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Pathways, productivity and equity:
Insights from OECD work
Richard Sweet
AVETRA
October 20, 2006
Upper secondary pathways
Ne
I
th taly
er
Sw lan
d
it z
er s
lan
Be d
lg
iu
Sw m
ed
Un
De en
ite
nm
d
Ki ark
ng
do
m
Fr
an
c
No e
rw
Hu ay
ng
ar
y
Ko
re
a
Ne
Sp
w
Ze ain
ala
P o nd
rtu
g
Gr al
ee
ce
Ja
pa
n
I
re
Un
l
an
ite
d
d
St
at
Ca es
na
Au da
st
ra
lia
Au
s
Ge tria
rm
an
y
Upper secondary students by pathway type, mid 1990s
Apprenticeship-type
School-based vocational
General education
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Tertiary pathways
The size and shape of national tertiary systems, 2001
Tertiary type B
Tertiary type A
Advanced Research Programmes
9
Per cent aged 15 and over participating, by programme type
8
7
OECD mean
6
5
4
3
2
1
FI
N
KO
R
IS
L
CA
N
SW
E
G
RC
NO
R
ES
P
IR
L
AU
S
PO
L
NZ
L
US
A
K
PR
T
DN
CH
E
DE
U
CZ
E
M
EX
SV
K
TU
R
IT
A
JP
N
NL
D
HU
N
AU
T
FR
A
BE
L
UK
M
0
Ze
Au
st
ra
lia
Ja
pa
n
Au
st
ria
an
y
d
da
ala
n
Ca
na
Fr
an
ce
Ge
rm
Ne
w
d
Fi
nl
an
d
Ire
la
n
ay
Ne
th
er
la
nd
s
No
rw
Per cent of tertiary enrolments in universities, 2001
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
(T
AF
F
(c
E)
ra
ol
nc
le
e
ge
(I U
s
Ts
of
)
te
ch
Au
Au
no
st
st
ria
lo
ria
gy
(U
(
)
Ak
pp
ad
er
em
Ne
se
ie
co
w
n)
Ze
nd
al
a
Ca
ry
an
na
vo
d
(P
da
...
ol
(C
y
Ire
te
om
la
ch
m
nd
ni
u
cs
ni
(I n
ty
)
st
Co
itu
No
te
lle
s
rw
ge
of
ay
s)
T
(U
ec
ni
hn
Ne
ve
o.
th
rs
..
er
ity
la
co
nd
l le
s
ge
(H
og
s)
es
ch
ol
G
en
er
)
m
an
y
(F
HS
Fi
nl
)
an
d
(A
M
Au
K)
st
ria
(F
HS
)
Ja
pa
n
Au
st
ra
l ia
Enrolments by ISCED level, selected non-university institutions, 2001
2
3
4
5B
5A+6
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Does size matter?
Correlates of the size of tertiary systems

National wealth?

GDP per capita = R2.0149 (2001)
Correlates of the size of tertiary systems

National wealth?


GDP per capita = R2.0149 (2001)
The structure of the system?

Per cent of enrolments in tertiary-type B programmes R2=.0721 (2001)
How about the economic demand argument?
Contribution of technology- and knowledgeintensive industries to value added, 2000 (%)
45
CHE
43
41
DEU
39
37
AUS
35
33
R2=0.0004
31
ESP
29
GRC
27
25
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
15+ participation in tertiary education, 2001 (%)
7.5
8.5
Correlates of the size of tertiary systems

National wealth?


The structure of the system?


GDP per capita = R2.0149 (2001)
Per cent of enrolments in tertiary-type B programmes R2=.0721 (2001)
Economic demand?

Share of value added represented by technology- and knowledge-intensive
industries R2=.0004 (2000)
Correlates of the size of tertiary systems

National wealth?


The structure of the system?


Per cent of enrolments in tertiary-type B programmes R2=.0721 (2001)
Economic demand?


GDP per capita = R2.0149 (2001)
Share of value added represented by technology- and knowledge-intensive
industries R2=.0029 (2000)
Social demand?
Per cent of 15 year-olds expecting to achieve tertiary
education, 2003
100
90
Source: PISA database
80
70
R2=.2476
60
50
40
30
20
10
S
JP
N
US
A
G
RC
CA
N
TU
R
KO
R
AU
BE
L
ES
P
M
EX
HU
N
SW
E
IR
L
L
X
NO
R
IT
A
LU
NZ
FI
N
FR
A
IS
L
PR
T
D
T
DN
K
PO
L
CZ
E
SV
K
AU
NL
DE
U
CH
E
UK
M
0
Correlates of the size of tertiary systems

National wealth?


The structure of the system?


Per cent of enrolments in tertiary-type B programmes R2=.0721 (2001)
Economic demand?


GDP per capita = R2.0149 (2001)
Share of value added represented by technology- and knowledge-intensive
industries R2=.0004 (2000)
Social demand?

Per cent of 15 year-olds expecting to achieve tertiary education R2=.2476 (2003)
Correlates of the size of tertiary systems

National wealth?


The structure of the system?


Share of value added represented by technology- and knowledge-intensive
industries R2=.0029 (2000)
Social demand?


Per cent of enrolments in tertiary-type B programmes R2=.0721 (2001)
Economic demand?


GDP per capita = R2.0149 (2001)
Per cent of 15 year-olds expecting to achieve tertiary education R2=.2476 (2003)
Inequality?
Inequality, literacy and tertiary size
50
DEU
Impact of social gradient at 15, 2001
45
CZE
HUN
CHE
40
UKM
PRT
BEL
35
AUT
GRC
MEX
30
25
FRA
ITA
20
POL
USA
IRL NZL
DNK SWE
NOR
CAN
AUS
ESP
ISL
FIN
15
KOR
2
10
R = 0.4583
5
0
2
3
4
5
6
7
Per cent aged 15+ participating in tertiary, 2001
8
9
Conclusions

Countries don’t have the size of tertiary system
that they can afford or that they need, but the
size that they want

Unfair societies that stream early and by social
class have small tertiary systems


But can still deliver high quality skills through their
VET systems
Large, high quality apprenticeship systems
come at a cost
An observation rather than a conclusion
 Australia
might be fortunate in having a
small and low quality apprenticeship
system
 But
that is a story for another day
Thank you