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Housing loan guarantees • 1934: Congress established Federal Housing Administration (FHA) to insure some privately-issued mortgages • 2012: FHA insured $213 B in new mortgages • Other home loans insured by Veterans Housing Benefit Program and Rural Housing Services Government-sponsored enterprises • 1938: Congress established Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) to buy FHAinsured mortgages • 1968: split into Government National Mortgage Association (assist lower-income households) and Fannie Mae (private corporation) • 1970: Congress chartered Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) to compete with Fannie Mae • Exempt from certain taxes, unclear bankruptcy process • Fannie and Freddie issued debt (popularly called “agency debt”) • debt explicitly stated it was not backed by U.S. Treasury • CBO (2001): GSEs would have had to pay 0.41% higher borrowing rate if investors regarded them as purely private • 2008: Government took insolvent Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship, recapitalized with $100 B each Retained mortgage portfolios of Fannie and Freddie (billions of $) 1000 900 800 700 600 Fannie 500 Freddie 400 300 200 100 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Sum = $1.5 T in 2004 2004 2006 • In addition, the GSEs would buy mortgages, package them into mortgagebacked securities and sell these to other investors with guarantee against default • 2007: $2.7 T in MBS guarantees • 2006: $70 B in net equity • 2008: Fannie and Freddie required to include guarantees in total liabilities (but still completely off federal balance sheet) MBS as percent of GDP Source:http:/econbrowser.com/archives/2010/04/follow_the_mone 8 Flow chart for how private mortgage securitization worked $ Manager % $ sell loan Originator sell loan $ Arranger Trust % AAA Investors % % AA or A 9 Asset-backed commercial paper (billions of dollars) U.S. home ownership rate (in percent) 70 68 66 64 62 60 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Total mortgage debt as percent of GDP 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Shiller’s real house price index, 1890-2012 250 200 150 100 50 0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Percent of U.S. mortgage debt associated with different sectors 70 60 banks, S&Ls GSE & agency insurance ABS households other 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010