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Cost Model Development using Costmod Dave Stockton Taqui Shaik Contents Basics of the cost model development process Basics of Costmod – project scoping and the model identification process Exercise: Developing cost models using Costmod Costmod – EPSRC Funded research project. Collaborators included: Airbus, Rolls-Royce & Cognition Identified Existing Methods • Data Identification - methods for identifying variables required to generate models • Data Collection - methods by which the data required to generate models could be collected • Data Analysis - methods by which the cost estimating relationships could be determined Data Identification Methods • • • • • • • • Affinity Diagrams Brain storming Case Base Reasoning Consensus building. Data mining. Fishbone diagram. Force field diagrams Fuzzy logic • • • • • • • • Heuristics. Histogram. Normal test plot. Radar chart. Relationship diagrams Repertory grids Scatter plot. Simulation Data Collection Methods • 2-D & 3-D Flow Diagrams • Activity Sampling • Analytical Estimating • Checklists • Direct observation • Film analysis sheet. • Flow Process Charting • Interview • Methods Time Measurement • • • • • Operational Experiments Outline Process Chart Production Studies Questionnaires Records, Files and Documents • Time Study • Video tape recording • Patents Data Collection Methods • • • • • • • Neural networks Factorial Analysis Fuzzy logic Genetic Algorithm Least Squares Linear Programming Multiple Linear Regression • Multiple Non Linear Regression • Pareto Analysis (80-20 rule) • Queueing Models • Simultaneous Equations • Stepwise Regression Analysis • System Pyramid. • Taguchi Methods Data Sources COSTMOD Cost Model Development Process Process Scoping •define processes & products that need models • define the characteristics of these cost models Data Collection & Model Identification Develop the Cost Estimating Relationships Selection of data sources and data collection methods Project Scoping – 1 of 6 Project Title: Product / Process Name: Current development state of the process is best described as: Project Scoping 2 of 6 The volume of production is best described as: The type of production process is best described as: Identify the product / process experts: Project Scoping 3 of 6 Strategic Tactical Operational Cost Reduction Process Time Reduction Process Evaluation Process Improvement Process Development Product Evaluation Product Improvement Product Development Standard Data Generation Business Objective and Decision Levels applicable to the cost model Project Scoping 4 of 6 Discipline / Function Experience (Years) Model Owner: Model Developer: Model User: Model Function: < 1 Week Time available to collect data: Time available to input data: 1-4 Weeks 1-6 Months >6 Months Project Scoping 5 of 6 Model use start date: Model use end date: Man/Hours Available to Collect Data: Man/Hours Available to Input Data: Man/Hours Available to Develop CER: Enter required Estimating Accuracy <5%, 5%-10%, 10%-15% ….. >25% Project Scoping 6 of 6 Resource Level of Detail Product Feature Direct Material Cost Level 1 Product Level Indirect Material Cost Level 2 Component Level Level 3 Component Feature Level Direct Equipment Cost Indirect Equipment Cost Process Feature Level 1 Machine Level Direct Labour Cost Level 2 Machine Assembly Level Indirect Labour Cost Level 3 Machine Sub-Assembly Level Direct Process Time Indirect Process Time Process Activity Level 1 Process Level Level 2 Process Operation Level Level 3 Operational Activity Level Model identification process Model identification process Dependant Resource Paired Comparison Product/Component Wing Box Process Wing Box Fabrication Resource Measure Type Variable Recurring Process Time Dependant Variable and Level of Detail Product Feature Level 2 Component Level Product Feature No 1 Top Skin 2 Bottom Skin 3 Front Spar 4 Rear Spar 5 Top Stringer 6 Bottom Stringer 7 Ribs 8 Manholes 1 x x 3 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x x 8 Vote Matrix x x 4 3 x x 5 4 3 3 x x 4 4 x x x 5 8 x x 8 Totals x 5 x 6 3 x x 8 x 6 x 7 x 8 x 7 x 8 x 8 7 8 2 3 4 5 6 1 Model identification process 1st Predictor Resource Paired Comparison Product/Component Wing Box Process Wing Box Fabrication Resource Measure Type Variable Recurring Process Time 1st Predictor Resource and Level of Detail Process Activity Level 2 Process Operation Level No Process Activity 1 Routing 2 Drilling 3 Assembly 4 Treatment 5 Inspection 6 Machining 7 SPF 1 x x x x 4 4 x 5 x x 7 Vote Matrix 1 x x 4 x x 4 5 x x 5 x 4 4 x x 5 x Totals x 5 2 x x 7 1 x x x x x 4 6 7 1 2 7 5 Model identification process 2nd Predictor Resource Paired Comparison Product/Component Wing Box Process Wing Box Fabrication Resource Measure Type Variable Recurring Process Time 2nd Predictor Resource and Level of Detail Process Feature Level 2 Machine Assembly Level No Process Feature 1 Machining Cell 2 Fabricating Cell 3 Treatment Cell 4 Assembly Cell x 2 2 x x 4 Vote Matrix x x 3 4 2 x Totals 4 1 3 2 Model identification process Model identification process Establishing Attributes of the Features and Activities Resource Measure Type Variable Product Feature Level 2 Component Level Process Feature Level 2 Process Activity Level 2 Product Feature Level 2 Machine Assembly Level Process Operation Level Component Level Links Attributes Exercise: Develop a cost model Form groups of 3-4 Use the Costmod process to develop a suitable model for estimating the time required to sharpen a pencil within a medium volume production environment