Download Forum der Wirtschaftschemie

Global
MEGA-TRENDS
Dr. Tobias Raffel
Academic Affairs Manager, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Localization World Conference Berlin, June 9, 2009
2009_05_Localization World_05.pptx
Contents
Page
A. Beyond the current crisis
WHY it is essential to discuss global mega-trends today
3
B. Global mega-trends through 2030
HOW they will shape our world
8
C. Consequences for decision-makers
WHAT global mega-trends mean for you
22
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2009_05_Localization World_05.pptx
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A. Beyond the current crisis
WHY it is essential to discuss global
mega-trends today
1
When people talk about the future today, they often use characters
like V, U, W or L
Global GDP growth [%]
3.5
4.0
3.9
2.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
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2
In the long run, however, a few years of developments don't make
much difference
Global GDP growth [%]
4.0
4.2
3.4
3.6
3.0
2.1
2.0
1.5
1.6
1990
2009
2030
TODAY'S CRISIS
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3
The future will be shaped by global mega-trends
Globalization
GLOBAL
Global impact
(not just regional/sectoral)
MEGA
Very large, profound,
sustainable
- TRENDS
Long-term developments
(several decades)
Globalization
Climate change
Urbanization
Population growth & ageing
Value shifts
Power shifts to the East
Use of new technologies
Tertiarization
Scarcity of resources
etc.
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4
So WHY is it essential to discuss global mega-trends today?
Because:
> Global mega-trends are shaping our future
> Only those who know about them can (re)act
> (Most) global mega-trends
– won't "wait" for the current crisis and
– won't change direction because of it
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B. Global mega-trends
through 2030
HOW they will shape our world
1
Predicting the future is difficult and experts can be completely
wrong
CREATIVITY
IT
TRANSPORT
HEALTH
EQUALITY
"Everything that
can be invented
has been
invented."
"I think there is a
world market for
maybe five
computers."
"Heavier-than-air
flying machines
are impossible."
"That virus is a
pussycat."
"If anything
remains more or
less unchanged, it
will be the role of
women."
Charles Duell, US
patent office, 1899
Chairman of IBM,
1943
Lord Kelvin,
President of the
Royal Society,
1895
Peter Duesberg,
molecular biology
professor at U.C.
Berkeley, on HIV,
1988
David Riesman,
conservative
American social
scientist, 1967
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2
What research institutes and future experts predict: The Roland
Berger and World Economic Forum "Trend Compendium 2030"
INPUT
> Compilation of all relevant
existing trend studies
> Hard data as well as
qualitative assessments
from experts
OUTPUT
> Used for discussions and
scenario development at
WEF conferences in
Davos, Dalian, etc.
> Sent out to over 4,000
decision-makers worldwide
> Presented at conferences,
used for consulting work
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3.1
Demographic mega-trends: The world population keeps on
growing, ageing and moving into the cities
Known TRENDS 2009-2030
Lesser-known CONSEQUENCES by 2030
Population growth: World population grows from
6.6 billion to 8.3 billion, mainly in developing nations.
India overtakes China as the most heavily-populated
country in the world in 2025. It now has a population of
1.51 billion, twenty times more than Germany's. And the
latter is now shrinking.
Aging: The average age across the globe, now 28, is
set to rise to 34 by 2030. In the industrialized nations,
it will rise from around 39 to over 44.
Japan has the oldest population, at 52.1 on average, subSaharan Africa the youngest, at 21.7. Average age in
Germany rises by over four years to 48.2.
Urbanization: More and more people will be living in
urban agglomerations. Today, around 50% of the world's
population lives in cities; by 2030, it will be over 60%.
Rural areas become depopulated, especially in Asia. Smaller
cities with less than a million inhabitants grow particularly
quickly. By 2030, the largest mega-cities are Tokyo
(population 38.7 m), Delhi (37.7 m) and Lagos (33.1 m).
Source: Trend Compendium 2030
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Population growth example
Population growth [% p.a.]
3
2
AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
1
INDIA
NORTH AMERICA
Urban
population
[%]
CHINA
0
EUROPE
-1
JAPAN
20
30
40
50
Bubble size = Population 2009
2009
Source: United Nations Population Division, City Mayors
60
70
80
90
Bubble size = Population 2030
2030
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3.2
Economic mega-trends: Asia is at the heart of a growing global
economy and the tertiary sector becomes more important
Known TRENDS 2009-2030
Lesser-known CONSEQUENCES by 2030
Asia rises: With their economies growing 3-4 times
faster, emerging Asian nations such as China and
India catch up with the West.
In terms of purchasing power parity, the Chinese economy
will be 50% larger than the US's by 2030, twice the size of
India's and ten times larger than Germany's.
Global economic growth continues: The world
economy will grow by 3% p.a. on average until 2030,
so GDP doubles in the next 22 years.
India will lead the fast-growing economies, growing 272%
by 2030, followed by China and Indonesia. Western
Europe and Japan bring up the rear, behind the US.
Tertiary sector becomes more important: While the
industrial sector remains stable globally, the services
sector grows considerably.
Although the global population is growing and demand for
biomass as an energy source is increasing, agriculture's
share of GDP in the industrialized nations will fall to less
than 1%. Agriculture will account for less than 3% of jobs.
Source: Trend Compendium 2030
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GDP growth example
GDP growth [% p.a.]
12
10
8
6
INDIA
CHINA
4
AFRICA
2
US
JAPAN
LATIN AMERICA
GERMANY
0
35
45
55
Bubble size = Real GDP 2009
2009
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, TNS Infratest
65
75
Services
85 [% of GDP]
Bubble size = Real GDP 2030
2030
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3.3
Healthcare mega-trends: People will be living longer, but
increasingly unhealthily, and healthcare costs will rise
Known TRENDS 2009-2030
Lesser-known CONSEQUENCES by 2030
Life expectancy: Life expectancy rises, not least
thanks to progress in hygiene and medicine. Today,
the world's population lives to 67.3 on average; by
2030, it will be 72.2, nearly five years more.
The gap between men and women narrows. Women in
the West may live nearly eight years longer than men
today; by 2030, that will be down to just six years.
Unhealthy living: We are eating increasingly
unhealthily – fattier foods, too much sugar, etc. –
and not getting enough exercise. So diseases like
obesity, diabetes and cancer keep on growing.
The two most prevalent diseases in 2030 have little to
do with unhealthy lifestyles, however: HIV/AIDS and
mental disease.
Medical care: As medicine advances and the quality of
healthcare gets ever better, healthcare costs keep on
soaring – soon, the West will be spending one dollar or
euro in every five on healthcare.
Healthcare in the West will not be a problem in 2030; but the
developing nations will be many millions of doctors and
nurses short, so basic medical care cannot be guaranteed.
Source: Trend Compendium 2030
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Life expectancy example
Life expectancy [years]
90
Developed
countries
80
Emerging
countries
70
60
Developing
countries
50
2
4
Bubble size = Population 2009
2009
Source: United Nations
6
Women
outliving
men
8 [years]
Bubble size = Population 2030
2030
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3.4
Environmental mega-trends: Average temperatures rise,
energy consumption goes up and water gets scarcer
Known TRENDS 2009-2030
Lesser-known CONSEQUENCES by 2030
Temperatures rise: Average global temperature rises
0.5-1.5°C by 2030, resulting in dramatic changes in
global ecosystems
The costs of global warming will rise to an unimaginable
5-20% of global GDP p.a. (source: Stern Report).
Energy consumption: We will be using more and
more energy, 47% more by 2030, mainly because
emerging Asian economies are hungry for energy.
China will have overtaken the US as the largest energy
consumer by 2030. India's consumption is also on the rise,
using more energy than all of Africa put together.
Water shortages: Clean, fresh water is becoming an
increasingly scarce resource. This is mainly because
rivers, lakes and seas are becoming increasingly dirty,
and because of the effects of climate change, such as
growing deserts.
Regional differences in water supplies increase. One of the
main challenges is a modern distribution infrastructure in
cities – in many Third World megacities, 40-70% of all
drinking water just leaks away.
Source: Trend Compendium 2030
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Energy consumption example
Energy consumption [quadrillion BTUs]
160
CHINA
US
120
80
RUSSIA
INDIA
40
AFRICA
0
Year
2007
Bubble size = Population 2009
2030
Bubble size = Population 2030
2009
Source: International Energy Agency, Institute of Energy Economics
2030
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3.5
Living standards mega-trends: Income grows inconsistently,
infrastructure investment rises and fewer people go hungry
Known TRENDS 2009-2030
Lesser-known CONSEQUENCES by 2030
Income distribution: Differences in incomes
between rich and poor countries shrink, but the
income gap within countries widens.
A global middle class arises, 1.2 billion strong, involved
in the global market, demanding top quality and education
worldwide.
Infrastructure: Global population growth and the
progress of civilization mean investment in infrastructure will be huge in the coming decades. Of those
funds, half will be needed by developing nations.
Almost twice as much is invested in water infrastructure
as in energy infrastructure – which, in turn, is four times
more than in new roads and railways.
Food: The number of undernourished people falls –
from 710 million (13.5% of the world's population) today
to 460 million (6.9%) by 2030.
The specter of undernourishment will still not be
completely banished in the foreseeable future, however.
Western nations have too much; others, Africa in particular,
have too little. And climate change makes the problem much
worse.
Source: Trend Compendium 2030
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Daily food consumption example
Daily food consumption [kcal/person]
3,600 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
3,400
EAST
ASIA
3,200
3,000
MIDDLE EAST/
NORTH AFRICA
LATIN
AMERICA
2,800
2,600
SOUTH
ASIA
2,400
2,200
0
5
SUBSAHARAN
AFRICA
10
15
Total number of undernourished people 2009
2009
Source: United Nations
20
25
30
Undernourished
35 people [%]
Total number of undernourished people 2030
2030
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4
Technological innovations will also change our lives in the
decades ahead – But are also difficult to predict
Mood-sensitive
home decor
Dream
machines
Location
devices
implanted
into pets
Intelligent
cosmetics
Wearable
computer
Road
reservation
system
Robotic
surgery
Computers
that write most
of their own
software
Full voice
interaction
with PC
2009
Source: Nowandnext Innovation Timeline, BT Technology Timeline
Genebased
diets
Synthetic
bacteria
Fully
autopiloted
cars
Face
Arti- recogficial nition
eyes doors
Holographic
TV
Childcare
robots
3D
home
printers
Anti-noise
technology
in gardens
Selfrepairing
roads
Accelerated
schooling
Memory
enhancement in
humans
Sleep
surrogates
Virtual
vacations
Single
global
currency
Space
factories
Video
wallpaper
2030
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C. Consequences for
decision-makers
WHAT global mega-trends mean for you
1
It is necessary to analyze the impact of global mega-trends on your
specific industry
Globalization
Demographic change
Use of new technologies Climate change
Power shifts to the East
Value shifts
…
Global
localization
industry
YOU as decision-maker
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2
The localization industry will be affected in many ways (1/2)
GLOBAL
MEGA-TRENDS
Possible impact on localization
industry
Globalization
> Increasing demand for localization services (globalization
of businesses, terrorism surveillance, EU, etc.)
> More integrated solutions (simultaneous product launches
worldwide, parallel content creation and translation, etc.)
Use of new technologies
> Translation technologies (machine translation, translation
memory), language recognition software etc. will advance
and help – but not replace human translation and localization
> Increased personalization of language services
> Collaborative open-source services and free-of-charge
business models
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The localization industry will be affected in many ways (2/2)
GLOBAL
MEGA-TRENDS
Possible impact on localization
industry
Demographic and power shifts
> From European to Asian languages; Chinese, Arabic and
Spanish more important; Chinese as a second lingua
franca?
> Death of languages or revitalization and re-emergence of
local dialects: more or fewer languages spoken?
> "The old urban Asian customer"
Healthcare, environmental and
living standards shifts
> New topics and customers emerge
> Role of your industry beyond providing localization
services (addressing global inequalities, shaping trends)?
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3
So WHAT do global mega-trends mean for you?
> Be aware of their impact:
Analyze what global mega-trends mean for your industry's/your business's
– value chain
– service portfolio
– customer base
– etc.
> Prepare for challenges and opportunities:
You will have to meet different customers needs in the future, develop new
products and services, etc.
> Plan differently:
Use scenario planning as a tool to integrate long-term developments
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