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MPR 2009 February 11-02-2009 Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages 7 7 90% 75% 50% Repo rate 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: The Riksbank Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data 5 5 90% 75% 50% CPI 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Sweden statistics and the Riksbank Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 90% 75% 50% GDP -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 4 Economic indicators in the Euro area Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 118 114 110 106 102 98 94 90 86 82 78 74 70 66 OECD Composite Leading Indicators (left scale) European Commission Economics Sentiment (right scale) 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Sources: European Commission and OECD Figure 5. Consumer confidence in the USA University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, index 115 105 115 Consumer confidence M ean 1952-2009 105 95 95 85 85 75 75 65 65 55 55 45 45 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 Sources: European Commission and OECD 6. Liquidation and redundancy notices in Sweden Thousands 220 22 Liquidation (right scale) Redundancy notices 200 180 20 18 160 140 16 14 120 100 12 10 80 60 8 6 40 20 4 2 0 0 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Sources: ITPS and Statistics Sweden Figure 7. Companies' new borrowing from Swedish banks Billion SEK respective annual percentage change 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 -20 jul-06 -20 jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 Source: Statistics Sweden Figure 8. Policy rates Per cent Sweden USA United Kingdom Norway Euro area 8 7 6 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: Reuters EcoWin Figure 9. GDP abroad TCW-weighted, annual percentage change 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 Source: Consensus Figure 10. Consensus and the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP growth in 2009 Annual percentage change 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 08jan Euro area Asia Latin America Japan USA Eastern Europe -1 -2 -3 08mar 08maj 08jul 08sep 08nov 09jan Source: Consensus Figure 11. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel, future price 140 140 Oil price, outcome Futures. average up to and including 4 February 120 120 Futures December 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank Figure 12. Commodity prices USD, index, year 2000=100 Food 350 350 M etals Other agricultural products 300 300 Total 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: The Economist Figure 13. GDP for the USA and the euro area Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data 8 8 USA forecast 6 Euro area forecast 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Figure 14. Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP USA Level, Index=100 in the quarter preceding the beginning of the recession 112 2008 Q 1 112 110 2001 Q4 110 1990 Q3 108 108 1973 Q4 106 106 M ean (from 1947) 104 104 102 102 100 100 98 98 96 96 94 94 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research and Figure 15. Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP Euro area Level, Index=100 in the quarter preceding the beginning of the recession 110 110 1974 Q3 108 1980 Q1 108 106 1992 Q1 106 2008 Q2 104 104 1980 102 102 100 100 98 98 96 96 94 94 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Source: Eurostat, OECD and the Riksbank Seasonally-adjusted data and net figures 70 140 65 130 60 120 55 110 50 100 45 90 40 80 Japan China Russia India South Korea (right scale) 35 30 25 70 60 50 40 20 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Sources: NTC Economics and the Federation of Korean Industries Figure 17. Exports and new export orders Annual percentage changes, seasonally-adjusted data 35 35 Orders received, export market Exports 30 25 30 25 20 15 20 15 10 5 10 5 0 -5 0 -5 -10 -15 -10 -15 -20 -20 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Note. Three-month moving average. Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 18. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data 8 December February 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 19. Consensus and the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP growth in Sweden 2009 at different points in time Annual percentage change 3.0 The Riksbank Consensus 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -2.0 -2.0 Jan 08 M ar 08 M ay 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Sources: Consensus and the Riksbank Figure 20. Development of GDP in different regions Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 Sweden USA Euro area TCW -2 -3 -4 -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 07 08 09 10 11 12 Note. TCW entails weighted GDP for Sweden's main trading partners. Figure 21. Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP Sweden Level, Index=100 in the quarter preceding the beginning of the recession 115 115 2008 Q1 2000 Q3 1996 Q1 1990 Q2 110 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 90 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 22. TCW exchange rate Index, 18.192=100 150 150 TCW-index TCW-forecast February 145 145 TCW-forecast December 140 140 135 135 130 130 125 125 120 120 04 05 06 07 08 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. 09 10 11 12 Source: The Riksbank Figure 23. Exports Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data 20 20 December February 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 24. Household’s disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income 8 16 Consumption (left scale) Disposable income (left scale) Saving ratio (right scale) 7 14 6 12 5 10 4 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 25. Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data 5000 4800 4600 5000 Labour force 15-74 year Labour force 16-64 year 4800 Employed 15-74 year Employed 16-64 year 4600 4400 4400 4200 4200 4000 4000 3800 3800 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 26. Employment rate Employment as a percentage of the population, 16-64 year, seasonally-adjusted data 84 84 Employment rate 82 82 December February 80 80 78 78 76 76 74 74 72 72 70 70 80 85 90 95 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. 00 05 10 15 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 27. Unemployed Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 2 Unemployment 16-64 year Unemployment 15-74 year February 4 2 December 0 0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 28. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data 5 HP-trend Forecast, December Forecast, February 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 29. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change 7 Labour costs per hour Productivity Unit labour costs 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 30. Estimated gaps Percentage deviation from the HP trend 5 5 GDP Hours worked Employment 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 80 85 90 95 00 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources 05 10 15 Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 31. CPI, CPIF and CPIX Annual percentage change 5 5 CPI CPIF CPIF excl. energy 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 32. Repo rate forecasts on different assumptions Per cent, quarterly averages 5 5 February December 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 04 05 06 07 08 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. 09 10 11 12 Source: The Riksbank Figure 33. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages 4 Real repo rate 4 3 February December 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: The Riksbank Figure 34. CPI Annual percentage change 5 5 90% 75% 4 4 50% February 3 3 December 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 35. CPIF Annual percentage change 4 4 February December 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 36. Repo rate assumptions Per cent, quarterly averages 5.0 5.0 4.5 M ain scenario 4.5 4.0 Higher repo rate 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 04 05 06 07 08 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. 09 10 11 12 Source: The Riksbank Figure 37. GDP Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 Higher repo rate -2 -3 M ain scenario -3 04 05 06 07 08 09 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources: 10 11 12 Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 38. CPI Annual percentage change 5 5 Higher repo rate 4 4 M ain scenario 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 04 05 06 07 08 09 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources: 10 11 12 Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 39. Production gap (GDP) Percentage deviation from the HP trend 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 Higher repo rate -4.0 M ain scenario -5.0 -5.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 40. Labour market gap (hours worked) Percentage deviation from the HP trend 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 Higher repo rate -3.0 -4.0 M ain scenario -4.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 41. GDP abroad TCW-weighted, annual percentage change 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 M ain scenario Weaker growth Stronger growth -2 -2 -3 -3 04 05 06 07 08 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. 09 10 11 12 Sources: National sources and the Riksbank Figure 42. GDP Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 Weaker growth Stronger growth M ain scenario -4 04 05 06 -4 07 08 09 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources: 10 11 12 Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 43. Production gap (GDP) Percentage deviation from the HP trend 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 Weaker growth Stronger growth M ain scenario -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -6.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 44. Labour market gap (hours worked) Percentage deviation from the HP trend 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 Weaker growth -2.0 Stronger growth -3.0 M ain scenario -4.0 -4.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 45. CPI Annual percentage change 6 6 Weaker growth Stronger growth M ain scenario 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 04 05 06 07 08 09 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources: 10 11 12 Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 46. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages 5.0 5.0 M ain scenario Weaker growth Stronger growth 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 04 05 06 07 08 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. 09 10 11 12 Source: The Riksbank Figure 47. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 M ain scenario Weaker growth Stronger growth -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: The Riksbank Figure 48. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 1992-11-18=100 145 145 Weaker growth Stronger growth M ain scenario 140 140 135 135 130 130 125 125 120 120 04 05 06 07 08 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. 09 10 11 12 Source: The Riksbank Figure 49. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 1992-11-18=100 145 145 Higher cost pressures M ain scenario 140 140 135 135 130 130 125 125 120 120 04 05 06 07 08 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. 09 10 11 12 Source: The Riksbank Figure 50. GDP Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data 5 5 Higher cost pressures M ain scenario 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 04 05 06 07 08 09 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources: 10 11 12 Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Productivity Annual percentage change 5.0 5.0 Higher cost pressures 4.0 4.0 M ain scenario 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources: 10 11 12 Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 52. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages 5.0 5.0 M ain scenario 4.5 4.5 Higher cost pressures 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 04 05 06 07 08 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. 09 10 11 12 Source: The Riksbank Figure 53. CPI Annual percentage change 5 5 Higher cost pressures 4 4 M ain scenario 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 04 05 06 07 08 09 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources: 10 11 12 Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 54. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages 4.0 4.0 M ain scenario 3.0 3.0 Higher cost pressures 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: The Riksbank Figure 55. Long-term interest rates Per cent 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 Sweden Euro area (Germany) USA 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 04 05 06 07 Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity. 08 09 Source: Reuters EcoWin Figure 56. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread) Basis points 500 Euro area 500 450 USA 450 400 United Kingdom 400 350 Sweden 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 09 0 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank. Figure 57. Difference between interbank rates and expected monetary policy (Basis- spread) Basis points 400 350 400 Sweden Euro area 350 USA 300 300 United Kingdom 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 09 0 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank. Figure 58. Monetary policy in the Euro area and the USA Per cent ECB ECB 2009-02-04 ECB 2008-12-01 FED FED 2009-02-04 FED 2008-12-01 6 5 4 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: ECB and Federal reserve Figure 59. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market participants Per cent 5.0 Repo rate 4.5 Forward rate 4 February 4.0 Forward rate 28 November 3.5 Survey, Prospera averages, 14 January 2009-02-06 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: Retuers EcoWin, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank Figure 60. Stock market movements Index, 04.01.99=100 220 220 Euro area (Euro Stoxx) 200 180 200 180 Sweden (OM XS) USA (S&P 500) 160 140 160 140 120 100 120 100 80 60 80 60 40 20 40 20 0 0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Sources: Reuters EcoWin Figure 61. Interest rates in Sweden Per cent 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 Interbank rate Repo rate 2 1 M ortgages – average of listed rates M ortgages – rate according to financial market statistics 1 0 jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 09 0 Sources: Reuters EcoWin, SBAB, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 62. Long-term interest rate Per cent 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 SBAB 5 years M ortgage bond 5 years 2 2 M ortgage rate 5 years Government bond 5 years 1 1 0 0 04 05 06 07 Note. Mortgage institution rate for over 5 years, new contracts 08 09 Source: Reuters EcoWin Figure 63. Housing prices Annual percentage change 16 16 House prices 14 14 P/ T-value 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: Statistics Sweden Figure 64. Lending to Swedish households and non-financial companies Annual percentage change 20 20 Households Non-financial companies 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 90 92 94 96 98 Note. Lending from monetary financial institutions 00 02 04 06 08 10 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 65. Money Supply Annual percentage change 25 25 M0 M2 M3 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Different definitions of monetary base Billion SEK 400 400 350 The banks' holdings of Riksbank certificates 350 The banks' deposit at the Riksbank 300 300 Banknotes and coins in circulation 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 jan-08 apr-08 jul-08 okt-08 jan-09 Source: The Riksbank Figure 67. Exchange rates SEK per Euro and dollar 12 11 12 SEK/ EUR SEK/ USD 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 jan 06 5 jul 06 jan 07 jul 07 jan 08 jul 08 jan 09 Source: Reuters EcoWin Figure 68. Transport costs indicator (Baltic Dry Index) Index, 1995=1000 12000 12000 Baltic Dry Index 10000 10000 8000 8000 6000 6000 4000 4000 2000 2000 0 0 85 90 95 00 05 Note. The Baltic Dry Index measures the price of transporting commodities by sea. Source: Reuters EcoWin Figure 69. World Trade Index Index 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Figure 70. Exports (current prices) USD, index January 2007=100 160 160 China Germany USA (import) France 150 140 150 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 09 Figure 71. Purchasing managers’ index, export orders in manufacturing sector Net figures, seasonally-adjusted 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 Germany Euro area France Italy 30 25 30 25 20 20 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: NTC Economics Figure 72. Employment and private consumption in the United States Annual percentage change 6 6 Private consumption 5 5 Employment 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of commerce Figure 73. Capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry Per cent 86 86 84 84 82 82 80 80 78 78 76 76 74 74 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Source: DG Ecfin Figure 74. Purchasing managers’ index in the industry and the service sector in the euro area Net figures 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 Industry 40 35 Service sector 35 30 30 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: NTC Economics Figure 75. Lending to companies and households in the euro area Annual percentage change 16 16 Households 14 14 Non-financial companies 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: ECB Figure 76. Government bonds in various euro countries (difference compared to Germany) Percentage points 3.0 3.0 Sweden Italy 2.5 Greece Ireland 2.5 2.0 Spain UK 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 -1.0 Note: Government bonds with approximately ten years left to maturity. Source: Reuters EcoWin Figure 77. Consumer prices Annual percentage change 6 6 USA OECD Euro area 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD Figure 78. CPI excluding energy and food Annual percentage change 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 USA OECD Euro area 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD Figure 79. HICP for the Euro area Annual percentage change 5 5 Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Excluding energy, food and unprocessed food 4 4 Total 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: Eurostat Figure 80. Economic Tendency Indicator 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 Economic Tendency Indicator 70 70 M ean (+/ - one standard deviation) 60 60 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: National Institute of Economic Research Figure 81. Confidence indicators in the business sector Seasonally adjusted net figures, monthly observations 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 M anufacturing industry Construction industry Retail trade Private service industries -40 -60 -40 -60 -80 -80 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: National Institute of Economic Research Figure 82. Retail sales and household consumption Annual percentage change 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Households’ total consumption Households’ consumption of retail goods Retail sales -2 -2 -4 -4 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Note. Non-calendar-adjusted data. Source: Statistics Sweden Figure 83. Household financial wealth and saving Per cent of disposable income 500 450 14 Net assets (left) Financial saving (right) 12 400 10 350 8 300 6 250 4 200 2 150 0 100 -2 50 -4 0 -6 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Source: Statistics Sweden Figure 84. Households expectation for the future Net figures 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 -80 -100 -80 Confidence indicator Unemployment -100 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: National Institute of Economic Research Figure 85. Gross fixed capital formation Annual percentage change 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 Housing Business sector excluding housing Public authorities -30 -30 -40 -40 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: Statistics Sweden Figure 86. Capital utilisation in industry Per cent, seasonally adjusted data 95 95 Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation NIER, current capacity utilisation 93 93 91 91 89 89 87 87 85 85 83 83 81 81 79 79 77 77 75 75 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 Sources: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) and Statistics Sweden Figure 87. Foreign trade with goods in fixed prices Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data 20 Import Export 15 20 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Note. Three-month moving averages. Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 88. New export orders Net figures and annual percentage change 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -60 Orders, NIER (Net figures) Orders, Statistics Sweden (Annual percentage change) -40 -60 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Sources: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) and Statistics Sweden Figure 89. General government net lending Per cent of GDP 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8 -10 -10 -12 -12 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 90. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices Thousands, seasonally adjusted data 24 80 New vacancies (left scale) 70 21 Unfilled vacancies (left scale) 60 18 Redundancy notices (right scale) 50 15 40 12 30 9 20 6 10 3 0 0 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: Employment service Figure 91. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sector Balance and annual percentage change 30 20 Expectations 10 20 Outcome 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 -50 -50 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden Figure 92. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour Per cent, seasonally adjusted data 80 M anufacturing industry 80 70 Retail trade 70 Private sector industries 60 Business sector 60 50 Construction sector 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: National Institute of Economic Research Figure 93. Full utilisation of companies’ resources, private service industries Proportion of companies 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: National Institute of Economic Research Figure 94. Wages in the business sector Annual percentage change 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 Industry Service sectors Construction sectors 1 1 0 0 00 01 02 Note. Three-month moving average. 03 04 05 06 07 08 Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank Diagram 95. Expectations of inflation one year ahead Annual percentage change 4.0 4.0 Households (NIER) 3.5 3.5 Companies (NIER) Prospera (all) 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Prospera Research AB Figure 96. All agents’ expectations of inflation one, two and three years ahead Annual percentage change 3.5 3.5 1 year 2 year 3.0 3.0 5 year 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: Prospera Research AB Figure 97. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the CPI Annual percentage change 30 30 M ortgage costs (4.5 % ) Energy (8.9 % ) Food (16.8 % ) 25 20 25 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Note: The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets. 07 08 09 Source: Statistics Sweden Figure 98. Prices of goods and services in the CPI Annual percentage change 4 Services (43.5 % ) 4 3 Goods excluding energy and food (26.3 % ) 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Note: The weight in the CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.Source: 09 Statistics Sweden Figure 99. Different measures of underlying inflation Annual percentage change 5 5 TRIM 85 CPIF CPIF excluding energy UND24 CPIX 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure B1. International comparison between central banks' balance sheet totals Index, January 2007=100 400 350 300 400 ECB 350 Bank of England Fed 300 The Riksbank 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 50 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 09 Sources: The respective central banks Figure B2. Central banks' balance sheet totals as per cent of GDP Per cent 30 30 ECB Bank of England 25 25 Fed The Riksbank 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 jan-07 apr-07 0 jul-07 okt-07 jan-08 apr-08 jul-08 okt-08 jan-09 Sources: National sources, Statistics Sweden and the respective central banks Figure B3. New lending to households and companies Annual percentage change 90 90 Households 70 70 Companies 50 50 30 30 10 10 -10 -10 -30 -30 -50 jul06 -50 okt06 jan07 apr07 jul07 okt07 jan08 apr08 jul08 okt08 jan09 Source: Statistics Sweden Figure B4. Trade-weighted exchange rates (daily listings) Index, 01.07.2007=100 1.50 1.50 1.40 NZD NOK 1.40 1.30 AUD SEK 1.30 1.20 1.20 1.10 1.10 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.90 0.80 Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 M ar 08 M ay 08 Jul 08 0.80 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 M ar 09 Source: Reuters EcoWin Figure B5. Implicit volatility in US shares, VIX (volatility index) Per cent 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: Reuters EcoWin Figure B6. TED spreads in the USA, the Euro area and in Sweden Basis points 500 500 450 450 The Euro area (Germany) 400 400 Sweden 350 350 USA 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Sources: Bloomberg and Reuters EcoWin Figure B7. The spread between corporate bonds in the USA and corresponding US government rates Basis points 2100 2100 1800 Aaa Bbb 1800 High Yield 1500 1500 1200 1200 900 900 600 600 300 300 0 1998 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: Reuters EcoWin Figure B8. Unweighted average of development of AUD, NZD, NOK and SEK during various crises Monthly data, t=0 when the crisis broke out, index=1 when t-1 by respective crisis 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Russia/ LTCM crisis 0.9 0.9 The IT crash 11 September Present crisis 0.8 0.8 T=-2 T=0 T=2 T=4 T=6 T=8 T=10 T=12 T=14 T=16 T=18 T=20 T=22 T=24 Note: Index based on trade weighted exchange rates for respective currency. Source: Reuters EcoWin Figure B9. Development of TCW during various crises and forecast from MPR09:1 Monthly data, t=0 when the crisis broke out, index=1 when t-1 by respective crisis. The broken line represent the Riksbank's forecast. 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Russia/ LTCM crisis 0.9 0.9 The IT crash 11 September Present crisis 0.8 T=-2 T=0 T=2 T=4 0.8 T=6 T=8 T=10 T=12 T=14 T=16 T=18 T=20 T=22 T=24 Source: Reuters EcoWin Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change 2008 2009 2010 2011 CPI 3.4 (3.5) -0.5 (1.2) 1.6 (1.5) 3.2 (2.1) CPIX 2.7 (2.7) 1.6 (1.7) 1.6 (1.4) 1.8 (1.7) CPIX excl. energy 2.0 (2.0) 2.2 (2.1) 1.8 (1.6) 1.7 (1.4) CPIF 2.5 (2.5) 1.3 (1.3) 1.2 (1.1) 1.5 (1.4) Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table 2. Inflation, 12-month average Annual percentage change M ar-08 M ar -09 M ar -10 M ar -11 M ar -12 CPI CPIX CPIX excl. energy 3.4 2.6 2.2 -0.1 (1.8) 1.9 (2.0) 2.0 (2.1) 1.4 (1.4) 1.7 (1.4) 1.9 (1.7) 2.9 (2.0) 1.8 (1.7) 1.7 (1.6) 3.3 1.9 1.9 CPIF 2.3 1.6 (1.6) 1.3 (1.1) 1.5 (1.4) 1.6 Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table 3. Key figures, annual average Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified 2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP, world Crude oil price Brent, USD/ barrel Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 Repo rate, per cent General government net lending, percentage of GDP GDP GDP, calender-adjusted No. of employed, 15-74 years 3.4(3.5) 97 (98) 127.2 (127.2) 4.1 (4.1) 2.3 (2.7) 0.7 (0.9) 0.4 (0.6) 1.2 (1.2) 0.4(1.9) 50 (60) 140.0 (134.3) 1.0 (2.0) -1.7 (-0.2) -1.6 (-0.5) -1.4 (-0.4) -2.0 (-1.3) 2.6 (3.2) 59 (71) 134.5 (128.8) 0.9 (2.3) -2.6 (-0.8) 1.7 (2.2) 1.4 (1.9) -1.6 (-1.3) 3.9 63 (77) 131.9 (126.9) 2.2 (2.9) -1.3 (-0.1) 3.2 (3.0) 3.2 (3.0) 0.0 (0.2) Unemployement* 6.2 (6.2) 8.0 (7.4) 9.1 (8.4) 9.0 (8.2) Hourly wage in economy as a whole 4.3 (4.2) 3.5 (3.6) 2.9 (3.2) 3.1 (3.4) * Percentage of labor force Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis. Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Table 4. Repo rate forecast Per cent, quarterly averages Repo rate Q4 2008 Q 1 2009 Q 2 2009 Q 1 2010 Q 1 2011 Q 1 2012 3.6 1.5 (2.0) 0.9 (1.9) 0.8 (2.1) 1.6 (2.6) 3.2 Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis. Source: The Riksbank Table A1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change 2008 2009 2010 2011 CPI 3.4 (3.5) -0.5 (1.2) 1.6 (1.5) 3.2 (2.1) CPIF 2.7 (2.7) 1.6 (1.7) 1.6 (1.4) 1.8 (1.7) CPIF excl. energy CPI 2.0 (2.0) 2.5 (2.5) 2.2 (2.1) 1.3 (1.3) 1.8 (1.6) 1.2 (1.1) 1.7 (1.4) 1.5 (1.4) Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table A2. Inflation, 12-month average Annual percentage change CPI CPIX CPIX excl. energy CPIF M ar -09 M ar -10 M ar -11 M ar -12 3.4 2.6 2.2 2.3 -0.1 (1.8) 1.9 (2.0) 2.0 (2.1) 1.4 (1.6) 1.4 (1.4) 1.7 (1.4) 1.9 (1.7) 1.3 (1.1) 2.9 (2.0) 1.8 (1.7) 1.7 (1.6) 1.5 (1.4) Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table A3. Summary of financial forecasts, annual average Per cent, unless otherwise specified Repo rate 10-year rate Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 General government net lending* 2008 2009 4.1 (4.1) 3.9 (3.9) 1.0 (2.0) 2.9 (3.3) 2010 2011 0.9 (2.3) 2.2 (2.9) 3.6 (3.7) 4.1 (4.1) 134.5 127.2 (127.2) 140.0 (134.3) 131.9 (126.9) (128.8) 2.3 (2.7) -1.7 (-0.2) -2.6 (-0.8) -1.3 (-0.1) * Per cent of GDP Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table A4. International conditions Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified GDP 2008 2009 2010 2011 USA Japan 1.3 (1.3) 0.0 (0.6) -2.0 (-0.7) -2.3 (-0.1) 1.0 (1.9) 0.2 (0.7) 3.2 (3.6) 1.6 (1.6) Euro area OECD TCW-weighted World 0.8 (1.0) 1.1 (1.3) 0.9 (1.2) 3.4 (3.5) -2.0 (-0.8) -1.9 (-0.3) -1.8 (-0.6) 0.4 (1.9) 0.4 (1.1) 0.9 (1.6) 0.6 (1.3) 2.6 (3.2) 1.7 (2.1) 2.5 (2.9) 2.0 (2.3) 3.9 (4.1) 2008 2009 2010 2011 3.8 (4.1) 1.4 (1.6) 3.3 (3.4) 3.6 (3.7) 3.2 (3.3) -0.5 (0.8) 0.0 (0.6) 0.8 (1.5) 0.8 (1.6) 0.8 (1.4) 1.8 (2.2) 0.5 (0.8) 1.4 (1.8) 1.7 (2.1) 1.5 (1.8) 2.2 (2.2) 1.0 (1.0) 1.8 (2.1) 2.0 (2.2) 1.8 (2.0) 2008 2009 2010 2011 97 (98) 1.7 (1.8) 50 (60) -3.0 (-0.3) 59 (71) 1.6 (3.2) 63 (77) 5.4 (6.3) CPI USA Japan Euro area (HICP) OECD TCW-weighted Crude oil price, USD/ barrel Brent Swedish export market growth Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis. Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank Table A5. GDP by expenditure Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified Private consumption Public consumption Gross fixed capital formation Inventory investment* Exports Imports GDP GDP, calender-adjusted 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.8 (0.8) 0.9 (0.9) 3.9 (4.1) -0.2 (-0.4) 2.0 (3.2) 3.3 (4.1) 0.7 (0.9) 0.4 (0.6) -0.6 (-0.7) 0.7 (0.7) -5.4 (-3.5) 0.2 (-0.3) -6.0 (-0.7) -5.6 (-2.3) -1.6 (-0.5) -1.4 (-0.4) 1.9 (2.2) 0.8 (1.3) -1.2 (1.8) -0.2 (0.0) 3.2 (3.1) 1.4 (2.6) 1.7 (2.2) 1.4 (1.9) 2.5 (2.6) 0.8 (1.0) 4.2 (3.7) 0.1 (0.1) 6.4 (6.0) 5.3 (5.4) 3.2 (3.0) 3.2 (3.0) *Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table A6. Production and employment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated Population, aged 16-64 GDP, calendar-adjusted Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted Employed (EU-definition) Labour force (EU-definition) Unemployment aged 15-74(EU-definition) * Labour market programmes* 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.8 (0.8) 0.4 (0.6) 1.2 (1.2) 1.2 (1.2) 1.3 (1.2) 6.2 (6.2) 1.5 (1.5) 0.5 (0.4) -1.4 (-0.4) -2.1 (-1.6) -2.0 (-1.3) -0.1 (-0.1) 8.0 (7.4) 2.2 (1.9) 0.2 (0.2) 1.4 (1.9) -1.5 (-1.0) -1.6 (-1.3) -0.5 (-0.2) 9.1 (8.4) 2.4 (1.9) 0.0 (0.0) 3.2 (3.0) 0.4 (0.7) 0.0 (0.2) 0.0 (0.0) 9.0 (8.2) 2.0 (1.9) * Per cent of labour force Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis. Source: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, calendar-adjusted data Hourly wage, NM Hourly wage, NA Employer’s contributions* Hourly labour cost, NA Productivity Unit labour cost 2008 2009 2010 2011 4.3 (4.2) 4.9 (4.8) -1.0 (-1.0) 3.9 (3.8) -0.8 (-0.7) 3.5 (3.6) 3.6 (3.8) -0.1 (-0.1) 3.5 (3.7) 0.6 (1.3) 2.9 (3.2) 3.0 (3.5) 0.1 (0.1) 3.1 (3.6) 2.9 (2.9) 3.1 (3.4) 3.4 (3.7) 0.1 (0.1) 3.4 (3.8) 2.7 (2.4) 4.7 (4.5) 2.8 (2.4) 0.1 (0.6) 0.7 (1.4) * Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis. Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table A8. Scenario with higher repo rate, annual average Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified 2008 0.4 (0.4) 3.4 (3.4) 4.1 (4.1) 2.0 (2.0) GDP CPI Repo rate, per cent Real repo rate, per cent Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 127.2 (127.2) 2009 -1.9 (-1.4) -0.8 (-0.5) 2.0 (1.0) 2.0 (-0.7) 2010 0.4 (1.4) 0.0 (1.6) 2.3 (0.9) 1.7 (-1.9) 2011 2.8 (3.2) 0.8 (3.2) 2.9 (2.2) 137.7 (140.0) 127.4 (134.5) 122.4 (131.9) Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table A9. Scenario with weaker growth, annual average Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified GDP CPI Repo rate, per cent Real repo rate, per cent Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 TCW-weighted interest rate, per cent TCW- weighted CPI TCW- weighted GDP 2008 0.4 (0.4) 3.4 (3.4) 4.1 (4.1) 2.0 (2.0) 2009 -2.4 (-1.4) -1.1 (-0.5) 0.5 (1.0) 0.4 (-0.7) 2010 0.0 (1.4) -0.5 (1.6) 0.0 (0.9) -1.7 (-1.9) 2011 3.0 (3.2) 1.7 (3.2) 0.5 (2.2) 127.2 (127.2) 139.9 (140.0) 130.1 (134.5) 125.3 (131.9) 3.8 (3.8) 3.2 (3.2) 0.9 (0.9) 0.7 (1.2) 0.5 (0.8) -2.2 (-1.8) 0.1 (1.8) 1.1 (1.5) -1.2 (0.6) 1.1 (3.0) 1.4 (1.8) 1.2 (2.0) Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table A10. Scenario with stronger growth, annual average Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified GDP CPI Repo rate, per cent Real repo rate, per cent Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 TCW-weighted interest rate, per cent TCW- weighted CPI TCW- weighted GDP 2008 0.4 (0.4) 3.4 (3.4) 4.1 (4.1) 2.0 (2.0) 2009 -1.2 (-1.4) -0.2 (-0.5) 1.2 (1.0) -1.4 (-0.7) 2010 2.2 (1.4) 3.0 (1.6) 1.9 (0.9) -2.5 (-1.9) 2011 3.8 (3.2) 5.0 (3.2) 3.6 (2.2) 127.2 (127.2) 140.9 (140.0) 138.5 (134.5) 138.0 (131.9) 3.8 (3.8) 3.2 (3.2) 0.9 (0.9) 1.5 (1.2) 0.8 (0.8) -1.0 (-1.8) 3.2 (1.8) 1.9 (1.5) 1.8 (0.6) 5.2 (3.0) 2.4 (1.8) 2.4 (2.0) Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table A11. Scenario with higher cost pressures, annual average Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified GDP CPI Repo rate, per cent Real repo rate, per cent Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 Productivity Number of hours worked 2008 0.4 (0.4) 3.4 (3.4) 4.1 (4.1) 2.0 (2.0) 2009 -0.6 (-1.4) 0.7 (-0.5) 1.8 (1.0) -0.7 (-0.7) 2010 1.7 (1.4) 3.0 (1.6) 2.3 (0.9) -0.2 (-1.9) 2011 1.9 (3.2) 2.8 (3.2) 3.0 (2.2) 127.2 (127.2) 142.8 (140.0) 138.0 (134.5) 135.3 (131.9) -0.8 (-0.8) 1.2 (1.2) 0.6 (0.6) -1.2 (-2.1) 1.5 (2.9) 0.3 (-1.5) 1.8 (2.7) 0.2 (0.4) Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank