Download MPR 2009 February - Sveriges Riksbank

MPR 2009
February
11-02-2009
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands
Per cent, quarterly averages
7
7
90%
75%
50%
Repo rate
6
5
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
5
5
90%
75%
50%
CPI
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Sweden statistics and the Riksbank
Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
90%
75%
50%
GDP
-2
-3
-2
-3
-4
-4
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4 Economic indicators in the Euro area
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
118
114
110
106
102
98
94
90
86
82
78
74
70
66
OECD Composite Leading Indicators (left scale)
European Commission Economics Sentiment (right scale)
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: European Commission and OECD
Figure 5. Consumer confidence in the USA
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, index
115
105
115
Consumer confidence
M ean 1952-2009
105
95
95
85
85
75
75
65
65
55
55
45
45
52 56
60 64
68 72
76 80
84 88
92 96
00 04
08
Sources: European Commission and OECD
6. Liquidation and redundancy notices in Sweden
Thousands
220
22
Liquidation (right scale)
Redundancy notices
200
180
20
18
160
140
16
14
120
100
12
10
80
60
8
6
40
20
4
2
0
0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Sources: ITPS and Statistics Sweden
Figure 7. Companies' new borrowing from Swedish
banks
Billion SEK respective annual percentage change
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
jul-06
-20
jan-07
jul-07
jan-08
jul-08
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 8. Policy rates
Per cent
Sweden
USA
United Kingdom
Norway
Euro area
8
7
6
8
7
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 9. GDP abroad
TCW-weighted, annual percentage change
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
93
96
99
02
05
08
11
Source: Consensus
Figure 10. Consensus and the Riksbank’s
forecasts for GDP growth in 2009
Annual percentage change
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-2
-3
08jan
Euro area
Asia
Latin America
Japan
USA
Eastern Europe
-1
-2
-3
08mar
08maj
08jul
08sep
08nov
09jan
Source: Consensus
Figure 11. Oil price, Brent crude
USD per barrel, future price
140
140
Oil price, outcome
Futures. average up to and including 4 February
120
120
Futures December
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 12. Commodity prices
USD, index, year 2000=100
Food
350
350
M etals
Other agricultural products
300
300
Total
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: The Economist
Figure 13. GDP for the USA and the euro area
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
8
8
USA forecast
6
Euro area forecast
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 14. Comparison of recovery following
various recessions, GDP USA
Level, Index=100 in the quarter preceding the beginning of the
recession
112
2008 Q 1
112
110
2001 Q4
110
1990 Q3
108
108
1973 Q4
106
106
M ean (from 1947)
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research and
Figure 15. Comparison of recovery following
various recessions, GDP Euro area
Level, Index=100 in the quarter preceding the beginning of the
recession
110
110
1974 Q3
108
1980 Q1
108
106
1992 Q1
106
2008 Q2
104
104
1980
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Source: Eurostat, OECD and the Riksbank
Seasonally-adjusted data and net figures
70
140
65
130
60
120
55
110
50
100
45
90
40
80
Japan
China
Russia
India
South Korea (right scale)
35
30
25
70
60
50
40
20
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: NTC Economics and the Federation of Korean Industries
Figure 17. Exports and new export orders
Annual percentage changes, seasonally-adjusted data
35
35
Orders received, export market
Exports
30
25
30
25
20
15
20
15
10
5
10
5
0
-5
0
-5
-10
-15
-10
-15
-20
-20
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Note. Three-month moving average.
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 18. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
8
December
February
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 19. Consensus and the Riksbank’s
forecasts for GDP growth in Sweden 2009 at
different points in time
Annual percentage change
3.0
The
Riksbank
Consensus
2.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5
-2.0
-2.0
Jan 08
M ar 08
M ay 08
Jul 08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Jan 09
Sources: Consensus and the Riksbank
Figure 20. Development of GDP in different regions
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Sweden
USA
Euro area
TCW
-2
-3
-4
-2
-3
-4
-5
-5
07
08
09
10
11
12
Note. TCW entails weighted GDP for Sweden's main trading partners.
Figure 21. Comparison of recovery following
various recessions, GDP Sweden
Level, Index=100 in the quarter preceding the beginning of the
recession
115
115
2008 Q1
2000 Q3
1996 Q1
1990 Q2
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 22. TCW exchange rate
Index, 18.192=100
150
150
TCW-index
TCW-forecast February
145
145
TCW-forecast December
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 23. Exports
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
20
20
December
February
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 24. Household’s disposable incomes, consumption
and saving ratio
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable
income
8
16
Consumption (left scale)
Disposable income (left scale)
Saving ratio (right scale)
7
14
6
12
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 25. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
5000
4800
4600
5000
Labour force 15-74 year
Labour force 16-64 year
4800
Employed 15-74 year
Employed 16-64 year
4600
4400
4400
4200
4200
4000
4000
3800
3800
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 26. Employment rate
Employment as a percentage of the population, 16-64 year,
seasonally-adjusted data
84
84
Employment rate
82
82
December
February
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
80
85
90
95
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
00
05
10
15
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 27. Unemployed
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
2
Unemployment 16-64 year
Unemployment 15-74 year
February
4
2
December
0
0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 28. Actual and trend productivity growth in
the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
5
HP-trend
Forecast, December
Forecast, February
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 29. Unit labour costs for the economy as a
whole
Annual percentage change
7
Labour costs per hour
Productivity
Unit labour costs
6
7
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 30. Estimated gaps
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
5
5
GDP
Hours worked
Employment
4
3
4
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
80
85
90
95
00
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources
05
10
15
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 31. CPI, CPIF and CPIX
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
CPIF
CPIF excl. energy
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 32. Repo rate forecasts on different
assumptions
Per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
February
December
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 33. Real repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
4
Real repo rate
4
3
February
December
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 34. CPI
Annual percentage change
5
5
90%
75%
4
4
50%
February
3
3
December
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 35. CPIF
Annual percentage change
4
4
February
December
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 36. Repo rate assumptions
Per cent, quarterly averages
5.0
5.0
4.5
M ain scenario
4.5
4.0
Higher repo rate
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 37. GDP
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
Higher repo rate
-2
-3
M ain scenario
-3
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 38. CPI
Annual percentage change
5
5
Higher repo rate
4
4
M ain scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 39. Production gap (GDP)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-2.0
-3.0
-3.0
-4.0
Higher repo rate
-4.0
M ain scenario
-5.0
-5.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 40. Labour market gap (hours worked)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-2.0
-3.0
Higher repo rate
-3.0
-4.0
M ain scenario
-4.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 41. GDP abroad
TCW-weighted, annual percentage change
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
M ain scenario
Weaker growth
Stronger growth
-2
-2
-3
-3
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
11
12
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 42. GDP
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
Weaker growth
Stronger growth
M ain scenario
-4
04
05
06
-4
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 43. Production gap (GDP)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-2.0
-3.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
Weaker growth
Stronger growth
M ain scenario
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
-6.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 44. Labour market gap (hours worked)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Weaker growth
-2.0
Stronger growth
-3.0
M ain scenario
-4.0
-4.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 45. CPI
Annual percentage change
6
6
Weaker growth
Stronger growth
M ain scenario
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 46. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5.0
5.0
M ain scenario
Weaker growth
Stronger growth
4.5
4.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 47. Real repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
M ain scenario
Weaker growth
Stronger growth
-2.0
-2.0
-3.0
-3.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 48. TCW-weighted exchange rate
Index, 1992-11-18=100
145
145
Weaker growth
Stronger growth
M ain scenario
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 49. TCW-weighted exchange rate
Index, 1992-11-18=100
145
145
Higher cost pressures
M ain scenario
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 50. GDP
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5
5
Higher cost pressures
M ain scenario
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Productivity
Annual percentage change
5.0
5.0
Higher cost pressures
4.0
4.0
M ain scenario
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-2.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 52. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5.0
5.0
M ain scenario
4.5
4.5
Higher cost pressures
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 53. CPI
Annual percentage change
5
5
Higher cost pressures
4
4
M ain scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 54. Real repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
4.0
4.0
M ain scenario
3.0
3.0
Higher cost pressures
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-2.0
-3.0
-3.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 55. Long-term interest rates
Per cent
6.0
6.0
5.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
Sweden
Euro area (Germany)
USA
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
08
09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 56. Difference between interbank rates and
government bond rates (TED spread)
Basis points
500
Euro area
500
450
USA
450
400
United Kingdom
400
350
Sweden
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 09
0
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank.
Figure 57. Difference between interbank rates and
expected monetary policy (Basis- spread)
Basis points
400
350
400
Sweden
Euro area
350
USA
300
300
United Kingdom
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 09
0
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank.
Figure 58. Monetary policy in the Euro area and the
USA
Per cent
ECB
ECB 2009-02-04
ECB 2008-12-01
FED
FED 2009-02-04
FED 2008-12-01
6
5
4
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: ECB and Federal reserve
Figure 59. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden
according to money market participants
Per cent
5.0
Repo rate
4.5
Forward rate 4 February
4.0
Forward rate 28 November
3.5
Survey, Prospera averages, 14
January 2009-02-06
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Retuers EcoWin, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank
Figure 60. Stock market movements
Index, 04.01.99=100
220
220
Euro area (Euro Stoxx)
200
180
200
180
Sweden (OM XS)
USA (S&P 500)
160
140
160
140
120
100
120
100
80
60
80
60
40
20
40
20
0
0
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 61. Interest rates in Sweden
Per cent
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
Interbank rate
Repo rate
2
1
M ortgages – average of listed rates
M ortgages – rate according to financial market statistics
1
0
jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 09
0
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, SBAB, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 62. Long-term interest rate
Per cent
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
SBAB 5 years
M ortgage bond 5 years
2
2
M ortgage rate 5 years
Government bond 5 years
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
Note. Mortgage institution rate for over 5 years, new contracts
08
09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 63. Housing prices
Annual percentage change
16
16
House prices
14
14
P/ T-value
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 64. Lending to Swedish households and
non-financial companies
Annual percentage change
20
20
Households
Non-financial companies
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
90
92
94
96
98
Note. Lending from monetary financial institutions
00
02
04
06
08
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 65. Money Supply
Annual percentage change
25
25
M0
M2
M3
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Different definitions of monetary base
Billion SEK
400
400
350
The banks' holdings of Riksbank certificates
350
The banks' deposit at the Riksbank
300
300
Banknotes and coins in circulation
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
jan-08
apr-08
jul-08
okt-08
jan-09
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 67. Exchange rates
SEK per Euro and dollar
12
11
12
SEK/ EUR
SEK/ USD
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
jan 06
5
jul 06
jan 07
jul 07
jan 08
jul 08
jan 09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 68. Transport costs indicator (Baltic Dry
Index)
Index, 1995=1000
12000
12000
Baltic Dry Index
10000
10000
8000
8000
6000
6000
4000
4000
2000
2000
0
0
85
90
95
00
05
Note. The Baltic Dry Index measures the price of transporting commodities by sea.
Source:
Reuters EcoWin
Figure 69. World Trade Index
Index
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Figure 70. Exports (current prices)
USD, index January 2007=100
160
160
China
Germany
USA (import)
France
150
140
150
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
jan
07
apr
07
jul
07
okt
07
jan
08
apr
08
jul
08
okt
08
jan
09
Figure 71. Purchasing managers’ index, export
orders in manufacturing sector
Net figures, seasonally-adjusted
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
Germany
Euro area
France
Italy
30
25
30
25
20
20
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: NTC Economics
Figure 72. Employment and private consumption in
the United States
Annual percentage change
6
6
Private consumption
5
5
Employment
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of commerce
Figure 73. Capacity utilisation in the manufacturing
industry
Per cent
86
86
84
84
82
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
Source: DG Ecfin
Figure 74. Purchasing managers’ index in the
industry and the service sector in the euro area
Net figures
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
Industry
40
35
Service sector
35
30
30
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: NTC Economics
Figure 75. Lending to companies and households
in the euro area
Annual percentage change
16
16
Households
14
14
Non-financial companies
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: ECB
Figure 76. Government bonds in various euro
countries (difference compared to Germany)
Percentage points
3.0
3.0
Sweden
Italy
2.5
Greece
Ireland
2.5
2.0
Spain
UK
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09
-1.0
Note: Government bonds with approximately ten years left to maturity.
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 77. Consumer prices
Annual percentage change
6
6
USA
OECD
Euro area
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD
Figure 78. CPI excluding energy and food
Annual percentage change
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
USA
OECD
Euro area
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD
Figure 79. HICP for the Euro area
Annual percentage change
5
5
Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
Excluding energy, food and unprocessed food
4
4
Total
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Eurostat
Figure 80. Economic Tendency Indicator
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
Economic Tendency Indicator
70
70
M ean (+/ - one standard deviation)
60
60
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 81. Confidence indicators in the business
sector
Seasonally adjusted net figures, monthly observations
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
M anufacturing industry
Construction industry
Retail trade
Private service industries
-40
-60
-40
-60
-80
-80
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 82. Retail sales and household consumption
Annual percentage change
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Households’ total consumption
Households’ consumption of retail goods
Retail sales
-2
-2
-4
-4
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Note. Non-calendar-adjusted data.
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 83. Household financial wealth and saving
Per cent of disposable income
500
450
14
Net assets (left)
Financial saving (right)
12
400
10
350
8
300
6
250
4
200
2
150
0
100
-2
50
-4
0
-6
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 84. Households expectation for the future
Net figures
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
-80
-100
-80
Confidence indicator
Unemployment
-100
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 85. Gross fixed capital formation
Annual percentage change
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
Housing
Business sector excluding housing
Public authorities
-30
-30
-40
-40
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 86. Capital utilisation in industry
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
95
95
Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation
NIER, current capacity utilisation
93
93
91
91
89
89
87
87
85
85
83
83
81
81
79
79
77
77
75
75
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) and Statistics Sweden
Figure 87. Foreign trade with goods in fixed prices
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
20
Import
Export
15
20
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Note. Three-month moving averages.
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 88. New export orders
Net figures and annual percentage change
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-60
Orders, NIER (Net figures)
Orders, Statistics Sweden (Annual percentage change)
-40
-60
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) and Statistics Sweden
Figure 89. General government net lending
Per cent of GDP
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
-12
-12
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 90. New and unfilled vacant jobs and
redundancy notices
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
24
80
New vacancies (left scale)
70
21
Unfilled vacancies (left scale)
60
18
Redundancy notices (right
scale)
50
15
40
12
30
9
20
6
10
3
0
0
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Employment service
Figure 91. Hiring plans and number of employed in
the business sector
Balance and annual percentage change
30
20
Expectations
10
20
Outcome
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
-50
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 92. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage
of labour
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
80
M anufacturing industry
80
70
Retail trade
70
Private sector industries
60
Business sector
60
50
Construction sector
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 93. Full utilisation of companies’ resources,
private service industries
Proportion of companies
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 94. Wages in the business sector
Annual percentage change
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Industry
Service sectors
Construction sectors
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
Note. Three-month moving average.
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
Diagram 95. Expectations of inflation one year
ahead
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
Households (NIER)
3.5
3.5
Companies (NIER)
Prospera (all)
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Prospera Research AB
Figure 96. All agents’ expectations of inflation one,
two and three years ahead
Annual percentage change
3.5
3.5
1 year
2 year
3.0
3.0
5 year
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Prospera Research AB
Figure 97. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the
CPI
Annual percentage change
30
30
M ortgage costs (4.5 % )
Energy (8.9 % )
Food (16.8 % )
25
20
25
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note: The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.
07
08
09
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 98. Prices of goods and services in the CPI
Annual percentage change
4
Services (43.5 % )
4
3
Goods excluding energy and food (26.3 % )
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Note: The weight in the CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.Source:
09
Statistics Sweden
Figure 99. Different measures of underlying
inflation
Annual percentage change
5
5
TRIM 85
CPIF
CPIF excluding energy
UND24
CPIX
4
3
4
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B1. International comparison between
central banks' balance sheet totals
Index, January 2007=100
400
350
300
400
ECB
350
Bank of England
Fed
300
The Riksbank
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
jan 07 apr 07 jul 07
50
okt 07 jan 08 apr 08
jul 08
okt 08 jan 09
Sources: The respective central banks
Figure B2. Central banks' balance sheet totals as
per cent of GDP
Per cent
30
30
ECB
Bank of England
25
25
Fed
The Riksbank
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
jan-07 apr-07
0
jul-07
okt-07
jan-08 apr-08
jul-08
okt-08
jan-09
Sources: National sources, Statistics Sweden and the respective central banks
Figure B3. New lending to households and
companies
Annual percentage change
90
90
Households
70
70
Companies
50
50
30
30
10
10
-10
-10
-30
-30
-50
jul06
-50
okt06
jan07
apr07
jul07
okt07
jan08
apr08
jul08
okt08
jan09
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure B4. Trade-weighted exchange rates (daily
listings)
Index, 01.07.2007=100
1.50
1.50
1.40
NZD
NOK
1.40
1.30
AUD
SEK
1.30
1.20
1.20
1.10
1.10
1.00
1.00
0.90
0.90
0.80
Jul 07
Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 M ar 08 M ay 08 Jul 08
0.80
Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 M ar 09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure B5. Implicit volatility in US shares, VIX
(volatility index)
Per cent
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure B6. TED spreads in the USA, the Euro area
and in Sweden
Basis points
500
500
450
450
The Euro area
(Germany)
400
400
Sweden
350
350
USA
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: Bloomberg and Reuters EcoWin
Figure B7. The spread between corporate bonds in
the USA and corresponding US government rates
Basis points
2100
2100
1800
Aaa
Bbb
1800
High Yield
1500
1500
1200
1200
900
900
600
600
300
300
0
1998
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure B8. Unweighted average of development of AUD, NZD,
NOK and SEK during various crises
Monthly data, t=0 when the crisis broke out, index=1 when t-1 by respective
crisis
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
Russia/ LTCM crisis
0.9
0.9
The IT crash
11 September
Present crisis
0.8
0.8
T=-2
T=0
T=2
T=4
T=6
T=8
T=10 T=12 T=14 T=16 T=18 T=20 T=22 T=24
Note: Index based on trade weighted exchange rates for respective currency.
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure B9. Development of TCW during various crises and
forecast from MPR09:1
Monthly data, t=0 when the crisis broke out, index=1 when t-1 by respective
crisis. The broken line represent the Riksbank's forecast.
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
Russia/ LTCM crisis
0.9
0.9
The IT crash
11 September
Present crisis
0.8
T=-2
T=0
T=2
T=4
0.8
T=6
T=8
T=10 T=12 T=14 T=16 T=18 T=20 T=22 T=24
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Table 1. Inflation, annual
average
Annual percentage change
2008
2009
2010
2011
CPI
3.4 (3.5)
-0.5 (1.2)
1.6 (1.5)
3.2 (2.1)
CPIX
2.7 (2.7)
1.6 (1.7)
1.6 (1.4)
1.8 (1.7)
CPIX excl. energy
2.0 (2.0)
2.2 (2.1)
1.8 (1.6)
1.7 (1.4)
CPIF
2.5 (2.5)
1.3 (1.3)
1.2 (1.1)
1.5 (1.4)
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 2. Inflation, 12-month
average
Annual percentage change
M ar-08
M ar -09
M ar -10
M ar -11
M ar -12
CPI
CPIX
CPIX excl. energy
3.4
2.6
2.2
-0.1 (1.8)
1.9 (2.0)
2.0 (2.1)
1.4 (1.4)
1.7 (1.4)
1.9 (1.7)
2.9 (2.0)
1.8 (1.7)
1.7 (1.6)
3.3
1.9
1.9
CPIF
2.3
1.6 (1.6)
1.3 (1.1)
1.5 (1.4)
1.6
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 3. Key figures, annual
average
Annual percentage change unless otherwise
specified
2008
2009
2010
2011
GDP, world
Crude oil price Brent, USD/ barrel
Exchange rate, TCW-index,
1992-11-18=100
Repo rate, per cent
General government net lending, percentage of GDP
GDP
GDP, calender-adjusted
No. of employed, 15-74 years
3.4(3.5)
97 (98)
127.2
(127.2)
4.1 (4.1)
2.3 (2.7)
0.7 (0.9)
0.4 (0.6)
1.2 (1.2)
0.4(1.9)
50 (60)
140.0
(134.3)
1.0 (2.0)
-1.7 (-0.2)
-1.6 (-0.5)
-1.4 (-0.4)
-2.0 (-1.3)
2.6 (3.2)
59 (71)
134.5
(128.8)
0.9 (2.3)
-2.6 (-0.8)
1.7 (2.2)
1.4 (1.9)
-1.6 (-1.3)
3.9
63 (77)
131.9
(126.9)
2.2 (2.9)
-1.3 (-0.1)
3.2 (3.0)
3.2 (3.0)
0.0 (0.2)
Unemployement*
6.2 (6.2)
8.0 (7.4)
9.1 (8.4)
9.0 (8.2)
Hourly wage in economy as a whole
4.3 (4.2)
3.5 (3.6)
2.9 (3.2)
3.1 (3.4)
* Percentage of labor force
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the
Table 4. Repo rate forecast
Per cent, quarterly averages
Repo rate
Q4 2008
Q 1 2009
Q 2 2009
Q 1 2010
Q 1 2011
Q 1 2012
3.6
1.5 (2.0)
0.9 (1.9)
0.8 (2.1)
1.6 (2.6)
3.2
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Source: The Riksbank
Table A1. Inflation, annual
average
Annual percentage change
2008
2009
2010
2011
CPI
3.4 (3.5)
-0.5 (1.2)
1.6 (1.5)
3.2 (2.1)
CPIF
2.7 (2.7)
1.6 (1.7)
1.6 (1.4)
1.8 (1.7)
CPIF excl. energy
CPI
2.0 (2.0)
2.5 (2.5)
2.2 (2.1)
1.3 (1.3)
1.8 (1.6)
1.2 (1.1)
1.7 (1.4)
1.5 (1.4)
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A2. Inflation, 12-month average
Annual percentage change
CPI
CPIX
CPIX excl. energy
CPIF
M ar -09
M ar -10
M ar -11
M ar -12
3.4
2.6
2.2
2.3
-0.1 (1.8)
1.9 (2.0)
2.0 (2.1)
1.4 (1.6)
1.4 (1.4)
1.7 (1.4)
1.9 (1.7)
1.3 (1.1)
2.9 (2.0)
1.8 (1.7)
1.7 (1.6)
1.5 (1.4)
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A3. Summary of financial
forecasts, annual average
Per cent, unless otherwise specified
Repo rate
10-year rate
Exchange rate, TCW-index,
1992-11-18=100
General government net lending*
2008
2009
4.1 (4.1)
3.9 (3.9)
1.0 (2.0)
2.9 (3.3)
2010
2011
0.9 (2.3)
2.2 (2.9)
3.6 (3.7)
4.1 (4.1)
134.5
127.2 (127.2) 140.0 (134.3)
131.9 (126.9)
(128.8)
2.3 (2.7)
-1.7 (-0.2)
-2.6 (-0.8)
-1.3 (-0.1)
* Per cent of GDP
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A4. International conditions
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
GDP
2008
2009
2010
2011
USA
Japan
1.3 (1.3)
0.0 (0.6)
-2.0 (-0.7)
-2.3 (-0.1)
1.0 (1.9)
0.2 (0.7)
3.2 (3.6)
1.6 (1.6)
Euro area
OECD
TCW-weighted
World
0.8 (1.0)
1.1 (1.3)
0.9 (1.2)
3.4 (3.5)
-2.0 (-0.8)
-1.9 (-0.3)
-1.8 (-0.6)
0.4 (1.9)
0.4 (1.1)
0.9 (1.6)
0.6 (1.3)
2.6 (3.2)
1.7 (2.1)
2.5 (2.9)
2.0 (2.3)
3.9 (4.1)
2008
2009
2010
2011
3.8 (4.1)
1.4 (1.6)
3.3 (3.4)
3.6 (3.7)
3.2 (3.3)
-0.5 (0.8)
0.0 (0.6)
0.8 (1.5)
0.8 (1.6)
0.8 (1.4)
1.8 (2.2)
0.5 (0.8)
1.4 (1.8)
1.7 (2.1)
1.5 (1.8)
2.2 (2.2)
1.0 (1.0)
1.8 (2.1)
2.0 (2.2)
1.8 (2.0)
2008
2009
2010
2011
97 (98)
1.7 (1.8)
50 (60)
-3.0 (-0.3)
59 (71)
1.6 (3.2)
63 (77)
5.4 (6.3)
CPI
USA
Japan
Euro area (HICP)
OECD
TCW-weighted
Crude oil price, USD/ barrel Brent
Swedish export market growth
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
Table A5. GDP by expenditure
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Private consumption
Public consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Inventory investment*
Exports
Imports
GDP
GDP, calender-adjusted
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.8 (0.8)
0.9 (0.9)
3.9 (4.1)
-0.2 (-0.4)
2.0 (3.2)
3.3 (4.1)
0.7 (0.9)
0.4 (0.6)
-0.6 (-0.7)
0.7 (0.7)
-5.4 (-3.5)
0.2 (-0.3)
-6.0 (-0.7)
-5.6 (-2.3)
-1.6 (-0.5)
-1.4 (-0.4)
1.9 (2.2)
0.8 (1.3)
-1.2 (1.8)
-0.2 (0.0)
3.2 (3.1)
1.4 (2.6)
1.7 (2.2)
1.4 (1.9)
2.5 (2.6)
0.8 (1.0)
4.2 (3.7)
0.1 (0.1)
6.4 (6.0)
5.3 (5.4)
3.2 (3.0)
3.2 (3.0)
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A6. Production and employment
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
Population, aged 16-64
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted
Employed (EU-definition)
Labour force (EU-definition)
Unemployment aged 15-74(EU-definition) *
Labour market programmes*
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.8 (0.8)
0.4 (0.6)
1.2 (1.2)
1.2 (1.2)
1.3 (1.2)
6.2 (6.2)
1.5 (1.5)
0.5 (0.4)
-1.4 (-0.4)
-2.1 (-1.6)
-2.0 (-1.3)
-0.1 (-0.1)
8.0 (7.4)
2.2 (1.9)
0.2 (0.2)
1.4 (1.9)
-1.5 (-1.0)
-1.6 (-1.3)
-0.5 (-0.2)
9.1 (8.4)
2.4 (1.9)
0.0 (0.0)
3.2 (3.0)
0.4 (0.7)
0.0 (0.2)
0.0 (0.0)
9.0 (8.2)
2.0 (1.9)
* Per cent of labour force
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Source: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost
for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, calendar-adjusted data
Hourly wage, NM
Hourly wage, NA
Employer’s contributions*
Hourly labour cost, NA
Productivity
Unit labour cost
2008
2009
2010
2011
4.3 (4.2)
4.9 (4.8)
-1.0 (-1.0)
3.9 (3.8)
-0.8 (-0.7)
3.5 (3.6)
3.6 (3.8)
-0.1 (-0.1)
3.5 (3.7)
0.6 (1.3)
2.9 (3.2)
3.0 (3.5)
0.1 (0.1)
3.1 (3.6)
2.9 (2.9)
3.1 (3.4)
3.4 (3.7)
0.1 (0.1)
3.4 (3.8)
2.7 (2.4)
4.7 (4.5)
2.8 (2.4)
0.1 (0.6)
0.7 (1.4)
* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A8. Scenario with higher repo
rate, annual average
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2008
0.4 (0.4)
3.4 (3.4)
4.1 (4.1)
2.0 (2.0)
GDP
CPI
Repo rate, per cent
Real repo rate, per cent
Exchange rate, TCW-index,
1992-11-18=100
127.2 (127.2)
2009
-1.9 (-1.4)
-0.8 (-0.5)
2.0 (1.0)
2.0 (-0.7)
2010
0.4 (1.4)
0.0 (1.6)
2.3 (0.9)
1.7 (-1.9)
2011
2.8 (3.2)
0.8 (3.2)
2.9 (2.2)
137.7 (140.0) 127.4 (134.5) 122.4 (131.9)
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A9. Scenario with weaker
growth, annual average
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
GDP
CPI
Repo rate, per cent
Real repo rate, per cent
Exchange rate, TCW-index,
1992-11-18=100
TCW-weighted interest rate, per cent
TCW- weighted CPI
TCW- weighted GDP
2008
0.4 (0.4)
3.4 (3.4)
4.1 (4.1)
2.0 (2.0)
2009
-2.4 (-1.4)
-1.1 (-0.5)
0.5 (1.0)
0.4 (-0.7)
2010
0.0 (1.4)
-0.5 (1.6)
0.0 (0.9)
-1.7 (-1.9)
2011
3.0 (3.2)
1.7 (3.2)
0.5 (2.2)
127.2 (127.2) 139.9 (140.0) 130.1 (134.5) 125.3 (131.9)
3.8 (3.8)
3.2 (3.2)
0.9 (0.9)
0.7 (1.2)
0.5 (0.8)
-2.2 (-1.8)
0.1 (1.8)
1.1 (1.5)
-1.2 (0.6)
1.1 (3.0)
1.4 (1.8)
1.2 (2.0)
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A10. Scenario with stronger
growth, annual average
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
GDP
CPI
Repo rate, per cent
Real repo rate, per cent
Exchange rate, TCW-index,
1992-11-18=100
TCW-weighted interest rate, per cent
TCW- weighted CPI
TCW- weighted GDP
2008
0.4 (0.4)
3.4 (3.4)
4.1 (4.1)
2.0 (2.0)
2009
-1.2 (-1.4)
-0.2 (-0.5)
1.2 (1.0)
-1.4 (-0.7)
2010
2.2 (1.4)
3.0 (1.6)
1.9 (0.9)
-2.5 (-1.9)
2011
3.8 (3.2)
5.0 (3.2)
3.6 (2.2)
127.2 (127.2) 140.9 (140.0) 138.5 (134.5) 138.0 (131.9)
3.8 (3.8)
3.2 (3.2)
0.9 (0.9)
1.5 (1.2)
0.8 (0.8)
-1.0 (-1.8)
3.2 (1.8)
1.9 (1.5)
1.8 (0.6)
5.2 (3.0)
2.4 (1.8)
2.4 (2.0)
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A11. Scenario with higher cost
pressures, annual average
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
GDP
CPI
Repo rate, per cent
Real repo rate, per cent
Exchange rate, TCW-index,
1992-11-18=100
Productivity
Number of hours worked
2008
0.4 (0.4)
3.4 (3.4)
4.1 (4.1)
2.0 (2.0)
2009
-0.6 (-1.4)
0.7 (-0.5)
1.8 (1.0)
-0.7 (-0.7)
2010
1.7 (1.4)
3.0 (1.6)
2.3 (0.9)
-0.2 (-1.9)
2011
1.9 (3.2)
2.8 (3.2)
3.0 (2.2)
127.2 (127.2) 142.8 (140.0) 138.0 (134.5) 135.3 (131.9)
-0.8 (-0.8)
1.2 (1.2)
0.6 (0.6)
-1.2 (-2.1)
1.5 (2.9)
0.3 (-1.5)
1.8 (2.7)
0.2 (0.4)
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank