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The Outlook for Energy
A View to 2030 & Impact
Of Global Geopolitics
Florida International University
29th Annual Journalist & Editors Workshop
on Latin America and the Caribbean
“Latin America’s Energy Future”
Presented by:
Dr. Eduardo G. Del Valle
EGDV CONSULTANTS, INC
Miami, May 5, 2011
Energy sources evolve; new technologies have
huge influence on both supply and demand
Global Demand By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
700
Standard of living improved dramatically over past
century driven by technology and abundant energy. By
2030 demand projected at 6 times 1950 level with
increasing diverse energy mix; GDP 20 times 1950 level
1901- First gasolinepowered automobile mass
produced
500
300
Other Renewables
Nuclear
600
400
1980 – First U.S.
windfarm consisting of 20
turbines built in New
Hampshire
1884- First steam turbine
Hydro
Gas
1954 – Modern silicon
solar cell invented
Oil
1859- First oil well drilled
in Titusville, PA
200
Coal
100
Biomass
0 1800
1850
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil
1900
1950
2000
Energy Outlook Basis
100 countries
15 demand
sectors
20 fuel
types
technology & policy
3
Geopolitical Forces/Conflicts that Impact Outlook
• Resource nationalism is making access to new reserves more
difficult and/or more costly
•
•
Revolution in communications is increasing societal expectations in
less developed countries and social pressures for more freedom and a
better life are building
•
•
•
•
Examples: Russia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, some African countries
400 million Chinese with capacity to move from bicycle to vehicles. From
cooking with wood to cooking with electricity
India will follow
Cumulative environmental impact?
Chinese oil companies aggressiveness in pursuit of new energy
reserves is pre-empting Western Oil companies from economically
accessing new supplies.
•
•
Prrivate sector companies cannot compete with promises of additional Chinese
government assistance for economic and social development
Up to now Western government have abastained from reacting, but will this
posture last?
Geopolitical Forces/Conflicts that Impact Outlook
•
The complex corporate social difficulties that arise working in unstable
political/social environments that are prone to corruption and human
rights violations
•
•
•
Combination of producing countries budgetary pressures coupled with
climate change uncertainties are making longer term planning and
capital investment decisions increasingly complex and risky
•
•
•
•
What is the appropriate responsibility of oil companies to ensure that human
rights are respected and the monies generated from their investment are properly
channeled for economic development
Should Western democracies develop legal protocols to assist oil companies in
these complex balancing acts
Non-Opec production has been unable to keep up with growth in demand– not a
good sign
Legal and regulatory framework: Climate change lesgislation, subsidies,
environmental restrictions, government mandates and taxation
Middle East Instability – where will it lead?
There is no known technology today that is expected to have any major
impact in altering the projected energy mix by 2030
Population + Improved Standard of living
Drives Energy Demand Growth
Population
GDP
Energy Demand
Billion
18
Trillion 2005$
100
Average Growth / Yr.
2005 – 2030
2.8%
Quadrillion BTUs
1200
Average Growth / Yr.
2005 – 2030
1.2%
1000
15
Average Growth / Yr.
2005 – 2030
0.9%
80
800
12
60
600
9
40
6
400
20
3
0
1980
2005
2030
200
0
1980
2005
6
2030
0
1980
2005
2030
Economic Growth Fastest in Non-OECD
GDP
Trillion 2005$
100
China and India grow at 6%/yr
Average Growth / Yr.
2005-2030
Other Non OECD
Africa
Middle East
80
Non OECD
Latin America
India
60
4.9%
~ 40% of GDP
by 2030
China
Other OECD
40
OECD
Europe OECD
2.0%
20
United States
0
1980
Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
2005
2030
Expanding Economies Drive demand up by 35%
OECD
Non OECD
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
450
450
OECD energy demand flat due to
increased energy efficiency, even as
GDP rises 60%
Non OECD demand up > 70%.
Higher electricity demand and
increased vehicle ownership due to
rising prosperity
Other
300
300
Africa
Middle East
Other
Latin America
150
150
India
Europe OECD
China
United States
0
1980
2005
2030
0
1980
2005
2030
Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
Demand by Sector --Efficiency is key
Demand would have grown by 84 MBDOE were not for efficiency
gains
Quadrillion BTUs
300
300
1.7%
250
2030
Transportation consumes
70% of oil demand
200
0.9%
2005
167
150
1.3%
100
0.3%
50
0
Transportation
Industrial
Res/Comm
PowerGen
9
Growth
Savings
Energy Efficiencies to Accelerate
Efficiency gains saves 55 MBDOE
Rate of energy efficiency improvements expected to dramatically accelerate
by 50% driven by higher prices and advances in technology
Source: Energy Information Administration
Transportation Demand Grows 40%
Demand Growth heavily concentrated in Asia.
MBDOE
Rising personal income produces
steep increase in vehicle ownership,
70
up by 80% by 2030
Light Duty Demand
MBDOE
30
400 million vehicles more than today,
but demand offset by efficiency gains
Rail
60
Marine
Aviation
40
30
Commercial
50
20
Non OECD
Heavy Duty
10
20
Light Duty
0
1980
2005
2030
Personal
10
OECD
0
1980
2005
2030
Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
Electricity Demand will grow by 80%
By Sector
By Region
k TWh
k TWh
30
30
Transportation
Demand will grow 150% in NonOECD
in conjunction with broader
prosperity and rising income
Commercial
20
20
Non OECD
Residential
Other
Industry
10
10
OECD
Heavy Industry
0
1980
2005
2030
0
1980
2005
2030
Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
Future U.S. Power Costs
Baseload, Startup 2025
2010 cents/kWh
20
$30/ton
$60/ton
$0/ton CO
CO22
PV
15
Thermal
10
5
0
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Wind
Coal-CCS
13
Gas-CCS
GeoThermal
Solar
Power Generation Mix Evolves
Global Capacity Utilized
By Generation
GW
k TWh
800
35
Wind
700
30
Nuclear
600
25
Gas
500
20
400
Coal
15
300
Solar
10
200
Nuclear
Wind & Solar
5
100
Other Renewables
0
1980
0
'05
'30
'05
'30
'05
'30
14
Oil
2005
2030
Power Generation by Fuel
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
140
140
140
120
120
100
100
Natural Gas and Coal will
show the greatest growth.
90% of new power gen in
China will be from Coal.
A big impediment and
source of conflict with the
objective to reduce GHG.
120
Renewables
100
Nuclear
80
80
80
60
60
60
Coal
40
40
40
20
20
20
Gas
0
1980
2005
2030
Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
0
1980
2005
2030
Oil
0
1980
2005
2030
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
By Region
Emissions per Capita
Billion Tons
Tons per Person
40
20
30
15
Energy related CO2 emissions in
Non-OECD countries exceed by
2010 40% those of OECD, and are
doubling those of OECD by 2030
2005
2030
Other Non OECD
India
20
10
China
10
5
OECD
0
1980
0
2005
2030
United
States
Europe
OECD
China
India
Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
Global Demand by Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
250
Oil, Gas and Coal will still provide over
80% of total energy demand by 2030
World Average Growth/Yr.
’05 to ’30 – 1.2%
0.7%
200
2.0%
2030
150
0.7%
2005
100
0.4%
50
2.3%
2.1%
9.9%
Hydro/Geo
Wind, Solar,
Biofuels
0
Oil
Gas
Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
Coal
Biomass/Other
Nuclear
Global Liquids
Liquids Supply
Average Growth / Yr.
2005 – 2030
MBDOE
120
Dependence on OPEC will
continue to grow
0.8%
2030
Liquids Demand
OPEC
90
~36
~35
Biofuels
~29
60
~27
OPEC Crude
NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other
Canadian Oil Sands
30
Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate
Supply
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
18
2020
2030
Non-OPEC
2005
Development Challenges and Solutions
Increase
World development continues, while lives improve and economies grow
Efficiency
8 billion people
100% increase in global GDP
35% increase in energy demand
300 quadrillion BTUs saved via efficiency
or equivalent to 55 MBDOE
Mitigate
Emissions
All reliable, affordable
energy supplies needed
19
Expand
Supplies