWorld 16/05/11
Public Debt 2011F)
20 Largest nations % of GDP
Japan
Italy
USA
France
UK
Germany
Canada
Spain
India
World
Brazil
Turkey
Mexico
Taiwan
Indonesia
S Korea
Australia
Iran
China
Russia
137
Serious trouble
Serious trouble
104
Serious serious
trouble
220
102
Serious trouble
91
85
84
67
65
62
50
45
45
34
33
26
26
23
19
The PIGS Group
Portugal
Italy
Greece
Spain
(Ireland, Iceland)
Virtuous, thanks to the
Howard/Costello government
9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
IBISWorld: 11/09/10
240
Public Debt Interest & Taxes
20 largest nations % of GDP basis
France
Italy
Netherlands
Germany
Brazil
UK
Russia
Spain
Canada
Poland
Australia
USA
S Korea
Japan
Turkey
Mexico
India
China
Taiwan
Indonesia
2011
45
2.8
42
41
7.1
1.6
1.6
39
39
37
37
37
36
4.0
2.4
0.4
3.6
1.9
3.2
1.1
2.0
0.9
2.4
4.1
2.6
5.5
0.8
0.4
12
1.3
11
0
5
Share of GDP
10
34
32
30
29
28
Nominally, Greece with public
debt of 170% of GDP and bond
rates now 22.5% is broke,
needing too much of its taxes
just to pay interest costs.
24
21
Total Tax
18
17
15
(% of GDP)
Interest Paid (% of GDP)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Source: BISWorld 18/09/11
World’s 30 Largest Economies
Netherlands
Argentina
Saudi Arabia
Thailand
S. Africa
Egypt
Pakistan
Colombia
Malaysia
Belgium
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
2011 (F)
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms
Rest of World
(198 nations)
16.1%
19.4%
USA
2.3%
11th – 20th Nations 14.6%
India
3.9%
Mexico
S. Korea
Spain
Canada
Indonesia
Turkey
2.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.8%
1.4%
1.3%
Australia
1.2% 17th
Iran
Taiwan
Poland
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
5.1%
World’s 228 nations
US$ 78.1 trillion
IMF/IBISWorld 08/02/11
Economic Growth: 2012(F)
20 Largest Economies (ppp ranking)
China
India
Indonesia
Russia
Taiwan
S Korea
Brazil
Poland
World
Turkey
Australia
Iran
Mexico
Japan
Canada
USA
UK
Germany
France
Spain
Italy
8.6
8.2
6.3
4.5
4.2
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.2
2.1
1.9
Proviso: USA and EU
adopt realistic budgets
that address public
debt levels
1.3
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
-2
-1
0
1
2
World Growth
2011(f), 37%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
The Economist/IBISWorld 07/10/11
10
The World’s Economic Regions In 2011(F)
Share of World GDP (ppp basis)
North
America
W&C Europe
Eastern
Europe
21.7%
3.7%
Indian
23.3%
ME
5.4%
S-C
6.8%
Africa
C&S
3.9%
Asia
Pacific
28.9%
America
6.3%
2010 World GDP, $US 78.1 trillion
IBISWorld 08/02/11
Asia Economy
Asia Pacific + Indian S-C
ppp terms 2015 (F)
Other A-P
0.3%
Singapore
Vietnam
Philipp
Malaysia
Thailand
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.5%.
2.0%
Other
Indian S-C
3.1%
Greater China
47.9%
India
16.4%
44.0%
China
13.0%
Japan
NZ
0.4%
2.8%
H/K 1.1%
$US 38.9 trillion
(39.8% of world GDP)
Source: Wikipedia/ IBISWorld 18/02/11
Economic Growth: China
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
-20
-24
-28
SSBC/IBISWorld: 18/09/11
2022
2018
2014
2010
2006
2002
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1978
1974
1970
1966
1962
1958
1954
8.2%
average
1950
Per cent
Real growth 1950-2012 (F)
SSBC/IBISWorld:
2018
2014
2010
2006
2002
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1978
1974
1970
1962
1958
1954
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
1966
Real GDP growth 1950-2012 (F)
1950
Per cent
Economic Growth India
18/09/11
Economic Growth Indonesia
2018
2014
2010
2006
2002
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1978
1974
1970
1966
1962
1958
6.0% average
1954
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
1950
Per cent
Real GDP growth 1950-2012 (F)
SSBC/IBISWorld: 18/09/11
Economic Growth Japan
2018
2014
2010
2006
2002
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1.4% pa
1978
1992-2007
3.8% pa
1974
1977-1991
8.5% pa
1970
1961-1976
1966
1962
1958
1954
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
1950
Per cent
Real GDP growth 1950-2012 (F)
SSBC/IBISWorld: 27/09/11
Asia, the place to be
 Australia has integrated its economy and
society into Asia at large and China in
particular
 Asia is a mega-region consisting of the Asia
Pacific and Indian sub-continent. It is the most
powerful region (36% of world GDP) and the
fastest growing.
 Almost 80% of our export of goods & services
now go to Asia
 And Asia dominates steel production, and
manufacturing at large, which use our minerals
World Steel Production
‘000 metric tonnes 1980-2011
2000.0
1800.0
World Iron Ore production capacity in
2010, 2.2 billion tonnes. Vale (18%),
Rio Tinto (13%), BHP Billiton (9%)
1600.0
1400.0
1200.0
1000.0
Rest of
Asia
800.0
600.0
Rest of World
400.0
China
200.0
0.0
India
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: World Steel Association & IBISWorld
Exchange Rate - $US To $A
Monthly average, to September 2011
1.60
1.40
?
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.00
1969
1971
1972
1974
1975
1977
1979
1980
1982
1983
1985
1986
1988
1990
1991
1993
1994
1996
1998
1999
2001
2002
2004
2005
2007
2009
2010
2012
2013
2015
2017
2018
2020
2021
2023
2024
0.20
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia/IBISWorld forecasts
27/0911
Exchange Rate - RMB To $A
Monthly average, to September 2011
10.00
9.00
8.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1969
1971
1972
1974
1975
1977
1979
1980
1982
1983
1985
1986
1988
1990
1991
1993
1994
1996
1998
1999
2001
2002
2004
2005
2007
2009
2010
2012
2013
2015
2017
2018
2020
RMB
7.00
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia/IBISWorld forecasts 27/09/11
2.
The Australian
Economic Scene
Ages Of Economic Progress
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Hunting
Age
Hunting,
trapping,
fishing,
crafts,
religion
Agrarian
Age
Industrial
Age
Agriculture
Mining,
Banking,
Commerce
Manufacturing, Construction
and Utilities dominate the
economy
Transport the
major utility
Electricity, gas & water,
and telephony, the
Industrial Age utilities
Infotronics
Age
Industrial
Age
Service
industries
and IC&T
IC&T the
Infotronics
Age utility
Enlightenment
Age
Quinary service
industries
Imbedded
intelligence,
Neural network
programs
More electronic
“guardian angels”
New technologies
1780
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
SOL (2011 prices, $’000
GDP /capita @ F2011 constant prices 1788-2011
Year, ended June
IBISWorld 26/05/11
Changing Importance of Australian Industry
Share of GDP* by Industry Division
100%
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
Utilities
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transport &storage
Communication
Finance &insurance
Prop &business
Dwelling O'Ship
Govt admin
Education
Accom, cafes &rest
Health &community
Cult &recreation
Personal &other
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Note: *At market prices to 1940, at factor cost thereafter
2050
2040
2020
2000
1980
1960
1940
1920
1900
1880
1860
1840
1820
1800
0%
Source: N.G Butlin, ABS & IBISWorld
28/07/08
Economic Growth
Annual real GDP growth (%) progressed in quarters to
June 2011
(and forecast to June 2016)
9
Average long business cycle is 34 quarters (81/2 years)
8
7
Forecast
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
36 qtrs.
34 qtrs
34 qtrs
33 qtrs
38 qtrs
33 qtrs?
36 qtrs ?
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
-3
Years, ended June
Source: IBISWorld: 07/09/11
The Market Economy
Year to June 2011
Capital
Expenditure
28.1%
Govt.
GBEs
CapEx
GG
Company
CapEx
Consumption
Expenditure
71.9%
Household
Consumption
1 Mainly on behalf of household
2 Incl. inventory change
Gross National Expenditure (GNE)
$1371 billion (current prices)
Source: ABS/IBISWorld 07/09/11
Consumption Expenditure Growth
4 qtr moving average to
Recessions do not occur from collapsing consumption expenditure
(mainly households), but from capital expenditure which does go
severely negative every 8.5 years.
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
June 2011
Source: ABS: 5206-05 07/09/11
Capital Expenditure Growth
4 qtr moving average to
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
June 2011
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Recessions occur when
GFCE falls more than 8%
Years, ended June
Source: ABS5206-06 03/09/11
1860
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Percent
Indicator Lending Rate
Maximum Overdraft Rate 1863-2011
22
20
18
16
Prima facie’
50 year cycles
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Year ended June
IBISWorld 12/04/10
Industries In
Our Economy
Australia’s Industry Mix
Shares of GDP in constant F2009 price terms Year to June 2011
Hospitality
(2.0%)
Pers. & Other Serv.
Cult & Rec. Serv.
Agriculture
Mining
0.8%
2.6%
Utilities
2.0%
9.0%
Govt. Adm. 4.8%
7.3% Construction
O’Ship Dwells. 7.4%
11.3%
Prop. & Business
Services
Finance
& Ins.
3.0%
Sectors
Prof., Scient. & Tech Services 6.4%
Rental, Hiring & Real Estate 2.5%
Admin. & Support Services
2.4%
Communications
& Media
GDP $1308 billion (constant F2009)
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Quaternary
Quinary
Note 1: includes stat. discrepancy (-0.3%)
ABS 5206-26 IBISWorld 07/09/11
Importance of Industries
States & Territories Shares of GSP by Industry Division, F2010
WA
NT
Qld
Tas
SA
Aust
Vic
NSW
ACT
100%
Agriculture
Mining
90%
Manufacturing
80%
Utilities
70%
Wholesale trade
Construction
Retail trade
Transport & Postal
60%
Comm. & Media
Finance &insurance
50%
Prop &business
Dwelling O'Ship
40%
Govt admin
30%
Ind taxes et al
Education
20%
Accom, cafes &rest
Health &community
10%
0%
Cult &recreation
Other Services
184
1
162
244
3
23
4
805
1285
6
301
7
407
8
28
9
GSP $ billion
IBISWorld 31/01/11
Australian Industries Growth
Average % p.a (trend) , 5 years to F2016
Communicns/Media
Health
Prof. & Tech Serv
Transport
Finance & Ins
Construction
Mining
Agriculture
Arts & Recn
GDP
W'Sale Trade
Retail Trade
Other Services
O'Ship Dwellings
Govt Adm & Safety
Rental & Real Est
Ind Taxe-Subs
Educatiion
Admin Services
Utilities
Hospitality
Manufacturing
Percent
value added basis, constant prices
6.2
5.0
4.7
4.3
4.1
4.0
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.4
2.3
2.2
1.2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Source: IBISWorld 18/08/11
3.
The
Construction
Market At Large
The Australian Construction Industry
Growth (% real change in value added, 4qtr moving ave) 1976- June 2011
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
-18
-20
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Major downturns create
the long business cycles
in the economy
(81/2 years)
Year, ended June
ABS: 5206-16 10/10/11
The Australian Construction Industry
By Activity F2011
Buildings
20.2%
Dwellings
51.1%
28.5%
Engineering
Construction
Work Done
$169.6 billion
(excludes special trades services, c.$60 billion)
Australia’s Construction Industry
Work done, by State, year to June 2011
Residential
Building
(% of total Basis)
Engineering
100%
90%
22.8%
25.3%
21.3%
NSW
13.1%
Victoria
27.6%
Qld
80%
70%
60%
32.7%
24.3%
50%
40%
18.3%
21.8%
30%
20%
14.7%
10%
6.0%
14.5%
29.5%
6.7%
5.4%
0%
$48.5 billion
$34.3 billion
$86.8 billion
WA
SA
Tas
ACT
NT
Source: AB 8752-13b & 8762-07
4.
Engineering
Construction
Engineering Construction Growth
4-qtr. moving change (%) current prices, to June 2011
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Work done, year to
June 2011, $86.0 bn.
Year, ended June
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
18 months
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
18 months
Source: ABS 8762-05 11/10/11
Australian Engineering Construction
Work Done to 2011, $ billion (current prices)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
0
1980
$ billion (current prices)
160
Year, ended December
IBISWorld
Engineering Construction By States
Shares of total by states and territories
100%
9.0
11.5
19.2
86.0 Work Done ($ billn.)
NT
ACT
5.2
90%
19.9
21.7
13.6
13.4
23.8
80%
70%
33.1
17.2
60%
21.4
27.6
Queensland
29.3
WA
21.3
NSW
13.1
Victoria
5.5
SA
18.7
50%
33.1
34.8
40%
29.3
28.3
30%
20%
10%
19.0
6.1
18.2
6.4
20.2
5.4
17.9
6.0
0%
2011
2005
1999
1993
1987
Tasmania
Source: ABS Series A&B
10/10/11
Engineering Construction By Type Of Work
Work Done Year to June 2011
Oil & Gas
Coal
Bauxite/ Alum.
Other Minerals
Roads
18.9%
Bridges
1.5%
Railways 7.0%
Harbours 3.9%
Pipelines 2.1%
Other
Recreation
1.1%
Other Heavy 1.0 %
4
3.3%
33.4%
Mining & Other
Transport
34.6%
23.2%
Utilities
$ 86.0 billion
Source: DX8762-11
Engineering Construction By Type Of Work
Work Yet to be Done As at June 2011
Oil & Gas
Coal
Bauxite/ Alum.
Other Minerals
Other Heavy Ind 0.2%
Recreation
0.5%
Roads
Bridges
Railways
Harbours
Pipelines
Other
0.2%
22.9%
Mining & Other
66.4%
9.4%
0.5%
4.8%
4.4%
3.8%
Transport
9.6%
Utilities
Electricity 4.5%
Water
3.3%
Sewerage 1.8%
$ 108.8 billion
Source: DX8762-11
Infrastructure Construction
By Sector, % of total base 1987- 2011
1987 1990 1993
1996 1999
2002 2005 2008 2011
2018
100%
90%
Roads
26.2
30.5
80%
33.6
29.7
25.9
32.5
20.6
14.7
5.2
7.0
3.1
7.2
4.6
60%
Water
6.8
5.3
Sewerage
12.9
50%
40%
14.5
2.7
4.2
30%
20%
10%
13.9
15.6
12.8
9.4
13.2
3.9
3.2
18.6
15.6
16.2
3.9
2.3
3.8
5.7
17.3
4.6
4.2
10.6
12.4
6.4
3.0
8.2
3.3
4.5
6.8
3.6
6.1
10.9 11.5 14.6 19.2
20
Other Min
Other Heavy
11.0
33.1 70.7
Telecom
Coal
34.6
Other
0%
9.0
Recreation
Bauxite
8.3
8.6
Electricity
Oil & Gas
9.7
5.1
4.3
4.1
1.9
14.0
5.0
19.3
19.7
3.2
9.2
4.4
Harbour
Pipelines
4.3
3.7
Bridges
Railways
28.5
5.6
70%
18.9
86
140
Work done ($ billion)
ABS & IBISWorld 10/10/11
Large and/or growing fast
•Mining (China boom)
•Roads (upgrades, population growth)
•Rail (overdue upgrading)
•Telecom (broadband/digitisation)
•Water & Sewerage (desal, reticulation, population growth)
•Harbours & Ports (exports, passenger growth, cruises etc)
•Recreation (inbound tourism, esp. China)
Selected Engineering Activities
Value of work done 1987 to F2011
Value of work done ($ billion )
20.00
19.00
18.00
17.00
16.00
15.00
14.00
13.00
12.00
11.00
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Roads
Rail
Year, ended June
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
Bridges
ABS 8762-11
Selected Engineering Activities
Value of work done 1987 to F2011
5000.00
Value of work done ($ million )
4500.00
4000.00
3500.00
Harbours
3000.00
2500.00
2000.00
Pipelines
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
Year, ended June
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
0.00
ABS 8762-11
Selected Engineering Activities
Value of work done 1987 to F2011
8.00
Value of work done ($ billion )
7.00
6.00
Water
5.00
4.00
Sewerage
3.00
2.00
1.00
Year, ended June
2020
2018
2016
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
0.00
2014
Other Heavy
Industry
ABS/IBISWorld
Selected Engineering Activities
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Electricity
Year, ended June
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
Telecoms
1986
Value of work done ($ billion )
Value of work done 1987 to F2011
ABS 8762-11
Selected Engineering Activities
Value of work done 1987 to F2011
Value of work done ($ billion )
40.00
38.00
36.00
34.00
32.00
30.00
28.00
26.00
24.00
22.00
20.00
18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Year, ended June
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
All Mining
ABS 8762-11
Mining Industry Division Lifecycle
Value added as % of GDP
20
1st Cycle
Gold
18
16
14
2nd Cycle
Gold & Coal
5th Cycle
Energy +
10
4th Cycle
Energy, Iron ore
& gold
8
6
Quarrying
& Coal
3rd Cycle
Gold
4
2
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
1840
1830
1820
1810
0
1800
Percent of GDP
12
Year ended June
IBISWorld 14/03/11
Australia’s Changing Mining Industry Mix
Share of total revenue basis
F1960
30.8%
3.5%
Gold
F1980
F2011 est.
17.4%
18.7%
27.7%
30.1%
Coal & Uranium (0.5%)
25.9%
Iron Ore
4.2%
8.0%
Oil & Gas
14.3%
22.8%
3.7%
3.0%
10.0%
12.2%
2.0%
10.4%
9.7%
5.3%
3.7%
6.3%
Copper
Gold
Nickel
Silver, Lead & Zinc
Other Ores
Construction Materials
Exploration
Contract Mining
8.3%
6.5%
2.6%
3.0%
4.1%
$0.35 billion
$8.8 billion
$183.7 billion
IBISWorld 11/11/10
Selected Engineering Activities
Value of work done 1987 to F2008
10
8
7
Oil & Gas
6
5
Coal
4
3
2
1
Bauxite
Year, ended June
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
0
1986
Value of work done ($ billion )
9
ABS
8762-11
Source:
ABS
Selected Engineering Activities
Value of work done 1987 to F2011
5.00
4.00
3.50
3.00
Recreation
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
Year, ended June
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
0.00
1986
Value of work done ($ million )
4.50
ABS 8762-11
Australia’s International Tourism
Inbound Numbers (‘000) to 2011(F)
12000
11000
Potential
10000
9000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
Inbound
2000
1000
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
0
1925
Number ('000)
8000
Inbound Tourists By Origin
Short term arrivals
F2011
Share of total basis
Asia 65%
Africa
&
M East Other
1.5%
1.9%
20.0%
Other
Oceania
NZ
2.9%
5.4%
6.1%
Singapore
11.4%
Japan
C& S
America
0.5%
5.9 million
China is expected to
be the biggest single
source of tourists well
before 2020
(Value $34.4 billion)
Source: ABS 3401-04
Changing Of The Guard
China
NZ, 2011
1.2 mm
(No 1)
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
Japan
1982
3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1980
Inbound tourists (’000)
Inbound Tourists (‘000)
Year, ended December
Source: IBISWorld/ABS 29/09/11
6.
Keys To Success
Australian Profitability By Major Industries
Return on Shareholder Funds (after tax),
Mining
Retail Trade
Communications
Hospitality
Finance & Ins
Construction
W'Sale Trade
Average
Prop & Bus Serv
Agriculture
Other Services
Utilities
Cult & Recn Serv
Manufacturing
Education
Health
Transport
Government Admin.
Percent
Top 1350 businesses
5 years to F2010
29.2
22.2
21.0
17.3
17.2
14.7
14.1
12.2
11.2
9.7
9.6
8.6
8.1
7.1
4.9
Includes private and
government enterprises
4.9
4.1
8.2
3.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
Source: IBISWorld 22/11/10
Australian Profitability Of The Best 100
Best 100 5 years to F2010
Return on Shareholder Funds (after tax),
Transport
4 companies
Prop & Bus Serv
16 companies
Cult & Recn Serv
3 companies
85.4
69.6
79.8
1 company
Healh
Finance & Ins
9 companies
Manufacturing
21 companies
63.8
57.5
57.5
Average of Best 100
58.2
Retail Trade
10 companies
Construction
6 companies
Wholesale Trade
23 companies
Other Services
54.0
52.5
49.0
4 companies
Communications
1 company
Education
1 company
0
10
Is there really such a thing as
a bad industry, or only some
industries with a lot of bad
practices and managers?
51.6
1 company
Mining
Percent
56.1
This chart suggests good
leaders can be successful in
any industry.
42.2
41.6
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Source: IBISWorld 25/02/11
The Big Construction Groups
Enterprise
Revenue
($bill)
1. Leighton
ROSF (%)
F2011
3 Yr Ave
(J’11)
15.9
-17.6
8.3
2. Lend Lease (J’11)
9.2
10.2
-1.0
3. Downer EDI (J’11)
6.7
19.6
-5.2
4. Worley Parsons (J’11)
5.7
19.6
19.7
5. Valemus
(D’09)
3.9
12.1
13.0
6. UGL
(J’11)
4.3
13.5
12.9
7. Macmahons (J’11)
1.1
0.3
5.7
Total /Average
46.8
3.52
6.72
2 Weighted average
What the Best Enterprises Are Doing
1. They stick to one business at a time and do not diversify
2. They aim to dominate some segment (s) of their market
3. They are forever innovative, valuing the business’ IP.
4. They outsource non-core activities to enable growth.
5. They don’t own “hard” assets.
6. They have good and professional financial management.
7. They plan from the outside-in not the inside-out
8. They anticipate any new industry lifecycle changes.
9. They follow world best practice for their own type of business.
10. They develop strategic alliances.
11. They develop unique organisational cultures.
12. They value leadership first and management second.
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