Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
National Accounts ICP Course on Price Statistics and ICP Jakarta, Indonesia 5-9 June 2006 TIMOTHY LO Statistician, International Comparison Program Asian Development Bank 1 Role of national accounts experts • ICP 2005 is a joint project involving both price statisticians & national accountants. • National accounts experts provide the expenditure weights while the price statisticians provide the prices. • A main objective of ICP 2005 is to compare the real GDP of participating countries; this requires good estimates of the level of GDP in national currencies. 2 Starting Point for the ICP • GDP is the starting point for ICP • Expenditure on GDP is classified into at least 155 basic headings using four international classifications: • COICOP for household expenditure • COPNI for NPISH • COFOG for government • CPA/CPC for gross fixed capital formation 3 SNA 1968 versus SNA 1993 • FISIM - Allocation to users in final consumption intermediate consumption and exports • Concept of actual final consumption for households and government. • Illegal production - now explicitly included • Software and mineral exploration - gross capital formation • Military equipment - dual purpose equipment, building and structures now part of fixed capital formation • Valuables - part of gross capital formation 4 1993 System of National Accounts ICP 2005 based on the 1993 SNA, but some approximations are inevitable. For example: • Non-profit institutions may not be distinguished in some countries • Many countries will not be able to estimate transactions in valuables, patented entities • Most countries do not yet allocate FISIM to users • Few countries estimate value added in illegal activities 5 ICP Key requirements GDP must cover: • Crops and livestock for own consumption • Goods & services sold by “informal” or “unregistered” producers (ex. food and drinks sold by itinerant vendors; plumbers, builders, electricians; etc) • Significant illegal activities - prostitution and drugs • All government expenditures - for example, Military forces, state and local expenditures 6 Key requirements • Imputed rent for dwellings built for own occupancy can be constructed from traditional materials or modern housing • Software & mineral exploration (as gross fixed capital formation) • Significant NPISHs religious, international funded organizations 7 Expenditure on GDP There are 7 main ICP expenditure aggregates: • Individual consumption expenditure by households • Individual consumption expenditure by NPISHs • Individual consumption expenditure by government • Collective consumption expenditure by government • Gross fixed capital formation • Change in inventories & acquisitions less disposals of valuables • Balance of exports and imports 8 Main expenditure aggregates 1 Individual consumption expenditure by households 2 Individual consumption expenditure by non-profit institutions serving households 3 Individual consumption expenditure by government 4 Collective consumption expenditure by government 5 Gross capital formation Gross fixed capital formation 6 Change in inventories Acquisitions, less disposals, of valuables 7 Balance of exports and imports Exports of goods and services (plus) Imports of goods and services (minus) GDP Gross Domestic Product 9 Expenditure on GDP These are further divided into: • 61 Groups • 126 Classes • 155 Basic headings (ICP BHs) 10 Main Aggregates to Basic Headings • An example of breaking Main Aggregates into category, group, class and basic heading is shown in the following link. 11 Importance of Basic Headings • Most detailed level for which weights are available • They are the starting point for participating countries to draw up regional lists of the specific goods and services for which they agree to collect prices. • The basic headings are used as the framework for editing the reported prices • The ICP organizers will calculate PPPs for the basic headings before aggregating them to higher levels for publication 12 Examples of Basic Headings: Food 110000 Individual consumption of households Main aggregate 110100.0 Food and non-alcoholic beverages Category 110110.0 Food Group 110111.0 Bread and cereals Class 110111.1 Rice BH 110111.2 Other cereals, flour etc. BH 110111.3 Bread BH 110111.4 Other bakery products BH 13 Actual individual consumption • ICP 2005 will compare actual individual consumption - not final consumption expenditure 14 Who consumes? Who pays? Households Final consumption expenditure Actual final consumption Individual consumption expenditure by households Actual individual consumption equals individual consumption expenditure by households, plus individual consumption expenditure by NPISHs plus individual consumption expenditure by government NPISHs Individual consumption expenditure by NPISHs None Government Individual consumption expenditure by government Actual collective consumption Collective consumption expenditure by government 15 equals collective consumption expenditure by government Actual individual consumption Actual individual consumption of households Equals individual consumption expenditure by households Plus individual consumption expenditure by NPISHs Plus individual consumption expenditure by government 16 Expenditure weights will refer to final consumption expenditure • Participating countries will need to supply weights for final consumption expenditure FCE; this covers splits for both household FCE and govt FCE. • Conversion to actual final consumption will be done by the ICP organizers. • Participating countries will need to distinguish between individual & collective consumption expenditures of government. 17 Individual consumption expenditure by households • Actual expenditures – food, clothing, transport, rent, services…. • Imputed expenditures – rents of owner-occupiers – food & other goods for own consumption – goods & services provided as income in kind – FISIM (if allocated to consumers) – Barter transactions 18 Individual consumption expenditure by NPISHs • Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISHs) are mainly funded by households - either residents or foreign households. • Examples: – religious organizations (mosques, temples, churches, schools, clinics, hospitals) – trade unions – political parties in multi-party states – UNICEF, OXFAM, Red Crescent 19 Individual consumption expenditure by government • Most expenditures on housing, health, recreation & culture, education & social protection are individual. • Two kinds: – production of services by government for the benefit of individual households – purchase of goods & services by government from other producers which are then passed on to HHs, either free or at low cost (health & education only) 20 Collective consumption expenditure by government • Mainly falls under the COFOG headings of general public services, defence, public order and safety, economic affairs & environment protection • Only one kind - the production of services by government. Collective consumption does not involve the purchase of goods & services for delivery to households. 21 Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) • Goods that are expected to be used in production for several years • GFCF is always measured net of sales – sales for scrap, sales to abattoirs, exports of second-hand assets • 1993 SNA includes expenditures on software & mineral exploration in GFCF 22 Change in inventories • Work in progress - construction, ships… • Stocks of raw materials, finished goods, goods for resale, goods stored by government as strategic reserves, such as food and fuel. • Estimates may not be comprehensive but should cover important items such as food and fuel stocks, stocks of mining companies, large retailers... 23 Regional Progress on National Accounts All countries have submitted GDP expenditure estimates at BH level. • 2 Countries submitted GDP expenditures for 2002 • 7 Countries submitted GDP expenditures for 2003 • 14 Countries submitted GDP expenditures for 2004 24 Regional Office method of analysis The expenditure estimates submitted were analyzed on the following basis: • GDP was checked for mathematical consistency i.e. aggregate is equal to the sum of its components, GDP equals 100 • Identification of extreme low/high values of expenditures • GDP per capita was compared at similar level of income or geographical region • GDP per capita compared across Asia and the Pacific • Rank correlation was undertaken to assess the behavior of the shares for GDP per capita. 25 Thank You! 26