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EMSI
Annual Conference
Labor Mkt. Outlook
Coeur d’Alene, ID
September 12, 2012
Bob Uhlenkott
Chief Research Officer
Idaho Department of Labor
Research Collaborations
• Labor Market Information shops are
collaborating with education institutions all
across the country via State Longitudinal Data
Systems (SLDS) and Workforce Data Quality
Initiative (WDQI) grants.
• State Education and Workforce goals vary
across the country but have common
theme. Build a broader, smarter and more
educated workforce
Return-On-Investment
Educations Return on Investment for Every Dollar Invested
$20
$18
$16
$18
$14
$12
$10
$10
$8
$9
$10
$6
$4
$2
$0
Associate degree or Postsecondary
vocational training
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree or Bachelor's or
First professional degree or Doctoral
higher degree, plus work experience
degree
$60B -- Idaho Gross Domestic Product
80,000
2013
70,000
60,000
$57.9 Billion
$60 Billion
50,000
2016
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Realized GDP
Bureau of Economic Analysis - June 2012
3.3% Annual Growth
1.3% Annual Growth
Idaho Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate
12
(9.6%) Previous Record
Dec-1982 to Feb-1983
10
8.3 %
7.5 %
July 2012
Percent
8
6
4
2
(2.7%) Nov-2006 to Mar-2007
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the US Department of Labor - June 2012.
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
0
7/1/2012
5/1/2012
3/1/2012
1/1/2012
11/1/2011
9/1/2011
7/1/2011
5/1/2011
3/1/2011
1/1/2011
11/1/2010
9/1/2010
7/1/2010
5/1/2010
3/1/2010
1/1/2010
11/1/2009
9/1/2009
7/1/2009
5/1/2009
3/1/2009
1/1/2009
11/1/2008
9/1/2008
7/1/2008
5/1/2008
3/1/2008
1/1/2008
11/1/2007
9/1/2007
7/1/2007
5/1/2007
Conference Board Data (July 2012)
26,000
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24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
0%
-1%
-8%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
January 2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
January 2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
January 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
January 2012
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Idaho Non-Farm Jobs
Year Over Year Percentage Change
2%
1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
Idaho Non-farm Jobs Data - June 2012 - Idaho Department of Labor
EMSI Uses in Idaho LMI Shop
EMSI Adds Value:
 Input-Output Models/Multipliers
 Release-able Data Sets (estimates
confidential cells)
 Data Mining in Smaller Geographies
 Quick and Easy Data Mining and
Formatting
Industry and Occupational Projections
STP - 2009 to 2011 – Jobs were projected to grow annually at .30%.
 Underestimated Non-farm Jobs in the fourth quarter of 2011 by
140 Jobs (off by .023%).
STP - 2010 to 2012 – Jobs were projected to grow annually at .33%.
 Growth expected to be near projection.
STP - 2011 to 2013 – Jobs are projected to grow annually at 1.2%.
 Too early to tell, but growth is slower than the projection in the first
six months.
LTP - 2010 to 2020 – Jobs projected to grow at 1.7%.
 More to be shared this afternoon.
Education and Training Pay!
Thank
You!
Bob Uhlenkott
[email protected]
208.332.3570 ext. 3217