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New Principles for Economic Success
in the Age of Biocapacity Constraints
A Euro Crisis … or a Resource Crisis?
Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D.
STOA Lecture – November 29, 2011
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
3
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
“today”
Global Footprint
--------------------------- = 1.5
Global Biocapacity
4
The Ecological Footprint
CARBON footprint
5
Accounting Framework for
Ecological Services
Biocapacity:
How much
bioproductive area
is available to us?
Ecological Footprint:
How much bioproductive
area do we demand?
6
The Basic Equation
Amount per year
Yield = ------------------------Area
The Basic Equation
Amount per year
Area = ------------------------Yield
Translate area from ha into global ha…
Ecological Footprint
per person
Italy
Biocapacity
per person
9
Ecological Footprint
per person
Italy
Biocapacity
per person
Composition of Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
Commodity prices (WB index)
Source: World Bank – pink sheet
11
Italy
Biocapacity Deficit
x
World Commodity Prices
=
Cost of Biocapacity Deficit
12
Cost of Italy’s
Biocapacity Deficit
(WMP of all that
cannot be renewed
within Italy)
Italy’s GDP per
person
Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
13
Change in Italian’s
relative income
RATIO in GNI per capita to world total
(in constant 2000 US$)
8E-10
7E-10
Italian's relative income
6E-10
world average
5E-10
Italian's share in world income
4E-10
3E-10
2E-10
1E-10
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
14
2
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe
Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
DE
BY
AT
BE
ES
SK
FR
FI
GR
NL
HU
IT
IR
PO
PT
CZ
UK
RO
RU
RS
CH
SE
UA
DK
15
7E-10
1.6E-09
RATIO in GNI per capita to world total
(in constant 2000 US$)
1.8E-09
RATIO in GNI per capita to world total
(in constant 2000 US$)
8E-10
1.4E-09
italian's relative income
6E-10
world average
1.2E-09
5E-10
Italian's share in world income
4E-10
world average
8E-10
3E-10
American's share in world income
6E-10
2E-10
4E-10
1E-10
2E-10
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
0
2010
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
3.5E-10
1E-09
8E-10
RATIO in GNI per capita to world total
(in constant 2000 US$)
9E-10
RATIO in GNI per capita to world total
(in constant 2000 US$)
American's relative income
1E-09
German's relative income
7E-10
German's share in world income
5E-10
world average
2.5E-10
world average
6E-10
Chinese's relative income
3E-10
2E-10
1.5E-10
4E-10
3E-10
2E-10
1E-10
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Chinese's share in world income
1E-10
5E-11
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Costs of resources Ecuador’s residents consume but
Ecuador’s ecosystems cannot regenerate
(at world market price)
$50,000
Factory
world…
or?
$40,000
$35,000
Switzerland
$30,000
United States of America
GN I per resident in US Dolla rs (2 0 0 0 ))
$45,000
$25,000
Denmark
$20,000
Germany
United Kingdom
France
$15,000
Italy
Greece
Spain
$10,000
Portugal
$5,000Mexico
W orld
-5
-4
-3
-2
Bioca pa city Deficit
-1
or
India
$- China
0
Ecuador
1
2
3
Bioca pa city Rem a inder (gha / ca p)
Biocapacity Deficit and Absolute Income (1980 – 2007)
1.8
1.6
1.4
United States of America
1.2
Fra ction of w orld tota l GN I held by a vera ge resident
(billionths)
Switzerland
…global
auction?
Denmark
1
United Kingdom
France
0.8
Germany
Italy
0.6
Greece
Spain
0.4
Portugal
Mexico
0.2 W orld
-5
-4
-3
Bioca pa city Deficit
-2
-1
or
India
0China
0
Ecuador
1
2
3
Bioca pa city Rem a inder (gha / ca p)
Biocapacity Deficit and Global Income Share (1980 – 2007)
21
Insights
• Downward escalator of resource costs
outpaces economies’ ability to run
upwards.
• Euro crisis is a symptom of a
deepening resource crunch.
• Turning around resource trends is a
necessary condition for Europe’s
economy to recover.
22
New principles
• Nature has a budget. Do you know
how much biocapacity you have?
and how much you use?
• Biocapacity is the currency of the 21st
century. Blindness to biocapacity
budget costs lives & opportunities.
• Self-interest for countries and cities to
act is overwhelming
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