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Credit Rating of Bulgaria Bulgaria has proven higher investment credibility June 2004 Standard&Poor’s gave an investment- grade foreign-currency rating BBВ (stable outlook) by Standard&Poor’s; BBВ (stable outlook) by Fitch IBCA; Bа1 (stable outlook) by Moody’s; BBВ (positive outlook) by the Japan Credit Rating Agency 1 Estat Index for Bulgarian Business Climate 6 5,27 5 4 4,51 3,33 3 2 -3 -1,84 -2,55 Ju ly '04 04 A pr' 4 Ja n' 0 Oct ' 03 03 Ju ly ' 03 3 A pr' -1,56 Ja n' 0 Ju ly ' -2 -0,61 Oct ' 02 02 0 -1 1,67 1,377 1 2 Economic Policy Priorities Increasing the competitiveness of Bulgarian economy through measures for improving the business environment; Support for investments and innovations by creating the requisite infrastructure; Reforms in the sphere of education and development of science as essential elements in building a knowledge-based economy. 3 Record FDI performer 2004 and ‘sector drivers’ dynamics FDI as % of GDP, 2004E 10 9.2 FDI per capita (EURO) 10.1% (according to preliminary data) 8 Bulgaria Romania Slovakia 600 5.6 6 Czech Republic % 5.0 4.4 500 4.1 3.9 4 400 3.1 300 2.2 2 1.2 200 100 0 Bulgaria Romania Estonia Czech Rep. Slovakia Croatia Hungary Poland FDI sector shares, past three years 40 Slovenia 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 FDI stock by sector, 1998 – 2004 37 35 28 30 25 23 Other 24 17% 20 16 15 15 10 10 10 7 Tourism & Real 7% 2003 Industry 19% Estate 0 Finance&banking Construction Finance 6 0 2002 25% 2% 11 5 % Industry 2004 Energy Telecom Telecom 12% Trade 18% Sources: BNB, InvestBulgaria Agency, Bank Austria Creditanstalt Economic Research, September 2004 4 Key projects 2004 Greenfield Public Project Investor Sector Won by ŞIŞE CAM (Turkey) Gla ss indust ry Cope nha ge n Airport s ( De nm a rk) Lindner (Germany) Real Estate HIT (Germany) Retail trade 35-year operating concessions on Varna and Bourgas airports Gruppo Societa Gas Rimini (Italy) 35-year licence to supply gas to Trakia Bulgarian-Portuguese consortium Motorway Trakia concession OTE (Greece) Mobile telecommunications Mobiltel (Austria) Privatization Investor Sector CEZ (Czech Rep.) Electricity distribution EVN (Austria) Electricity distribution Viva Ventures / Advent International (USA, UK) Telecommunications E.ON (Germany) Electricity distribution 1st high-speed, thirdgeneration (3G) mobile services Bulgarian Telecommunications Company (BTC) privatization was the investment ‘milestone’ to effect the whole telecom market 5 Prospective competitiveness Average labor cost per hour, USD outlook Hungary Czech Rep Poland 7 4.92 6 5 Average real wages (% change yoy) Bulgaria Bulgaria 6.52 14.0 5.73 12.0 3.51 6.0 1.34 1.03 1 Poland 8.0 4.6 4 2 Hungary 10.0 3.99 3 Czech Republic 4.0 2.0 0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F 2006F 2007F 2008F -2.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F 2006F 2007F 2008F For the next few years real wages in Bulgaria are expected to grow at some 2% on annual basis; real wages growth rate in Bulgaria will be similar to that in CEE countries 540 530 520 510 500 490 Alarming decline in educational performance in schools reduces competitiveness in perspective 480 470 460 450 1995 1999 2003 Source: Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study,TIMSS 2003, EIU 6 Bulgaria in global ‘rethinking’ of hi-tech leaders MARCH 28, 2005: GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE TESTING PROGRAM ON A GLOBAL SCALE (BRAINBENCH) FINDS HIGH CONCENTRATION OF TECHNICAL SKILLS IN EASTERN EUROPE Surprising results that challenge commonly-held views about concentrations of the world"s technical talent pools: Eastern European nations such as Romania, Latvia, Bulgaria, and Belarus lead Western countries such as the U.K., Australia, Germany, and France in total certifications. As a percentage of total population, Latvia, Estonia, and Bulgaria lead the world. "We"re used to hearing in the press about technology skills being outsourced and concentrated in Asia, primarily India but considering how relevant English is to things like programming languages, the strong results across nearly all of Eastern Europe are fascinating. Looking at the numbers makes you rethink some of the usual assumptions about the global workforce skills pool.” Mike Russiello, Brainbench’s President and Chief Executive Officer 7 Thank you! Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry 42, Parchevich Str., BG-1058 Sofia Bulgaria Tel.: (+359 2) 987 25 28 Fax: (+359 2) 987 32 09 Web: http://www.bcci.bg E-mail [email protected] 8