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Can Mumbai become an International Financial Centre? Joshua Felman IMF India Presentation to RiskWorld April 10, 2007 A disclaimer! The views expressed in this presentation are personal. They are not necessarily shared by the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Roadmap of the Presentation Why do we care? Where do we stand? What needs to be done? Roadmap of the Presentation Why do we care? Where do we stand? What needs to be done? The importance of finance Why focus on finance when there are so many other priorities, such as improving infrastructure and social services? The answer: Finance is to our century what steel was to the 20th century – the basic building material of a modern economy To understand the centrality of finance, imagine a devastating earthquake, leveling all India’s banks and corporates. Which sector should be rebuilt first? If banks are rebuilt, it will be possible to rebuild the corporates But the other way around will not work The importance of finance/quantity The need for long-term finance is great: $320 billion will be needed during the 11th Plan period, just for infrastructure Much of this will need to be financed by the private sector Where will they get the money? The importance of finance/quality Over the coming years India will be investing at least one-third of its income It is important that to do so efficiently Consider the following charts of the U.S., Germany, and Japan Investment in the U.S. is low… 40 Investment Ratio 35 (In percent of GDP) United States Japan Germany 30 25 20 15 10 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 …but growth has been high 10 Real GDP Growth 8 (In annual percent change) United States Japan Germany 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 …making for a very low ICOR 25 Incremental Capital Output Ratio 20 United States Japan Germany 15 10 5 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 How does the U.S. do it? Answer: it has a large financial system, which allocates capital in an exceptionally efficient manner Notably, it has a good balance between its banking system and its capital market Its banking system is large… 250 250 P rivat e Credit by Deposit Money Banks and Ot her Financial Inst it ut ions (In percent of GDP) 200 200 United States Germ any Japan India 150 150 100 100 50 0 1960 50 1971 1982 1993 0 2004 As is its stock market… 180 160 180 St ock Market Capit alizat ion (In percent of GDP) 160 United States Germ any Japan India 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 1989 1994 1999 2004 …and its bond market 120 1 .6 P riv at e Bo n d Mark et Cap it alizat io n (In p ercen t o f GDP) 1 .4 100 1 .2 80 1 60 0 .8 0 .6 40 0 .4 Un ited S ta tes (left sca le) 20 Germ a n y (left sca le) 0 .2 Ja p a n (left sca le) In d ia (rig h t sca le) 0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Domestic or foreign? The need to intermediate a large quantity of savings efficiently is a powerful argument in favor of building a strong financial sector But the Mistry Report makes another argument, that India needs to build an international financial centre (IFC) An IFC is a financial centre that caters to customers outside its own jurisdiction, in addition to domestic customers Global IFCs such as London and New York provide the widest array of international financial services (IFS) to clients from all over the world The case for an IFC The fundamental logic is straightforward, namely that opening up to global competition will be the fastest and surest way to develop the sector In other words, India should do to the financial sector what was done to the real sector in 1991 But there is an additional, more subtle, argument based on the path of India’s development India is globalizing rapidly, much more rapidly than most people realize Consider the following charts The export sector has become more important than agriculture… 30 25 20 15 10 5 Exports (% GDP) 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 0 Agriculture (% GDP) …and capital inflows have soared 2.5 FDI (%GDP) 2.0 Portfolio (% GDP) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2000-2001 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 India is globalizing rapidly The statistics on India’s financial integration with the rest of the world are astonishing: Total two-way gross flows on balance of payments transactions were $101 billion in 1992/93 They were $237 billion in 2001/02 And $657 billion in 2005/06 In other words: Doubling took nine years Near-tripling took only four India’s globalization More statistics: External flows were 47 percent of GDP in 1992/93 And 91 percent of GDP in 2005/06. Conclusion: While India is growing rapidly, it is globalizing even faster! So, India’s “operating manual” needs to change Previously, India was the quintessential closed economy What happened in the rest of the world mattered little to India, and what happened in India mattered little to the rest of the world. But times have changed... …India now matters very much! Seizing the opportunity India’s globalization has presented a significant opportunity for the financial sector: The Mistry Report estimates the size of the IFS market at $13 billion in 2005/06 It conservatively projects that domestic demand for IFS will grow to $48 billion by 2015 Right now, almost none of this demand is met locally Failure to respond to this demand is forcing Indian customers to go abroad, e.g. Tata-Corus With demand far outstripping supply, one could say that there is financial sector “overheating”! Roadmap of the Presentation Why do we care? Where do we stand? What needs to be done? India has considerable potential The Mistry Report argues that Mumbai has four key advantages: Hinterland, a large and rapidly growing economy, creating a substantial demand for IFS (the projected $48 billion) Human capital, including the extensive use of English, generations of financial experience, and strong IT skills Location, the ability to transact with Asia and Europe though the trading day Democracy and rule of law, including open expression of views But creating an IFC is demanding IFCs require a highly developed Bond-CurrencyDerivative (BCD) nexus Every IFS customer generates a currency transaction IFCs attract global bond issuers into the domestic market This requires liquid currency market, with a full range of currency derivatives This requires a liquid and arbitrage-free yield curve, backed by interest rate and credit default protection derivatives The BCD nexus is bound together by arbitrage The currency forward curve is but a reflection of interest rate differentials Where does India stand? The currency and bond markets are underdeveloped: Indian currency spot turnover seldom exceeds $5 billion per day, compared with $125 billion per day in Singapore The corporate bond market is small and not very liquid, even when compared to other Asian emerging markets India’s small bond market Missing derivatives markets Many of the important derivatives markets do not exist at all. For example: There are no Indian counterparts to key interest rate contracts in the U.S. – Eurodollar futures, Fed funds futures, Treasury notes, Treasury bonds India has only one successful stock index contract, the Nifty The trading of currency futures is banned IFCs also require a strong institutional investor base Institutional investors command enormous pools of capital They bring sophisticated analytical tools to bear on the task of price discovery They link domestic finance with the rest of the world Where does India stand? The institutional investment base is small For example, mutual funds have assets under management of just 9 percent of GDP, not large enough to influence price formation Pension funds and insurance companies are also small Roadmap of the Presentation Why do we care? Where do we stand? What needs to be done? Mistry Report Recommendations Key recommendations include: Removing capital controls Ensuring macroeconomic stability by reducing public sector debt from the current 80 percent of GDP to perhaps 50-65 percent of GDP Spurring the BCD nexus, including by creating the “missing markets” Developing the investor base Developing the investor base There has long been discussion of developing the investor base The focus so far has been on encouraging domestic investors The IMF has strongly supported the introduction of the New Pension system, which could bring considerable funds into the capital market But there’s another possibility: the investment base could be extended to foreigners Domestic or foreign? Actually, foreigners already participate in the Indian bond market – through ECBs! Consequently, firms can now choose whether to issue domestically or abroad Domestic issuance has many disadvantages: As noted earlier, market size is small Illiquid, with little secondary market trading Interest rates are higher than abroad The ECB route – and its problems Many firms consequently favor ECBs But there is a problem: foreign exchange borrowing, for example for infrastructure projects, can create a currency mismatch on balance sheets This is a risk management problem, so severe that it has become known as “original sin” Called a “sin” because unhedged foreign borrowing coupled with false perceptions of currency risk has caused serious economic problems, in Asia as well as Latin America Latin America is eliminating “original sin” Most EM countries are trying graduate out of “original sin” and have their local currency bonds accepted into global portfolios Until a few years ago, it seemed that there was no way to do this (that’s why it is called “original sin”) But times have changed Mexico graduated in 2003 Brazil graduated in 2005 Other countries are following Perhaps India could follow their path Rather than encouraging firms to borrow abroad, India could invite foreign investors to participate more in the domestic market. Current limits on foreign holdings of corporate bonds are a very modest $1.5 billion Should India go down this road? Three considerations: Feasibility Desirability Risks Feasibility: Is there a demand? If Latin America can do it, why not India? Investor interest has grown as India’s economy has started to take off It was boosted further recently when Indian bonds became investment grade In February, there was a significant development: a rupee bond was issued offshore using the non-deliverable forward market Why not bring such activity on-shore? Desirability: benefits for India? Increasing foreign participation would reduce “original sin”, since foreigners would then be assuming currency risk It would also extend the investor base, increasing demand and reducing domestic interest rates It would shift IFS revenues to India Desirability: benefits for India? Foreign investors would also promote secondary market development, since they are more willing to trade than pension/insurance companies Greater liquidity means that those who buy bonds know they will be able to sell them if they need, at reasonable prices This will encourage demand, reducing interest rates and thereby spurring more primary issues Risks: financing the government deficit Would opening up hamper the government’s ability to finance its deficit? Actually, it could help, by opening up a new financing channel, enabling the government to ease financially repressive policies If global fixed income investors allocated 2 percent of their portfolios to India (in line with the country’s weight in world GDP), this amount would exceed the required government bond holdings of domestic institutions Greater foreign participation could also allow maturity extension Starting in 2003, Mexican government issued 20-year bonds in pesos, marketed to foreigners But it would also increase market discipline on the government, potentially causing financing strains if investors become concerned about risks Risks: any dangers to monetary policy? Opening up could encourage additional capital inflows, which could complicate monetary policy But the extent of the increase in inflows is not clear, as foreign purchases of rupee bonds may just substitute for ECBs A possible strategy Participation could be liberalized gradually, to “test the waters” RBI is already allowing FII participation in government securities to expand gradually Tarapore Committee proposed allowing FIIs to purchase one-quarter of corporate bonds Conclusion India is globalizing at an astonishing pace, it is truly creating a “new India” This new India requires new ways of thinking, about opportunities, risks, and the appropriate ways to manage these risks On the opportunity side, globalization is creating the chance for the financial sector to grow to meet the demand for IFS But at the same time, it is creating a risk of unhedged foreign borrowing, known as “original sin” Conclusion How should this risk be managed? The days when it could be managed through restrictions and compliance checklists are long gone – if they ever really existed The best way to deal with this risk is not to impose more controls, but through more liberalization Remove the distortion: the restriction on foreign purchases of rupee bonds This solution may seem counter-intuitive, but that is precisely why we gather together for conferences such as RiskWorld—to leave aside our “operating manuals”, open our minds, and look at things in a different way! 48