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What’s new
Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser
ONS Economic Forum
10 July 2014
1
Output, employment and hours
Index nos, 2008Q1 = 100
104.0
102.0
100.0
98.0
96.0
Real GDP (chained volume measure)
94.0
Employment, Aged 16 +
Total weekly hours worked, Aged 16+
92.0
2
Contributions to growth in output
Contributions to GVA growth, % share of total growth
Prof. scientific admin & support
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Real Estate
Health
Construction
Information & Comm.
Other
Transport storage
Water Supply
Mining and Quarrying
Education
2012 Q4 - 2014 Q1
Accommodation & Food Serv.
2009 Q3 - 2010 Q3
Agriculture
Public Admin. & Defenece
Utilities
Financial & Insurance
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
3
Contributions to expenditure growth (1)
1981-1985
1991-1996
Percentage Points
Percentage Points
16
18
14
16
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
1981 Q1
1982 Q1
Other
1983 Q1
GFCF
1984 Q1
Household
1985 Q1
GDP
-2
1991 Q3
1992 Q3
Other
1993 Q3
GFCF
1994 Q3
Household
1995 Q3
GDP
4
Contributions to expenditure growth (2):
2009-2014
Percentage Points
Percentage Points
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
2009 Q3
2010 Q3
Other
2011 Q3
GFCF
2012 Q3
Household
2013 Q3
GDP
-2
2009 Q3
2010 Q3
Other
Household
GDP
2011 Q3
2012 Q3
2013 Q3
Bus. Inv.
Other Investment
5
Hours and potential hours
Millions of Hours
1,200
1,150
1,100
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Inactive
Unemployment
PT want to work FT
Employment
Total Worked Hours
Total Desired Hours
6
Labour market capacity indicators
Ratio of Actual to Desired Hours
%
0.90
0
0.88
Ratio Actual to desired Hours
(LHS)
-2
Inverted Unemployment Rate
(RHS)
0.86
-4
0.84
-6
0.82
-8
0.80
-10
0.78
-12
Estimated prior to
1993
0.76
-14
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
7
Net capital stocks
2012 = £3.5 trillion , CVM (2010 reference year)
Contributions to net stock growth, CVM, % pts
2.5
3% 3%
2.0
15%
1.5
41%
1.0
0.5
0.0
38%
-0.5
Dwelllings
Intangible fixed assets
Other buildings and structures
Transport equipment
Other machinery and equipment
Other machinery and equipment
Intangible fixed assets (a)
Other buildings and structures
Other Assets (b)
Dwellings
Total net capital stock growth
8
Capital intensity by industry sector
Ratio of net capital stock to GVA, 2012
Real estate activities
Water supply; sewerage, waste management and…
Agriculture , Forestry and Fishing
Electricity, gas, steam and air
Transportation and storage
Public administration and defence
Construction
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Administrative and support service activities
Mining and quarrying
Accommodation and food service activities
Information and communication
Manufacturing
Education
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor…
Human health and social work activities
Financial and insurance activities
Other service activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Activities of households as employers
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
9
Capital stocks per employed person
Net capital stock per employed person, % change on previous year
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
10
Capital stock and productivity
5.5
Real estate
Mining & Quarrying
Natural Log of Output per hour, 2012
5.0
Elect., Gas, Steam &
AC
4.5
Chemicals & Pharma.
4.0
Water & Sew.
Prof., Scient. & Techn
3.5
Transport & Stor.
3.0
Accom. & Food
2.5
Agric., Forest. & Fish.
2.0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Natural Log of Net Capital Stock per hour worked, 2012
11
Growth in capital stock & productivity
Average annual compound growth rates (%) of output
per productivity hour
10
Info. & Comms
Textiles
5
Basic metals
0
Elect., Gas, Steam &
Air Con.
-5
-10
Chemicals & Pharma.
-15
1997-2007
-20
2010-2012
Mining & Quarrying
-25
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Average annual compound growth rates (%) of the net capital stock per productivity hour
12
Households’ debt-income ratio
Stock of outstanding loans to households, % of households’ disposable income
160
Short-term Loans
150
Long-term Loans
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
60
2014
13
Households’ net interest payments
Net interest paid as % of gross households’ gross disposable income
7
6.3
6
5
4.7
3.9
4
3.6
3
2.3
2
1
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
14
2014