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EPRI’s Package Power ISO for aMembership Digital Society Karl Stahlkopf Vice President, Power Delivery, EPRI University of Wisconsin October20, 2000 The Reliability Challenge • Process becoming more complex • Increasing bulk power transactions strain grid capacity • Grid expansion is not keeping up with growth • Incentives for expansion are lacking • Infrastructure needs to be upgraded KES 2 Transactions Increasing Exponentially TVA Interchange Transactions 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 KES 3 1996 1997 1998 1999 Grid Expansion Not Keeping Up % • Transmission expansion is less than half of demand growth and getting worse 30 25 20 Electricity Demand 15 10 Transmission Capacity Expansion 5 0 1988-98 KES 4 1999-09 • Distribution construction has fallen 10% in real terms over last decade U.S. Transmission 10-Yr Plans* 15,000 13,120 12,877 13,000 Miles Added 11,761 12,649 11,000 10,400 8,851 9,000 6,818 7,000 5,834 5,556 5,000 90 KES 5 91 92 93 Year 94 95 96 97 98 Background: Problems Increasing 1965 1977 1994 1996 1998 1999 2000 KES 6 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – November: Northeast blackout July: New York City blackout January: WSCC breakup (Northridge earthquake) December: WSCC breakup July 2: WSCC cascading outage August 10: WSCC cascading outage June: MAPP breakup July: Chicago (100,000 customers) July: Midwest price spikes to $10,000 MWh December: San Francisco tripoff July: New York City (200,000 customers) July: Chicago (100,000 customers) July: Midwest price spikes to $6,000 MWh August: Chicago (“Loop” business district) May: PJM power voltage reductions and curtailments May: New England price spikes to $6000 MWh June: California outages and price increases Rise of the Digital Economy • Phase 1 -- Computers • Phase 2 -- Embedded processors – Now 30 times as many stand-alone chips as in computers • Phase 3 -- Networks – One million Web sites – 200 million computers worldwide – E-commerce = 2% of American GDP KES 7 Challenges for Electric Power • Quantity – IT alone accounts for 10-13% U.S. electricity consumption – 80% energy growth is being met by electricity • Quality – Grid delivers 3-nines reliability (99.9% reliable) – Microprocessors require 9-nines reliability (99.9999999%) – Even brief outages can cost a company $ millions KES 8 Rise of the Digital Economy 4 13% Digital Power 50% TkWh Analog Power 2 1980 2000 2020 Demand for “digital quality” power is growing rapidly KES 9 Two Reliability Goals • Increase transmission capacity and enhance reliability to support a stable wholesale power market • Upgrade distribution infrastructure to support integration of low-cost power from transmission system with new DR options Don’t try to Gold-Plate the Grid KES 10 The Effect in Silicon Valley • “The impact of momentary interruptions of power is extremely costly in terms of lost productivity and potentially damaged equipment at Oracle….Whether the electricity was free or cost three times as much would have absolutely no effect on the cost of our product.” – Mike Wallach • “What is self-sufficiency worth to us [Oracle]? Millions of dollars per hour.” – Jeff Byron • “Sun Microsystems has estimated that a blackout costs up to $1 million per minute” – Larry Owens, Silicon Valley Power KES 11 Consumer Response: Market for Backup Power Takes Off 1 MW Gen-Sets Units Ordered 4500 Output GW 9 4000 8 3500 7 3000 6 2500 2000 Total Output Units Ordered 1500 5 4 1000 3 500 2 0 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Source: Bechtel KES 12 1 0 EPRI’s Response • Short Term: Form the “Reliability Initiative” • Long Term: Form the “Consortium for Electrical Infrastructure to Support a Digital Society” (CEIDS) KES 13 Reliability Initiative • Approximately $5.7 million raised so far • 40 utilities have signed agreements • 4 more are pending • Further interest expected as word gets out KES 14 Transmission System Assessments • Grid complexity requires new analytical approach • Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) effective for analyzing multiple factors in complex systems • PRA beta-test led to modifications • Grid reliability study of two of three Interconnections – In close cooperation with NERC-RAS KES 15 Distribution System Assessments • Systems differ greatly in architecture, equipment, and operations; therefore representative systems will be analyzed using deterministic methods – – – – KES 16 Urban radial, largely underground (ComEd) Urban network, largely underground (ConEd) Urban/suburban radial, largely overhead (DQE) Suburban, combined overhead & underground (Duke) Digital Society Initiative • Form a “Consortium for Electrical Infrastructure to Support a Digital Society” (CEIDS) • Structure of Initiative based on broad industry participation – Users of “Digital Electricity” – Equipment Suppliers/Vendors – Electric Utilities KES 17 CEIDS Initiative • Form Consortium early in 2001 • Goals – Raise $20 Million from Private Sector – Seek matching Public Sector Funding – Initiate a research program to insure that “digital quality” electricity can be made available at a reasonable cost KES 18 Meeting the Reliability Challenge 9-nines UPS under desk (Logarithmic Scale) Power reliability To the Chip Capacitor on circuit board 6-nines UPS Substation To the Plug PQ Park On-Site DR 3-nines To Customer Premises Grid Technologies A combination of technologies will be required KES 19 Conclusion • Grid reliability is being challenged by the needs of a digital society • Industry is responding aggressively • EPRI’s Reliability and CEIDS initiatives focus developing a national response KES 20