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Overview of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Accounts at the BEA Robert L. Brown Calibrating the Nevada Economy: Data Tools for Assessing Our State and Local Economies Reno, Nevada February 2, 2007 BEA Mission To promote a better understanding of the U.S. economy by providing the most timely, relevant, and accurate economic accounts data in an objective and costeffective manner The nation’s economic accountant: comprehensive double-entry accounts and economics www.bea.gov What do we produce? National economic accounts Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Personal income Price measures Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator Inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve Board www.bea.gov What do we produce? International economic accounts International transactions Direct investments US investments abroad Foreign investments in the US Operations of US and foreign multinational companies How much off-shoring is occurring? www.bea.gov What do we produce? Industry accounts GDP by industry Input-output tables Show the structure of the US economy Travel and tourism satellite accounts www.bea.gov What do we produce? Regional economic accounts Personal income Gross domestic product (GDP) by state Regional economic multipliers www.bea.gov How do we produce estimates? Compile data from many sources Federal, state and local govt. sources Census Bureau Bureau of Labor Statistics Internal Revenue Service Private sector sources, e.g. Financial reports from corporations for pension contributions Insurance data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners Directly collect surveys in international area www.bea.gov Regional Economic Data Personal income The most current, comprehensive and consistent measure available of household income Comprehensive: measures income received by persons from production (returns to labor and capital) business and government transfers Consistent across time and geography www.bea.gov Components of personal income Compensation Wages and salaries Supplements Employer payments for pensions and health insurance Employer contributions for social insurance Proprietors’ income (sole and partnerships) Dividends, interest and rent (property income) Government and business transfers Including Social Security, UI, Medicare/Medicaid, workers’ compensation benefits Less: Contributions for social insurance www.bea.gov State personal income Quarterly estimates by place of residence from 1948 Now 3 months after the end of the quarter Annual estimates by place of residence from 1929 Preliminary 3 months after end of year Detailed 9 months after the end of the year Includes per capita and disposable personal income estimates Earnings and annual employment by industry by place of work www.bea.gov Personal Income: Percent Change, 2006:II - 2006:III www.bea.gov Local area personal income Annual data from 1969 Metro area PI now released 9 months after EOY County PI released 16 months after EOY Geographic availability: 3,111 counties 361 Metropolitan Areas 577 Micropolitan Areas 179 BEA Economic Areas Earnings and employment by industry by place of work Compensation by county and industry available 12 months after reference year www.bea.gov 106 Counties Account for Half of 2004 U.S. Personal Income www.bea.gov 1969 Per Capita Income Relative to US www.bea.gov 2004 Per Capita Income Relative to US www.bea.gov Percent of State Personal Income, 1969-2005 Reno-Sparks, NV(MSA) 29 27 Percent 25 23 21 19 www.bea.gov 20 05 20 01 19 97 19 93 19 89 19 85 19 81 19 77 19 73 19 69 17 Personal Income Average Annual Growth Rates, 1995-2005 U.S. and Neighboring Metropolitan Areas 10 9.1 8 6.6 6.3 5.6 6 Percent 5.2 4 2 0 United States www.bea.gov Reno-Sparks Sacramento San Francisco Las Vegas Per Capita Personal Income, 1969-2005 Percent of United States - Reno-Sparks, NV (MSA) 140 135 Percent 130 125 120 115 www.bea.gov 20 05 20 01 19 97 19 93 19 89 19 85 19 81 19 77 19 73 19 69 110 Per Capita Personal Income, 1969-2005 Percent of Nevada - Reno-Sparks, NV (MSA) 125 120 Percent 115 110 105 www.bea.gov 20 05 20 01 19 97 19 93 19 89 19 85 19 81 19 77 19 73 19 69 100 Personal Income (Reno-Sparks MSA) Average Annual Growth from 1994-2004 United States Average Growth = 5.2% 8.0 6.9 6.8 6.2 Percent 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Reno-Sparks (MSA) www.bea.gov Storey Washoe Per Capita Personal Income (Reno-Sparks MSA) Average Annual Growth, 1994-2004 United States Average Growth = 3.7% 5.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.3 Percent 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Reno-Sparks (MSA) www.bea.gov Storey Washoe Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State Most comprehensive measure of overall state economic activity State counterpart of the US GDP GDP by State is the sum of Compensation of employees Gross operating surplus Taxes on production and imports www.bea.gov Currently available GDP-by-State estimates Annual data starting 1963 to 2005 Total GDP by state and components by industry 2-digit SIC industries 1963-1997 NAICS sectors or sub-sectors 1997 forward Estimates in current dollars, chained (2000) dollars and quantity indexes Derivation of real GDP by state: apply national implicit price deflators to currentdollar GDP-by-state estimates for detailed industries www.bea.gov GDP by State release cycle Advance accelerated total GDP by state June following reference year Advance accelerated sector industry detail October following reference year Revised total and subsector industry June -- 18 months after reference year Based on more complete source data In 2007 we plan to release advanced total and industry in June www.bea.gov Real GDP by State: Percent Change, 2001-2005 www.bea.gov Uses of BEA’s regional income and product estimates By the US Govt, to distribute over $215 billion in federal funds to states www.bea.gov BEA Regional Income & Product Accounts Estimates Used to Distribute $215 Billion in Federal Funds, FY 2005 [Funded Programs Are Shown in Millions of Dollars] Child Care & Development Block Grant, $2,083 Vocational Education Basic Grants to States, $1,168 Rehabilitation Services Vocational Rehabilitation Grants to States, $2,604 Other, $1,979 Child Care Mandatory & Matching Funds, $2,717 Foster Care Title IV-E, $4,371 State Children's Insurance Program (CHIP), $4,725 Adoption Assistance, $1,712 Source: General Services Administration, Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance, April 2006 Uses of BEA’s regional income and product estimates By the US Govt, to distribute over $215 billion in federal funds to states By the states, to develop state government revenue and expenditure estimates Used in all states 21 states have tax or spending limits tied to state personal income www.bea.gov State Tax and Expenditure Limits Uses of BEA’s regional income and product estimates By the US Govt, to distribute over $215 billion in federal funds to states By the states, to develop state government revenue and expenditure estimates 21 states have spending limits tied to state personal income By business, to determine areas for new business location and expansion decisions www.bea.gov RIMS Regional Input-Output Modeling System Multipliers show impact of output change in any industries on 60 industry groups and the area total Effects on output, employment, and labor earnings User requests multipliers for any state, county or combination of areas Customized product produced for a fee www.bea.gov Recent uses of RIMS multipliers How military base closings affect local economies (BRAC) Impact of a nuclear plant closure on Erie and Cattaraugus Counties, NY (private) The economic impact of Super Bowl XXXVII on the San Diego economy (private study funded by the NFL) The costs of Gulf oyster harvesting controls (FDA) www.bea.gov www.bea.gov Contact Information Robert L. Brown Chief, Regional Economic Measurement Division 202-606-9246 [email protected] www.bea.gov