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Middle Powers During Great Power
Transitions: China’s Rise and the
Future of Canada-U.S. Relations
Bruce Gilley, Portland State University
China’s Rising Power
Relative Shares of
World GDP (%)
CHINA
CHINA
CANADA
Power vs. Purpose
Power Transitions
• China seeks to expand its
global influence using
military, economic, cultural,
and political power
• Canada-U.S. conflict
Purpose Transitions
• China seeks to revise
dominant global liberal
norms in security,
governance, and trade
• Canada-U.S. cooperation
DOMINANT
POWER
U.S.
GREAT
POWERS
China, Japan
DOMINANT
POWERS
U.S.,
China
GREAT
POWERS
Japan,
Indonesia
MIDDLE POWERS
MIDDLE POWERS
Indonesia, South
Korea, etc.
South Korea,
Australia, etc.
SMALL POWERS
SMALL POWERS
Canada, Philippines, etc.
Canada, Philippines, etc.
Power Transition in East Asia
Investment to/from Canada (China
as % of Japan)
China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan-born
population (% total population)
Similarity of UN Voting
70
60
% Similar
50
Votes (5-Year
Moving Avg) 40
30
20
10
0
CANADA-CHINA
CANADA-U.S.