Download Bottom-up clustering and top-down shattering of scale

Spatial disparities of
adaptation to crisis in China
and its consequences
Maria Csanádi
Institute of Economics
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Outline
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Hypothesis: impact of external dynamics on
system transformation
Analytical approach: the concept of transformation
Adaptation pressures caused by the crisis
Sensitivity to adaptation pressures
Spatial impacts of the crisis
Spatial disparities in efforts to overcome the crisis
Long-term spatial impact of short-term
interventions
Hypothesis: sensitivity to the
impact of global dynamics
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Global growth, economic integration
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Direct impact: macroeconomic growth
Indirect impact:
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Acceleration of economic transformation
Increase of political legitimacy
Postponement of preconditions for political transformation
Global recession, economic integration
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Direct impact: macroeconomic decline
Indirect impact:
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Slow-down of economic transformation
Decline of political legitimacy
Formation of preconditions for political transformation
System transformation in partystates
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The party-state network is retreating as a social system from
politically monopolized economic, political and social subspheres, while
The sub-spheres of a new social system are emerging outside of it
Order, speed, conditions of transformation of sub-fields vary
according to the distribution of power in party-state networks
Directions and speed of development of one subfield may change
temporary or for longer-term due to external and internal impacts
Retreating
party-state
network
Emerging
new system
Transformation during global growth
External impact: decline of exportand import growth
Decline of the GDP and FDI growth
No contraction, only slow-down
of relative speed
Uncertainties
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Time-span of prevalence of external and
internal adaptation pressures
Sensitivity of the transformation process to
adaptation pressures and to their extension in
time
Extent of political sensitivity and adaptive
reactions on the short term
Reversibility of the slow-down process due to
changes in external and internal impacts
Spatial propagation of adaptation pressures
and reactions
Adaptation pressures prevailed
short-term
Source: China
Data Center MU
Adaptation pressures prevailed
short-term
Source: China
Data Center MU
Even short-term pressures
provoqued sensitive reactions
Source: China
Data Center MU
Even short-term pressures
provoqued sensitive reactions
Source: China
Data Center MU
Behind the scene: expanding state
role through the stimulus plan
4,000,000,000,000.00 CNY
= 612,062,609,166.63 USD
= GDP 13% (2008)
Source: Economic observer On-line eeo.com.cn China's Stimulus Package: A Breakdown of Spending. 2009.03.07
Compensatory role of state
intervention: infrastructure building
Source: China
Data Center MU
Spatial focus of increased FDI
Source: China
Data Center MU
Spatial focus of growth of
investment in fixed assets
Source: China
Data Center MU
The dynamics of output of the stateowned field in the manufacturing
Source: China
Data Center MU, NBS
Regional Statistics
Activized market field at centralwestern regions in manufacturing
Source: China
Data Center MU, NBS
Regional Statistics
Dynamics of the output at state-owned
field in the construction industry
Source: China
Data Center MU, NBS
Regional Statistics
Activized market: dynamics of the
market field in the construction
Source: China
Data Center MU, NBS
Regional Statistics
Global crisis impact on system
transformation
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Time-span of external and internal adaptation pressures
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Global crisis exerted temporary adaptation pressures
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Incite different adaptations that have different consequences on
transformation
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Direction of transformation dynamics:
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Differences in impact and reactions in space
No simultaneous contraction of the state and market fields
Speed of transformation:
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Instead of contraction, only temporary slow-down occurred
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Reason of slow-down: the temporary decline of the market field and
expansion of the state-owned field due to intervention
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Short-term adaptation preserved political legitimacy
Mismatch of state intervention and
crisis impact
Mismatch
Crisis direct impact
Stimulus plan direct
impact
In location
Coastal
Central and western
Priority sectors
Manufacture
Infrastructural
Trade orientation
Export
Domestic
Participant
ownership
Enterprize size
Private
State owned
SME
Large
Affiliation
Foreign
Domestic
Longer term consequences of
short-term intervention
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The focus mismatch of crisis and government
intervention has multiple dimensions and multiple
consequences
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Regional focus of state intervention might decrease
spatial disparties of development in several dymensions
Sectoral focus of state intervention in infrastructure
compensated decline in manufacturing: growth of
internal demand activates other sectors and decreases
export dependency
Ownership focus of state intervention expanded the state
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sphere but also activized the market sphere
Size focus of state intervention also activized SMEs
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Questions for further research
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How do these consequences appear in
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The spatial disparities of regional development,
The economic, export and labor force structures
Enterprise investment behavior, trade orientation and spatial
strategies
What are the differences among those activized by state
intervention and those directly impacted by the crisis
The temporary and longer-term migrant spatial routes,
migrant motivations and bargaining capacties and living
conditions and migrant gender structure
Economic transformation
Field-work in collaboration with BNU, Fudan, IE CASS
Thank you for your
attention