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21 cm Intensity mapping with the Green Bank Telescope: Interpretation and prospects Kiyoshi Masui E. Switzer, K. Bandura, L.-M. Calin, T.C. Chang,X.-L. Chen, Y.-C. Li, Y.-W. Liao, A. Natarajan, U.-L. Pen, J. B. Peterson, J. R. Shaw, T. C. Voytek Columbus, Ohio April 19, 2013 How do we interpret the cross-power and auto-power measurements? We have bounded the signal from above and below! Pursue a Bayesian analysis to obtain a combined constraint: Pursue a Bayesian analysis to obtain a combined constraint: More parameters than we have measurements, but that's okay because of priors (constraints) on nuisance parameters. Pursue a Bayesian analysis to obtain a combined constraint: Do the usual: write down priors, apply Bayes' Theorem, marginalize nuisance parameters. Pursue a Bayesian analysis to obtain a combined constraint: 68% and 95% confidence intervals for each k-bin. In context: Noterdaeme 2012 HI is fuel for star formation, evolution and clustering is important clue for galaxies. In context: if 0.65 < bHI < 1, but really bHI = ? Could break degeneracy using Kaiser effect Noterdaeme 2012 HI is fuel for star formation, evolution and clustering is important clue for galaxies. Challenges Instrumental Considerations Wideband gain stability Estimating foreground modes with sufficient fidelity to remove them Polarized beam response Foregrounds are estimated from the map. How much information does the map have about the foregrounds? 256 spectral channels, so even 100 modes is okay? Actually limited by angular DOF Only 30 (90) independent pixels We would like 10 times more area Foregrounds only smooth in Stokes I, if beam is smooth Polarization leakage mixes in Q, U Improve things by smoothing Calibrate it out... Future Prospects More Area Have lots of angular DOF ~ 1000 Smooth out beam effects Have more signal-to-noise to work with Brightness fluctuation Mean HI density and bias are degenerate Can be broken with Kaiser redshift space distortions Reid, BOSS 2012 See Masui et. al. 2010 WiggleZ is a BAO survey High density, large area, large scales VIPERS is smaller area MUCH higher galaxy density Good survey to go after Kaiser in cross-correlation GBT Multibeam, Parkes Have some Parkes L-band multibeam data, working on it GBT multibeam prototype testing this summer