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Annual Energy Outlook 2015
United States Energy Association
USEA Executive Conference Room
May 21, 2015 | Washington, D.C.
by
Paul Holtberg, Team Leader, Analysis Integration Team
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Key results from AEO2015
• In most AEO2015 cases, U.S. net energy imports, including all fuels,
decline and ultimately end by 2030 for the first time since the 1950s
– Strong growth in domestic production of crude oil from tight formations through
2020 and limited growth in domestic demand after 2020 leads to a decline in net
petroleum and other liquids imports
– The United States transitions from being a net importer of natural gas to a net
exporter by 2017 in all cases
• U.S. energy consumption grows at a modest rate over the projection with
reductions in energy intensity resulting from improved technologies and
trends driven by existing laws and regulations
• Renewables provide an increased share of electricity generation, reflecting
rising long-term natural gas prices and the high capital costs of new coal
and nuclear generation capacity
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
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Key results from AEO2015 (continued)
• Improved efficiency of energy consumption in end-use sectors and a shift
away from more carbon-intensive fuels help to stabilize U.S. energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions, which remain below the 2005 level through 2040
• Growth of domestic crude oil and natural gas production varies significantly
across regions and cases, leading to shifts in crude oil and natural gas flows
between regions, requiring infrastructure adjustments
• The AEO2015 cases generally reflect current policies, including final
regulations and the sunset of tax credits under current law; consistent with
this approach, EPA’s proposed Clean Power Plan rules for existing fossil-fired
electric generating units or the effects of relaxing current limits on crude oil
exports are not considered in AEO2015
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Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
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Overview
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Crude oil price projection is lower in the AEO2015 Reference
case than in AEO2014, particularly in the near term
Brent crude oil spot price
2013 dollars per barrel
History
160
Projections
2013
AEO2014
120
AEO2015
80
40
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case and Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
5
Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of GDP
growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use
U.S. primary energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
History
Projections
2025
2013
120
2040
Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels)
100
80
Coal
40
Nuclear
Liquid biofuels
0
1980
27%
8%
9%
10%
18%
19%
18%
8%
8%
8%
Natural gas
60
20
29%
27%
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1%
35%
36%
Petroleum and other liquids
1985
1%
1%
2015
2020
2025
33%
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
6
U.S. net energy imports continue to decline in the near term,
reflecting increased oil and natural gas production coupled with
slow demand growth
U.S. net energy imports
quadrillion Btu
2013
History
40
Projections
30
20
10
Low Oil Price
Reference
0
-10
High Oil Price
-20
-30
2005
High Oil and Gas Resource
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
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CO2 emissions are sensitive to the influence of future economic
growth and energy price trends on energy consumption
energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
million metric tons
6,250
History
Projections
2013
6,000
High Economic Growth
5,750
High Oil and Gas Resource
5,500
Reference
5,250
Low Economic Growth
5,000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
8
CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP decline faster than energy use
per dollar of GDP with a shift towards lower-carbon fuels
energy and emission intensity
index, 2005=1
History
2.0
Projections
2013
2005
1.5
1.0
Energy use per capita
Energy use per 2009
dollar of GDP
0.5
Carbon dioxide emissions
per 2009 dollar GDP
0.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
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Petroleum and other liquid supply
USEA Presentation
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AEO2015 explores scenarios that encompass a wide range of
future crude oil price paths
Brent crude oil spot price
2013 dollars per barrel
History
Projections
2013
250
High Oil Price
200
150
Reference
100
Low Oil Price
50
High Oil and Gas Resource
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
11
U.S. crude oil production rises above previous historical highs before
2020 in all AEO2015 cases, with a range of longer-term outcomes
U.S. crude oil production
million barrels per day
History
2013
2013
2013
20
High Oil and Gas
Resource
Reference
Low Oil Price
15
U.S. maximum production level of
9.6 million barrels per day in 1970
10
Tight oil
5
Lower 48 offshore
Other lower 48 onshore
Alaska
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2020
2030
2040
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
USEA Presentation
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May 21, 2015
12
Growth of onshore crude oil production varies across supply
regions, affecting pipeline and midstream infrastructure needs
change between 2013 and 2040 in U.S. lower 48 onshore crude oil production by region
million barrels per day
10
8
Dakotas/Rocky Mountains
11.0
6
8.5
4
West Coast
East
Southwest
Gulf Coast
11.2
2
9.1
0
Midcontinent
-2
Reference
4.2
Low Oil Price Low Economic High Oil and High Oil Price
Growth
Gas Resource
4.1
High
Economic
Growth
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
13
Net liquids imports provide a declining share of U.S. liquid fuels supply
in most AEO2015 cases; in two cases the nation becomes a net exporter
net crude oil and petroleum product imports as a percentage of total U.S. supply
percent
2013
History
Projections
70
60
50
40
Low Oil Price
30
20
Reference
10
0
High Oil Price
-10
-20
-30
2005
High Oil and Gas Resource
2010
2015
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
14
U.S. net exports of petroleum products vary with the level of
domestic oil production given current limits on U.S. crude oil exports
U.S. petroleum product imports and exports
million barrels per day
High Oil and Gas
Reference
Low Oil Price
History
Resource
2013
2013
2013
12 Total petroleum product net exports
Other petroleum
Total petroleum product
12
High Oil and Gas Resource
product exports
net exports
8
Reference
4
8
Low Oil Price
0
-4
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Motor gasoline exports
4
Distillate
exports
0
Other petroleum
product imports
-4
1990
2000
Motor gasoline imports
Distillate imports
2010
2020
2030
2040
2020
2030
2040
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
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Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
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Natural gas
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Future domestic natural gas prices depend on both domestic
resource availability and world energy prices
average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas
2013 dollars per million Btu
History
2013
12
Projections
High Oil Price
9
Reference
6
Low Oil Price
High Oil and Gas Resource
3
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
17
Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas
production growth
U.S. dry natural gas production
trillion cubic feet
billion cubic feet per day
History
40
Projections
2013
100
35
90
30
80
25
70
Shale gas and tight oil plays
20
50
15
10
40
30
Tight gas
Other lower 48 onshore
20
Coalbed methane
5
Alaska
Lower 48 offshore
0
1990
60
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
10
0
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
18
Natural gas consumption growth is driven by increased use in
all sectors except residential
U.S. dry gas consumption
trillion cubic feet
35
billion cubic feet per day
History
Residential
Projections
Commercial
Transportation**
Electric power
Industrial*
30
90
80
25
10.9
70
60
8.9
20
50
15
9.4
8.2
40
30
10
5
0.9
3.3
1.6
4.9
4.2
3.6
0
20
10
0
2005
2013
2020
2025
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
2030
2035
2040
*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel
**Includes pipeline fuel
19
Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic
natural gas prices and world energy prices
U.S. natural gas imports and exports
trillion cubic feet
16
billion cubic feet per day
History 2013
2013
Projections
2013
Lower 48 states
LNG exports
12
40
30
Alaska LNG exports
8
Pipeline exports
to Mexico
20
4
10
0
0
Pipeline imports from Canada
Pipeline exports to Canada
-4
LNG imports
-8
2000
2010
High Oil and Gas
Resource
Reference
2020
2030
2040
2020
2030
2040
-10
Low Oil Price
-20
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
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Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
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Electricity
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Growth in electricity use slows, but electricity use still increases
by 24% from 2013 to 2040
Period
Average Growth__
Electricity use
1950s
9.8
1960s
7.3
2013 1970s
4.7
1980s
2.9
1990s
2.4
2000-2013
0.7
2013-2040
0.8
U.S. electricity use and GDP
percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods)
History
14
12
10
GDP
4.2
4.5
3.2
3.1
3.2
1.9
2.4
Projections
Electricity use
8
6
4
2
0
1950
Gross domestic product
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
22
Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon
options, led by growth in renewables and gas-fired generation
electricity net generation
trillion kilowatthours
13%
6
History
Projections
2013
1993
2040
2025
5
31%
4
27%
Natural gas
13%
16%
Renewables
18%
39%
38%
Coal
34%
Petroleum and other liquids 19%
1%
18%
1%
Nuclear
16%
27%
3
13%
11%
2
53%
1
19%
0
1990 4% 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
1%
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
23
Non-hydro renewable generation grows to double hydropower
generation by 2040
renewable electricity generation by fuel type
billion kilowatthours
750
History
Projections
2013
600
450
300
Conventional
Hydroelectric
Power
Wind
Solar
150
0
2000
Geothermal
Biomass
Municipal waste/Landfill gas
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
24
Growth in wind and solar generation meets a significant portion
of projected total electric load growth in all AEO2015 cases
U.S. renewable generation in all sectors by fuel
billion kilowatthours
2040
1,250
1,000
Wind
750
Solar
500
Biomass
and waste
Geothermal
250
Conventional
hydroelectric
power
0
2013
Reference
High Oil
Price
Low Oil
Price
High Oil
and Gas
Resource
Low
High
Economic Economic
Growth
Growth
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
25
For more information
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo
Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly
State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state
Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling
USEA Presentation
Annual Energy Outlook 2015,
May 21, 2015
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