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Graphical Causal Models: Determining
Causes from Observations
William Marsh
Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis
(RADAR)
Computer Science
RADAR Group, Computer Science
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Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis
Research areas
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Software engineering, safety, finance, legal
A new initiative in medical data analysis: DIADEM
Norman Fenton
Group leader
Martin Neil
http://www.dcs.qmul.ac.uk/researchgp/radar/
Outline
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Graphical Causal Models
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Bayesian networks: prediction or diagnosis
Causal induction: learning causes from data
Causal effect estimation: strength of causal
relationships from data
DIADEM project
Bayesian Nets
Detecting Asthma Exacerbations
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Aim to assist early
detection of asthma
episodes in Paediatric
A&E
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Using only data
already available
electronically
Network created by
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Experts
Data
Bayes’ Theorem
P( A, B)  P( A | B).P( B)  P( B | A).P( A)
Joint probability
P( A | B)  P( B | A).P( A)
Revised belief
about A, given
evidence B
Prior probability of A
Factor to update belief
about A, given evidence B
Bayes’ Theorem (Made Easy)
yes, no
Infection rate: P(I) = 1%
Infection
False positive P(T=pos|I=no) = 5%
Negligible false negative
pos, neg
Test
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A person has a positive test result
How likely is it they are infected?
17%
Medical Uses of BNs
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Diagnosis
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Prediction
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Differential diagnosis from symptoms
Likely outcome
Building a BN
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From expert knowledge  expert system
From data  data mining
Beyond Bayesian Networks
Cause versus Association
Infection
Fever
?
or
Fever
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Joint probability same:
Infection
P( I , F )
 P ( F | I ).P( I )
 P ( I | F ).P( F )
Both represent fever  infection association
‘Causal model’ has arrow from cause to effect
Causal Induction
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Discover causal relationships from data
Sometimes distinguishable
A
B
C
A
B
C
… different conditional independence
Causal Induction – Application
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Discover causal relationships from data
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Need lots of data
Applied to gene regulatory networks
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Data from micro-array experiments
Recent explanation of limitations
Estimating Causal Effects
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Suppose A is a cause of B
A
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B
What is the causal effect?
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Is it p(B | A) ?
Benefits of Sports?
intelligence
sport
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Is there a relationship between sport and
exam success?
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exam result
Data available
‘Intelligence’ correlate
Is this the correct test?
P(exam=pass|sport) > P(exam=pass| no-sport)
Benefits of Sports?
intelligence
observe
sport
exam result
p(pass|sport) > p(pass| no-sport)
73%
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When we condition on ‘sport’
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67%
Probability for ‘exam result’
Probability for ‘intelligence’ changes
What if I decide to start sport?
Intervention v Observation
intelligence
change
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sport
exam result
Causal effect differs from conditional probability
P(pass|do(sport)) < P(pass| do(no sport))
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Mostly interested in consequence of change
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Causal effects can be measured by a Randomised
Control Trial
Causal effect of sport on exam results not identifiable
Benefit of Sport
intelligence
sport (S)
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attendance (A)
exam result (E)
New observable variable ‘attendance at
lectures’
Causal effect of sport on exam results now
identifiable
P( E | do( S ))   P( A | S ) P( E | S , A).P( S )
A
S
Estimating Causal Effects
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Rules to convert causal to statistical questions
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Causal model
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Generalises e.g. stratification, potential outcomes
Assumptions: a causal model
Some assumptions may be testable
Some variables observed, others not measured
Some causal effects identifiable
Challenges
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Causal models for complex applications
Statistical implications
Example Application
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Royal London trauma service
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Criteria for activation of the trauma team
Aim to prevent unnecessary trauma team calls
Extensive records of trauma patient outcomes
US study of 1495 admissions proposed new
‘triage’ criteria
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Significant decrease in overtriage 51%  29%
Insignificant increase in undertriage 1%  3%
None of the patients undertriaged by new criteria died
Does this show safety of new criteria?
DIADEM Project
Digital Economy in Healthcare
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Data Information and Analysis for clinical
DEcision Making
EPSRC Digital Economy
Cluster
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Partnership between solution providers and
clinical data analysis problem holders
Summarise unsolved data analysis needs, in
relation to the analysis techniques available
Join the DIADEM cluster
Cluster Activities and Outcomes
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Engage stakeholders and build a
community:
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A road map: data and information
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Creation of a community web-site and forum
Meetings with potential ‘problem holders’
Workshops
Follow-up proposal
A self-sustaining website – health data
analytics
Summary
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Bayesian networks
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Causal induction
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Prediction and diagnosis
Join the
DIADEM
cluster
Identify (some) causal relationships from (lots
of) data
Causal effects
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Experimental results from …
… non-experimental data
… assumptions (causal model)