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Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Macro views • General discussion of productivity program – What is productivity? – How is it measured? – Why is it important? – How is it used in the growth accounting framework? – Challenges 2 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division What is productivity? • Productivity is a concept that measures the efficiency with which resources (labour, capital, other inputs) are employed to produce goods and services (or output) • The growth in productivity captures the extent to which the growth in output exceeds the growth in resources devoted to production 3 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division How to measure productivity? • Two ways to measure the efficiency of resources • The first way is to measure the productivity of one resource at a time, what is termed a partial productivity measure • For example, labour productivity, capital productivity, energy productivity • Of which, labour productivity is the most popular, measured approximately by real output growth minus growth of hours worked 4 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Why is productivity important? “Over long periods of time, small differences in rates of productivity growth compound, like interest in a bank account, and can make an enormous difference to a society's prosperity. Nothing contributes more to reduction of poverty, to increases in leisure, and to the country's ability to finance education, public health, environment and the arts.” Alan Blinder and William Baumol. 1993. Economics: Principles and Policy. (p.778). San Diego: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. 5 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Why is productivity important? • GDP growth can be decomposed into that coming from the application of more resources and that coming from increases in productivity 6 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Over the last 25 years, for every percent of Canada's economic growth, labour productivity has contributed for nearly half of it... 4.0 3.5 Labour productivity Hours worked 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.9 1981 to 2004 1981 to 1988 1988 to 2000 2000 to 2004 7 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Partial productivity measures • Advantage: Easy to understand. • Disadvantage: Increases in productivity may be interpreted to be coming from increases in efficiency in the use of the resource but may simply be arising from a substitution between different resources (the use of more capital). And that substitution may not have resulted in an overall saving of resource inputs. 8 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division More comprehensive measures • Second method to measure the efficiency of resources considers all resources together—multifactor productivity (MFP) • Real output growth minus a weighted average of the growth of combined inputs (labour and capital) 9 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division What is MFP? • Multifactor productivity is the difference between the actual increase in output and the increase in output that would have been expected on the basis of existing technology from increases in multiple factors (both labour and capital—and perhaps other factor inputs). 10 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Measurement of Multifactor Productivity • Imposition of structure (production framework) • Use of analytical technique or specific assumptions about the economy to measure parameters associated with the structure 11 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division More comprehensive measures • Advantage: A broader and more comprehensive measure of productivity-referred to by The Economist as a “better’ measure • Disadvantage: more complex to understand, more complex to estimate—requires certain assumptions or more complex statistical estimation procedures to obtain the weights used to aggregate the various inputs • Analysis used to examine the sensitivity of MFP estimates to alternate approaches 12 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Questions posed in the growth accounting framework • • • • • What has been the history of productivity growth over the period? What types of capital are used in the growth process? What types of labour are used in the growth process? What was the relative contribution of capital, labour and productivity growth to economic growth? How important are the various factors that determine the growth in labour productivity? Is capital deepening the prime contributor to labour productivity growth? 13 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Trend in the aggregate productivity growth percent per year 12.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 -4.0 -8.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 years Output Labour productivity Multifactor productivity 14 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division The growth accounting framework • Labour productivity growth is decomposed into MFP growth, changes in capital deepening, changes due to upgrading of labour skills (referred to as labour composition) 15 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Sources of Labour Productivity Growth (Business Sector) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1961 to 2005 1961 to 1973 1973 to 1979 Labour composition 1979 to 1988 Capital intensity 1988 to 2000 2000 to 2005 Multifactor productivity 16 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Challenges Quality (Criteria) – Accuracy – Coherency – Relevance – Interpretability 17 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division The Productivity Program • Regular product of the National Accounts • Builds on the integrated National Accounts and then adds coherent estimates of labour and capital • Provides quality assurance through consistency checks and development of coherent data series. • Provides analytical output as quality check and to facilitate interpretability 18 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Challenges Concept – Analytical construct – Externality or Residual – Macro level approach 19 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Challenges Measurement Issues – Estimates of Growth in Volumes – Business as Opposed to Non-Business – Comprehensiveness of Input List (Infrastructure, Non-tangible assets) – Provision of confidence intervals to guide users on quality 20 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Challenges Relevance Focus –primarily on domestic growth Users requesting international comparisons 21 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division U.S./ Canada Labour Productivity Growth Comparison • Trend comparisons 22 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Canada and US growth trend similar for GDP Real GDP Trend, Business Sector (1961=100) 500 400 Canada United States 300 200 100 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 23 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Canada and US growth trend similar for both GDP and hours worked Hours at Work, Business Sector (1961=100) Canada United States 200 150 100 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 24 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Canada and US growth trend similar for Labour Productivity Labour P roductivity Trend, Business Sector (1961=100) 250.0 225.0 Canada United States 200.0 175.0 150.0 125.0 100.0 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 25 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division U.S./ Canada Labour Productivity Growth Comparison • Level Comparisons 26 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division U.S./ Canada Level Comparison • Labour productivity – Harmonization of labour measures • Multifactor Productivity – Harmonization of capital measures 27 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Canada/US relative GDP per capita, labour productivity, and work intensity (total economy) 100 90 GDP per capita Labour productivity 85 Work intensity 80 75 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 70 1994 U.S. = 100 95 Year 28 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division U.S./ Canada Labour Productivity Growth Comparison • Component Comparisons – Multifactor versus capital intensity versus skill upgrading 29 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Post 2001 collapse Figure 1: Relative Canada/U.S. Labour Productivity Level in the Business Sector, 1961-2005 (1961-100) 120 100 80 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 30 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Growth rate differences Trend in Canada-U.S. Difference in Growth of MFP, Capital Intensity and Labour Compositon (% ) HP Filter (Lamda=100) 2 1 0 1961 -1 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 -2 -3 MFP Grow th Capital Intensity Grow th Labour Composition Grow th 31 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division U.S./ Canada Labour Productivity Growth Comparison • Pre and post 2000 experience 32 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Import and Export Prices Price Indices (2005=100) 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 1981 1983 1985 1987 Px 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Pm 2003 2005 33 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Terms of Trade Terms of Trade 1.22 Exchange Rate 0.90 1.17 0.85 1.12 0.80 1.07 0.75 1.02 0.70 0.97 0.65 0.92 0.60 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Terms of Trade $US/$CDN 34 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Relative Price Changes Durables/semi-Durables (Index 2002=100) 104 Non-Durables (Index 2002=100) 125 102 120 115 100 110 98 105 96 100 94 95 92 90 85 90 88 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Durables Semi-Durables Non-Durables 80 75 35 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Relative Economic Performance: Canada vs. US Index 1998=100 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 1980 1982 1984 1986 Labour Productivity 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 Real GDP Per Capita 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Real NNI per capita 36 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Provincial Program: Labour Productivity 1997-2006 % 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Canada B.C. Alta. Sask. Man. Ont. Labour productivity growth Que. N.B. N.S. P.E.I. N.L. National average 37 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Nominal value of GDP per capita, 2003 60,000 54,075 50,000 40,346 40,000 35,243 33,856 36,749 38,495 35,041 32,708 28,106 30,883 29,900 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Canada 38 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division GDP per capita, labour productivity and labour effort Q u e be c Canada=100 150 100 50 0 GDP per capit a GDP per hours worked 1990 1997 Hours worked per pop 15+ 2003 39 Productivity Micro-economic Analysis Division Micro views • Firm dynamics and productivity • Heterogeneous actors (small, multinationals) • Technology use and productivity • Structural change and productivity • Firm strategies, innovation and productivity • The source of externalities—urban agglomeration 40