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Poland International Trade Background History -Poland is located in the northern portion of central Europe -The capital of Poland is Warsaw. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html Background History Size: 312,685 km (slightly smaller than New Mexico) Land: 304,465 km Water: 8,220 km Coastline: 491 km (Baltic Sea) Terrain: Mostly flat, mountainous along southern border Major Natural Resources: coal, sulfur, copper, and silver. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html Background History Population: 38,635,144 (2004) Age 0-14= 16.7% Age 15-64= 70.3% Age 65+= 13% Population Growth Rate: .03% Hungary’s= -.26%, Czech Republic= -.05%, Germany= 0%, Belarus= -.09, Ukraine= -.63%, Lithuania= -.3, Slovakia= .15% Life Expectancy: 74.74 years old http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html Government Type: Republic Divided into 16 provinces President elected by open elections Bi-cameral legislature Senate (100 seats) Sejm (460 seats) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html International Trade 1945-1970: Communist government restricts trade to only Soviet countries. Poland became very dependent on Soviet Union. 1971-1980: Government restricts all western European trade. 1981-1990: Poland becomes the fifth largest ship producer in the world. Was most of Poland’s entire trade Export mostly to Soviet Union 1986- Poland amends laws and allows bonds to be sold to foreign investors. State enterprises were allowed to issue bonds and join joint ventures with foreign investment. Did not raise FDI enough to see any change http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/lo/countries/pl/pl_trade.html International Trade in Transition 1989- 2 tier banking system created The Law on Economic Activity Small step to correct rising inflation 1990-1991: “Shock Therapy” opens up trade markets. Significant increases in FDI and Trade % of GDP Increased the previously falling real GDP Corrected the out of control inflation Laws making it safer for foreign investors were put in place Foreign investors mostly only invested if they received management rights http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/lo/countries/pl/pl_trade.html Trade Organizations PHARE signed in 1989 Designed to bring aid from European Communities to Poland and Hungary Assist with political change and new markets First step in eventual admittance to EU The Efta-Poland free trade agreement Signed in Geneva, Switzerland on 10 December 1992, came into effect Sept. 1, 1994. Main Objective To enhance the development of world trade by removing international trade barriers. http://intl.econ.cuhk.edu.hk/rta/index.php?did=24 Trade Organizations World Trade Organization July 1, 1995 Increase of Trade % of GDP after joining European Union (2004) Poland’s foreign trade policy changed drastically after joining the EU. Poland was in direct connection with the economically successful western European Countries. Tightened tariffs and increased customs controls on the eastern border which is the external border of the European Union. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/lo/countries/pl/pl_trade.html Economics Real GDP 300,000,000,000.00 250,000,000,000.00 200,000,000,000.00 Poland GDP 150,000,000,000.00 100,000,000,000.00 50,000,000,000.00 Year http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/ 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 - 1984 Real GDP Value (US $) Poland’s real GDP has steadily risen in the past 25 years since fall of Communism. Drop between 1988-1990 from political instability. Avg. real GDP growth Rate= 3.5% Current real GDP growth Rate= 5% Economics Annual Growth % GDP per capita growth (annual %) 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 (2.00) 1 9 92 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 9 9 (4.00)1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 (6.00) Poland World European Union (8.00) Year •Poland’s growth rate negative initially due to political and economic reform. •Poland has had a higher growth rate annually than the world’s avg. and EU avg. •Except 2001 •Direct relation with increase in real GDP http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohiostate.edu/dataonline/ Total Exports & Imports Total Exports (2005) $ 92,720,000,000 31st largest in the world Total Imports (2005) $95,670,000,000 28th largest in the world http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html Exports Main Export Partners European Union- 70.5% Germany- 30% Italy- 6.1% France- 6% UK- 5.4% Czech Republic- 4.3% Netherlands- 4.3% Rest of World- 29.5% Russia, Hong Kong, United States http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html http://www.foreigntradeexchange.com/countries/poland.html Imports Main Import Partners European Union- 65% Germany- 24.4% France- 6.7% Italy- 8.5% Rest of World- 35% Russia- 7.3% China- 4.6% http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html http://www.foreigntradeexchange.com/countries/poland.html Division of Trade Division of Trade (2 major divisions) Merchandise Exports/Imports Agriculture (raw materials) Crude materials except fuels, Livestock Food Exports- Potatoes, fruit, wheat Fuel Mostly from Russia Oil, natural gas Manufactures Export- Machinery, transport equipment, other misc. manufactured items Import- Chemicals, medicine, cars/motorcycles Ores & metals Crude fertilizers, minerals, scrap metal, glass http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/ Merchandise Exports/Imports Agricultrue (raw materials) Food Fuel Manufactures Ores & Metals Other % of Merchandise Exports/Imports % of Exports $ Amount % of Imports 2 $ 1,075,237,600.00 2 8 $ 4,300,950,400.00 5 4 $ 2,150,475,200.00 9 81 $ 43,547,122,800.00 80 4 $ 2,150,475,200.00 3 1 $ 537,618,800.00 1 Total $ 53,761,880,000.00 % Merchandise Exports 1% 4% 81% Agricultrue (raw materials) Food 2% 8% 4% Fuel $ Amount $ 1,365,444,200.00 $ 3,413,610,500.00 $ 6,144,498,900.00 $ 54,617,768,000.00 $ 2,048,166,300.00 $ 682,722,100.00 $ % Merchandise Imports 1% 3% 68,272,210,000.00 Agricultrue (raw materials) Food 2% 5% 9% Fuel Manufactures Manufactures Ores & Metals Ores & Metals Other http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/ 80% Other Commercial Service Exports/Imports Commercial Service Exports/Imports Computers/Communications and Services Insurance & Financial Services Freight insurance, life insurance, foreign exchange transactions Transport Services International telecommunications, postal, construction, all services-financial Anything relating to the carriage of passengers or movement of freight Travel Services Goods and services consumed by travelers Lodging, meals Commercial Service Exports/Imports % of Commercial Service Exports/Imports % of Exports $ Amount % of Imports Computer, Communications 24 $ 2,680,800,000.00 45 Insurance % Financial Services 3 $ 335,100,000.00 7 Transport Services 36 $ 4,021,200,000.00 22 Travel Services 36 $ 4,021,200,000.00 27 Other 1 $ 111,700,000.00 Total $ 11,170,000,000.00 % Commercial Service Exports $ 10,526,000,000.00 % Commercial Service Imports Computer, Communications 1% 24% 36% 3% Insurance % Financial Services $ Amount $ 4,736,700,000.00 $ 736,820,000.00 $ 2,315,720,000.00 $ 2,842,020,000.00 Computer, Communications 27% 44% Transport Services Insurance % Financial Services Transport Services Travel Services 36% 22% Other http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/ Travel Services 7% Net Exports Poland’s international trade has shown improvement in the last 4 years. Net exports are moving toward the positive while total imports continue to grow rapidly. Net Exports In Billions $ in U.S. Dollars 120 100 80 Exports 60 Imports 40 Net Exports 20 0 -20 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/ 2003 2004 2005 Poland & Hungary Poland & Hungary very similar paths of transition. Communism fell at almost same time (1989-1991) Both declared “shock therapy” Hungary’s much more gradual Led to a slower and less effective transition initially. Real wages plummeted in 1994-1995 bringing about a 2nd “shock therapy” Rebounded the economy Poland’s shock therapy was effective very quickly Modern Governments Poland- Republic Hungary- Parliamentary Democracy http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib. ohio-state.edu/dataonline/ Inflation of Consum er Prices (annual %) 25.00 600.00 20.00 500.00 15.00 Hungary Poland 10.00 % Inflation % Unemployed Unem ploym ent (% of Total Labor Force) 5.00 400.00 Hungary 300.00 Poland 200.00 100.00 - 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 02 20 00 19 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 - Year Year GDP Per Capita GDP Com pared Poland/Hungary 300,000,000,000.00 4,000.00 Hungary 3,000.00 Poland 2,000.00 GDP Value 5,000.00 1,000.00 250,000,000,000.00 200,000,000,000.00 Hungary GDP 150,000,000,000.00 100,000,000,000.00 Poland GDP 20 04 20 02 20 00 19 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 Year http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/ 19 84 19 87 19 90 19 93 19 96 19 99 20 02 50,000,000,000.00 - 19 90 GDP Per Capita 6,000.00 Year Trade % of GDP Trade % of GDP 200.00 150.00 Hungary 100.00 Poland 50.00 20 02 20 00 19 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 - Year 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - Poland Year http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/ 20 03 20 01 19 97 19 99 19 95 19 93 19 89 19 91 Hungary 19 87 19 85 FDI % of GDP FDI % of GDP (annual %)