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WHAT’S WRONG WITH RUSSIAN IFLATION? A. Illarionov, CATO Institute, Washington, USA Institute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, Russia American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, December 18, 2007 © CATO Institute, Institute of Economic Analysis www.cato.org, www.cato.ru, www.iea.ru Inflation forecasted and actual: Authors/Years 2007 Ministry of Economy Central Bank 7,0-8,0 6,5-8,0 6-7 6-7 11,6 ? Actual in November 2007 2 2008 © ИЭА Annual CPI and other inflation indices, % 3 © ИЭА Annual CPI and its components, % 4 © ИЭА Food or budget? Structural or macroeconomic? 5 © ИЭА Price of food so far did not deviate significantly from the price trends of other commodities. 6 © ИЭА Annual indices of M2 and Inflation with lags from 18 to 25 months. 7 © ИЭА Russia is at 21st place among 180 countries by annual CPI index in 1999-2006. 8 © ИЭА Russia is at 2nd place among 180 countries by increase in US dollar prices in 1999-2006. 9 © ИЭА Russia is at 3rd place among 180 countries by increase in real effective exchange rate (comparative prices) in 1999-2006. 10 © ИЭА Russia is at 9th place among 165 countries by annual broad money supply growth rate in 1999-2006. 11 © ИЭА Russia is at 13th place among 161 countries by budget balance as % of GDP in 1999-2006. 12 © ИЭА But it is only at 133rd place among 146 countries by non-oil & non-gas budget balance as % of GDP in 2006. 13 © ИЭА Federal government non-interest expenditures as % of GDP has almost doubled from 2000 to 2007. 14 © ИЭА