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FMI Ontario Chapter PD Day
Business Planning and Program Evaluation
October 21, 2009
Production in Canada and the U.S. has recently stabilized
Canada and U.S. Monthly GDP
trillions 2002$
trillions 2005$
Canada
(right axis)
U.S.
(left axis)
Sources: Statistics Canada, Macroeconomic Advisers
2
The labour market in Canada has weakened significantly
Unemployment Rate and Employment
millions
per cent
Unemployment rate
(left axis)
Employment
(right axis)
Source: Statistics Canada
3
Private sector forecasts suggest the Canadian economy
will not fully recover – reach its potential – until 2014
Output Gap
per cent of potential output
Shaded areas
indicate periods
of recovery
Projection
2014
Sources: Finance Canada (1975-2007); Office of the PBO (2008-2014)
4
PBO estimates suggest medium-term structural deficits
Federal Budgetary Balances
$ billions
-0.1
Budgetary balance
Structural balance
Source: July 2009 Economic and Fiscal Assessment, Office of the PBO
5
Federal debt ratio historically low but current fiscal
structure might not be sustainable going forward
Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio
per cent of nominal GDP
Projection
2013-14:
33%
Medium-term objective of 25% debt ratio
first set in Budget 2004 (by 2014-15);
most recent in the 2008 Economic and
Fiscal Statement (by 2012-13)
Sources: Finance Canada; Office of the PBO
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Longer-Term Policy Challenges
•
Population ageing
•
Climate change
• Productivity and structural adjustments
•
Regional and household income disparities
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