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US-ASIAN RELATIONS READINGS: COX AND STOKES CH 14, PACKARD, HEGINBOTHAM ET AL, ECONOMY AND SEGAL, PEI, CARTER CH 12 Guiding Questions What challenges did Asian politics present to US foreign policy in the post WW2 era? What is the state of US-Japanese foreign relations? What is the state of US-Chinese foreign relations? Patterns in US-Asian Foreign Policy Cox 2008 US international postwar goals were three-fold: 1) restore conditions necessary for a strong international economy 2) limit/constrain communism 3) incorporate defeated states; balance those opposed to US East Asian political realities complicated these tasks 1) European colonialism 2) Japanese aggression 3) Economic collapse 4) Chinese revolution 5) US military interventions But a VERY unstable region has become relatively stable US played a role in this stability US-Japanese Relations Cox 2008 Post WW2 relations governed by a series of “understandings” 1) Japanese subordination to US in exchange for American security guarantees 2) Japanese government would focus on improving economic resources Government agrees to limit military spending and disavows any future attempt to get WMD’s Access to US markets 3) Japanese policy would never run counter to US policy within the region Despite some “bumps” relationship continues without much change Election of the DPJ appeared to alter the dynamic Patterns in Japanese Foreign Policy STRUCTURAL FACTORS Power End of Cold War increased uncertainty in a chaotic region Japanese military forces (SDF) constrained Interdependence Economic relationship with Asian countries and the US Military dependence on the US Can cause friction Ideas Pacifism, anti-militarism Trade military autonomy for economic growth Yoshida Doctrine POLITICAL FACTORS LDP dominance eclipsed in last election LDP reflexive support for US alliance weakened under DPJ Strong role for bureaucracy in policymaking (MITI) Lack of transparency under attack by DPJ government Public opinion can strain alliance appeals Use of SDF outside of Japan Okinawa and Futenma Current State of US-Japanese Relations Packard 2010 Election of the DPJ creates questions about the “Yoshida Doctrine” Long term frustrations (US forces on Okinawa, unequal partnership, etc.) have come to the forefront US frustrations regarding Japanese unwillingness to assist in conflict further complicates the relationship The left wing has always been more comfortable raising these issues Relationship is still valuable: Japan gets economic gains while the US gets access to Asian bases Rising China also motivates continued cooperation between US and Japan DPJ government wants the US to reduce its “footprint” Debates and delays over Futenma/Okinawa creates unnecessary complications US must work with Tokyo to alleviate these concerns Japan should work with the US to reduce concerns about free riding Current State of U.S.-Japanese Relations Heginbotham et al. 2011 Tsunami provided opportunities for the US and Japan to appear united But ignores that Japanese politics is undergoing significant change DPJ vs. LDP Decline of the MITI Economic stagnation At a time of political transformation, maintaining the relationship can be difficult “Host nation support” is becoming more difficult for Japanese governments to justify Fear of Chinese aggression can promote unity The US can work with the DPJ Use the SDF as a global disaster relief force That said, US should remain flexible: keep options open in South Korea, Australia, etc. Transition to Chinese Hegemony? Militarily, the US far outspends its rivals Economically, some contend that the “rise of the rest” threatens US hegemony Biggest focus: China Inevitable: Power measured by GDP China is No. 2. China will pass the United States in coming decades. Questionable: GDP is a flawed measure? Does not predict the impact of China's immense poverty problem. China's GDP per capita is nowhere close to that of the U.S. US far outspends the Chinese on military resources. Power Transition Theory The rise of a new hegemon associated with instability Power transition theory often cited Example: Austria-Hungary and WW1 A.F.K. Organski 1968 Predicted the world leadership position would pass from U.S. to China. Predicted that once China did catch the United States in terms of power, there would likely be conflict, and possibly war. This was the beginning of power transition theory: When the most powerful state is challenged by some secondranked state, conflict is likely. Counterargument: History does not always bear this out: UK/US Taiwan: Potential Powder Keg Ray 2008 Island to which the defeated nationalists fled in 1949. China considers Taiwan a rogue province. Could spark tension between the US and China. United States agrees that there is only one China. But sells military hardware to Taiwan. And has made promises to defend Taiwan. Some movement in Taiwan toward independence. China would oppose with force. Would the U.S. defend? Chinese Foreign Policy Goals STRUCTURAL FACTORS Power Size and location make it a player Triangulation throughout the Cold War. Resurgence of triangulation? Interdependence Growing involvement in international institutions. Anger at encroachments on Chinese sovereignty. US-Chinese economic interdependence critical for modernization Ideas Separate economics from domestic politics/human rights. Avenge “century of humiliation” and legacy of Western imperialism. Maintain a unified Chinese territory (i.e. hold Tibet, regain Taiwan, etc.) POLITICAL FACTORS Communist party leaders make key decisions. “Vertical and dual rule” by the Communist party. Divisions between the “reds” and the “experts” Role for bureaucrats to shape “minor” policies. Public opinion: less repressed then previously the case. Domestic political powder keg: Chinese nationalism can be tough for politicians to tame. US-Chinese Preferences US-Chinese cooperation is seen as critical to global economics, environmental action, terror, etc. Economic interdependence seen as critical basis for cooperation Economy and Segal 2009 US and China see economics AND politics very differently. Privileging a G-2 relationship overlooks these fundamental differences. US should engage China; but should do so in tandem with America’s traditional allies. Conclusions: Hyping American Decline and Asia’s Rise? Pei 2009 1) Power is shifting towards Asia Not quite; The rise of China would result in multipolarity at most. China does not spend anything near as much on military resources as the US. 2) Asian rise is unstoppable China is facing a major demographic crunch; population is aging. Corruption coupled with a focus on export led growth will hurt in the long run. 3) Asian capitalism is more ‘dynamic’ than Western capitalism Asian growth is predicated on initial weakness. Government control stifles innovation; education does not emphasize independent thinking. Lack of a social safety net forces savings. Conclusions: Hyping Asia’s Rise? Pei 2009 4) China will dominate Asia China’s rise will prompt counterbalancing by Russia, Japan, and India. China has internal tensions it has to contend with. 5) America is losing influence in Asia US democracy has shown an ability for self correction Many Asian countries believe that the US can be a force for good in balancing Beijing. Next Unit If You’re Interested…. Pomeranz. The Great Divergence Europe/China and the Industrial Revolution Sanger. The Inheritance Shirk. China: Fragile Superpower Next Unit: Theme: US/Russian Relations Cox and Stokes CH 13 Beasley CH 5 Simes (Foreign Affairs-November/December 2007) King (Foreign Affairs-November/December 2008)