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Finanzgruppe
1
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
Economy and Banking System
Armenia, Azerbaijan & Georgia
Juergen Engel
BACEE Conference, Budapest , November 16th, 2006
Finanzgruppe
2
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
Structure, Political Situation,Economic
Fundamentals
Armenia
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
3
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Map of Armenia , Structural Data
2005 figures
Size
29,800 sqkm
Population 3.1 million
104 inh./sqkm
GDP/capita USD 1585
(38 % of population below poverty line ,
2005 figures)
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
4
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Armenia – Political Situation (2006)
•
Internal situation
•
Foreign politics
•
Challenges
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
5
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Armenia – Political Situation (2006)
Internal Situation
•
New constitution established, despite criticism
•
President Kocharian‘s final term
•
Weak opposition – new parties
•
2007 parliamentary elections
•
2008 presidential election date
•
No ethnic tensions
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
6
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Armenia – Political Situation (2006)
External Situation
•
Unsolved Karabakh dispute, bilateral talks failed
•
No reconciliation with Turkey
•
Strong support from Armenian diaspora abroad
•
Strong ties with Russia and good support from USA
•
Russian military presence guarantees borderlines
•
Ties with EU based on ENP
•
Strong ties with France
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
7
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Armenia – Main Economic Fundamentals
Contribution to GDP
Agriculture
23%
25%
Industry and
Manufacturing
Transport and
Communication
Trade
Construction
19%
16%
others
11%
6%
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
8
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Armenia – Main Economic Fundamentals
2005
2006 expected
GDP (bn USD)
4.95
5.50
Real GDP growth (%)
13.9
10.0
CPI (%)
0.2
1.7
Unemployment (%)
9.4
9.0
Export (fob) (m USD)
950
1010
Import (fob) (m USD)
- 1445
-1700
Current Account (m USD)
- 118
- 252
Currency Reserves
755
Total External Debt (bn
1.1
USD)
Debt Service/ Exports (%)
5.7
FDI (m USD)
281
Budget Deficit (in % GDP)
2.0
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
9
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Armenia – Foreign Trade (2005)
Main Trading Partners
% of Exports
% of Imports
Germany
16.5
Russia
13.1
Belgium
14,4
Belgium
9.1
Netherlands
12.8
Ukraine
7.4
Israel
12.4
Germany
7.3
Main Items in %
Exports
Imports
Precious Stones
25.1
Precious stones
27.1
Base Metals
23.7
Mineral products
20.3
Food products
6.3
Machinery
14.3
Mineral products
5.0
Vegetable products
6.5
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
10
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Armenia – Banking System (1)
Two – Tier – Universal Banking System
Central Bank of Armenia
Commercial Banks
Number of Banks
21
Number of Branches
269
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
11
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Armenia Banking Sector (2)
2005/06 figures
( m USD) (as of 30.06.2006)
Total Assets
Loans to customers
Deposits from customers
Capital
1143.3
494.9
611.8
243.2
Penetration Ratios (in%)(2005)
TA/ GDP
Loans / GDP
Deposits / GDP
25.4
8.26
11.8
ROA
ROE
3.48
16.69
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
12
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Armenia – Banking System (2) - Concentration
Total Assets
15%
HSBC Bank
Armenia
Ardshininvestbank
11%
41%
Conversebank
Armsavingsbank/
VTB Bank
ACBA
7%
Armeconombank
Other 15 Banks
10%
8%
8%
same concentration applies to loans and deposits
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
13
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Armenia – Banking System – Recent Developments
• Sovereign Risk Rating → (Fitch) BB• CBA Capital Requirements USD 5m/ USD 10m
• Newcomers / M&As ( →Cascade, →Vneshtorgbank
took over Armsavingsbank )
• Foreign Investors (→ Converse Bank foreign investor
expected, →ACBA ( Credit Agricole))
• International Donors’ Programs (→ Housing
Program, Renewable Energy Program)
Finanzgruppe
14
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
Structure, Political Situation,Economic
Fundamentals
Azerbaijan
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
15
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Map of Azerbaijan , Structural Data
2005 figures
Size
86,600 sqkm
Population 7.9 million
91 inh./sqkm
GDP/capita USD 1582
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
16
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Azerbaijan – Political Situation (2006)
•
Internal situation
•
Foreign politics
•
Challenges
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
17
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Azerbaijan – Political Situation (2006)
Internal Situation
•
Nov. 2005 parliamentary elections confirmed ruling
YAP (New Azerbaijan Party)
•
Political rivals within ruling party marginalised
•
Opposition weak respectively surpressed
•
2008 presidential elections, challenge for
Ilham Aliyev
•
Secular regime, fundamentalist forces not
important
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
18
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Azerbaijan – Political Situation (2006)
External Situation
•
Unsolved Karabakh dispute
•
No major conflict areas with Russia
•
Smooth cooperation with Georgia
•
Joint Azeri/Georgian/Turkish gas-pipeline and
further projects
•
Present government supported by Western oil- and
gas industries
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
19
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Azerbaijan – Main Economic Fundamentals
Contribution to8%GDP
19%
Agriculture and
Mining
Industry and
Manufacturing
7%
Transport and
Communication
Construction
10%
47%
Trade
9%
others
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
20
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Azerbaijan – Main Economic Fundamentals
2005
2006 expected
GDP (bn USD)
12.5
18,9
Real GDP growth (%)
26.4
32.5
CPI (%)
5.3
7.9
Unemployment (%)
1.2
1.3
Export (fob) (m USD)
6400
10600
Import (fob) (m USD)
- 4100
-4600
Current Account (m USD)
- 700
2300
Currency Reserves
1192
1500
Total External Debt (bn
1.9
2.2
Debt Service/ Exports (%)
4.0
3.0
FDI (m USD)
3700
1800
Budget Deficit (in % GDP)
Plus 0.7
Plus 0.3
USD)
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
21
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Azerbaijan – Foreign Trade (2005)
Main Trading Partners
% of Exports
% of Imports
Italy
30.3
Russia
17.7
France
9.4
UK
9.1
Russia
6.6
Kazakhst.
2.3
Turkey
6.3
Turkey
7.4
Main Items in %
Exports
Imports
Petroleum products
76.8
Machinery
33.3
Food products
7.5
Petroleum Products
11.9
Petrochemicals
3.0
Metals
11.6
Metals
2.4
Food products
10.6
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
22
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Azerbaijan – Banking System
Two – Tier – Universal Banking System
National Bank of Azerbaijan
Commercial Banks
Number of Banks
44
Number of Branches
374
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
23
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Azerbaijan Banking Sector (1)
2005 figures
( m USD)
Total Assets
Loans to customers
Deposits from customers
Capital
2455.3
1568.4
1402.1
426.4
Penetration Ratios (in%)
TA/ GDP
Loans / GDP
Deposits / GDP
19.6
12.5
11.2
ROA
ROE
2.93
16.9
24
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Azerbaijan – Banking System (2) - Concentration
Total Assets
other 37 banks
Bank Standard
Is B.Azerbaijan
Unibank
Technikabank
Bank of Baku
Respublika
IBA
28.5%
6.3%
2.5%
2.1%
3.0%
3.2%
2.5%
51.0%
29%
other 37
banks
Bank
Standard
Is
B.Azerbaijan
Unibank
IBA
51%
Technikabank
Bank of Baku
Respublika
6%
3% 3%
IBA
3%
2%
3%
same concentration applies to loans and deposits > IBA’s stake
53.4 respectively 61.9 %
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
25
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Azerbaijan – Banking System – Recent Developments
• National Bank’s regulation improvements
• Centralized Credit Register
• Deposit Insurance System
• New AZM denomination, since Jan. 06
• Sovereign Risk Rating →BB (B) Fitch Rating, Ba1 Moody’s
• BoG → Fitch Rating Bc→ applied for Moody’s,→ foreign investor? →major
lenders in 2006: BNP, UBS, Rabobk., Sumitomo
• Others→ Bank Standard offers mortgage finance and opens “private bank”
→ Kapital Bank receives Fitch rating B+1
Finanzgruppe
26
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
Structure, Political Situation,Economic
Fundamentals
Georgia
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
27
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Map of Georgia, Structural Data
Size
69,700 sqkm
Inh./ sqkm 65
2005 figures
Population 4.6 million
GDP/ Capita USD 1543
(51% of population below poverty line, 2003 figures)
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
28
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Georgia – Political Situation (2006)
•
Internal situation
•
Foreign politics
•
Challenges
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
29
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Georgia – Political Situation (2006)
Internal Situation
•
President Saakashvili‘s position firmed
•
Frequent cabinet reshuffle
•
Next elections ( 2008 legislative, presidential
elections rescheduled 2009→ 2008 )
•
Parliamentary reform ( reduction of MPs 235→150)
•
Strange outcome of recent communal elections,
votes reached more than 100%
•
Status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia unsolved
•
Ethnic minorities and separatist challenges
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
30
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Georgia – Political Situation (2006)
External Situation
•
Tensions between Georgia and Russia
•
Russian trade barriers
•
Russian-Georgian versus US-Georgian relations
•
Good relationship with Azerbaijan and Turkey
„Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan“ Pipeline
„South Caucasus Gas Pipeline“
•
Ties with EU based on ENP
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
31
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Georgia – Main Economic Fundamentals
Contribution to GDP
21%
Agriculture
31%
Industry and
Manufacturing
18%
6%
Transport and
Communicati
on
Trade
Construction
13%
11%
others
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
32
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Georgia – Main Economic Fundamentals
2005
2006 expected
GDP (bn USD)
7.1
7.9
Real GDP growth (%)
8.0
10.0
CPI (%)
8.2
8.0 ( but Sept. 11.4!)
Unemployment (%)
13.8
13.0
Export (fob) (m USD)
1360
1500
Import (fob) (m USD)
- 2756
-3200
Current Account (m USD)
- 625
- 800
Currency Reserves
474
Total External Debt (bn USD)
1.7
Debt Service/ Exports (%)
8.15
FDI (m USD)
270
Budget Deficit (in % GDP)
2.7
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
33
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Georgia – Foreign Trade (2005)
Main Trading Partners
% of Exports
% of Imports
Turkey
18.3
Russia
14.0
Russia
16.1
Turkey
11.0
Armenia
8.4
UK
9.3
UK
4.9
Azerbaijan
8.5
Main Items in %
Exports
Ferro Alloys,
Imports
14.8
Copper, Gold
Oil, Gas,
16.0
Electricity
Scrap iron
14.4
Automotives
6.3
Wine+ Mineral
12.6
Tubes + Pipes
4.3
Water
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
34
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Georgia – Banking System (1)
Two – Tier Universal Banking System
National Bank of Georgia
Commercial Banks
Number of Banks
18
Number of Branches
219
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
35
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Georgia Banking Sector (2)
09/2006 figures
( m USD)
Total Assets
Loans to customers
Deposits from customers
Capital
2085.6
1403.2
913.0
354.5
Penetration Ratios in % 2005
TA/ GDP
Loans / GDP
Deposits / GDP
24.5
16.5
12.6
ROA
ROE
2.7
16.4
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
36
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Georgia – Banking System (2) - Concentration
2005
Total Assets
13%
Assets
TBC
23%
Bank of
Georgia
TBC
10%
Cartu Bank
ProCredit
13%
United
Georgian
Bank
Republic
Bank
BoG
11%
23%
7%
same concentration applies to loans and deposits
Other 12
Banks
Finanzgruppe
Sparkassenstiftung für
internationale Kooperation
37
Savings Banks Foundation for International Cooperation (SBFIC)
Georgia – Banking System – Recent Developments
•S&P rating : B/ B+ sovereign risk rating
•Bank Ratings ( BoG rated by Fitch B-/B, Moody’s B3, S&P B+,
TBC rated by Fitch B- )
•Newcomers / M&As ( Intellect Bank→BoG)
•Foreign Investors (Societe’ Generale, Vneshtorgbank Bank
took over United Bank, Citigroup-, Merill Lynch- lending
larger amounts to BoG)
•International Donors’ Programs
• Mortgage Finance/ Agriculture Finance/ Energy
Programs