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JOINT BALTIC SEA RESEARCH PROGRAMME Annual Conference 2010 Programme and Abstracts BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania CONTENTS Programme Participant List Presentation Abstracts Poster Abstracts Main Author Index 1 41 84 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania JOINT BALTIC SEA RESEARCH PROGRAMME Annual Conference 2010 19‐21 January 2010 Reval Hotel Lietuva, Vilnius, Lithuania Meeting room Alfa Programme Tuesday 19.01.2010 11:00 Registration Coffee with sandwiches 13:00 Opening BONUS EEIG Steering Committee Chair, Dr Jüri Elken Professor Eugenijus Butkus, Chairman, Research Council of Lithuania Session 1: Assessing future development of the Baltic Sea and uncertainties of projections Chair: Jüri Elken, Estonian Science Foundation 13:20 Key‐note lecture: Regional Climate Projections Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen 14:10 First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961‐2099 H.E. Markus Meier and ECOSUPPORT co‐workers 14:30 Uncertainty assessment of state‐of‐the‐art coupled physical‐biogeochemical models for the Baltic Sea Kari Eilola, E. Almroth, B.G. Gustafson et al. 14:50 Application of modelling techniques for mapping distribution of perennial red alga Furcellaria lumbricalis Martynas Bučas and D. Daunys 15:10 Bayesian models as a collective learning tool Sakari Kuikka, I. Helle, S. Mäntyniemi and L. Uusitalo 15:30 An empirical method to determine patterns of the risk of coastal pollution in the Gulf of Finland Bert Viikmäe, R. Isotamm and N. Delpeche 15:50 Coffee Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Chair: Dr. Janina Barsiene, Institute of Ecology of Vilnius University 16:20 Integrated fish monitoring Lars Förlin 16:40 Assessment of reproductive disorders of fish and invertebrates as part of monitoring biological effects of pollution Jens Gercken, L. Förlin, J. Strand and B. Sundelin 17:00 Integrated multidisciplinary assessment or the ecosystem health of the Gulf of Finland (BEAST project): Scheme of the 2009 twin expedition and the first results Kari Lehtonen, T. Lang, J. Baršiene et al. 17:20 Increase in parasite infestation by PFOS or TBT exposure in the Baltic amphipod Monoporeia affinis Therese Jacobson, K. Holmström and B. Sundelin 19:00 ‐ BONUS Young Scientist Club Meeting room Beta BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Wednesday 20.01.2010 Session 2 continues Chair: Prof. Sergey Golubkov, Zoological Institute Russian Academy of Sciences 09:00 Key‐note lecture: Hypoxia in Shelf Seas: Global Perspective Nancy Rabalais 9:50 INFLOW: State of the art ‐ high‐resolution sediment cores covering the past 6000 years Aarno Kotilainen, L. Arppe, S. Dobosz et al. 10:10 Long‐term changes in hypoxia in the Baltic Sea Daniel Conley, L. Zillén, C. Lenz et al. 10:30 Baltic Sea macrofauna, hypoxia and implications for ecosystem functioning ‐ emerging results from HYPER Alf Norkko, E. Bonsdorff, A. Villnäs et al. 10:50 Phosphorus recycling and burial in Baltic Sea sediments with contrasting redox conditions Caroline P. Slomp, B.G. Gustafsson, H.P. Mort et al. 11:10 Coffee Session 2 continues Chair: Dr. Johanna Mattila, Åbo Akademi University, tbc 11:40 Resuspension effects in the shallow freshwater eutrophic lagoon: experimental & modelling study Arturas Razinkovas, Ch. Ferrarin, D. Daunys et al. 12:00 Measuring nitrification in sediments: comparison of two 15N stable isotope techniques Helena Jäntti and S. Hietanen 12:20 BALTIC GAS: The dynamic methane fluxes in the seabed Bo Barker Joergensen, H. Fossing and the BALTIC GAS team 12:40 Nitrogen removal processes in the water column of the Baltic Sea Susanna Hietanen and J. Kuparinen 13:00 Lunch break Session 2 continues Chair: Prof. Daniel Conley, Lund University, GeoBiosphere Science Centre 14:00 Factors influencing the acid‐base (pH) balance in the Baltic Sea: A sensitivity analysis Moa Edman, A. Omstedt, L. Anderson and H. Laudon 14:20 Continuous surface water CO2 measurements on a cargo ship: What can we learn about the biogeochemistry in the Baltic Sea? Bernd Schneider 14:40 Marine genetic biodiversity and ecosystem functioning ‐ is this an issue? Ricardo Pereyra, K. Johannesson, L. Kautsky et al. 15:00 Relationship between environmental factors and biological features of benthic habitats in the Baltic Sea ‐ a review Martin Snickars, J. Mattila, M. Lindegarth and M. von Numers 15:20 Coffee Session 3: A system of catchment – coast – sea continuum Chair: Dr. Hans‐Jörg Isemer, GKSS Research Centre, BALTEX Secretariat 15:50 Holocene and modern climate changes in the coastal zone of the Eastern Gulf of Finland ‐ problems and first results of the INFLOW project Daria Ryabchyk, V. Zhmoida, M. Spiridonov et al. 16:10 Nutrient load reduction measures in a river basin and efficiency for coastal lagoon management Inga Krämer, G. Schernewski, H. Behrendt et al. 16:30 Nitrogen balance in the Curonian Lagoon of the Baltic Sea revisited Arturas Razinkovas, M. Žilius, R. Paškauskas and R. Pilkaityté BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania 16:50 Updating the 3D Baltic Sea biogeochemical model for better estimates of future management actions Heikki Pitkänen and P. Korpinen 17:10 Evaluating the combined effects of nutrient load reduction and climate scenarios for the Baltic Sea catchment Joel Dahné, C. Donnelly, J. Strömqvist et al. 17:30 Models and budgets addressing nutrient fluxes from the Baltic Sea catchment Christoph Humborg, C.‐M. Mörth, D.P. Swaney et al. 18:00 Poster session 19:30‐ Conference Dinner at meeting room Beta Thursday 21.01.2010 Session 4: Building the knowledge‐based governance and management of the Baltic Chair: Dr. Berit Hasler, NERI, Aarhus University 09:00 Progress of BAZOOCA Peter Tiselius and K. Tönnesson 9:20 Identifying high risk areas of pollution in the western Baltic Sea Andreas Lehmann, H.‐H. Hindrichsen and K. Getzlaff 9:40 Semi‐persistent patterns of transport in surface layers of the Gulf of Finland Tarmo Soomere, N.Delpeche and B. Viikmäe 10:00 Managing systems of uncertain states ‐ the case of fisheries Noél Holmgren, N. Norrström, R. Aps and S. Kuikka 10:20 Regional cost‐effective nutrient abatement ‐ integrated modelling results supporting management in the Baltic Sea region Berit Hasler, S.L. Brodersten, M. Czajkowski et al. 10:40 The implications of the nature of scientific knowledge to linking science and policy in the case of the Baltic Sea eutrophication Mia Pihlajamäki and N. Tynkkynen 11:00 Coffee Session 4 continues Chair: Dr. Wojciech Wawrzynski, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea 11:30 Comparing the governance of environmental risks in the Baltic Sea Michael Gilek and the RISKGOV consortium 11:50 Media framing of environmental risks in the Baltic Sea Anna Maria Jönsson 12:10 Societal conditions for the Baltic Sea protection: Russian case Dmitry Nechiporuk 12:30 The capacity of the European Union to solve the problem of Baltic Sea eutrophication Tom Schumacher 12:50 Conference closing Andris Andrusaitis Forum of Project Coordinators Thursday 21.01.2010 at 14:00‐18:00 Meeting room Tau 14:00 FPC 15:30 Coffee 16:00 FPC continues BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania POSTER SESSION 20.01.2009 at 18:00‐19:30 Meeting room Alfa Posters may be put up from 19.01.2009 11:00 and must be removed before 21.01.2009 13:00 1. Selected highlights from the ECOSUPPORT project The ECOSUPPORT consortium 2. Filling gaps in environmental time series ‐ a model inter‐comparison Joachim W. Dippner, J. Hänninen, K. Junker et al. 3. New data on development of the Gdansk Basin in the Late Pleistocene ‐ Holocene according the result of investigations of the core‐section #303700‐7 (r/v Poseidon cruise) Andrey Grigoriev, V. Zhamoida, M. Spiridonov et al. 4. Identification of the regional distribution of gassy sediments in the Baltic Sea by application of Geo‐Information‐ Systems (BalticGas) Torben Gentz, R. Martinez and M. Schlüter 5. Biogeochemistry of methane and its potential oxidants in Himmerfjärden estuary sediment, Sweden Nguyen M. Thang, T.G. Ferdelman, V. Brüchert et al. 6. Hypoxia events in the Gulf of Gdańsk and chemical and biological responses – historical data from 1989 to 2008 Katarzyna Łukawska‐Matuszewska, U. Janas and D. Burska 7. Dead or only almost dead: the importance of increasing stress for benthic ecosystem functioning Anna Villnäs, A. Norkko, J. Norkko 8. Formation of sediment fine structure in the Baltic Sea deep areas Joonas J. Virtasalo, T. Leipe, M. Moros and A. Kotilainen 9. Dynamics of oxygen deficiency conditions in the Eastern Gulf of Finland in the last decade Tatjana Eremina 10. Processes of the Nitrogen Cycle in the Redoxcline of the Baltic Sea from an isotopic perspective Sven Meyer and M. Voß 11. Adaptation and application of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem Model to a coastal ecosystem Frank Schäffer, T. Neumann and G. Schernewski 12. Nitrate uptake during spring outflow in the nitrate‐rich Curonian and Oder lagoon Frederike Korth, I. Liskow and Maren Voß 13. Benthic oxygen uptake in the eutrophicated boreal lagoon (SE Baltic Sea) Mindaugas Zilius, M. Bartoli and A. Razinkovas 14. Transfer‐function modelling from climate and runoff to nutrient loading and concentrations in the Baltic Sea Jari Hänninen and I. Vuorinen 15. Monthly nutrient emissions and loads to the Odra River Basin Jens Hürdler and M. Venohr 16. The impact of submarine ground water discharge (SGD) on a coastal ecosystem of the southern Baltic Sea: Results from the AMBER project Susann Vogler, B. Szymczycha, T. Gentz et al. 17. Impact of groundwater discharge on fauna Lech Kotwicki, O. Dellwig, K. Grzelak et al. 18. BAZOOCA ‐ Baltic Zooplankton Cascades Kajsa Tönnesson and P. Tiselius 19. Climate‐related long‐term trends and spatial variability in the zooplankton community of the Central Baltic Sea Rabea Diekmann, S. Otto, G. Kornilovs et al. 20. The large scale spatial distribution of plankton communities in a transitional coastal lagoon Evelina Grinienė, Z. Gasiunaitė, R. Pilkaitytė and S. Šulčius BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania 21. The role of abiotic factors in the distribution of macrophytes in the shallow eutrophic SE Baltic Sea lagoon Renata Pilkaitytė, A. Razinkovas, R. Kybranciene and A. Zonyte 22. Spatiotemporal modeling of the common reed on the Finnish coast Ari Jolma, A. Altartouri, X. Chen and P. Korpinen 23. Recovery of bottom communities after recent hypoxic events in the eastern Gulf of Finland Alexey A. Maximov, S.M. Golubkov and V. Petukhov 24. Towards a diatom‐based transfer function for the Baltic Sea: I. Analysis of sediment‐surface diatom assemblages Andrzej Witkowski and S. Dobasz 25. Preliminary note on dinoflagellate cysts from the Bornholm Basin in the Baltic Sea Niels E. Poulsen 26. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in Baltic populations of mussels Mytilus Małgorzata Zbawicka, T. Sańko, R. Wenne 27. Multi‐endpoint studies on Zoarces viviparus, using gene expression oligonucleotide microarray Noomi Asker, E. Kristiansson, D.G.J. Larsson and L. Förlin 28. Eelpout – a fish indicator of biological effects in Danish coastal waters Jakob Strand, I. Dahllöf and Z. Tairova 29. Integrated assessment of TBT pollution in the Baltic Sea – integrating environmental quality criteria for chemical and biological effects measurements Jakob Strand, M. Bassompierre, D. Schedek et al. 30. Effects of environmental contamination on immune functions of the blue mussel Mytilus spp. considering abiotic variations in brackish water systems of the Baltic Sea Nicole Höher, K. Broeg and A. Köhler 31. Laboratory exposure experiment with Mytilus edulis from the western Gulf of Finland ‐ effects of varied salinity on biomarkers with added PAH exposure Anna Weckman and K. Lehtonen 32. Ecosystem state assessment of different sub‐regions of the Baltic Sea based on cardiac activity biomarkers of bivalves Sergey Kholodkevich, T. Kuznetsova, A. Kurakin et al. 33. Experience of bioassay with the amphipod Gmelinoides fasciatus to assess sediment quality in the Gulf of Finland: the approach and first results Nadezda Berezina, S. Golubkov 34. A brown algae Fucus vesiculosus as potential biomarker of the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea (BEAST project) Elmira Boikova, Z. Deķere, I. Kuļikova et al. 35. Phytoplankton biomass versus chlorophyll a: do they show the same water quality? Diana Vaičiūtė, I. Olenina, R. Kovolytė and R. Pilkaitytė 36. Assessment of the ecosystem health of the Eastern Gulf of Finland by means of histopathology of zooplankton species Sergey Golubkov and A. Makrushin 37. Interactions between ecosystem and human environment in Baltic coastal waters under Climate Change and the need for adaptation measures Oda Störmer, M. Mossbauer, G. Schernewski and T. Neumann 38. Consensus building as an element of science‐policy co‐production Robert Aps, S. Kuikka, I. Liiv and M. Fetissov 39. Policy‐Making and Implementation in the Baltic Sea Protection in Russia Elena Belokurova, M. Nozhenko and PROBALT project 40. Accidental versus operational oil spills from shipping in the Baltic Sea – institutional responses and risk governance Björn Hassler 41. Environmental sensitivity mapping in Lithuanian marine areas Nerijus Blažauskas and D. Depellegrin BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania PARTICIPANT LIST Name Organisation E‐mail Almesjö, Lisa Swedish Research Council FORMAS [email protected] Altartouri, Anas Helsinki University of Technology, TKK ‐ Lahti Center [email protected] Andersson, Helen Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute [email protected] Andreikenaite, Laura Institute of Ecology of Vilnius University [email protected] Andrejev, Oleg Finnish Environment Institute, SYKE [email protected] Andrusaitis, Andris BONUS EEIG Secretariat [email protected] Appelberg, Magnus Swedish Board of Fisheries [email protected] Aps, Robert University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute [email protected] Barsiene, Janina Institute of Ecology of Vilnius University [email protected] Bassompierre, Marc National Environmental Research Institute, NERI, Aarhus University [email protected] Belokurova, Elena European University at St. Petersburg [email protected] Berezina, Nadezhda Zoological Institute RAS [email protected] Bergek, Sara Institute of Coastal Research, Swedish Board of Fisheries [email protected] Bignert, Anders Dept. Contaminant Research, Swedish Museum of Natural History [email protected] Boikova, Elmira Institute of Biology, University of Latvia [email protected] Bonsdorff, Erik Åbo Akademi University, Dept. of Biosciences, Environmental and Marine Biology [email protected] Bucas, Martynas Coastal Research and Planning Institute, Klaipeda University [email protected] Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg Danish Meteorological Institute [email protected] Conley, Daniel Dept. Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Lund University [email protected] Dabrowska, Henryka Sea Fisheries Institute in Gdynia [email protected] Dahné, Joel Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute [email protected] Dailidiene, Inga Klaipeda University [email protected] Dale, Andy Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, IFM‐GEOMAR adale@ifm‐geomar.de Dippner, Joachim W Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde dippner@io‐warnemuende.de Dobosz, Slawomir University of Szczecin [email protected] Döös, Kristofer Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University [email protected] Edman, Moa University of Gothenburg [email protected] Eilola, Kari Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute [email protected] Elken, Jüri Marine Systems Institute at TUT [email protected] Eremina, Tatjana Russian State Hydrometeorological University [email protected] Ericsdotter, Siv Stockholm Resilience Centre siv.ericsdotter@ stockholmresilience.su.se Fetissov, Mihhail University of Tartu [email protected] Forlin, Lars Department of Zoology, University of Gothenburg [email protected] Gasiūnaitė, Zita Coastal Research and Planning Institute, Klaipeda University [email protected] Gentz, Torben Alfred‐Wegener‐Institut [email protected] Gercken, Jens Institute for Applied Ecology Ltd. [email protected] Gilek, Michael Södertörn University [email protected] Golubkov, Sergey Zoological Institute RAS [email protected] Grönholm, Sam Åbo Akademi University [email protected] BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Gurova, Evgenia Institute of Aerial geodesy, Applied Research Center [email protected] Hammerschmidt, Ulf Physikalisch‐Technische Bundesanstalt, PTB [email protected] Hasler, Berit National Environmental Research Institute, NERI, Aarhus University [email protected] Hassler, Björn Södertörn University [email protected] Hautakangas, Sami University of Helsinki [email protected] Hedman, Jenny Swedish Museum of Natural History [email protected] Helle, Inari University of Helsinki [email protected] Hietanen, Susanna University of Helsinki [email protected] Hirvonen, Anu Finnish Environment Institute, Marine Research Centre [email protected] Holmgren, Noel University of Skövde [email protected] Humborg, Christoph Baltic Nest Insitute [email protected] Hürdler, Jens Leibniz‐Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries huerdler@igb‐berlin.de Hänninen, Jari Archipelago Research Institute [email protected] Höher, Nicole Alfred‐Wegener‐Institute for Polar and Marine Research [email protected] Ikauniece, Anda Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology [email protected] Isemer, Hans‐Jörg GKSS Research Centre, BALTEX Secretariat [email protected] Jacobson, Therese Stockholm University [email protected] Jentzen, Anna Institute for Baltic Sea Research anna.jentzen@io‐warnemuende.de Joergensen, Bo Barker Center for Geomicrobiology, Dept. of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University [email protected] Jokela, Maria Finnish Institute of International Affairs maria.jokela@upi‐fiia.fi Jolma, Ari Helsinki University of Technology [email protected] Junker, Karin Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde karin.junker@io‐warnemuende.de Jäntti, Helena University of Helsinki [email protected] Jönsson, Anna Maria Södertörn University anna‐[email protected] Kabel, Karoline Institute for Baltic Sea Research karoline.kabel@io‐warnemuende.de Kataržytė, Marija Coastal Research and Planning Institute [email protected] Kautsky, Lena Department of Botany, Stockholm University [email protected] Kelpšaitė, Loreta Klaipeda University [email protected] Kononen, Kaisa BONUS EEIG Secretariat [email protected] Korth, Frederike Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde frederike.korth@io‐warnemuende.de Kotilainen, Aarno Geological Survey of Finland [email protected] Kotwicki, Lech Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences [email protected] Krämer, Inga Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Warnemünde inga.kraemer@io‐warnemuende.de Kuijpers, Antoon Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland [email protected] Kuikka, Sakari University of Helsinki, FEM group [email protected] Kuznetsov, Ivan Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde ivan.kuznetsov@io‐warnemuende.de Kuznetsova, Tatiana V. Scientific Research Center for Ecological Safety RAS [email protected] Lang, Thomas vTI Institute of Fishery Ecology [email protected] Lehmann, Andreas Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, IFM‐GEOMAR alehmann@ifm‐geomar.de Lehmuskallio, Eija NatureGate Ltd [email protected] Lehmuskallio, Jouko NatureGate Ltd [email protected] Lehtonen, Kari K. Finnish Environment Institute [email protected] Liiv, Innar University of Tartu [email protected] Lindegarth, Mats University of Gothenburg [email protected] Lu, Xi Department Model and Data Assessment, GKSS [email protected] BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Lukawska‐Matuszewska, Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdansk Katarzyna [email protected] Mar, Roi Alfred Wegener Institut (AWI) [email protected] Maślak, Maria The Foundation for the Development of Gdansk University [email protected] Mattila, Johanna Åbo Akademi University [email protected] Mattsdotter, My Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, IFM‐GEOMAR mmattsdotter@ifm‐geomar.de Maximov, Alexey Zoological Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences [email protected] Meier, Markus Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute [email protected] Melzner, Frank Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, IFM‐GEOMAR fmelzner@ifm‐geomar.de Meyer, Sven Leibniz‐Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemuende sven.meyer@io‐warnemuende.de Moros, Matthias Institute for Baltic Sea Research matthias.moros@io‐warnemuende.de Myrberg, Kai Finnish Environment Institute/Marine Research Centre [email protected] Nechiporuk, Dmitry European University at St. Petersburg [email protected] Nekoro, Marmar Stockholm Resilience Centre/Baltic Nest Institute marmar.nekoro@ stockholmresilience.su.se Neumann, Thomas Institute for Baltic Sea Research thomas.neumann@io‐warnemuende.de Nohrstedt, Hans‐Örjan Swedish Research Council FORMAS hans‐[email protected] Norkko, Alf Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute [email protected] Norkko, Joanna Åbo Akademi University [email protected] Norrgren, Leif Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences [email protected] Norrström, Niclas University of Skövde [email protected] Nozehnko, Maria European University at St. Petersburg [email protected] Omstedt, Anders University of Gothenburg, Department of Earth Sciences [email protected] Otto, Saskia Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of saskia.otto@uni‐hamburg.de Hamburg Oukka, Elise BONUS EEIG Secretariat [email protected] Pereyra, Ricardo University of Gothenburg [email protected] Pihlajamäki, Mia The Finnish Institute of International Affairs mia.pihlajamaki@upi‐fiia.fi Pilkaityte, Renata Coastal Research and Planning Institute, Klaipeda University [email protected] Pitkänen, Heikki Finnish Environment Institute [email protected] Porsche, Christian Institute for Baltic Sea Research christian.porsche@io‐warnemuende.de Poulsen, Niels E. Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, GEUS [email protected] Rabalais, Nancy Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium [email protected] Rahman, Mofizur Coastal Research & Planning Institute, Klaipeda University [email protected] Raudsepp, Urmas Marine Systems Institute [email protected] Razinkovas, Arturas Coastal Research & Planning Institute, Klaipeda University [email protected] Ruoho‐Airola, Tuija Finnish Meteorological Institute tuija.ruoho‐[email protected] Ryabchuk, Daria A.P. Karpinsky Russian Geological Research Institute, VSEGEI [email protected] Rybakovas, Aleksandras Institute of Ecology of Vilnius University [email protected] Scharin, Henrik Stockholm Resilience Centre henrik.scharin@ stockholmresilience.su.se Schiedek, Doris National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University [email protected] Schneider, Bernd Baltic Sea Research Institute bernd.schneider@io‐warnemuende.de Schumacher, Tom University of Kiel [email protected]‐kiel.de Schäffer, Frank Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde frank.schaeffer@io‐warnemuende.de Šiaulys, Andrius Klaipeda University, Coastal research and planning institute [email protected] Slomp, Caroline P. Utrecht University [email protected] BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Snickars, Martin Åbo Akademi University [email protected] Snoeijs, Pauline Stockholm University [email protected] Soomere, Tarmo Institute of Cybernetics [email protected] Spinaci, Gianluca Committee of the Regions EU ‐ Forward Studies Unit [email protected] Störmer, Oda Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde oda.stoermer@io‐warnemuende.de Sundelin, Brita Stockholm University, ITM [email protected] Syvokiene, Janina Institute of Ecology of Vilnius University [email protected] Tairova, Zhanna National Environmental Research Institute [email protected] Tamminen, Manu University of Helsinki [email protected] Tembe, Tiina BONUS EEIG Secretariat [email protected] Thang, Nguyen Manh Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology tmnguyen@mpi‐bremen.de Tiselius, Peter University of Gothenburg [email protected] Tjarvar, Anna SIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency [email protected] Tuvikene, Arvo Estonian University of Life Sciences [email protected] Tönnesson, Kajsa Dept. of Marine Ecology ‐ Göteborg, University of Gothenburg [email protected] Udovyk, Oksana Södertörn University [email protected] Urszula, Janas Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdansk [email protected] Uznyte, Rasa Coastal Research and Planning Institute [email protected] Vaičiūtė, Diana Coastal Research and Planning Institute, Klaipeda University [email protected] Vaitkus, Rimantas Vilnius University [email protected] Wawrzynski, Wojciech International Council for the Exploration of the Sea [email protected] Weckman, Anna Finnish Environment Institute [email protected] Wellmann, Christian Peace Research Division, Kiel University [email protected]‐kiel.de Wenne, Roman Institute of Oceanology PAS [email protected] Venohr, Markus Leibniz‐Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries m.venohr@igb‐berlin.de Viikmäe, Bert Institute of Cybernetics at Tallinn University of Technology [email protected] Villnäs, Anna Finnish Environment Center / Marine Research Institute [email protected] Virtasalo, Joonas Geological Survey of Finland [email protected] Witkowski, Andrzej University of Szczecin [email protected] Vogler, Susann Leibniz Institute of Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde susann.vogler@io‐warnemuende.de Voß, Maren Leibniz Institute Baltic Sea Research maren.voss@io‐warnemuende.de Vuorinen, Ilppo Archipelago Research Institute, University of Turku [email protected] Vuorinen, Pekka Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute [email protected] Żelazny, Tomasz The Foundation for the Development of Gdańsk University [email protected] Zhamoida, Vladimir Russian Research Geological Institute (VSEGEI) [email protected] Žilius, Mindaugas Coastal Research and Planning Institute (CORPI) [email protected] BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania PRESENTATIONS Key‐note lecture: Regional climate projections ................................................................................................. 1 First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961‐2099 .............................. 2 Uncertainty assessment of state‐of‐the‐art coupled physical‐biogeochemical models for the Baltic Sea ....... 3 Application of modelling techniques for mapping distribution of perennial red alga Furcellaria lumbricalis ... 4 Bayesian models as a collective learning tool .................................................................................................... 5 An empirical method to determine a patterns of the risk of coastal pollution in the Gulf of Finland .............. 6 Integrated fish monitoring ................................................................................................................................. 7 Assessment of reproductive disorders of fish and invertebrates as part of monitoring biological effects of pollution (BALCOFISH & BEAST projects) ........................................................................................................... 8 Integrated multidisciplinary assessment of the ecosystem health of the Gulf of Finland (BEAST project): Scheme of the 2009 twin expedition and first results ....................................................................................... 9 Increase in parasite infestation by PFOS or TBT exposure in the Baltic amphipod Monoporeia affinis .......... 10 Key‐note lecture: Hypoxia in shelf seas: global perspective ............................................................................ 11 INFLOW: State of the art ‐ high‐resolution sediment cores covering the past 6000 years ............................. 12 Long‐term changes in hypoxia in the Baltic Sea ............................................................................................... 13 Baltic Sea macrofauna, hypoxia and implications for ecosystem functioning – emerging results from HYPER (WP4) .................................................................................................................................................... 14 Phosphorus recycling and burial in Baltic Sea sediments with contrasting redox conditions ......................... 15 Resuspension effects in the shallow freshwater eutrophic lagoon: experimental & modeling study ............ 16 Measuring nitrification in sediments: comparison of two 15N stable isotope techniques ............................... 17 BALTIC GAS: The dynamic methane fluxes in the seabed ................................................................................ 18 Nitrogen removal processes in the water column of the Baltic Sea ................................................................ 19 Factors influencing the acid‐base (pH) balance in the Baltic Sea: A sensitivity analysis .................................. 20 Continuous surface water CO2 measurements on a cargo ship: What can we learn about the biogeochemistry in the Baltic Sea? .................................................................................................................. 21 Marine genetic biodiversity and ecosystem function – is this an issue? ......................................................... 22 Relationship between environmental factors and biological features of benthic habitats in the Baltic Sea – a review ......................................................................................................................................................... 23 Holocene and modern climate changes in the coastal zone of the Eastern Gulf of Finland – problems and first results of the INFLOW project ................................................................................................................... 24 Nutrient load reduction measures in a river basin and efficiency for coastal lagoon management ............... 25 Nitrogen balance in the Curonian Lagoon of the Baltic Sea revisited .............................................................. 26 Updating the 3D Baltic Sea biogeochemical model for better estimates of future management actions ...... 27 Evaluating the combined effects of nutrient load reduction and climate scenarios for the Baltic Sea catchment ......................................................................................................................................................... 28 Models and budgets addressing nutrient fluxes from the Baltic Sea catchment ............................................ 29 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Progress of BAZOOCA ....................................................................................................................................... 30 Identifying high risk areas of pollution in the western Baltic Sea .................................................................... 31 Semi‐persistent patterns of transport in surface layers of the Gulf of Finland ............................................... 32 Managing systems of uncertain states – the case of fisheries ......................................................................... 33 Regional cost‐effective nutrient abatement – integrated modelling results supporting management in the Baltic Sea region ......................................................................................................................................... 34 The implications of the nature of scientific knowledge to linking science and policy in the case of the Baltic Sea eutrophication ................................................................................................................................. 35 Comparing the governance of environmental risks in the Baltic Sea .............................................................. 36 Media Framing of Environmental Risks in the Baltic Sea ................................................................................. 37 Societal Conditions for the Baltic Sea Protection: Russian Case ...................................................................... 38 The capacity of the European Union to solve the problem of Baltic Sea eutrophication ................................ 39 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 1: Assessing future development of the Baltic Sea and uncertainties of projections Key‐note lecture: Regional climate projections Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen Danish Meteorological Institute, [email protected] At the root of responding to climate change is the fact that impacts occur on regional and local scales, requiring robust messages of regional climate change. It is well recognized that the resolution of global climate models (GCMs) has not been adequate to meet the regional scale information needs. Consequently both the IPCC TAR and AR4 included chapters on developing regional messages of change, but with only partial success, and which still drew heavily on GCM results augmented by limited regional downscaling results. An important element for this was the need for a homogenised assessment procedure across WG‐I, thus the relatively late availability of the WCRP CMIP3 multi‐model database prevented updated large scale downscaling efforts to be ready in time for the inclusion in AR4. For the same reason, results such as recently achieved within the ENSEMBLES project focusing on SRES scenario A1B will appear out of date by the time AR5 is completed. Four information sources were identified in the AR4 Ch11 for deriving regional messages of change; "AOGCM simulations; downscaling of AOGCM‐simulated data using techniques to enhance regional detail; physical understanding of the processes governing regional responses; and recent historical climate change." Of these, the use of downscaling techniques has recently made notable advances (although all four information sources remain poorly integrated). The developments of multi‐model regional experiments such as initiated within ENSEMBLES, and in particular expanded by planned activities that broadly fall within the WCRP CORDEX (see http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/RCD_Projects/CORDEX/CORDEX.html) initiative, offer a valuable new opportunity to draw on regional resolution data for all terrestrial regions in a way that was not broadly possible at the time of previous IPCC assessment reports. Deriving information from such multi‐method regional downscaling experiments in part mimics the challenges of assessing the data from GCMs, such as is found in the WCRP CMIP3 multi‐model database, but in part has its own unique challenges. Recognizing that data is not information, three primary issues need to be addressed in relation to translating output data from a given model: what is the relative regional skill of each contributing model, what are the relative signals of natural and forced variability represented in the models, and understanding the limits of spatial detail that can possibly be represented. Current approaches are partially successful in addressing these, albeit more strongly focused on specific grid‐cell biases. Note that the definition of skill is not always well defined at the regional to local level. Following this are the methodological challenges to reaching a first order message of regional change, and of representing the envelope of possible climate response. Approaches range from simple averages and ranges, through to more sophisticated methods to assess probability envelopes (for example, Bayesian techniques). Still poorly resolved is the question of how well the models span the true probability space. More unique to the regional downscaling methods are questions of assessing the real‐world local scale variance from the grid cell average information of models in order to support the climate Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation (VIA) communities which typically are used to point‐wise station observation information. As one increases in spatial resolution, the nuances and subtleties of the task increase, especially when taken with a view to informing the activities of the VIA communities. While progress is being made on the above issues, perhaps the biggest potential for enhancing information from the multi‐ model output is through new approaches to identify signal versus noise (natural variability), and integrating this with an understanding of the changes in the large scale and regional‐scale processes that drive the local climate. This talk uses examples from past and current work to illustrate the complexity of the challenge, as well as the potential for developing stronger regional‐scale messages of climate change relevant to end‐users. 1 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 1: Assessing future development of the Baltic Sea and uncertainties of projections First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961‐2099 H.E. Markus Meier1 and ECOSUPPORT co‐workers 1 Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden Within the project ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modelling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making) a dynamical downscaling approach is applied to calculate future climate of the Baltic Sea using a high‐resolution coupled atmosphere‐ice‐ocean‐land surface regional climate model (RCM) with lateral boundary data from global climate models (GCMs). An ensemble of regional scenario simulations is performed to assess the uncertainty related to the natural variability, unknown future greenhouse gas emissions, unknown future nutrient loads to the sea, and biases of the RCM and GCMs. Compared to earlier studies addressing selected time slices (see BALTEX Assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea basin), the new scenario simulations are transient simulations covering the whole period 1960‐2099. In addition, improved versions of the GCMs used for the latest IPCC assessment are utilized. We will show results from the first available scenario simulations. These future projections of the coupled atmosphere‐ice‐ocean system including biogeochemical cycles in the marine environment are of relevance for several BONUS projects, like ECOSUPPORT, AMBER and INFLOW. For the control period 1961‐2008 the model results are validated with available observations and compared with hindcast simulations that are able to reproduce the history of climate variability by applying data from the global re‐analysis ERA‐40 at the lateral boundaries of the RCM. We found that both hindcast and control simulations are of high quality. However, the projections of future climate at the end of the 21st century differ considerably depending on the driving GCM used. For the near future the uncertainties of the projected ocean physics related to the natural variability are largest whereas at the end of the century the uncertainties due to unknown greenhouse gas emissions are getting more important. 2 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 1: Assessing future development of the Baltic Sea and uncertainties of projections Uncertainty assessment of state‐of‐the‐art coupled physical‐biogeochemical models for the Baltic Sea Kari Eilola1, E. Almroth1, B. G. Gustafson2, R. Hordoir1, A. Höglund1, I. Kuznetsov3, H. E. M. Meier1, T. Neumann3, O. P. Savchuk2 1 Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden 2 Baltic Nest Institute, Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden 3 Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde, Germany Within the project ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making) three state‐of‐the‐art coupled physical‐biogeochemical models (BALTSEM, ERGOM, and RCO‐SCOBI) are used to calculate changing concentrations of nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, diatoms, flagellates, cyanobacteria, zooplankton, detritus, and oxygen in the Baltic Sea. The objectives are to calculate the combined effects of changing climate and changing human activity (nutrient load reductions [runoff and airborne], coastal management, fisheries) on the BS ecosystem The models are structurally different in that ERGOM and RCO‐SCOBI are 3D circulation models comprising sub‐basin scale processes while BALTSEM resolves the Baltic Sea spatially in 13 sub‐basins. This presentation will summarise results from the ECOSUPPORT model inter comparison and the model results from hind casts are discussed in comparison with observations data for the period 1970‐2005. All three investigated models are able to reproduce the observed variability of biogeochemical cycles during 1970‐2005 well. Uncertainties are related to differences in the bioavailable fractions of nutrient loadings from land and parameterizations of key processes like sediment fluxes that are not completely known and well understood today. 3 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 1: Assessing future development of the Baltic Sea and uncertainties of projections Application of modelling techniques for mapping distribution of perennial red alga Furcellaria lumbricalis Martynas Bučas, Darius Daunys Coastal Research and Planning Institute, Klaipeda University, Lithuania, E‐mail: [email protected] The exposed coast on the tide‐less south‐eastern Baltic Sea is generally unsuitable for large perennial, habitat forming macrophytes, such as eelgrass and bladder wrack. In this area the dominant perennial Furcellaria lumbricalis, serves as natural spawning ground for herrings. This alga is limited to the hard substrates and occurs between 1 to 16 m depths. However the distribution of F. lumbricalis is very patchy due to the effects of exposure linked to inclination of underwater bottom slope, abrasion and/or burring by mobile sediments. Underwater surveys have been performed in the coastal waters along the mainland coast of Lithuania between 2003 and 2008. In total, database consisted of 833 diving and video transects, where the cover of F. lumbricalis and bottom sediment composition was estimated. Two modeling methods were applied for distribution of the red alga: Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions (GRASP) and Natural Neighbor interpolation (NNI). Cover and occurrence of F. lumbricalis were used as response variables, where 5 raster layers were used as input for prediction in GRASP model: bathymetry, occurrence of substrate, distance to the Curonian lagoon mouth, and exposure measure based on distance to the depths 20 and 30 m. Interpolated species cover by NNI method was set to zero in areas covered by unsuitable substrates (sand and gravel) or below euphotic zone (< 15 m). In the results we found that GRASP model could give reliable prediction of F. lumbricalis occurrence (r= 0.7, ROC= 0.9). The occurrence of substrate was one of the main explanatory variables in this model, followed by exposure and bathymetry. However, these factors could not explain the dispersion of species cover above 50%, most likely, due to sampling resolution of predictive factors. On the other hand predicted F. lumbricalis cover by NNI model was consistent to observed values (r= 0.9), although without evident scientific justification. Nevertheless, combination of both models may serve as reliable the species modeling tool and applied for different coastal management and conservation issues, especially, where low information on environmental data exist. 4 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 1: Assessing future development of the Baltic Sea and uncertainties of projections Bayesian models as a collective learning tool Sakari Kuikka1, Inari Helle, Samu Mäntyniemi and Laura Uusitalo 1 Fisheries and Environmental Management Group (FEM), University of Helsinki, Finland, E‐mail: [email protected] In this paper, we discuss the methodological and ideological issues related to Bayesian modelling techniques. The most important feature of Bayesian inference is the possibility to use prior information, i.e. information that exists in addition to the interpretation of case specific data. In poorly studied issues, the only source of the prior information may be the knowledge of experts. In well studied issues the expert knowledge can be appended with the information contained in published papers. In both cases the posterior probability of the analysis includes best available knowledge, and it can be used in future studies as prior information. This enables an effective, transparent and sound learning process in science. The current dominating practice of scientific journals, i.e. to favour papers where the null hypothesis has been rejected by observing data that seems unlikely under the null, gives a biased view on the processes studied by scientific tools. Rejection of manuscripts that do not show statistical significance renders the use of published results in scientific learning problematic. In such a case also a meta‐analysis based on published papers gives biased results because evidence in favour of the null hypothesis has not been even‐ handedly presented. This problem could be avoided if scientific journals concentrated accepting the manuscripts based on the quality of the science and the presentation of the results rather than insisting statistical significance Keywords: Bayesian inference, learning in science, prior information 5 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 1: Assessing future development of the Baltic Sea and uncertainties of projections An empirical method to determine a patterns of the risk of coastal pollution in the Gulf of Finland Bert Viikmäe, Raul Isotamm, Nicole Delpeche Institute of Cybernetics at Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 21, 12618 Tallinn, E‐mail: [email protected] One of the aims of the BONUS+ BalticWay project is to identify areas that are at high and low risk of current‐transported coastal pollution in the Baltic Sea (Soomere and Quak, 2007). We describe first steps made towards creating a technology for identifying such areas for fairway designs. The basic tool for the analysis of current‐driven pollution is a Lagrangian trajectory model, TRACMASS (Döös, 1995, de Vries and Döös, 2001) with the use of three‐dimensional current velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre global circulation model (Regional Ocean model, RCO) with a resolution of 2×2 nautical miles. Trajectories of current‐driven pollution are simulated for a few weeks and the simulations for each sea point are repeated over several years. A high risk to a coastal section is assumed when pollution reaches a sea point located at a distance of two or three grid points from the coast. The average time it takes for the pollutants to reach such points is a measure of risk associated with the starting point. While the probability of coastal pollution for open ocean coasts can be reduced by shifting the fairway offshore, a central question for narrow bays is how to minimize the joint probability of hitting of either of the coasts. The first order solution is the equiprobability line, the probability of propagation of pollution from which to either of the coasts is equal. This line/area serves as an area of low environmental risk and indicates a safe fairway. We propose two methods for numerical estimation of the location of the equiprobability line. The first method is referred to as the linear method whilst the second method is referred to as the smooth method. The first method consists in the analysis of trajectories starting from each single cell. For each grid cell, 4 starting positions of trajectory are defined. The coastal zone is divided into a southern part and northern part. A statistical analysis is then performed on each grid cell. First, a count is made on if at least 50% of the trajectories travelled to either of the coast. If yes, the cell is marked as being a probable source of pollution for the particular coastal section. If not, the cell is marked as a part of an undefined area, propagation of pollution from which to any of the coasts is unlikely. The separation line of cells – probable sources of pollution to different coasts – evidently can be interpreted as the estimate of the location of the equiprobability line. The described method generally leads to quite a large level of noise and for this reason, we use another method for specification of this line that implicitly involves a smoothing process. The method consists of dividing the sea area into clusters of 3×3 grid cells and considering integral properties of pollution propagation from these clusters. By tracing nine trajectories in each cluster (one from each cell) it is established whether the majority of the trajectories end up at one of the coasts or stays in the open sea area. Results indicate that increase in the simulation time causes an increase in the low‐risk area. As the current fields in the Gulf of Finland exhibit strong seasonal variability, this feature suggests that a similar variability exists for low‐risk areas. The equiprobability line was found to be substantially shifted northwards from the axis of the Gulf of Finland for both the methods. Most of the area between the coasts is the area with the larger probability of hitting the southern coast. References: Döös K. (1995). Inter‐ocean exchange of water masses. Journal of Geophysical Research, 100 (C7), 13499– 13514. Soomere, T., Quak, E. (2007). On the potential of reducing coastal pollution by a proper choice of the fairway, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue 50, 678–682 Vries P. de, Döös K. (2001). Calculating Lagrangian trajectories using time‐dependent velocity fields. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 18 (6), 1092–1101. 6 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Integrated fish monitoring Lars Förlin Department of Zoology, University of Gothenburg, Box 463, S40530 Gothenburg, Sweden In the Swedish project “Integrated Fish Monitoring” in the Baltic Sea and Skagerrak (North Sea) areas environmental chemistry, fish ecology and functional performance of fish are integrated to assess long term trends of selected pollutants and fish health at individual and population levels. In this work the stationary behaviour and viviparity make the eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) well‐suited for environmental monitoring and ecotoxicological research. In this project we also use the perch (Perca fluviatilis) as an indicator species. We study the health of the fish to provide information of emerging impacts of pollutants or other stressors in the coastal environment. The fish health is assessed by a battery of biological effects. The eelpout is also included in several research projects and environmental monitoring programs currently run also in both Denmark and Germany. In Germany and Sweden eelpout samples are held in biobanks allowing retrospective studies. Here we will report on a broad set of biological endpoints in fish from reference sites which are characterised by no or small local sources of contaminants, from sites polluted by complex mixture of industry effluents and from sites polluted by activities in large harbours. The fish from references sites, which are characterised by no or small local sources of contaminants, are generally in good health. However, even fish from these sites show “early warning” signs of environmental changes over time. Fish from urbanised areas such as in the vicinity of large cities or industries show clear indications of effects caused by contaminants. Here we will also give an update of the Balcofish project where we explore and try to establish eelpout as a coastal indicator organism for assessing acceptable impact of pollutants in the Baltic Sea region. We will report on current monitoring activities, utilisation of an eelpout DNA microarray and other activities including for example workshops, guidelines and project database work in the Balcofish project. 7 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Assessment of reproductive disorders of fish and invertebrates as part of monitoring biological effects of pollution (BALCOFISH & BEAST projects) Jens Gercken1, Lars Förlin2, Jakob Strand3 and Brita Sundelin4 1 Institute or Applied Ecology Ltd., Alte Dorfstraße 11, DE‐18184 Neu Broderstorf, Germany 2 Department of Zoology, University of Gothenburg, Box 463, SE‐40530 Gothenburg, Sweden 3 National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University,Frederiksborgvej 399, DK‐4000 Roskilde, Denmark 4 Department of Applied Environmental Research, Stockholm University, Svante Arrhenius v 8c, SE‐10691 Stockholm, Sweden Reproduction and early development of organisms are one of the most sensitive targets with respect to biological effects from chemical compounds and environmental stress in general. Reproductive disorders are important effects of environmental stress since they could have effects at the population level. In both the BONUS projects BALCOFISH and BEAST reproduction related endpoints are part of a wide set of the monitored biological effects parameters. In relation to fish the eelpout (Zoarces viviparus), flounder (Platichthys flesus) and the three spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were selected as sentinel species for monitoring reproductive health. During the development of the gonad the histopathological assessment of gonadal tissue allows the detection of reproductive disturbance endpoints such as intersex in male and atresia in female fish. The intersex condition is defined by the simultaneous presence of female germ cells (oocytes) in the testis tissue. The presence of intersex suggests that affected fish were exposed to hormonally active substances causing endocrine disruption. In the developing ovary of females the occurrence of an abnormal amount of degenerating follicle/oocytes (atresia) is considered as a general indication of environmental stress. Because of the viviparous mode of reproduction of the eelpout pregnant females can be examined for “reproductive success” as recommended both by OSPAR and HELCOM for monitoring biological effects of contaminants. This comprises the registration of the reproductive capacity of the individual female, the mortality among larvae, the occurrence of malformations and growth inhibition of larvae within broods. With regard to invertebrates the BEAST project assesses the presence of reproductive disturbance in gastropods and crustacean species. For some prosobranch gastropod species the development of imposex, the superimposition of male sexual organs onto the female, in the presence organotin compounds has been extensively documented. In the North Sea, Kattegat and Belt Sea several species have been validated for monitoring TBT pollution through the imposex response. However, for the Baltic proper a bioindicator of TBT contamination is still lacking. In order to bridge this gap it is examined if the mudsnail Hydrobia ulvae is a suitable species for TBT biomonitoring in the Baltic Sea. Several signs of reproductive disorder have been reported in crustaceans from the Baltic Sea. The BEAST project focuses on amphipods which offer the possibility to assess several reproduction related endpoints such as size of the brood and prevalence of dead and/or malformed embryos. In the first year of BONUS fish and invertebrate sentinels were sampled at different locations of the Baltic Sea. First results of the presence of reproductive disorders will be presented. 8 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Integrated multidisciplinary assessment of the ecosystem health of the Gulf of Finland (BEAST project): Scheme of the 2009 twin expedition and first results Kari K. Lehtonen1, Thomas Lang2, Janina Baršienė3, Laura Andreikėnaitė 3, Nadezhda Berezina4, Sergey Golubkov4, Kristiina Vuori5 and Mirella Kanerva5 1 Finnish Environment Institute, Marine Research Centre, POB 140, FI‐00251, Finland vTI Institute of Fishery Ecology, Deichstr. 12, DE‐27472 Cuxhaven, Germany 3 Institute of Ecology of Vilnius University, Akademijos 2, LT ‐08412, Vilnius, Lithuania 4 Zoological Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Universitetskaya emb. 1, RU‐199034 Saint Petersburg, Russia 5 Centre of Excellence in Evolutionary Genetics and Physiology, Department of Biology, FI‐20014, University of Turku, Finland The GOF‐IA study (Integrated Multidisciplinary Assessment of the Ecosystem Health of the Gulf of Finland [GOF]) is a part of the BONUS+ BEAST project (Biological Effects of Anthropogenic Chemical Stress: Tools for the Assessment of Ecosystem Health). The "twin expedition" of the Finnish oceanographic r/v Aranda and German fisheries r/v Walther Herwig III was carried out in the GOF in August‐September 2009. The results collected will provide important new information especially on biological effects of hazardous substances in this Baltic Sea region. As the main goal, the unique data set resulting from the expedition will be used for an integrated assessment of ecosystem health in different sub‐regions of the GOF as a model for whole Baltic‐scale assessments. Sampling and observations were carried out at more than 20 pelagic and benthic stations, and 9 fish trawling areas in 6 different sub‐regions in Finnish and Estonian waters of the GOF. Samples were collected for (1) hydrography (inorganic nutrients, salinity, temperature, oxygen content), (2) biomarkers of hazardous substances in fish (including fish diseases and histopathology), zooplankton and bivalves, (3) hazardous substances and algal toxins in biota and sediment, and (4) abundance, biomass and structure of benthos, phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish communities. Mussels (Mytilus spp.) deployed earlier in cages in a suspected contaminated zone close to the city of Kotka were retrieved for analyses of contaminant accumulation and biomarker responses. The first results obtained show marked geographical variability e.g. in oxidative stress biomarker responses in zooplankton (Limnocalanus sp.), oxidative stress, geno‐ , cyto‐ and neurotoxicity biomarkers in the Baltic soft‐bottom clam (Macoma balthica), geno‐ and cytotoxicity biomarkers in the Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) and toxicity of sediments using an amphipod bioassay (Gmelinoides fasciatus). Further biomarker data and results on sediment and tissue levels of organic contaminants, heavy metals and algal toxins, pelagic and benthic community parameters in conjunction with the extensive hydrographic data collected from the study sites will be analysed in an integrated way to provide comparable measures (index scores) for ecosystem health in the different sub‐regions of the Gulf of Finland. 2 9 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Increase in parasite infestation by PFOS or TBT exposure in the Baltic amphipod Monoporeia affinis Therese Jacobson, Katrin Holmström and Brita Sundelin ITM, Department of Applied Environmental Science, Stockholm University, SE‐106 91 Stockholm Sweden Immunocompetence is a vital function in all animal groups. This function can be compromised by pollutants, leading to infection with mild or severe consequences. Immunocompetence has been extensively studied in vertebrates, however, the knowledge is less pronounced in arthropods. Arthropods possess only the innate immune system, not accompanied by the vertebrate humoral immune system. This leads to a distinction in pollutant effects. We have studied two pollutants of current interest, perfluorooctanesulphonate (PFOS) and Tributyltin (TBT) with respect to immunomodulatory capability in the ecologically important Baltic amphipod Monoporeia affinis. Studies were performed on field collected adults in microcosm experiments, with sediment containing intact meio‐ and macrofauna, during late gonad development. Results show that both PFOS and TBT, in environmentally relevant concentrations (PFOS in 930 ng/g tissue wet weight and TBT in 167 µg/ kg sediment dry weight), lower the immunocompetence of M. affinis, resulting in an increase in microsporidian parasite infestations (from ~20% to ~40% of the studied animals). This effect was accompanied by reproduction impairment such as decreased sexual maturation with PFOS exposure and an increase in dead oocytes with PFOS or TBT exposure. Microsporidia parasites are among the most common parasites in benthic amphipods and have been found in many amphipod species, both in gonadal tissue and muscle tissue. Severe consequences of microsporidian muscle infection are highly reduced activity, altered mating behavior, increased predation pressure and increased mortality with implications for population growth. It is present in field collected M. affinis from the Northern and Southern Baltic Sea and increases in its infection rates or virulence can have profound effect on the Baltic M. affinis population. The ecologically relevant effect of increased parasite infection with contaminant exposure is not possible to detect in standard toxicity tests of chemicals available to date. 10 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Key‐note lecture: Hypoxia in shelf seas: global perspective Nancy N. Rabalais Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Cocodrie, Louisiana, USA The basic physical and biogeochemical interactions that lead to hypoxia are similar—higher organic matter respiration reducing dissolved oxygen content than reaeration from mixing, advection or photosynthetic oxygen production in a physically stratified water column. Ecosystems subject to hypoxia, natural, human‐ induced, or a combination of the two have different dominant time and spatial scales of variability. Time scales range from hourly and days to seasonal events lasting weeks to months or to persistent year‐round hypoxia. The ecosystems in which hypoxia occurs range from inshore estuaries, through the coastal ocean and into ocean waters, over depths of 1‐ to 2‐m in estuaries to 600‐ to 700‐m in the open ocean. Continental margins, mostly depths from nearshore to within 100 m from shore, are susceptible to elevated primary production from high nitrogen and phosphorus loads from adjacent watersheds. Development of hypoxia in these ecosystems results primarily from anthropogenic activities that have increased the loads of nutrients to the coastal ocean, but the outer margin of continental shelves are also susceptible to the advection of nutrients from ocean boundaries. Shelf hypoxic areas are found where high freshwater discharge or summer thermal warming or both maintain a physically stratified water column over time sufficient for respiration to out‐pace reaeration. Shelf hypoxia is usually seasonal over several months and recurring on an annual basis, versus other ecosystems where hypoxia is episodic or periodic in estuaries and bays or permanent as in deep basins. The duration of hypoxia is instrumental in modulating biogeochemical cycles at the sediment‐water interface. For example phosphorus burial occurs in shelf environments but not to the same extent as burial in deep basins and not as ephemeral as in estuaries. With the expected increase in human population and need for food, fuel and fiber, there is an increasing likelihood that more coastal systems, where the physical conditions are appropriate, will become eutrophic. Global climate change will have as yet undefined effects on shelf hypoxia, but the increased surface water temperatures alone will facilitate its formation or intensify its severity. 11 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea INFLOW: State of the art ‐ high‐resolution sediment cores covering the past 6000 years Aarno Kotilainen1, Laura Arppe2, Slawomir Dobosz9, Eystein Jansen3, Karoline Kabel6, Juha Karhu2, Mia Kotilainen2, Antoon Kuijpers4, Bryan Lougheed8, Markus Meier5, Matthias Moros6, Thomas Neumann6, Daria Ryabchuk7, Ian Snowball8, Mikhael Spiridonov7, Joonas Virtasalo1, Andrzej Witkowski9 1 Geologian tutkimuskeskus, PL 96, 02151 Espoo, E‐mail: [email protected] 2 Department of Geology, University of Helsinki, Finland, 3 Unifob AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway 4 Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Denmark 5 Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden 6 Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW), Germany, 7 A.P. Karpinsky Russian Geological Research Institute (VSEGEI), Russia 8 Lund University, Sweden 9 University of Szczecin, Poland INFLOW (Holocene saline water inflow changes into the Baltic Sea, ecosystem responses and future scenarios) (2009‐2011) (http://projects.gtk.fi/inflow/index.html) is one of the BONUS research programme projects and it is funded by national funding agencies, participating institutes and the EU Commission. Geologian tutkimuskeskus (GTK) coordinates the INFLOW project that has 9 partners in seven countries of the Baltic Sea Region: Finland, Russia, Poland, Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway. We show the preliminary results of the field work activities conducted (and the sediment cores collected) by the INFLOW project Partners in the Baltic Sea in 2009. The field investigations concentrated on the whole INFLOW project study area: on a transect from the marine Skagerrak to the freshwater dominated northern Baltic Sea. The purpose of the field investigations was to take sediment samples from the study area to sediment proxy studies. INFLOW –project partners participated in several cruises onboard four research vessels (RV Maria S. Merian, RV Professor Albrecht Penck, RV Ladoga, RV Aranda) during 2009 that collected material for the INFLOW project purposes. The INFLOW field expeditions were organized by the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW), Germany (RV Maria S. Merian, RV Professor Albrecht Penck), A.P. Karpinsky Russian Geological Research Institute (VSEGEI), Russia (RV Ladoga) and The Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) (RV Aranda). Altogether, more than 50 sediment cores (including gravity cores, piston cores and different type of surface sediment cores) were successfully recovered from the different INFLOW project study areas. The key‐sites for high‐resolution studies have been selected on the basis of preliminary results (e.g. scanning data and first AMS14C results) received from these sediment cores. Precondition for high quality sediment proxy studies is well planned and successfully executed sediment coring. 12 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Long‐term changes in hypoxia in the Baltic Sea Daniel Conley1, Lovisa Zillén1, Conny Lenz1, Jacob Carstensen2, Marc Bassompierre2 1 Department of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, SE‐223 62 Lund, Sweden 2 Department of Marine Ecology, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK‐4000 Roskilde, Denmark The extent of hypoxia has increased over the last century, although present estimates are quite variable. One of the significant problems in determining the area of hypoxia is due to the rather limited number of point observations available. We are employing a variety of approaches in HYPER to determine how hypoxia has varied through time. Through application of a recently developed geostatistical analysis tool for spatial approximation within observations called DIVA (Data‐Interpolating Variational Analysis) we seek to determine the area of bottom covered by hypoxia using monitoring data. Application of DIVA should allow us to reconstruct the area of hypoxia during the last 120 years using data on Baltic Sea oxygen concentrations. In addition, we are using laminations found in sediment cores and geochemical and geophysical properties as indicators of hypoxia over the last ca. 8000 years. We will present our preliminary results from HYPER. Determining the timing and extent of the historical and geological occurrence of hypoxia will allow us to examine the driving factors creating and sustaining hypoxia on annual, decadal and millennial time‐scales, especially separating the effects of nutrient loading and climate. 13 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Baltic Sea macrofauna, hypoxia and implications for ecosystem functioning – emerging results from HYPER (WP4) Alf Norkko1, Erik Bonsdorff2, Anna Villnäs1,2, Joanna Norkko1,2, Alf Josefson3, Johanna Gammal2, Halina Rzemykowska4, Ursula Janas4 1 Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland 2 Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, Åbo, Finland 3 Department of Marine Ecology, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark 4 Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdańsk, Poland Soft‐sediment macrofaunal communities are central elements of Baltic Sea ecosystems and provide important ecosystem functions. These include the provision of food for higher trophic levels and, through the processing, reworking and irrigation of the sediments, benthic macrofauna enhance oxygen penetration and biogeochemical degradation of organic matter in the sediments. Macrofaunal communities in the open‐sea areas of the Baltic Sea are naturally constrained by the strong horizontal and vertical gradients in salinity and climate. At the same time the increased prevalence of oxygen‐depleted deepwater has emerged as the most important factor influencing the structural and functional biodiversity of benthic communities in the open Baltic. The potential loss of entire functional groups due to widespread hypoxia has severe implications for the functioning of Baltic Sea ecosystems. It is clear that abundances of some groups have been reduced over great expanses to such levels that they may be viewed as functionally extinct, i.e. without functional importance. The lack of macroscopic benthic life and concurrent heavily modified biogeochemical cycles may reduce the buffering capacity of the ecosystem against further negative effects of and hypoxia. We report on recent advances and results from the successfully completed HYPER cruise in 2009 and in situ experimental work on the effects of anoxia on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The oxygen conditions in the Baltic proper were poor and below 80‐90 meters depth there was no available oxygen and no macroscopic life in the sediments, and in most of the deeper areas toxic hydrogen sulphide occurred in the bottom water. The initial results indicate that the interactions between benthic animals and sediment chemistry are complex and highly variable both between sub‐basins in the Baltic Sea, and between hypoxic and normoxic areas within the same basin. Results from the in situ experiments help us understand the underlying mechanisms and ecological effects of these complex patterns and processes. The implications of changes in functional diversity, and how this may translate into changes in ecosystem functioning, are important, and a challenge for our understanding of biodiversity. These aspects are particularly critical in the Baltic Sea, where functional redundancy is low due to the low overall species and functional diversity. HYPER will provide insight into these processes in order to increase our ability to counteract the negative effects of large‐scale and long‐term hypoxia on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. 14 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Phosphorus recycling and burial in Baltic Sea sediments with contrasting redox conditions Caroline P. Slomp1, B.G. Gustafsson2, H.P. Mort1, D.C. Reed1, T. Jilbert1 1 Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, the Netherlands Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Sweden 2 The Baltic Sea is a classical example of a coastal system that is subject to an increased intensity and spatial extent of hypoxia due to human activities. The expansion of hypoxia since the 1960s is the result of increased inputs of nutrients from land (both from fertilizer and wastewater) and is negatively affecting living conditions for benthic organisms. In addition, the biogeochemical cycling of carbon and nutrients has been significantly altered. Water column studies have shown that the availability of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) is positively correlated with hypoxia due to release of phosphorus from sediment Fe‐ oxides and from organic matter upon the transition from oxic to hypoxic conditions. Thus, a large internal source of phosphorus exists in the sediment that largely controls short‐term variability in water column DIP concentrations. In this presentation, we present results of recent field and modeling work for various parts of the Baltic Sea that confirm the role of Fe‐bound P from seasonally hypoxic sediments at intermediate water depths as a major source of DIP. We also show that extended hypoxia and anoxia leads to depletion of sediment Fe‐ bound P and, ultimately, lower rates of sediment‐water exchange of P. Authigenic Ca‐P minerals are only a minor burial sink for P. The lack of major inorganic P burial sinks makes the Baltic Sea very sensitive to the feedback loop between increased hypoxia, enhanced regeneration of P and increased primary productivity. Historical records of bottom water oxygen at two sites (Bornholm, Northern Gotland) show a decline over the past century which is accompanied by a rise in values of typical sediment proxies for anoxia (total sulfur, molybdenum and organic C/P ratios). While sediment reactive P concentrations in anoxic basins are equal to or higher than at oxic sites, burial rates of P at hypoxic and anoxic sites are up to 20 times lower because of lower sedimentation rates. Nevertheless, burial of phosphorus in the hypoxic and anoxic areas is significant because of their large surface area and should be accounted for in budgets and models for the Baltic Sea. 15 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Resuspension effects in the shallow freshwater eutrophic lagoon: experimental & modeling study Arturas Razinkovas1, Christian Ferrarin2, Darius Daunys1, Ričardas Paškauskas1, Renata Pilkaitytė1 and Mindaugas Žilius1 1 Coastal Research & Planning Institute, Klaipeda University, Klaipeda, Lithuania 2 Marine Research Institute, Venice, Italy Being nearly completely freshwater, the Curonian lagoon of the Baltic Sea is the largest coastal lagoon in Europe. With mean depth of 3.5 meters and area over 1584 km², it is strongly affected by wind, where most of the currents are wind driven (Razinkovas et al., 2005). Ambient physical factors have been shown to play a crucial role in regulating the summer cyanobacteria blooms that are considered the most important ecological nuisance. Strong nitrogen limitation during summer induces domination of cyanobacteria, while variation in the wind climate is known to be a statistically significant factor in mediating cyanobacteria‐diatom shifts in the phytoplankton community (Pilkaityte & Razinkovas, 2006). Bentho‐pelagic exchange processes, including resuspension events, are expected to be extremely important in regulating biogeochemical processes. In this study we simulated resuspension events by stirring the sediment in mesocosms and assessing the benthopelagic exchange between sediment and water column. The sediment pore water nutrient concentrations were measured in situ in order to calculate nutrient balance and roughly estimate diffusive fluxes. Additionally, bottom sediment incubation in benthic chambers was performed to evaluate nutrient fluxes at calm weather conditions, and in situ water column chemistry was assessed before and after storm in the littoral zone of the lagoon. Experimental results indicated that resuspension could significantly enhance the diffusive transport of nutrients from the bottom sediments to the water column. Molar N:P ratios also shifted toward the nitrogen limitation threshold because of more effective mobilization of phosphorus compounds after the resuspension. To assess the spatial and temporal extent of resuspension events in the whole Curonian lagoon, a hydrodynamic SHYFEM model (Umgiesser, 1997) was applied. SHYFEM provided the potential resuspension event duration and spatial coverage based on the critical shear stress values for different sediment types. The resuspension may alter the biogeochemical cycles and lead to possible shifts in the phytoplankton limitation patterns. 16 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Measuring nitrification in sediments: comparison of two 15N stable isotope techniques Helena Jäntti, Susanna Hietanen Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences and Tvärminne Zoological Station, University of Helsinki, Finland, E‐mail: [email protected] The Baltic Sea is heavily influenced by excess nitrogen loads. Majority of the nitrogen mineralization occurs in the sediments where microbes break down nitrogenous compounds. Nitrogen is removed from the water ecosystem by anammox and denitrification processes, and the substrate for these processes is produced in nitrification in which ammonium is oxidized to nitrite and nitrate. Therefore nitrification is one of the key regulators for nitrogen removal. Nitrification and denitrification/ anammox are alternatives to each other in terms of presence of oxygen, but the sharp gradient of oxygen in the sediment allows these processes to operate in close proximity and to be highly coupled. There are estimates of denitrification and anammox but direct nitrification rate measurements are rare. A reason for a low number of nitrification studies is that nitrification rates are difficult to measure in situ. The development of mass spectrometry has made stable isotopes an attractive tool for nitrogen transformation studies. Stable isotopes, unlike radioactive isotopes, are not hazardous for health, and naturally occur in nature in low concentrations. Current mass spectrometers allow precise detection of the isotopic ratio even at very low enrichment levels, and consequently nitrogen conversions can be detected at high precision. There are two established 15 N based techniques for nitrification measurements: 15NO3‐ pool dilution combined to isotope pairing technique (IPT) and 15NH4+ oxidation technique. In 15NO3‐ pool dilution technique an intact sediment core is amended with 15NO3‐and the dilution of the 15N label in the NO3‐ pool by 14NO3‐ produced in nitrification is a measure of nitrification. IPT can be combined to 15NO3‐ pool dilution technique by measuring simultaneously the productions of 29N2 and 30N2. In 15NH4+ oxidation technique, the sample is amended with 15 NH4+ and the productions of 15NO3‐, 29N2 and 30N2are measured. Both of these techniques require a measurement of 15N abundance in NO3‐ (15N atom %). The atom % of NO3‐ cannot be directly measured from water and it is necessary to convert N from NO3‐ to a gaseous form. This can be done chemically or biologically, depending on the NO3‐ concentration and the 15N abundance. Here two 15N based stable isotope techniques for sediment nitrification measurements (15NO3‐ pool dilution and 15NH4+ oxidation) and three different 15N measurement techniques from bottom water NO3‐ are compared. 17 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea BALTIC GAS: The dynamic methane fluxes in the seabed Bo Barker Jørgensen1, Henrik Fossing2 and the BALTIC GAS team 1 Center for Geomicrobiology, Department of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114‐116, 8000 Århus C, Denmark 2 National Environmental Research Institute, Vejlsøvej 25, 8600 Silkeborg, Denmark Coastal seas are hotspots of methane formation, often enhanced by eutrophication. In the Baltic Sea, methane super‐saturation has led to the accumulation of free gas in the form of dense bubbles beneath the depth of sulphate penetration, several meters sub‐surface. This “shallow gas” has been detected in hundreds of square kilometres of the Baltic seafloor. Although the gas is continuously rising up towards the sediment surface, it is effectively broken down sub‐surface when reaching into the sulphate zone. Ebullition, however, can drive out methane which is a 25‐fold stronger green‐house gas than carbon dioxide on a molecular basis. Predicted climate change may affect not only temperature but also inflow of salt water, algal productivity, and distribution of anoxia, all of which will affect future gas accumulation and methane fluxes. During several cruises in the Baltic Sea, the methane distribution was mapped and the dynamic methane cycling was measured and modelled. Among the primary goals was to understand a) how the above mentioned factors affect methane fluxes and b) how the occurrence of free gas in the sediment affects the upwards migration of gas and the pressure on the sulphate barrier against emission from the sediment. New data have identified areas sensitive to high methane fluxes and methane ebullition. The study areas of 2009 include the central and southern Baltic Sea, the Bay of Gdansk at the Polish coast, Himmerfjärden at the Swedish coast, and Aarhus Bay at the Danish coast. In Aarhus Bay, a detailed transect combining seismo‐acoustic profiles with multiple gravity cores was analyzed from outside and into a gassy sediment area. The results showed a remarkable step‐up in methane fluxes by the transition into the gassy area. The results further showed a good correlation between methane distribution and fluxes and the acoustic depth of free gas. This correlation is now being developed into an algorithm for mapping hot‐spot methane fluxes from acoustic data. 18 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Nitrogen removal processes in the water column of the Baltic Sea Susanna Hietanen and Jorma Kuparinen Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland Nitrogen is the nutrient limiting most of the primary production in the Baltic Sea. Nitrogen mineralization processes are microbially mediated and to a large part controlled by oxygen concentrations, with anaerobic removal processes depending on aerobic processes for providing the substrate. Most of the nitrogen removal has been thought to take place in anaerobic sediments. Recent studies, however, show that globally significant quantities of nitrogen removal occur in the oxygen minimum zones in the oceans, with denitrification dominating in the Arabian Sea and anammox in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific. Hypoxic water volume in the Baltic Sea displays a negative relationship with the dissolved inorganic nitrogen pool, suggesting greater overall nitrogen removal with increased hypoxia. This pattern could be explained by water column nitrogen removal in this basin as well. In the project HYPER we explored nitrogen removal processes within the basin in March, May, July and September 2009, spatially covering the area with relatively stable hypoxic water masses. Both in situ rates and potential for nitrogen removal were quantified using state‐of‐the‐art stable isotope approach. The results will be discussed in the presentation. 19 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Factors influencing the acid‐base (pH) balance in the Baltic Sea: A sensitivity analysis Anders Omstedt, Moa Edman, Leif Anderson and Hjalmar Laudon University of Gothenburg, Department of Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Box 460, SE‐405 30 Göteborg, Sweden, E‐mail: [email protected] From calculations based on the marine carbon system and box‐ and numerical modelling, the sensitivity of the Baltic Sea pH is examined. From a transient long‐term calculation it was demonstrated that the surface carbon system is adjusted to the lateral boundary conditions within some decades, similar to salinity. Long‐ term calculations are therefore dependent on the lateral conditions, and thus changes on land, in the atmosphere and outside the Baltic Sea. The direct effect on sea water pH from acid precipitation over the Baltic Sea surface area was shown to be small even for significantly increased precipitation rates. Indirect effects on land (acid precipitation and land use change) may, however, have stronger influence on the pH balance. The acidification due to river transports of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into the marine system seems small. However, the mineralization of DOC may add extra acidification, but this effect is still unknown. Climate change within present estimated range in temperature (some degrees) and salinity (some salinity units) will only marginally change the acid‐base (pH) balance. Nor is it likely that a wetter or dryer climate will change the pH balance, due to compensating effects in the marine carbon system. Instead it is direct and indirect effects from fossil fuel burning that may affect the sea water pH and total alkalinity. This might cause threats within the Baltic Sea, particularly in the Northern Baltic Sea. References: Omstedt, A., Gustafsson, E. and K., Wesslander, (2009). Modelling the uptake and release of carbon dioxide in the Baltic Sea surface water. Continental Shelf Research 29, 870‐885. DOI: 10.1016/j.csr.2009.01.006 Omstedt, A., Edman, M., Anderson, L., and H., Laudon (2010). Factors influencing the acid‐base (pH) balance in the Baltic Sea: a sensitivity study. In manuscript. 20 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Continuous surface water CO2 measurements on a cargo ship: What can we learn about the biogeochemistry in the Baltic Sea? Bernd Schneider Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemuende, Germany A fully automated measurement system for the continuous recording of the surface water CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) was deployed on a cargo ship that commutes regularly at about two day intervals between Lübeck and Helsinki. The measurements started in 2003 and will be continued as a central part of the measurement programme within the BONUS Project Baltic‐C. The data will be used to identify and quantify biogeochemical processes that control the Baltic Sea CO2/carbon system: 1.) The surface water pCO2 constitutes a major control for the CO2 gas exchange with the atmosphere and will be used to estimate whether the Baltic Sea is a sink or source for atmospheric CO2. 2.) The pCO2 data can be used to calculate the seasonality of the total CO2 concentrations (CT) in the surface water. Since temporal changes in CT are mainly caused by the formation of organic matter, a CT mass balance allows to estimate the net biomass production in different regions of the Baltic Sea and during different stages of the plankton succession. This approach is especially useful during cyanobacteria blooms when other methods yield highly uncertain results. 3.) Since the pCO2 is directly related to the pH, the high resolution pCO2 data can be used to determine the spatial and temporal variability of the pH and of the calcium carbonate saturation. On a long term, pCO2 measurements are an efficient tool to detect pH trends in the Baltic Sea and, additionally, to attribute these to different processes such as increasing atmospheric CO2 and possible shifts in the biological productivity. 21 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Marine genetic biodiversity and ecosystem function – is this an issue? Kerstin Johannesson, Lena Kautsky, Helena Forslund, Sonja Råberg, Ricardo Pereyra, Daniel Johansson University of Gothenburg, Sweden Biodiversity and ecosystem function (BEF) research has this far focused almost exclusively at the level of species biodiversity. The main issue has been to address the question if increasing number of species will increase ecosystem function. Interestingly enough, there seems not to be a strong relationship between the number of species and the functioning of a typical natural ecosystem, but instead a minor set of key‐ species will essentially determine the health of the ecosystem. In contrast, results of recent studies investigating the role of genetic biodiversity seems suggest that there may be a more straight forward relationship between genetic biodiversity and ecosystem function. For the Baltic Sea, with its extremely poor species richness, the biodiversity maintained at the level of genes might be critical. In the BONUS project BaltGene we undertake experimental work to test the importance of genetic biodiversity for components of ecosystem function critical to the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Here I review earlier work of relevance for a general understanding of this issue and present preliminary data suggesting that genetic biodiversity may be an important component of biodiversity, not least in the Baltic Sea. 22 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 2: Understanding processes and assessing status of the Baltic Sea Relationship between environmental factors and biological features of benthic habitats in the Baltic Sea – a review Martin Snickars1, Johanna Mattila1, Mats Lindegarth2, Mikael von Numers1 1 Husö Biological Station and the Department of Biology, Åbo Akademi University, Biocity, Artillerigatan 6, FI‐ 20520 Åbo, Finland 2 Marine ecology, Gothenburg University, Box 461, S‐405 30 Göteborg, Sweden A set of well‐understood gradients, such as temperature, salinity and depth, governs the large‐scale distribution of species in the Baltic Sea by inducing gradual shifts in species assemblages across the sea. At regional scale varying physical settings and habitat types induce dissimilarities in coastal ecosystems and species distributions. The importance of environmental parameters in predicting species distribution has not yet been synthesized across these regions, although such knowledge is of great importance in marine management and modeling efforts. In this paper, the importance of different explanatory variables and the predictability of benthic habitat species were reviewed. The aim was to compile existing evidence on empirical relationships between explanatory and response variables in benthic habitats of the Baltic Sea. We reviewed a total of 141 peer‐ reviewed empirical field studies covering three decades and six sub‐regions from the Gulf of Bothnia in the north to the Kattegat in the southwest, and evaluated three response groups, Fish, Macroinvertebrates, and Macrophytes, ‐algae, on 17 explanatory variables identified in the studies. The total number of predictors and the frequency and type of interrelationship (joint or correlation effect) among the predictors were assessed. The general ‘knowledge base’ differs among Baltic regions as the studies are numerically biased, largely reflecting location of research centers, whereas studies on the response groups vary less in number. Exposure and depth are the most frequent explanatory variables, but the relative importance of the 17 variables differs among regions and groups, reflecting the characteristics of each region and group. The variables separate based on their average (high/low) frequency of interrelationship and dominating type of effect (joint/correlation). For example, studies involving ‘site’ and ‘exposure’ often show joint effect to other variables, whereas salinity and temperature more seldom are correlated to other variables. Also, frequency and type of interrelationship differ among the response groups. Fish‐studies include less often an interrelation term than do the two other groups. Macroinvertebrate‐studies are unlike the other ones generally regulated by a correlation effect, although studies on epifauna are dominated by joint effects. In summary, interrelationships among explanatory variables are common and vary among regions and response groups. They potentially influence the way we interpret species responses and thus also affect modeling efforts on benthic habitats. 23 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 3 A system of catchment – coast – sea continuum Holocene and modern climate changes in the coastal zone of the Eastern Gulf of Finland – problems and first results of the INFLOW project Daria Ryabchyk1, Vladimir Zhamoida1, Mikhail Spiridonov1, Igor Leontiev2, Alexander Kolesov3 1 A.P.Karpinsky Russian Geological Research Institute (VSEGEI), St.‐Petersburg, Russia P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS 3 St.‐Petersburg Regional Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring The Holocene geological history of the Eastern Gulf of Finland still has some gaps in knowledge. There is no distinct conception of the Holocene shorelines location. The palaeosalinity of basin as well as the timing, frequency and intense of Holocene saline water inflows is still unknown. The traces of environmental changes of the Baltic ecosystem can be found in the sedimentation basins as their sequences are “sedimentation annals”. On the other hand important details of the past and modern climate changes can be found by studying of the coastal zone. The INFLOW (Holocene saline water inflow changes into the Baltic Sea, ecosystem responses and future scenarios) – project aims to identify forcing mechanisms of environmental changes of the Baltic Sea over the past 6000 years by studying sediment archives. INFLOW studies ongoing and past changes in both surface and deep water conditions and their timing by means of multi‐proxy studies combined with state‐ of‐the‐art modelling approaches. Holocene transgression and regressions caused by climate change and regional tectonic movements are reflected in the terraces and plains, which are sharply defined in relief along the northern and southern coast of the Eastern Gulf of Finland. The maximal level of Litorina transgression is marked by a distinct scarp in the altitude from 18 to 35 m along the northern coast and from 10 to 23 m along the southern coast. The eastern shoreline of the Litorina Sea during its maximal transgression is not observed in relief. Between the highest marine terrace and the modern shoreline there are from two to four Litorina terraces. Besides during the VSEGEI investigation undertaken in 2005‐2008 (900 km of side‐scan sonar and echo‐ sounding, surface sediment sampling) the submarine terrace (about 18 km long, with the surface on the 4‐5 m of water depth and foot on the 8‐12 of water depth) was found along the northern coast of the Gulf. In order to explain the morphology of the observed submarine terrace and to correlate it with on‐land data, there was made an attempt to reconstruct the evolution of coast over period of late Holocene by using a mathematical modeling. The key assumption of the concept suggested is that at earlier stage the tectonic processes played the main role, while at later stage the sea‐level changes were of greatest importance. Study of the recent coastal processes has shown a significant influence of modern climate change on coastal dynamic. VSEGEI investigations allowed to find natural (geological and hydrometeorological) and technogenic reasons of coastal processes intensification. Geological and geomorphic factors determine the long term coastal zone development. The most important reasons of the long‐term coastal erosion are composition and properties of easily eroded Quaternary deposits (clays and sands) and sediment deficit caused by boulder benches forming as a result of glacial till erosion. The features of the near‐shore bottom relief (submarine terrace erosion, erosion runnels and other points of sediment loss) play a very important role in erosion processes as well. Hydrometeorological factors control the extreme erosion events, which take place in case of three factors coincidence – long‐term western or south‐western storm, high water level (more than 200 cm above the normal level of the Baltic Sea measured by Gorny Instutute Station and absence of ice). Analysis of long term hydrometeorological data shows that since 2004 the frequency of such coincidence has increased. 2 24 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 3 A system of catchment – coast – sea continuum Nutrient load reduction measures in a river basin and efficiency for coastal lagoon management Inga Krämer, G. Schernewski, H. Behrendt, T. Neumann & N. Stybel Eutrophication management is still one of the major challenges in the Baltic Sea region. Estuaries or coastal waters linked to large rivers cannot be managed independently. Nutrient loads into these coastal ecosystems depend on processes, utilisation, structure and management in the river basin. In practise this means that we need a large scale approach and integrated models and tools to analyse, assess and evaluate the effects of nutrient loads on coastal water quality as well as the efficiency of river basin management measures on surface waters and especially lagoons. We present an example where linked river basin and coastal water models were applied to analyse the effects of an optimal nutrient management scenario in the Oder/Odra river basin on water quality in the Oder (Szczecin) Lagoon and the Baltic Sea. This scenario would reduce e.g. nitrogen loads into the coastal waters by about 35 % (compared to the mid 1990's), a level which is similar to the late 1960's. The comparison between the late 1960's and the mid 1990's shows that an optimal nitrogen management has positive effects on coastal water quality and algae biomass. However, this realistic scenario is by far not sufficient to ensure a good coastal water quality according to the European Water Framework Directive. A good water quality in the river will not be sufficient to ensure a good water quality also in the coastal waters. Nitrogen load reductions further bear the risk of increased potentially toxic, blue‐green algae blooms. However, to achieve water quality improvements in lagoons and inner coastal waters, nitrogen cuts are necessary. A mere focus on phosphorus is not sufficient. Against this background we give an overview about possible nutrient retention measures in the river basin and their efficiency. 25 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 3 A system of catchment – coast – sea continuum Nitrogen balance in the Curonian Lagoon of the Baltic Sea revisited Arturas Razinkovas, Mindaugas Žilius, Ričardas Paškauskas and Renata Pilkaitytė Coastal Research & Planning Institute, Klaipeda University, Klaipeda, Lithuania The Curonian lagoon is a highly eutrophic estuarine lagoon receiving nutrient inputs from a drainage basin of 100000 km², mostly the Nemunas river, including 45000 tons of nitrogen per year. Previous studies have shown that phosphorus is the primary limiting nutrient during spring, while inorganic nitrogen is normally very low during summer. However, previous studies did not account for all of the important N sources. For example cyanobacteria could have high abundances from late June through October in the lagoon that also plays an important role in the nitrogen fixation. The nitrogen budget is subjected to the high interannual variation in riverine N discharges as well as atmospheric N fixation driven by climate. We present an updated estimate of the nitrogen balance that includes river discharges, precipitation, nitrogen fixation and consumption by the reed belts abundant in the shallow parts of the lagoon. The estimate also includes the most recent data on denitrification and bentho‐pelagic exchange. The updated balance will be discussed in the view of the regional climate scenarios and possible effects of proposed N emission reduction measures in the Nemunas river watershed. 26 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 3 A system of catchment – coast – sea continuum Updating the 3D Baltic Sea biogeochemical model for better estimates of future management actions Päivi Korpinen, Heikki Pitkänen and BONUS+ project IBAM Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) The main objective of the IBAM project is to produce an integrative environmental decision model for the Gulf of Finland (GOF) with Bayesian networks. The model will be used to rank decision options, and it will include uncertainty in human responses to management. The project integrates five major human‐induced risks: eutrophication, fishing, climate change, dioxin and oil spills. The scenarios calculated with the 3D Baltic Sea biogeochemical model will give a basis for the eutrophication approach to update the probabilities in the final integrative Bayesian model. Nutrient scenarios covering different management actions will be calculated in 2010 in IBAM project. The new, updated version of SYKE‐EIA 3D biogeochemical model will be used in this work. The update of the model has been performed as a separate project funded by the Ministry of the Environment, Finland. The problems caused by nutrient loads from the catchment areas of the GOF have become familiar to the public especially when surface blooms of cyanobacteria became usual phenomena in the late 1990s. Modeling is an important, and in many respects the only tool, to predict the effects of different measures planned to tackle eutrophication in different protection programmes and political plans. The SYKE‐EIA 3D model has been used and developed for the Baltic Sea from the beginning of 2000s. The model has been used both for evaluating protection strategies and in the production of nutrient conditions for other models. In the new model version flow fields have been newly calibrated with weather, river flow and ice data from 2000‐2004 (previously 1995‐1999). Excessive vertical mixing is a common problem in 3D models used for the Baltic Sea, since the origin and parameterization of the models is from the oceans, where conditions are very different from the Baltic. Data assimilation was introduced for both temperature and salinity in the physical part of the model to improve the description of stratification in the model, and to keep the vertical mixing more close to natural conditions. The sediment module was developed with spatial information on sedimentation bottoms, and on new data on iron‐bound phosphorus reserves. New validation of the 3D model for the GOF and example scenarios will be presented. 27 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 3 A system of catchment – coast – sea continuum Evaluating the combined effects of nutrient load reduction and climate scenarios for the Baltic Sea catchment Chantal Donnelly, Johan Strömqvist, Joel Dahné, Jörgen Rosberg, Wei Yang and Berit Arheimer A high resolution, process based hydrological and nutrient flux model was set up for the entire Baltic Sea catchment area using the HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) model. The HYPE model introduces the ability to model detailed hydrological processes at high resolution simultaneously and homogenously across many river basins. When using a modelling tool to assess water resources and their quality for a basin entailing several political entities, it is an advantage that the methods and data used are homogenous across such political boundaries. Readily available, regional and global databases were used to set up the model inputs including topography, precipitation, temperature, landuse, soil‐type, and nutrients from atmospheric, agricultural, industrial and urban wastewaster sources, over the entire model domain. Daily river runoff data from the Baltex and GRDC databases was used to calibrate and validate the parameters describing runoff processes against, while monthly and seasonal data from the European Environment Agency’s WISE database was used to calibrate and validate the water quality parameters in the model. The model application is able to reproduce measured daily flow variations and magnitude in both large and small waterways across the model domain, and measured seasonal variation and overall magnitude of nutrient fluxes to the Baltic Sea. Total yearly volumes of discharge, total nitrogen and total phosphorus also compare well to published figures for total fluxes to the Baltic Sea (Helcom PLC‐group, 2008). Figures 1(a), (b) and (c), show the modelled yearly average results across the Baltic Sea catchment basin for discharge, total Nitrogen and total Phosphorus, respectively. This is the first time these variables have been modelled, at this resolution, simultaneously and homogenously across a model domain of this scale. The validated model can be used as a tool to examine the effects of different climate and remedial measure scenarios for both the land regions of the model domain, and influxes to the Baltic Sea. To ascertain how future climate change and the nutrient reduction scenarios mandated in the Baltic Sea Action Plan may affect the future state of the Baltic Sea, the model application was run using downscaled, bias‐corrected, temperature and precipitation data from an ECHAM5 model climate scenario using A1B emissions forcing. Another model runs was made using a remedial measure scenario for nutrient inputs in which best agricultural and wastewater treatment practices are adopted across the Baltic Sea catchment area for both present and future climate scenarios. These scenario model runs were then compared to determine the relative effects of climate change and nutrient reduction scenarios on the fluxes of freshwater and nutrients to the Baltic Sea. Reference: HELCOM PLC‐Group, 2008. Waterborne loads of nitrogens and phosphorus to the Baltic Sea in 2006. HELCOM Indicator Fact Sheets 2008. Online. 2009‐11‐17, www.helcom.fi/environment2/ifs/en_GB/cover/ 28 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 3 A system of catchment – coast – sea continuum Models and budgets addressing nutrient fluxes from the Baltic Sea catchment Christoph Humborg, C‐M. Mörth, D.P. Swaney, B. Hong, E. Smedberg, H.E. Andersen and F. Wulff We have constructed N and P budgets for all 83 major Baltic Sea river basins that are monitored by calculating all net anthropogenic nutrients inputs (NANI) as a function of human needs and agricultural practices as derived from detailed FAO food and feed statistics, fertilizer use and atmospheric deposition of N and P. The NANI concept has been successfully used for assessing nutrient sources for the nutrient management of US river basins. The relationship between NANI and the riverine export of N and P to the Baltic can show sensitive river basins, i.e. those river basins where watershed retention is low so that they export high proportions of the their loadings, i.e., and in which remedial measures should have a large impact on coastal loadings. Within the BONUS project RECOCA, we apply a nested hierarchical approach to simulate nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea ranging from farm scale over regional meso‐scale river basins representing EU water districts and characteristic river basin types to entire Baltic Sea catchment scale. The complexity and level of detail of the simulation models used reflect the different scales. Effects of improved sewage treatment, application of P‐free detergents and changes in agricultural practices such as the use of cover crops, manure storage, reduced fertilizer use etc. on a Water District and/or Baltic Sea basin scale are simulated by the regional river basin models SWAT and Daisy; examples for type watersheds and preliminary results will be given. Both models dynamically describe surface and ground water nutrient concentrations as a function of land use. These type concentrations will then be used by large scale CSIM and visualized by the NEST decision support system to upscale the detailed scenario analysis as performed by Daisy and SWAT. Independently, the NANI calculations will be used to calibrate the large scale CSIM model using empirical relationships found for nutrient loadings and type concentrations in the major rivers. All presented budgets and models will deliver critical information on watershed nutrient retention, (a key variable for estimating cost functions for nutrient load) reductions and will inform cost allocation schemes for riparian countries of the Baltic. 29 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 4: Building the knowledge‐based governance and management of the Baltic Progress of BAZOOCA Peter Tiselius1 and Kajsa Tönnesson2 1 Department of Marine Ecology ‐ Kristineberg, University of Gothenburg, Sweden Department of Marine Ecology ‐ Göteborg, University of Gothenburg, Sweden 2 The project has been running for one year now and accomplished several important tasks. We have conducted monthly monitoring cruises in the Baltic and one dedicated process cruise in October. I will present data on the distribution of Mnemiopsis in the southern and central Baltic. Several workshops have been performed and I will show results from experiments on feeding on cod eggs and larvae. Potential predators have been investigated and a range of experiments conducted on the feeding and assimilation of Mnemiopsis. Although most data are still being worked up, I will show glimpses. Complementary data are given in the poster session on the BAZOOCA poster. Based on this first year of sampling and experiments, we have adjusted plans for the further work. I will present our ideas and directions and hope to receive suggestions after the talk. 30 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 4: Building the knowledge‐based governance and management of the Baltic Identifying high risk areas of pollution in the western Baltic Sea Andreas Lehmann, Hans‐Harald Hinrichsen, Klaus Getzlaff Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany, E‐mail: alehmann@ifm‐geomar.de One of the main aims of the BONUS+ BalticWay project is to identify areas that are at high and low risk of coastal pollution in the Baltic Sea. About 76 ports handle more than 1 million t of cargo per year in the Baltic Sea including the Kattegat. The busiest port is St. Petersburg, Russia with more than 14,500 ship operations per year. The number of ship operations (passages, excluding ferry traffic) is estimated at 150,000 per year, and it is assumed that shipping activities will considerably increase in the near future. The already environmentally sensitive Baltic Sea and its coastal areas are susceptible at high risk for pollution and unintended introduction of invasive species. On the basis of 3‐dimensional numerical model simulations (BSIOM) of the whole Baltic Sea including Skagerrak and Kattegat we used a Lagrangian particle tracking model to identify high risk areas of pollution for the western Baltic Sea. The model has been forced by realistic atmospheric conditions for the period 2000‐2008, thus providing realistic three‐dimensional current fields for the whole Baltic Sea. Along the official ship routes in the western Baltic Sea in a distance of 2 km, drifters have been launched every fifth day of a year. In total 46,800 drifters have been released in one year. Typical drift duration was 10 days. High risk areas of pollution have been identified for those areas where high numbers of drifters reached the coast. Calculated risk areas are a function of the distance from the point of release to the coast, the atmospheric forcing and underlying current fields which are topographically steered. Changing climate conditions which are manifested by changing wind conditions will have an impact on the distribution of high risk areas. 31 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 4: Building the knowledge‐based governance and management of the Baltic Semi‐persistent patterns of transport in surface layers of the Gulf of Finland Tarmo Soomere, Nicole Delpeche, Bert Viikmäe Institute of Cybernetics at Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 21, 12618 Tallinn, E‐mail: [email protected] The BONUS+ BalticWay project attempts to identify the regions that are associated with increased risk to other sea areas and to propose ways to reduce various risks by placing activities in the most suitable areas. A solution to this inverse problem is sought by means of statistical analysis of a large pool of solutions to an associated direct problem of current‐driven transport of adverse impact (a generic example of which is an oil spill). We report results of the analysis of a large ensemble of Lagrangian transport paths of water and pollution particles in the Gulf of Finland and in the northeastern Baltic Proper. The trajectories are determined with the use of TRACMASS code from three‐dimensional current velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre Regional Ocean model with a resolution of 2×2 miles. The ability of the method to adequately reflect the basic properties of current patterns in the Gulf of Finland is implicitly verified by means of considering the ratio of net and bulk transport for simulations of different length. The resulting estimates of the typical size of mesoscale eddies match well independent estimates of Rossby radius. The pool of trajectories covering several years is then used to evaluate the basic parameters of current‐driven transport that cannot be extracted directly from the velocity data: the average net transport rate in different directions, the ratio of average net and bulk transport (equivalently, the ratio of the final displacement and the length of the trajectories), and the duration of time it takes for pollutants to hit the coasts. These parameters allow estimating whether or not the proposed approach would lead to substantial benefit in a given area. Further analysis of average fields of net and bulk transport indicate the existence of various semi‐persistent patterns of currents, including unexpectedly pronounced transport pathways across the Gulf of Finland. Their presence leads to a high variability of the transport of dangerous substances and adverse impacts from different sea areas to the vulnerable areas. This variability and accompanying heterogeneity of current‐driven transport opens a principally new way towards the use of intrinsic properties of marine dynamics for reducing the environmental risks stemming from shipping, offshore, and coastal engineering activities. The key benefit is an increase of time during which an adverse impact (for example, an oil spill) reaches a vulnerable area after an accident has happened. 32 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 4: Building the knowledge‐based governance and management of the Baltic Managing systems of uncertain states – the case of fisheries Noél Holmgren1, Niclas Norrström1, Robert Aps2, Sakari Kuikka3 1 University of Skövde, Sweden 2 University of Tartu, Estonia 3 University of Helsinki, Finland The IBAM project aims at analyzing integrated risks of ecosystem management introducing estimates of uncertainty in the decision support. One of the issues in the project is sustainable management of fisheries and its impact on the ecosystem and its services, here to provide high quality food resources (and the economy associated). Fish stocks are managed under uncertainty of their actual size and run the risk of being over‐exploited or ultimately collapse. We evaluate a new management tool that combines catch and effort (Bayesian quota) compared to the current method of just managing by catch (total allowable catch). The Bayesian quota uses the stock size estimate and its variance as information prior to the fishing season. Reported catches and effort are integrated in a Bayesian way to calculate the posterior stock size estimate. Compared to traditional TAC control, the Bayesian quota is expected to reduce risks of over‐harvesting, produce higher yields with lower inter‐annual variation. In the project we study herring as a model species, and compare the stocks in two regions, the Main Basin and the Bothnian Sea. We use ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Seas) data and stock assessment results to estimate life‐history parameters of the two stocks. In particular we identify density‐dependent elements that are used to quantify the carrying capacity and the production capacity of the regional ecosystems. The performance of the alternative management policy is compared with regular catch‐controlled management in computer simulations. Models of the Baltic herring stocks are constructed from estimated parameters, including stochasticity based on the inter‐annual variation in the stock parameters. This will serve as a base model for integrating other ecosystem elements of the IBAM project, such as oil spills and eutrophication. 33 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 4: Building the knowledge‐based governance and management of the Baltic Regional cost‐effective nutrient abatement – integrated modelling results supporting management in the Baltic Sea region Berit Hasler1, S.L.Brodersen, M. Czajkowski, K.Elofsson, M. Konrad, K. Munch, A. Was, T. Zylicz 1 Department of Policy analysis, National Environmental Research institute, Aarhus University, Denmark In the NEST model system for the Baltic Sea a COST model has been implemented as a regionalized model covering 24 regions, drainage basins, basic information on abatement costs and nutrient fate. The spatial division of the COST model is compatible with the marine model in the NEST system, such that each region drains into one of the marine basins defined in the marine model. The abatement options included are measures in the agricultural, energy and transport sectors and wastewater treatment, with the largest number of measures in the agricultural sector. This implies that both emissions to air and water are included in the cost‐minimisation. Application of integrated models such as the NEST model are highly relevant for the implementation of both the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Marine Strategy Directive (MSD); as both directives require that cost‐effective measures are used to obtain good ecological status. The integrated model framework covering drainage basin modelling of agricultural production, sewage treatment, nutrient losses, retention and transports ‐ and economic cost minimisation is an effective instrument to enable such analyses, because of the spatial focus on where different actions are undertaken, including the transport of the nutrients in the soil, in freshwater, into the coastal areas and in and between the Baltic sea regions. The development of this model as part of the RECOCA project and the activities in the Baltic Nest Institutes in Sweden and Denmark involves among other things the integration of SWAT and NANI models in drainage basins with regional economic models. This integration provides detailed and consistent data for the economic modelling, e.g. on crops grown, fertilisation and yields, and capture that the cost‐effectiveness of abatement measures depends on spatially variable economic and environmental factors. Due to the lack of empirical economic data for all catchment and drainage basins in the Baltic area for a number of agricultural measures such as reduced nutrient applications, increased utilisation of manure, catch crops etc., farm optimisation models are used to simulate and estimate cost functions for the nutrient abatement measures in type catchment areas, where the SWAT and NANI models are also applied. Thus the integrated modelling of cost‐effective combinations of agricultural measures are demonstrated for chosen type catchments within the Baltic Sea area. In the regional modelling attention is also paid to model the regional retention and maximum potential of the different measures in the catchments. Hereby reliable results are produced with the ability to support the governance and management of the Baltic Sea including cost‐ effective implementation of the directives. 34 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 4: Building the knowledge‐based governance and management of the Baltic The implications of the nature of scientific knowledge to linking science and policy in the case of the Baltic Sea eutrophication Mia Pihlajamäki1 and Nina Tynkkynen2 1 Finnish Institute of International Affairs 2 University of Tampere, Centre for Advanced Study Eutrophication is regarded as one of the most serious environmental risks for the Baltic Sea. A multitude of protective policies and measures have taken place since the early 1970s, but the problem of eutrophication has not been solved. In this paper we argue that the basic dilemma of eutrophication prevention is rooted most significantly in the knowledge—policy interface. One of the challenges of knowledge—policy interface is that ecological and biological facts concerning the Baltic ecosystem, which already are relative well known, do not lead to effective environmental protection policies. The process in which knowledge revealed by natural science is “transmitted” into certain policy outcomes seems thus to be disturbed at some point. Another challenge of knowledge—policy interface, even more fundamental than the first one, is rooted in the diversity and intricacy of scientific knowledge itself. In this paper, we scrutinise different features of knowledge that have implications on the science—policy interface in the case of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. The research question guiding our analysis in this paper is: What kind of features of scientific knowledge can be distinguished, and in what ways do these features influence the science—policy interface in the case of the Baltic Sea eutrophication? We approach the issue mainly from the viewpoint of knowledge production, although some of the features introduced by us in this paper might be perceived to refer to the process of knowledge processing and/or knowledge communication and use as well. Our analysis is mainly based on in‐depth interviews of eutrophication experts and scientists working for the academia and sectoral research institutes in Finland. In our analysis we distinguish between five different features of scientific knowledge that have various implications for linking science and policy in the case. These features are the following: (1) the uncertainty of knowledge concerning ecological processes, (2) the heterogeneity of knowledge, (3) the societal and political call for (certain) knowledge, (4) the contingency of the knowledge that ends up taken as a baseline for decision making and further research, and (5) the linkages of knowledge production, processing and communication to particular characteristics of individual researchers and research societies. Our analysis shows that science—policy interface is in many ways influenced by the nature of scientific knowledge, embedded in the processes of knowledge production, processing and communication, itself. Even in issues where there is a unanimous scientific understanding, scientific interpretations are usually challenged by other, competing views on the issue. Inevitably, scientific knowledge is only one component in policy making and cannot be transformed to political advice as such, without taking into consideration different political and societal forces. More importantly, we have tried to illustrate in this paper that these forces also affect on the construction of scientific knowledge itself. 35 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 4: Building the knowledge‐based governance and management of the Baltic Comparing the governance of environmental risks in the Baltic Sea Michael Gilek, RISKGOV project Södertörn University, Huddinge, Sweden, E‐mail: [email protected] Despite decades of substantial efforts by multiple actors on local, national, European and international levels to counteract negative environmental trends in the Baltic Sea, major disturbances to important ecosystem properties still exist. It is hence necessary to develop an interdisciplinary and integrated scientific basis for improving governance, assessment and communication of environmental risks. Therefore, the RISKGOV project aims at improving our understanding of the structures and processes that shape the governance of environmental risks in the Baltic Sea as well as at identifying conditions and opportunities that could improve risk governance and thereby promote the implementation of the ecosystem approach to management (EAM). The analysis is based on a comparative case study approach where five important environmental risk areas (i.e. eutrophication, overfishing, invasive species, hazardous chemicals, and oil discharges) are compared in terms of (i) governance structures, (ii) risk assessment and risk management interactions and (iii) stakeholder communication processes. In order to ensure comparability over cases, a unified analytical framework has been developed by which crucial topics such as multi‐level decision‐making, institutional interaction, stakeholder involvement and communication, problem framing, risk assessment – risk management interactions, and treatment of uncertainties and complexities will be addressed. We will in this presentation outline the major theoretical and methodological components of the analytical framework as well as discuss major similarities and differences in the governance of the studied Baltic Sea environmental risks in relation to the EAM and risk evaluation criteria such as extent of damage, probability of occurrence, incertitude and potential of mobilisation. Keywords: environmental risk governance, risk assessment, risk management, stakeholder communication, ecosystem approach to management 36 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 4: Building the knowledge‐based governance and management of the Baltic Media Framing of Environmental Risks in the Baltic Sea Anna Maria Jönsson Media and Communication Studies, Södertörn University, E‐mail: anna‐[email protected] To understand how environmental risks are framed, assessed and communicated is of utmost importance in today’s society. Media has a decisive role in influencing what issues are to be put on the political agenda and what decisions are made, by whom and on what grounds. How an issue is framed affects how we construct meaning on and make decisions on these matters. Frame analysis is a useful perspective for studying the collective maps that are communicated through e.g. media, and implies that reality is always portrayed in a limited way that favours some aspects rather than others. The Baltic Sea ecosystem is stressed and exposed to many different risks like eutrophication, overfishing, hazardous chemicals, oil pollution and introduction of invasive species. But to what extent and in what way are these issues acknowledged in public discourse and have there been any changes over time? Based on an analysis of the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, this study discusses media representations and framings of these risks. The study evolves around two main sets of questions: 1) How are these environmental risks represented in news media? Which risks receives the most attention and has there been any changes over time? 2) How are these environmental risks framed in the news media? What is identified as problems, causes and solutions? Which are the main actors? How do media frame environmental risks in terms of uncertain or certain knowledge? For the framing analysis the study focus on the case of eutrophication. The results of this study show that the Baltic Sea in news media is generally represented as a political space and/or a geographical place. Generally between 25 and 35 percent of the news articles concerning the Baltic Sea in some way address environmental issues. Many articles acknowledge several different risks but if we take a look at the risks separately, it can be stated that eutrophication is the environmental risk that receives the most media attention. In terms of framing the general pattern is that agriculture and its use of phosphor and nitrogen is presented as the problem and political restrictions on agriculture is often presented as a solution. The main actors in the mediated discourse on eutrophication are politicians, authorities, NGOs, LRF (union for farmers) WWF and scientific experts (mainly natural scientists). What is put forward by advocates for a deliberative democracy and an important part of the governance concept is that decisions should be preceded by discussions in the public arena, and that these discussions should involve those affected by the decisions. The news media shape the public discourse in that they influence who has access to the arena or public sphere and who gets to participate in the discourse. Against this backdrop it is worth noting that, as is often the case in environmental news reporting the public is more or less invisible. Environmental risks are framed as problems on a societal level and a problem to be solved by political policies and decision‐making procedures generally do not seem to include the citizens. 37 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 4: Building the knowledge‐based governance and management of the Baltic Societal Conditions for the Baltic Sea Protection: Russian Case Dmitry Nechiporuk Center for European Studies, European University at St. Petersburg The paper presents the results of the first year research conducted in the framework of the PROBLAT projects. Therefore, it reflects the main research question of the project connected with the understanding of decision‐making process that is between the scientific knowledge and policy instruments as well as arguments and political interpretations already existing and potentially needed for their implementation. In general, the PROBALT project focuses on the main factors of eutrophication in each country, which differ from country to country. The first results of the Russian research team are connected with the general analysis of the policy instruments and interpretations on the national level as well as on the level of the related Subjects of Federation. Later in the framework of the project, they will be compared with these of other Baltic Sea countries studied by the other participants of the project. Russia has taken part in the international process concerning the Baltic Sea protection since many years, primarily through participation in the HELCOM activities. As its member, Russia has obligations to implement its Action Plans into practice, but is not as successful in this policy as it could be expected. The preliminary analysis shows at least two major problems of the policy‐making and implementation towards Baltic Sea protection. Firstly, it is a gap between the legislation, which is available in Russia, and not really prescribed implementation measures. It is connected with uncertain division of responsibilities and competencies between different authorities involved into the process. It concerns both different ministries on the national level (horizontal coordination) and between national, regional and local levels (vertical coordination). Secondly, difficulties with the involvement of non‐governmental actors like scientists, NGOs activists, journalists etc., which are traditional for Russia, also weaken policy implementation processes. The research of policy‐making and implementation was conducted also on the regional level, i.e. level of Subjects of Federation. For the Baltic Sea protection, three regions are of special interest, these situated on the Baltic Sea coast: St. Petersburg city, Leningrad and Kaliningrad oblasts. Among them, Kaliningrad oblast is the most problematic what concerns success of the measures eliminating euthrophication sources. The empirical research done in Kaliningrad showed that the policy‐making and implementation is also connected with the gap between well developed scientific research and expertise, due to the Western funding and business interests in the Baltic Sea, and weak policy instruments available for the regional and local authorities. 38 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Session 4: Building the knowledge‐based governance and management of the Baltic The capacity of the European Union to solve the problem of Baltic Sea eutrophication Tom Schumacher Kiel University, Institute of Social Sciences, Division for Peace and Conflict Research, Breiter Weg 10, 24105 Kiel / Germany, www.frieden.uni‐kiel.de, www.probalt.fi The presentation will be a reflection on preliminary research results related to the question, whether the EU provides an appropriate framework for addressing Baltic Sea eutrophication. In order to enhance the understanding of the EU’s role in this respect, the possibilities and limits of those of the Union’s policies will be considered that are of direct relevance for the marine environment of the Baltic Sea, e.g. maritime‐, air pollution‐, environmental policy and the CAP. Moreover, the presentation will give an assessment of the institutional setting of the EU and its potential to offer efficient structures for the development and implementation of regional specific environmental challenges. A conclusion might be that because of the segmentation of policy responsibilities and a tendency to harmonize policy solutions on the overall European level it is rather difficult to develop optimal solutions for a distinct region. However, more promising tendencies seem to have evolved in recent years. A stronger involvement of regions in European policy making, efforts of policy integration and the newly emerging notion of a macroregional level in European decision making seem to move the political system of the EU towards greater flexibility and hereby also offer new starting points for more efficient marine protection policies for the Baltic Sea. 39 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania 40 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania POSTERS Selected highlights from the ECOSUPPORT project ......................................................................................... 43 Filling gaps in environmental time series – a model inter‐comparison ........................................................... 44 New data on development of the Gdansk Basin in the Late Pleistocene ‐ Holocene according the result of investigations of the core‐section #303700‐7 (r/v Poseidon cruise) ............................................................... 45 Identification of the regional distribution of gassy sediments in the Baltic Sea by application of Geo‐ Information‐Systems (BalticGas) ...................................................................................................................... 46 Biogeochemistry of methane and its potential oxidants in Himmerfjärden estuary sediment, Sweden ........ 47 Hypoxia events in the Gulf of Gdańsk and chemical and biological responses – historical data from 1989 to 2008 .............................................................................................................................................................. 48 Dead or only almost dead: the importance of increasing stress for benthic ecosystem functioning .............. 49 Formation of sediment fine structure in the Baltic Sea deep areas ................................................................. 50 Dynamics of oxygen deficiency conditions in the Eastern Gulf of Finland in the last decade ......................... 51 Processes of the nitrogen cycle in the redoxcline of the Baltic Sea from an isotopic perspective .................. 52 Adaptation and application of a Baltic Sea Ecosystem Model to a coastal ecosystem .................................... 53 Nitrate uptake during spring outflow in the nitrate‐rich Curonian and Oder lagoon ...................................... 54 Benthic oxygen uptake in the eutrophicated Boreal Lagoon (se Baltic Sea) .................................................... 55 Transfer‐function modelling from climate and runoff to nutrient loading and concentrations in the Baltic Sea .................................................................................................................................................................... 56 Monthly nutrient emissions and loads to the Odra River Basin ....................................................................... 57 The impact of submarine ground water discharge (SGD) on a coastal ecosystem of the southern Baltic Sea: Results from the AMBER project .............................................................................................................. 58 Impact of groundwater discharge on fauna ..................................................................................................... 59 BAZOOCA ‐ Baltic Zooplankton Cascades ......................................................................................................... 60 Climate‐related long‐term trends and spatial variability in the zooplankton community of the Central Baltic Sea .......................................................................................................................................................... 61 The large scale spatial distribution of plankton communities in a transitional coastal lagoon ....................... 62 The role of abiotic factors in the distribution of macrophytes in the shallow eutrophic SE Baltic Sea lagoon ............................................................................................................................................................... 63 Spatiotemporal modeling of the common reed on the Finnish coast ............................................................. 64 Recovery of bottom communities after recent hypoxic events in the eastern Gulf of Finland ....................... 65 Towards a diatom‐based transfer function for the Baltic Sea: I. Analysis of sediment‐surface diatom assemblages. .................................................................................................................................................... 66 Preliminary note on dinoflagellate cysts from the Bornholm Basin in the Baltic Sea...................................... 67 Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in Baltic populations of mussels Mytilus ........................................... 68 Multi‐endpoint studies on Zoarces viviparus, using gene expression oligonucleotide microarray ................. 69 Eelpout – a fish indicator of biological effects in Danish coastal waters ......................................................... 70 41 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Integrated assessment of TBT pollution in the Baltic Sea – integrating environmental quality criteria for chemical and biological effects measurements ............................................................................................... 71 Effects of environmental contamination on immune functions of the blue mussel Mytilus spp. considering abiotic variations in brackish water systems of the Baltic Sea ..................................................... 72 Laboratory exposure experiment with Mytilus edulis from the western Gulf of Finland– effects of varied salinity on biomarkers with added PAH exposure ........................................................................................... 73 Ecosystem state assessment of different sub‐regions of the Baltic Sea based on cardiac activity biomarkers of bivalves ...................................................................................................................................... 74 Experience of bioassay with the amphipod Gmelinoides fasciatus to assess sediment quality in the Gulf of Finland: the approach and first results ........................................................................................................ 75 A brown algae Fucus vesiculosus as potential biomarker of the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea (BEAST project) ............................................................................................................................................................. 76 Phytoplankton biomass versus chlorophyll a: do they show the same water quality? ................................... 77 Assessment of the ecosystem health of the eastern Gulf of Finland by means of histopathology of zooplankton species ......................................................................................................................................... 78 Interactions between ecosystem and human environment in Baltic coastal waters under Climate Change and the need for adaptation measures ............................................................................................................ 79 Consensus building as an element of science‐policy co‐production ................................................................ 80 Policy‐Making and Implementation in the Baltic Sea Protection in Russia ...................................................... 81 Accidental versus operational oil spills from shipping in the Baltic Sea – Institutional responses and risk governance ....................................................................................................................................................... 82 Environmental sensitivity mapping in Lithuanian marine areas ...................................................................... 83 42 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Selected highlights from the ECOSUPPORT project The ECOSUPPORT consortium The response of the marine ecosystem during the 21st century depends on several, partly competing drivers, like expected reduced phosphorus and nitrogen loads, increased water temperatures, and reduced salinities. Thus, presently discussed targets for nutrient load reductions that may be sufficient to improve the ecological status in present climate might fail under future climate conditions. The proposed project ECOSUPPORT combines the assessments of various drivers to promote an ecosystem approach to the management of human activities. The main aim of ECOSUPPORT is to provide a multi‐model system tool to support decision makers. The tool is based upon scenarios from an existing state‐of‐the‐art coupled atmosphere‐ice‐ocean‐land surface model for the Baltic Sea catchment area, physical‐biogeochemical models of differing complexity, a food web model, statistical fish population models, economic calculations, and new data detailing climate effects on marine biota. The expected outcome is an advanced modeling tool for scenario simulations of the whole marine ecosystem that can underpin and inform design strategies to ensure water quality standards, biodiversity and fish stocks. For the aims of ECOSUPPORT 14 research groups from 11 institutes and from 7 Baltic Sea countries formed an excellent consortium consisting of University institutes, national governmental agencies and research institutes (including EU‐recognized Centers of Excellence) with a wide range of expertise. The poster will summarize selected results from the work performed during the first year of the project duration. 43 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Filling gaps in environmental time series – a model inter‐comparison Joachim W Dippner1, Jari Hänninen2, Karin Junker1, Amaury Lendasse3, Ilppo Vuorinen2 1 Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany 2 Archipelago Research Institute, University of Turku, Finland 3 Helsinki University of Technology, Finland Marine environmental time series may often have gaps for different reasons e.g. bad weather conditions or financial limitations. Those gaps are in general a handicap for a consistent description of structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. Here we present an inter‐comparison of different mathematical techniques to fill those gaps. 44 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania New data on development of the Gdansk Basin in the Late Pleistocene ‐ Holocene according the result of investigations of the core‐section #303700‐7 (r/v Poseidon cruise) Andrey Grigoriev1 , Vladimir Zhamoida1 , Mikhail Spiridonov1 , Alla Sharapova1 , Vadim Sivkov2 & Darya Ryabchuk1 1 Russian Research Geological Institute (VSEGEI), 74 Sredny Prospect, 199106 St.Petersburg, Russian Federation, E‐mail: [email protected] 2 Atlantic Branch of P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (AB IO RAS), 1 Prospect Mira, 236000 Kaliningrad, Russian Federation, E‐mail: [email protected] Core‐section 12.35 m long was sampled in the Gdansk Basin within the cruise of r/v“Poseidon” in the frame of Russian‐German Project GISEB. Down‐core analyses of the sediment core include 14C and 210Pb dating, X‐ ray diffraction, pollen, grain‐size and geochemical analyses and were carried out partly under support of RFFI‐BONUS grant 08‐05‐92420 (Project INFLOW). A high‐resolution record of climate and environment in the Gdansk Deep from the Bölling to Subatlantic has been established. Palynologic analysis allowed distinguishing 10 pollen assemblage zones, which are corresponded with climatic events from Bolling‐Middle Dryas to Subatlantic time. These data taking into account radiocarbon dating allowed to precise position of lithostratigraphic boundaries and calculate rate of sedimentation changing from 0.37 to 1.62 mm yr‐1. For the first time analysis of Br concentration in the Baltic Sea sediments was used for determination of the salinity of pore‐waters and accordingly paleo‐salinity of water basins. From the stage of the Baltic Ice Lake and to the end of Ancylus Lake development the sediments are characterized by homogenous Br concentration distribution and calculated salinity about 20/00. Formation of the Yoldia Sea did not followed by salinity increasing within the Gdansk Basin. The beginning of the stage of Littorina Sea development (Mastogloyay Sea) characterized by markedly increasing of Br concentration and calculated salinity up to 90/00 that is evidence of transformation of fresh‐water lacustrine to marine brackish‐water conditions. The Littorina Sea development was characterized by four maximums of salinity as a result of influence of marine transgressions. The maximal paleo‐salinity (up to 170/00) is fixed in the sediments accumulated during the end of Atlantic time. Analysis of the grain‐size distribution of the Holocene sediments allowed distinguishing four episodes of increasing of near‐bottom current activity in the Gdansk Deep which were coincided with transgression‐regression cycles of the Baltic Sea development. 45 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Identification of the regional distribution of gassy sediments in the Baltic Sea by application of Geo‐Information‐Systems (BalticGas) Torben Gentz, Martinez, R., Schlüter, M. Alfred‐Wegener‐Institute for Polar and Marine Research In the Baltic Sea several regions are characterized by intense formation of methane in surface sediments. This includes areas within the Bornholm Basin, Arkona Basin, Aarhus Bay, Eckernfoerde Bay as well as the Bay of Mecklenburg. For these regions high methane concentrations and the occurrence of free gas in sediments are reported. In spite of the widespread occurrence of gassy sediments in the Baltic Sea, still little is known about the magnitude of gas storage, the flux of methane into the water column, and the impact of environmental changes on the stability of these “biogas” reservoirs. Ebullition of methane from the seabed might cause emissions of this greenhouse gas into the atmosphere or cause hazards to seabed structures such as wind farms, pipelines, power or communications cables, and off‐shore drilling operations. Consequently, investigations of methane emission in the Baltic Sea, about gas storage and effects of climate change and eutrophication has relevance for several stakeholders. Although some areas are well investigated, information about the spatial extends of gassy sediments, of the occurrence and extends of pockmarks (morphological features at the seafloor, where gas seepage is often observed), or the spatial pattern of forcing factors increasing the formation of methane are rather scarce. Within the framework of the BalticGas project we compiled spatial information regarding the formation and occurrence of methane in surface sediments. For this purpose data obtained by former EC projects like METROL or BALANCE or obtained by data mining were integrated into a GIS. The compiled geodata include sediment distributions, forcing factors for the formation of methane (e.g. oxygen depletion in bottom waters, organic matter concentration in surface sediments, particle fluxes, sulphate concentration, pore water composition etc.). Based on these data sets and application of multicriteria decision analysis predictive maps about the spatial distribution of gassy sediments will be derived. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the forcing factors will be computed by geostatistical and contouring techniques. These grids will be provided to the partners of the BalticGas project as data input for the numerical Transport Reaction Modelling. First results of these objectives will be presented. 46 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Biogeochemistry of methane and its potential oxidants in Himmerfjärden estuary sediment, Sweden Nguyen M Thang1, Timothy G. Ferdelman1, Volker Brüchert 2, Gunter Wegener1, Michael J Formolo1, Maja Reinholdsson3, Bo Barker Jørgensen1,4 1 Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology, Bremen, Germany, E‐mail: tmnguyen@mpi‐bremen.de 2 Department of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm University, Sweden 3 Department of Geology, Lund University, Sweden 4 Center for Geomicrobiology, University of Aarhus, Denmark The distribution of methane in shallow marine sediments and its control by biogeochemical processes, as well as the effect of eutrophication, has been the focus of the current BONUS Baltic Gas project. Himmerfjärden estuary, Sweden, provides a natural setting to study how a) low salinity (5‐7), b) high organic matter deposition due to an upstream waste water treatment plant, c) annual algal blooms (http://www2.ecology.su.se/dbHFJ/index.htm), and d) high overall sedimentation rates (1.3cm a‐1; Bianchi et al., 2002) in a shallow water body of the Baltic Sea impact the production and consumption of methane and sulfate. During a recent research expedition to Himmerfjärden in May 2009, three stations representing the variable influx of organic matter and nutrients were selected for sediment sampling. Sediments were sampled using a multicorer and deeper sediments were sampled with a Rumohr corer. Pore water sulfate and methane profiles were used to correlate depths in these cores. Sediment samples were collected to determine the methane gas gradient. Pore water samples were taken to measure sulfate, sulfide, chloride, iron, and dissolved inorganic carbon. Solid phase sampling included total organic carbon, total sulfur, total nitrogen, acid volatile sulfide (AVS), chromium (II) reducible sulfide (CRS), and reactive iron and manganese minerals. Additionally, radiotracer experiments for sulfate reduction and methane oxidation rates were conducted. Finally, some results were utilized in diffusion models to calculate the fluxes of methane, sulfate and sulfide between the sediments and the water column. The results showed that 1) the methane and sulfide fluxes from the sediments vary among the sample locations. The CH4 flux increased (0.016 ‐ 0.035 mmol cm2 a‐1) in contrast to the decrease of organic matter flux in the water column and the sulfate flux (0.056 – 0.034 mmol cm‐2 a‐1) from the water column to the sediment; 2) the sulfate methane transition zone is positioned between 10 and 20 cm depth while the sulfate reduction rates (0.055 – 0.31 mmol cm‐2 a‐1 ) and the anaerobic oxidation of methane (0.06 mmol cm‐2 a‐1) were low; 3) two distinct zones of sulfate reduction of approximately equal magnitude were observed, one zone driven by organoclastic sulfate reduction (3 – 7cm depth) and the other by the anaerobic oxidation of methane (10 – 20 cm depth); 4) interestingly, there are high organic sulfur concentrations in the sediment throughout the fjord (138 – 251 μmol g‐1). We conclude that the biogeochemistry of methane and carbon cycling are controlled by sulfate reduction in Himmerfjärden estuary as well as other low salinity water bodies with elevated organic carbon inputs in the Baltic Sea. In addition, the modelled methane fluxes are strongly dependent on high organic carbon delivery and sulfate reduction rates among the three sites. 47 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Hypoxia events in the Gulf of Gdańsk and chemical and biological responses – historical data from 1989 to 2008 Katarzyna Łukawska‐Matuszewska1, Urszula Janas2, Dorota Burska1 1 Department of Marine Chemistry and Marine Environmental Protection, Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdańsk, Al. Marszałka Piłsudskiego 46, 81‐378 Gdynia, Poland 2 Department of Experimental Ecology of Marine Organisms, Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdańsk, Al. Marszałka Piłsudskiego 46, 81‐378 Gdynia, Poland Eutrophication is one of the greatest problems of the Baltic Sea. Nutrient over‐enrichment leads to increased primary production, harmful blooms and dissolved oxygen depletion in near‐bottom water. As a result of measures taken in all the Baltic Sea countries concerning the limitation of contaminant discharge into the surface waters and, consequently to the Baltic Sea and on the other hand – a rapid decrease in the use of mineral fertilizers in the early 1990s and the growing popularity of polyphosphates‐free detergents, a winter decrease in the level of phosphate concentration in surface waters (0‐10 m) of the Gulf of Gdańsk is noticed. Whereas the concentration of phosphates slightly decreases in the whole water column above the halocline, the increase of concentration in the near‐bottom waters is observed. Apart from the external input, the source of excessive phosphorus loading are sediments under hypoxic conditions. Oxic conditions in near‐bottom waters of the Gulf of Gdańsk are governed by the inflows of oxygenated and salty water from the North Sea and by the periods of stagnation following them. Oxygen depletion in near‐bottom water in the Gdańsk Deep was not observed only in few years during 19‐year period (1990‐1991 and 1996). In the other years, layer of water with hypoxic conditions was 10‐30 m thick and periodically extended into the inner part of the Gulf of Gdańsk. The decreasing oxygen concentration in the near‐bottom water was accompanied with increasing concentration of phosphates. The average phosphate concentration in the Gdańsk Deep (measured 1 m above the bottom) increased from about 1.6 mmol m‐3 in 1989‐1992 to over 9 mmol m‐3 in 2004. During the last few years phosphates concentration slightly decreased and was about 3 mmol m‐3 in 2007. Hypoxia seriously affects the benthic communities in the Gulf of Gdańsk. No benthic fauna was observed in the Gdańsk Deep since 1996. The decrease in abundance and biomass of benthic macrofauna was recorded above halocline from the second half of the 1990s until 2002. At the end of this period in some areas only 10 % of macrofauna abundance from 1994 was found. In 2003 recolonization process has been started, mainly by the clam Macoma balthica and the amphipod Pontoporeia femorata what indicate improvement of oxygen condition. However, cold stenothermal species Saduria entomon and Halicryptus spinulosus have not recoverd at depths of 30‐60 m until now. 48 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Dead or only almost dead: the importance of increasing stress for benthic ecosystem functioning Anna Villnäs1, Alf Norkko, Joanna Norkko 1 Research Programme for Marine Ecology and Biodiversity, Marine Research Center, Finnish Environment Institute, P.O. Box 140, FIN ‐ 00251 Helsinki, Finland, E‐mail: [email protected], phone: +358 40 182 3335 Disturbance of soft‐sediment communities results in the loss of habitats and changes in biodiversity. Still, the impacts of gradually increasing disturbance intensity for ecosystem functioning are poorly understood. Oxygen deficiency is a widespread threat to benthic communities, and might hence impair their contribution to ecosystem functioning. While the negative impacts of oxygen deficiency on benthic communities are well established, few studies have assessed in situ how benthic communities subjected to different degrees of hypoxic stress affect benthic ecosystem functioning. We studied changes in benthic nutrient fluxes by artificially inducing oxygen deficiency of different durations (4, 10 and 50 days) in a subtidal sandy habitat. Benthic chamber incubations were used for measuring the responses in sediment nutrient fluxes. Changes in benthic community structure were quantified and stress induced behavioural changes were assessed by observing bivalve reburial rates. Prolonged duration of oxygen deficiency resulted in increased degradation of the benthic communities, reduced structural and functional composition and slow bivalve reburial rates. In terms of ecosystem functions, increasing disturbance altered sediment fluxes of oxygen, nitrogen species as well as silicate, while fluxes of PO43‐ and tot‐P were not altered significantly. Our study indicates that the level of induced stress, in form of oxygen deficiency, alters the way benthic communities contribute to ecosystem processes. Keywords: macrofauna, disturbance intensity, oxygen deficiency, benthic ecosystem function, nutrient fluxes 49 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Formation of sediment fine structure in the Baltic Sea deep areas Joonas J. Virtasalo1, Thomas Leipe2, Matthias Moros2, Aarno T. Kotilainen1 1 Geological Survey of Finland, FI‐02151 Espoo, Finland Department of Marine Geology, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestrasse 15, D‐ 18119 Rostock, Germany 2 Due to oxygen deficiency on the seafloor, the accumulation of laminated sediments is widespread in deep areas of the Baltic Sea. These laminites are commonly believed to record annual variation in the composition of particles settling by slow fallout from suspension in the water column. However, the inspection of X‐radiographs of long sediment cores from the Gotland Deep reveals occasional lamination‐ discontinuity horizons that are overlain by gently inclined downlapping lamination. These features contradict the traditional view of mud accumulation by settling from suspension under quiescent conditions, but are more compatible with the lateral accretion of flocculate muds from bedload transport (moving water). The changed inclination and thickness of laminae at the discontinuity horizons reflect changes in the direction and/or rate of lateral mud accretion due to shifts in the local current patterns. Upon compaction, the gentle downcurrent inclination of laminae becomes indistinct, making the mud in the narrow cores appear predominantly parallel‐laminated. The laminated sediments alternate with frequent thin biodeformed interbeds and longer burrow‐mottled intervals. The frequent biodeformed beds result from brief (few years to few decades) oxic conditions that permitted the shallow disturbance of sediment surface by meiofauna and poorly‐specialized nectobenthic species, which were passively imported with currents from more oxic areas. The long burrow‐mottled intervals are characterized by discrete trace fossils, bivalve biodeformational structures and basal piped zones, which represent shallowly penetrating feeding and grazing strategies and permanent dwellings. These intervals result from longer‐lasting (several years to few centuries) oxic conditions that permitted the larval settling of opportunistic endobenthic worm‐like macrofauna and bivalves. Finally, the laminated sediments are interbedded by erosional, thin structureless beds that are distal mud turbidites. The turbidity currents were likely triggered by severe storms in the adjacent coastal areas. Long sediment records studied in the INFLOW project provide detailed information e.g. on the variability of oxygen conditions in the Baltic Sea deep areas and benthic response to that over the past thousand years. The X‐radiograph inspection shows that sediments in these deeps were formed under more dynamic and oxic depositional conditions than previously thought. Reference: Virtasalo, J.J., Leipe, T., Moros, M., Kotilainen, A.T.: Physicochemical and biological influences on sedimentary‐fabric formation in a salinity and oxygen‐restricted semi‐enclosed sea: Gotland Deep, Baltic Sea. In revision in Sedimentology. 50 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Dynamics of oxygen deficiency conditions in the Eastern Gulf of Finland in the last decade Tatjana Eremina Russian State Hydrometeorological University Development of areas of oxygen deficiency in the Eastern Gulf of Finland is a result of several factors effect and the reasons of their occurrence are studied rather well (Shpaer, 1997, Maksimov, 2006). At the same time change of oxygen conditions has significant inter‐annual variability and its study is very important for assessment of eutrophication development in the Eastern Gulf of Finland (Savchuk, 2005, Pitkänen, 2001). The main goal of this work was to analyze the inter‐annual dynamics of oxygen conditions in deep‐water layers and its relation to environmental conditions in the Eastern Gulf of Finland for 2000‐2009 years. Hypoxic (anoxic) conditions developed in 2000‐s in deep‐water layers were determined by a large variability of area of hypoxic zones. Reasons of development of oxygen deficiency zones in this period are considered and compared to previous decades. Main results are discussed. 51 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Processes of the nitrogen cycle in the redoxcline of the Baltic Sea from an isotopic perspective Sven Meyer and Maren Voß Leibniz‐Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemuende, Germany Nitrogen is part of the most important nutrients (nitrate, nitrite, ammonia) for primary production in the Baltic Sea. Its transformation processes are strongly coupled to oxygen concentrations. Therefore increasing hypoxia has a significant influence on the nitrogen cycle. To understand the coupling of processes within the nitrogen cycle several interlinked transformation processes have to be considered. Nitrogen stable isotope distribution in the dissolved and particulate pool can help to unravel the processes. Therefore, we will measure concentrations and δ15N values of NH4+, ‐NO3‐ and the δ18O of NO3‐ in the redoxcline in the Landsort Deep and in the Gotland Deep. It is known that denitrification in the redoxcline is carried out to a major extend by a chemolithotrophic Proteobacterium which is currently being cultured at the IOW, Warnemuende in the working group of K. Jürgens and M. Labrenz. Therefore it is planned to measure an isotopic enrichment factor for autolithotrophic denitrification in a culture experiments with these culture. This type of denitrification is a major process in the Baltic Sea redoxcline instead of the heterotrophic denitrification. If the isotopic enrichment factor is significantly lower than the factor of the heterotrophic denitrification, this might be one possible reason for low δ15N‐NO3‐ values in the denitrification horizon of the Baltic Sea (about 5‰) compared to the oxygen minimum zone of the eastern tropical North Pacific (up to 18‰) for example. Another reason might be a strong coupling between nitrification and denitrification. Because nitrification lowers the δ15N of the nitrate pool, it might compensate the effect of denitrification and leads to these lower values. To better understand the processes, we will combine knowledge from the in‐situ sampling with the ones from the culture experiments and try to establish a mathematical model, to combine all process and fractionations. We may also investigate processes of anaerobe ammonia oxidation and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonia, but until now nothing is known about their fractionating behavior. To better understand differences in published denitrification rates in the sediments a study using different incubation technique of the North Sea sediments was carried out. The Isotope Pairing Technique (IPT) carried out with the batch‐mode method will be compared to in situ chamber experiments. The in situ chamber experiments were done by A. Johannsen from the Institute for Coastal Research, Geesthacht. 52 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Adaptation and application of a Baltic Sea Ecosystem Model to a coastal ecosystem Frank Schäffer, Thomas Neumann, Gerald Schernewski Leibniz‐Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany, E‐mail: frank.schaeffer@io‐ warnemuende.de Changing land uses, socio‐economic transformation processes as well as global climate change will alter the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. In this context the coastal lagoons play an important rule since these acts as a source, sink and transformational area for riverine input of nutrients and pollutants. Thus, the coastal lagoons control the quality of coastal ecosystems and, to a certain degree, the status of the Baltic Sea. Function and functional changes of coastal lagoons and interaction in terms of exchange processes between the lagoons and the Baltic Sea are whether not well understood nor subject of current models. Preceding and ongoing simulations with the Baltic Sea Ecosystem Model (ERGOM) covers the whole Baltic Sea with a horizontal resolution of about 3 nautical miles. Therefore the model is unsuitable to address the dynamics of changing processes caused by future changes in land use and socio‐economic behave in small coastal lagoons like the Odra‐Lagoon. For this reason we have adapted ERGOM to run on localised areas like the Odra‐Lagoon. The model now runs on a 350x320x15 grid with a horizontal resolution from about 95 to 270 meters and covers the area between 13.868°E – 14.627°E and 53.65°N – 53.91°N. Here we will present the first results of application of the model compared to measurement data and show that we are now able to trace the role of water‐column as well as biogeochemical processes within the lagoon and its function in terms of exchange between the river Odra, the lagoon and the Baltic Sea. 53 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Nitrate uptake during spring outflow in the nitrate‐rich Curonian and Oder lagoon Frederike Korth, Iris Liskow and Maren Voß Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestraße 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany Within the project AMBER (Assessment and Modelling Baltic Ecosystem Response) a cruise with RV “Professor Albrecht Penck” took place in March 2009. The aim of our study was to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of the nitrogen outflow and the nitrate vs. DON (dissolved organic nitrogen) uptake. DON is known to play a major role as a nitrogen source for primary producers but is poorly quantified. Nitrate uptake was measured in the Oder outflow (Poland) and in the Nemunas outflow (Lithuania) using a 15 N tracer technique (Dugdale and Goering 1967). Nitrate uptake rates ranged in the Oder outflow from 1.6 – 235.2 nmol N/l*h (average: 60.3 nmol N/l*h) and in the Nemunas outflow from 5.7 – 20.8 nmol N/l*h (average: 11.5 nmol N/l*h). On average, nitrate concentrations in the surface in the Nemunas and Oder were measured to be 42.1 and 46.2 µmol/l, respectively. In the Oder outflow the spring bloom was already developed. Chlorophyll a values were three times higher (16 mg/m³) compared to the values in the Nemunas outflow (5 mg/m³). With the help of this dataset and runoff values for the Oder and Nemunas uptake budgets for nitrate and also DON will be calculated. 54 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Benthic oxygen uptake in the eutrophicated Boreal Lagoon (se Baltic Sea) Mindaugas Zilius1, Marco Bartoli2, Arturas Razinkovas1 1 Coastal Planning and Research Institute, E‐mail: [email protected] Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Parma, 43100 Parma, Italy 2 Seasonal and spatial dynamics of oxygen uptake by sediments was investigated in the surface sediment of the large shallow highly eutrophic coastal lagoon in the SE Baltic, in May, July and October in 2009. The Lithuanian part of the lagoon is dominated by fine sandy sediments that are poor in organic matter and strongly affected by wave‐driven sediment resuspension, while muddy sediments rich in organic content cover small areas in deeper parts. Oxygen uptake was measured at 5 sites representing main bottom sediment types in the lagoon in two different ways: microprofiling and intact cores incubation in the lab. Calculations of the diffusive fluxes of O2 across the sediment water interface were based on application of Fick’s Law to the concentration profiles. The total oxygen uptake by sediments ranged from ‐0,30 to ‐1,70 mmol m‐2 h‐1 in May, from ‐1,23 to ‐2,14 mmol m‐2 h‐1 in July and from ‐1,23 to 3,67 mmol m‐2 h‐1 in October, diffusive oxygen fluxes calculated from profiles ranged from 0,03 to 1,13 mmol m‐2 h‐1 in May, from 0,27 to 1,64 mmol m‐2 h‐1 in July and from 0,40 to 1,34 mmol m‐2 h‐1 in October. It is evident that in muddy sites located in the deeper part of the lagoon, exchange of oxygen at the sediment–water interface is based on molecular diffusion only, while in shallow sandy sediments the exchange is based on hydrodynamical conditions. The variability in uptakes in between seasons could also be affected by the difference in water temperature and biogeochemical properties of sediment. 55 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Transfer‐function modelling from climate and runoff to nutrient loading and concentrations in the Baltic Sea Jari Hänninen and Ilppo Vuorinen Archipelago Research Institute, University of Turku, FI‐20 014, Turku, Finland There are only few modelling, or other studies done between loadings of P and N in the Baltic Sea and respective concentrations reported from the same period in the sea. Using transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic weather patterns and subsequent changes in the Baltic Sea runoff and salinity, mesozooplankton and, finally, herring growth. The same reasoning is in this paper hypothetically extended to general Baltic system regulation and the actual nutrient loading and concentrations in the sea. This study is divided into three main questions: 1) Will increasing the number of predictors (North Atlantic and arctic weather indices) in the TF exercise improve our understanding of the Baltic Sea system regulation? 2) Is it possible to model Baltic nutrient loading on the basis of climatic factors, and the runoff, and nutrient concentrations in the incoming water masses? and, 3) Is it possible to model nutrient concentrations in the sea using loading as the predictor ? We also studied horizontal (regional and basin wide) and vertical (i.e. thermocline and halocline) scale effects in nutrient concentrations? Climate indices ‐ had specific influence in the Baltic freshwater runoff regulation. The most obvious difference between models could be detected in observed time lags. Larger geographical area, in general, meant longer regulation effect, i.e. delayed response from weather effect to a response of freshwater runoff into the sea. On the other hand, in north‐south direction, the northern areas showed lagged response indicating stronger winter effect in north and east. NAO was evidently the best index to explain general runoff regulation. AO showed inverse and much longer regulation response. Iceland SLP indicated weaker but very similar kind of regulation as NAO, but inversely. Also Hoburg wind speeds resembled very much the NAO regulation. Nutrient loading ‐ Nutrient loading models indicated very strong coupling between nutrient loading and freshwater runoff. All models showed that loading had instant response to runoffs in every geographical area studied. Nutrient concentrations ‐ The effect of tot‐P loading can been seen in seawater surface layer total P concentrations, with a lag of about one year in the central Baltic Sea, and a bit longer in the Gulf of Bothnia. None of our models for nitrogen manifested any connection between the nitrogen loading and concentrations in seawater, regardless of the chemical form (organic/inorganic) of the substance. 56 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Monthly nutrient emissions and loads to the Odra River Basin Jens Hürdler and Markus Venohr Leibniz‐Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Dept. of Lowland Rivers and Shallow Lakes, 12587 Berlin, Germany, E‐mail: huerdler@igb‐berlin.de, Phone: +49 30‐64181691 Nutrient emissions by river systems are one of the main pollution sources into the Baltic Sea. Annual emissions and loads can be used to describe general nutrient fluxes. By the recently improved and implemented method to calculate monthly fluxes with MONERIS the link between spatial patterns of nutrient emissions and their effect on water quality aspects in aquatic systems has been established. Beyond that, emissions hot spots and contributing sources can be identified more precisely. Like this the evaluation of the cost‐effectiveness of management options can be conduction on a new basis and deliver helpful arguments for political decisions and the implementation of management plans. Under the framework of BONUS, the EU‐Project AMBER (Assessment and Modelling Baltic Ecosystem Response) was established in 2009. Main focus of the program is to establish a link between ecological needs and appropriate political management options. Direct atmospheric deposition on the sea and loads from the surrounding river systems are the dominant nutrient sources and strongly influence the Baltic Ecosystem. For this it is fundamental to know the functional relationship between emissions in the river basins, transformation and retention of limnic systems and the resulting loads from the river to the coastal waters. For this study the Odra as an important emitter of nutrients to the Szczecin Lagoon and the Baltic Sea has been chosen to study this relation. By linking the climate model ECHAM4 and HadAM3H and the nutrient emissions model MONERIS the effect of changing precipitation and temperatures on the loads to the sea can be modelled. MONERIS additionally is able to describe the potential of measures to reduce emissions on the total nutrient fluxes in the river Odra. The Oder River basin is located south of the Baltic Sea and covers an area of 118,611 km². [2] The Odra River is 912 km long with mean discharge of 550 m3/s at the mouth to the Szczecin lagoon. The River Basin is one of the highest pollution emitter to the Baltic Sea, caused by intensive agricultural use and 15.5 Mio. inhabitants. [1] MONERIS has been applied to model nutrient inputs by point sources and diffuse pathways. Input data was derived from digital maps and statistical information with a spatial distribution to the catchment by using a geographical information system (GIS). For the time period of 1983 to 2005 a monthly calculation were conducted. The calculations were performed on basis of 493 sub‐catchment with a mean size of 240 km². Hot spots of emissions can be identified in the mountainous parts in the south (erosion), in central parts (agriculture) and single sub‐catchments (urban systems). The monthly results suggest that temporal variation of emissions is manly driven by hydrology and temperature Point source emissions are less influenced by changing hydrology. Like these point sources predominate total emission in dry months, whereas tile drainages gain importance during wet months. This pattern can be found for TN and TP. By identifying temporal and spatial distribution of emission in combination with the apportionment of different pathways a strong indicator for the evaluation of effective measures to reduce emission can be determined. Keywords: Nutrient emissions, monthly, Odra References: [1] Behrendt, H., Opitz, D., Kolanek, A., Korol, R., Stronska, M. (2008): Changes of nutrient loads in the Odra River during the last century – their causes and consequences. Journal of Water and Land Development. No.12, 127‐144 [2] Behrendt, H. and Dannowski, R. (2005): Nutrients and heavy metals in the Odra River system, Weißensee Verlag, Berlin, 353 pp. 57 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania The impact of submarine ground water discharge (SGD) on a coastal ecosystem of the southern Baltic Sea: Results from the AMBER project Susann Vogler 1, B. Szymczycha 2 , T. Gentz 3, O. Dellwig 1, L. Kotwicki 2, R. Endler 1, M. Schlüter 3 & M. E. Böttcher1 1 Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Marine Geology, Rostock, Germany 2 Institute of Oceanology of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Sopot, Poland 3 Alfred‐Wegener Institute for Polar an Marine Research, Marine Geochemistry, Bremerhaven, Germany The impact of near‐shore submarine ground water discharge (SGD) on coastal ecosystems of the southern Baltic Sea is investigated as part of the AMBER project within the BONUS+ initiative. Besides direct surface water input of dissolved and particulate compounds (e.g., nutrients, metals) via rivers into coastal seas, SGD is increasingly recognized to be an important factor. In spite of the recognition that many land‐sea interfaces of the world are characterised by SGD, it is still unclear how important SGD via springs, seeps, or diffusive outflows is in terms of biogeochemical budgets for the Baltic Sea coastal regions. The main reason that this has not been caught up so far to a precision that is typical for other freshwater inputs is that direct discharge of groundwater into the coastal zone is often difficult to quantify. The influence of SGD is expected to be of particular socio‐economic relevance as it influences eutrophication in near‐coastal ecosystems and to be under pressure by anthropogenic activity and climate change. In this sub‐project of the AMBER project, the quantitative importance of SGD on nutrient and trace metal budgets is investigated for parts of the Baltic Sea. Results will have implications to understand the role of SGD as a nutrient source and will provide data for further implementation into model environments for the prediction of scenarios of future environmental changes. Besides trace metals, nutrients and metabolites, a further focus forms the impact of SGD on biota. Stable isotopes (C‐13, S‐34, O‐18) are used to identify sources, sinks, and abiotic and microbial transformations of dissolved and particulate compounds. Salinity and temperature profiles as well as Ra and Rn isotopes will help to identify SGD into the water column. Sediment structures potentially acting as aquifers leading to SGD are characterized by geochemical, sedimentological, and geophysical methods. During three sampling campaigns in 2009, seep‐type SGD was investigated in the Puck Bay off the Polish coast. The vertical areal efflux rates and geochemical compositions of ground waters and their mixing proportions with bottom waters were estimated by the application of seepage meters and measurements of a number of different biogeochemical parameters (e.g.,salinity, redox‐sensitive trace metals, nutrients, sulfate, metabolites, REE, methane, Rn isotopes) were carried out. It was found that the ground waters were anoxic at the time of sampling and sources for a number of elements in the water column including dissolved inorganic carbonate and phosphate. In the next year, measurements will be continued on a seasonal base to extend the data base on seasonal changes of SGD in comparison to the impact of fresh surface water inflow. In addition, it is planned to use hydrological and meteorological data to make a water balance of the investigated area as an independent comparison to the results obtained by geochemical and isotope mixing calculations. 58 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Impact of groundwater discharge on fauna Lech Kotwicki1, Dellwig O.2, Grzelak K.1, Szymczycha B. 1, Vogler S. 2 1 Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences Powstancow Warszawy 55, Sopot, Poland Leibniz‐Institut für Ostseeforschung, Seestraße 15, Rostock‐Warnemünde, Germany 2 Discharge of groundwater into the sea is widespread. Overlooking it may lead to serious misinterpretations of ecological data in studies of coastal pollution, of benthic zonation and productivity, and of the flux of dissolved substances within and between bottom sediments and overlying water. Freshwater discharges change salinity, temperature and nutrient regimes and degrade nearshore environments. However, the effects of this kind of disturbance on shallow sandy fauna have been little studied. This work reports the spatial effects of a groundwater discharge on the abundance and structure of the meio‐ and macrofauna in the shallow area of the Puck Bay (Baltic Sea). The total value of calculated direct inflow of groundwater to the Baltic Sea along a Polish coast equals around 398 000 m3/d, and this discharge is composed of many different chemical compounds. Data are presented indicating that submarine groundwater discharge delivers, among others, several times as much nitrate. Because contaminated groundwater is often hidden, its impact on surrounding biota has not been adequately considered. Quantifying and qualifying analysis show clear effect of groundwater on both meio‐ and macrofauna assemblages in research area. In discharging area decreasing of abundance and number of fauna taxa in summer season and opposing pattern in winter time was observed. Groundwater discharges could significantly influence the distribution, abundance and life‐history traits of the biota of shallow waters, and further study should include this phenomena as important factors affecting spatial and temporal trends. 59 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania BAZOOCA ‐ Baltic Zooplankton Cascades Kajsa Tönnesson2 and Peter Tiselius1 1 Department of Marine Ecology ‐ Kristineberg, University of Gothenburg, Sweden Department of Marine Ecology ‐ Göteborg, University of Gothenburg, Sweden 2 The recent introduction of the alien ctenophore Mnemiopsis sp. into the Baltic is alarming and may exacerbate existing perturbations such as eutrophication, over fishing, climate change and invasive species. We aim to test the overall hypothesis that effects of Mnemiopsis will cascade in the pelagic food web in the Baltic. By use of models, experiments and field studies we will quantify ecosystem consequences of Mnemiopsis in the pelagic food web, from microbes to gelatinous top predators. Focal topics include predation on cod eggs and larvae, changes in water clarity leading to regime shifts from fish to jellyfish and couplings between plankton and microbes. Interactions and cascading effects will be quantified within natural spatial and environmental gradients. We will monitor Mnemiopsis synchronically with environmental and biological parameters relevant for other trophic levels. In this poster presentation we will give you an overview over the activities performed in 2009. We will show you data from eight monitoring cruises and the two week long process cruise in October. Information about three workshops performed this year will be given. We will show data from the successful experimental workshop at Bornholm in May where we were working with Mnemiopsis, cod eggs and larvae. The food web workshop in Kalmar will also be discussed. In addition, the distribution of the other ctenophore Mertensia sp. in the Baltic will be shown. 60 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Climate‐related long‐term trends and spatial variability in the zooplankton community of the Central Baltic Sea Rabea Diekmann1, Saskia Otto1, Georgs Kornilovs2, Lutz Postel3 and Christian Möllmann1 1 Institute for Hydrobiology and Fishery Science, University of Hamburg, Grosse Elbstrasse 133, D‐22767 Hamburg, Germany, E‐mail: rabea.diekmann@uni‐hamburg.de, Phone: +49 40 42838 6696 2 Latvian Fish Resources Agency, Daugavgrivas str. 8, LV‐1048, Riga, Latvia 3 Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Seestrasse 15, D‐18119 Rostock, Germany In recent decades the Central Baltic Sea underwent drastic climate‐ and fisheries‐related changes in pelagic ecosystem structure and functioning. Specifically an ecosystem regime shift affecting all trophic levels was observed during a period from the end of the 1980s to early 1990s, which was characterised by extreme hydrographic conditions and a relatively high fishing pressure. Zooplankton is the major link between upper and lower trophic levels and thus represents the key component in ecosystem re‐organisation. Zooplankton species usually display fast reaction on changes in their physical environment, being thus a reliable indicator of climate effects on marine ecosystems. Here we present first results of a re‐analysis of zooplankton long‐term dynamics using a >45‐year seasonal time‐series of the major copepod and cladoceran species. We used Chord‐distance‐based Principal Component Analyses (PCA) to extract the main trends in the zooplankton community and related these to climate‐induced changes in the physical environment. We further used different discontinuity analyses (e.g. Chronological Clustering, STARS) to test for regime‐like changes in zooplankton abundance and community composition. Our time‐series analyses were performed spatially explicit, i.e. separately for the Bornholm Basin, the Gdansk Deep and the Gotland Basin, which eventually allowed us to test for synchronicity or differences in the observed zooplankton trends between these major deep basins of the Central Baltic Sea. 61 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania The large scale spatial distribution of plankton communities in a transitional coastal lagoon Evelina Grinienė, Gasiūnaitė Z., Pilkaitytė R., Šulčius S. Coastal Research and Planning Institute, Klaipeda University, H. Manto 84, LT‐92294, Klaipeda, Lithuania Lagoons and estuaries are extremely dynamic environments, characterised by both highly variable physical processes and hydrochemical conditions. The interplay of strong gradients in river flow, mixing, nutrient inputs, salinity and temperature produces spatially and temporally heterogeneous conditions for plankton communities. The aim of this study was to describe the patterns of plankton spatial heterogeneity and evaluate impact of environmental factors on plankton communities spatial variability along river‐lagoon gradient in the Curonian lagoon. The samples of plankton including ciliates, phytoplankton, metazooplankton and bacteria were collected at 19 stations during cruise on July 29‐30, 2007. The physico‐chemical parameters: Secchi depth, pH, temperature, salinity, current velocity and dissolved oxygen were also measured in each station. The dominance of small bacterivorous ciliate species: Strombidium sp., Srobilidium velox in Nemunas River mouth was shifted towards the large herbivorous tintinid species Codonella cratera, Tintinnidium pusillum and Tintinnopsis tubulosa in the lagoon. The metazooplankton community structure was quite uniform along the river‐lagoon gradient, dominated by cyclopoid species, slightly lower densities of cladocerans was found in the river mouth than in lagoon stations. The multivariate redundancy analysis (RDA) was applied to evaluate the relationship between environmental factors and plankton communities’ structure. 62 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania The role of abiotic factors in the distribution of macrophytes in the shallow eutrophic SE Baltic Sea lagoon Renata Pilkaityte1, Arturas Razinkovas1, Raimonda Kybranciene1, Audrone Zonyte2 1 Coastal Research and Planning Institute, Klaipeda University 2 Ecology Department, Klaipeda University The macrophytes differently than phytoplankton could show the common long term changes in water ecosystem responding both to the climatic and antropogenic forcing. Curonian lagoon is the shallow eutrophied lagoon in the SE Baltic Sea, with the mean depth of 3.8 m. However, the macrophytes are known to grow only down to 1.1 m depth. The reason for this is high eutrophication: high biomass of phytoplankton followed by the resuspension of fine organic material limit the distribution of the submerged macrophytes in deeper places. From the other hand the northern part of the lagoon is characterized as transitional zone: Nemunas river outflow dominates the central part of the lagoon, while in the northern part the intrusions from Baltic Sea are common especially in summer and autumn. The dominant macrophytes species are Phragmites australis, Schoenoplectus lacustris, Sch. tabernaemontani, Potamogeton perfoliatus, P. pectinatus and Myriophyllum spicatum. In this work the changes in the distribution of macrophytes after decade were reevaluated, as well, as the factors, such as salinity, shear stress and water level fluctuations, influencing distribution of submerged macrophytes are discussed. 63 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Spatiotemporal modeling of the common reed on the Finnish coast Ari Jolma, Anas Altartouri, Xiaojie Chen, Päivi Korpinen The common reed has overtaken the Finnish coast of the Gulf of Finland in many places causing changes in the coastal ecology and lessening the recreational value of the coast. In the IBAM project we study the ecology of the reed using literature and networking with reed ecologists, study methods for mapping the reed, collect and analyze data about the existence of reed, and, finally, develop a spatio‐temporal model for reed. We have studied possibilities for mapping the reed using LiDAR data. Using commonly available geospatial datasets we have carried out an investigation of the factors associated with reed presence and absence. The data that has been used includes a digital elevation model, reed classification based on satellite data (whole coast) and aerial photographs (selected sites), and shoreline openness. Several methods for explaining reed presence and absence have been tested. The selected model type is cellular automata, but we are still testing and searching for the best way to describe the state change rules. Initial results from the studies will be show, described and discussed. The first version of the cellular automata model and its software implementation will be described and discussed. 64 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Recovery of bottom communities after recent hypoxic events in the eastern Gulf of Finland Alexey A. Maximov, Sergey M. Golubkov, Vasiliy A. Petukhov Zoological institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia In the last decade the periodic benthic hypoxia resulting in disappearance of bottom animals is rather usual phenomenon in the deep‐water areas of the eastern Gulf of Finland. In the periods of improvement of oxygen condition bottom communities restore. The recent hypoxic events in 2003 and 2006 resulted in mass mortality of benthic organisms and formation of extensive life‐less areas. The data of 2008—2009 survey demonstrated the active recovery processes in bottom communities. The present level of macrozoobenthos abundance and biomass approached the maximum values which observed in middle 1980s and early 2000s. However despite of complete restoration of zoobenthos quantitative development, structure of the new bottom communities formed in previously azoic areas radically changed. The annelid species showed the greater increase in biomass and abundance than other components of benthos. The abundant populations of glacial relict amphipods Monoporeia affinis and Pontoporeia femorata (early typical for the open deep areas of the eastern Gulf of Finland) were not restored and were replaced by opportunistic species of annelid worms mainly presented by alien species recently introduced to the Gulf. Polychaete Marenzelleria spp. demonstrated especially dramatic increase in abundance and biomass. In 2009 polychaetes colonized vast bottom areas and occupied the most part of Gulf, where it become the dominant component of macrozoobenthos. Now it is the most spread and abundant macrobenthic species in the eastern Gulf of Finland. At some sites all macrofauna consisted practically of monoculture of Marenzelleria spp. It is very difficult to predict consequences of so large‐scale invasion. However undoubtedly it has great potential to alter ecosystem‐level properties and processes in the Gulf of Finland because of high burrowing activity and competitive ability of this species. The study was financially supported by grant 08‐04‐92421‐BONUS_a from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. 65 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Towards a diatom‐based transfer function for the Baltic Sea: I. Analysis of sediment‐surface diatom assemblages. Andrzej Witkowski and S. Dobosz Paleoceanology Unit, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 18, Szczecin, Poland The study was aimed at determining species composition of diatom assemblages in bottom sediments collected along the salinity gradient within the Baltic Sea. The uppermost layer was sampled from the sediment collected with a multicorer during several cruises covering a transect from northern Kattegat to Bothnian Bay. Three samples were obtained at each station. Permanent slides were prepared for the analysis of diatom species composition. Diatom identification was based principally on light microscopy (LM) examination aided, whenever necessary, by electron microscopy (EM). In each slide, abundance of the diatom species was determined. So far, about 150 species have been identified in the samples. Autecological characteristics (salinity, trophic status, and temperature requirements) were determined. Description of the sediment‐surface diatom assemblages will be followed by analysis of fossil assemblages sampled from long cores retrieved from the Baltic Sea basins. The diatomological analysis of the surficial and deeper sediment layers should aid in the development of a diatom‐based transfer function which will be used in quantification of salinity changes occurring during the marine stages in the Holocene evolution of the Baltic Sea. 66 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Preliminary note on dinoflagellate cysts from the Bornholm Basin in the Baltic Sea Niels E. Poulsen GEUS Initial investigations on subrecent–recent seabottom surface samples from the Bornholm Basin in the Baltic Sea east of Bornholm, revealed small amounts of dinoflagellate cysts. Bitectatodinium tepikiense is the dominant species. The assemblages also showed a few specimens of Ataxodinium choane, Impagidinium spp., Lingulodinium machaerophorum, Operculodinium centrocarpum s.l., Spiniferites spp., Echinidinium? Aculeatum, Islandinium minutum, Pentapharsodinium dalei, Scripsiella spp. A few dark brown cysts of Brigantedinium spp. were also recorded. The samples were prepared without use of HF and a large number of Diatooms and Pediastrum spp, were also recorded. 67 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in Baltic populations of mussels Mytilus Małgorzata Zbawicka, Tomasz Sańko, Roman Wenne Department of Genetics and Marine Biotechnology, Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Powstańców Warszawy 55, 81‐712 Sopot, Poland European population of Mytilus spp. are represented by three major species: M. galloprovincialis, M. edulis, M. trossulus. In marine ecosystems Mytilus species are inseparable and very important part of the water biotope. Mytilus genus in Baltic Sea is an heteroplasmic hybrid (M. edulis x M. trossulus). The characterisation of Mytilus spp. in Baltic Sea and usually used molecular markers often are showing many disparities. To create new, more reliable markers for Mytilus species and their hybrids discrimination we decided to create complete DNA library. About 2300 Expressed Sequence Tags (EST’s) from gamets of Baltic Mytilus spp have been sequenced and processed. A new received cDNA library and others, mainly Mytilus galloprovincialis EST’s availabled in GenBank were used to SNPs discovery. From 1000 candidate SNP, 100 were chosen to SNP genotyping the baltic populations. To SNP genotyping the iPLEXTM Assay will be used. 26 samples of mussels Mytilus, of approximately 30 individuals each, were collected along the Baltic Sea coasts (from the Danish Strait to the Bothnian Bay on the north). 68 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Multi‐endpoint studies on Zoarces viviparus, using gene expression oligonucleotide microarray Noomi Asker1,2, Erik Kristiansson1,2, D.G. Joakim Larsson2 and Lars Förlin1 1 Department of Zoology, University of Gothenburg, Box 463, SE‐405 30, Göteborg, Sweden 2 Department of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Box 434, SE‐405 30 Göteborg, Sweden The eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) inhabits the coastal waters of Northern Europe and has been part of the environmental monitoring of the Swedish coast areas for several years. Despite the interest in eelpout as a monitoring species, hardly any genes have been sequenced, hampering the use of e.g. large scale gene expression profiling in the search for new biomarkers and understanding the molecular mechanism behind physiological changes. We have therefore sequenced the liver transcriptome of the eelpout using massively parallel pyrosequencing, resulting in over 50000 potential transcripts. These transcripts include several categories of genes that are of particular interest for ecotoxicological research, including 45 different cytochrome P450 variants. Also heat shock proteins (e.g. HPS 70, HSP 90 alpha and beta) and genes related to oxidative stress (e.g. superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase) were present, as well as several known biomarkers, such as vitellogenin, the zona pellucida proteins and metallothionein. The sequence data was used to design 50‐mer probes for the construction of 15k microarrays using the Geniom platform (febit, Germany), a flexible automated in‐situ synthesized oligonucleotide microarray instrument. Here we present the first large scale gene analysis performed on eelpout. As the eelpout lives relatively stationary we can link the microarray data and observed physiological responses to the environmental situation where the fish was caught. Furthermore, the viviparity of the eelpout gives the unique opportunity to associate the effects of pollutants to individual reproductive performance, including the development of embryos and fry. 69 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Eelpout – a fish indicator of biological effects in Danish coastal waters Jakob Strand, Ingela Dahllöf and Zhanna Tairova Aarhus University, National Environmental Research Institute, Roskilde, Denmark, E‐mail: [email protected] Eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) is an unique Baltic fish, because it is viviparous i.e. it bears brood and give birth to up to 250 fully developed living larvae. Consequently, reproductive impairment of eelpout including abnormal embryo development can easily be assessed and has for some years been included as a bioindicator in the national environmental monitoring programme in Denmark. The presence of abnormal development of embryos and larvae is used as an indicator of impaired fish reproduction due to environmental stressors like various contaminants that have the potential to induce adverse developmental effects in fish. In some more polluted areas, malformed larvae can occur in more that 80% of the broods. In addition, eelpout can be used as a bioindicator for assessing contaminant levels and also for assessing other types of biological effects including those from endocrine disruptions. For instance, evidence for a widespread occurrence of endocrine disturbances in eelpouts has been found in Danish coastal waters, where more than 25% of the males have developed intersex, i.e. a primary oocyte development, in the testes. Exposure to dioxins, mercury and PAHs in eelpout has also been assessed in Danish coastal waters. The BALCOFISH project will further explore and establish the use of eelpout as a coastal indicator organism for assessing acceptable impacts of pollutants in neighbouring countries in the Baltic Sea. In this project we will go in to depth on the importance of the environmental stressors like contaminants and rising sea water temperatures and the relationships to gene responses and also link them to early warning biomarkers, reproduction, larvae development, population genetics and dynamics. This includes also workshops and harmonisation of guidelines, a project database, establishment of environmental reference conditions and development of criteria for assessing if elevated effect levels occur on fish in the coastal Baltic Sea environments. 70 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Integrated assessment of TBT pollution in the Baltic Sea – integrating environmental quality criteria for chemical and biological effects measurements Jakob Strand, Marc Bassompierre, Doris Schiedek, Lars M. Storm & Martin M. Larsen Aarhus University, National Environmental Research Institute, Roskilde, Denmark, E‐mail: [email protected] There is an increasing need for operational tools allowing assessments of the environmental status, and the risks posed by contaminants found in the Baltic Sea today in an integrated mode, i.e. combining chemistry and biology in a spatial and temporal manner. In the past years, the marine monitoring of contaminants has been focussed on contaminant levels in sediment and biota rather than in sea water, since it has been most suitable for spatial and temporal assessments. Using tributyltin (TBT) as a model substance, we apply assessment criteria (AC), which are derived and extrapolated to reflect quality standards for TBT in sea water. Moreover, the AC have been expanded to include TBT levels in sediment and molluscs. In addition, we also integrate the OSPAR assessment criteria for TBT‐specific biomarkers (imposex/intersex) in five species of marine snails. In frame of the BEAST project, the combined assessment criteria have been evaluated with GIS‐based analysis. TBT data from national and regional monitoring programmes, screening and research studies have been used for the assessment. The GIS analysis was performed using DIVA (Data‐Interpolating Variational Analysis) a software implementation of the Variational Inverse Method realized as part of the Sea Data Net EU project. This study supports that the TBT levels are relatively high and is still of significant environmental concern in the Baltic Sea environment, although declining TBT levels have occurred in the recent years due to the final EU and IMO ban on the use of TBT as antifouling agent on also the larger commercial ship traffic. 71 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Effects of environmental contamination on immune functions of the blue mussel Mytilus spp. considering abiotic variations in brackish water systems of the Baltic Sea Nicole Höher, Katja Broeg, Angela Köhler Alfred‐Wegener‐Insitute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany The Baltic Sea is quite unique in a number of ways; one interesting attribute is the generally low salinity, as well as the gradient from southwest to northeast. Aquatic organisms living in the Baltic Sea have adapted to this special environment. However osmoregulation is energetically costly, which has been shown to affect stress susceptibility in Mytilus edulis in the Baltic Sea, assessed by scope for growth and biochemical stress markers (Prevodnik et al., 2007). Furthermore, human activities increase the stress on marine organisms (due to pollution), which has been suggested to correlate with disease vulnerability in aquatic organisms, e.g. due to a weakened immune system (Pipe et al., 1999). However, the synergistic effects of salinity and pollution have not been demonstrated on the immune system. Responses in the immune system have been found to provide sensitive and comprehensive measures for the health status of an organism (Galloway and Goven, 2005). Invertebrates rely mainly on innate (no memory) immune defences, which are implemented through haemocytes and soluble haemolymph factors (Canesi et al., 2006). This present study, which is conducted within the frame of the BONUS+ Project BEAST (Biological Effects of Anthropogenic Stress), aims to assess the suitability of immunological biomarkers in integrated monitoring schemes for the Baltic Sea. The following hypotheses will be investigated: Low salinity in the Baltic Sea influences the performance of the immune system, thus anthropogenic compounds have greater impact on immune functions and disease susceptibility. Haemocytes from Mytilus edulis, collected at various salinities in the Baltic Sea, will be tested on their immune functions, which include chemotaxis, respiratory burst (ROS generation), phagocytosis, as well as release of antimicrobial and lytic agents. Those measurements are accompanied by chemical analysis of the individual mussels as well as water analysis. Bacterial challenge (Vibrio) will be performed to assess disease susceptibility with regard to salinity. Additonally, mussels will be exposed to copper and microplastics in laboratory experiments and the aforementioned immune functions will be assessed. Copper is a known immunosuppressant (Pipe et al., 1999), which – after the ban of TBT – is increasingly used in antifouling paint again. Microplastics are of concern in coastal areas due to their great abundance (Thompson et al., 2009) and possess a threat to the aquatic organisms, since they cannot be metabolised. References: Canesi et al. (2006) Invertebrate Survival Journal, 3: 40‐49 Galloway, T. S. & Goven, A. J. (2005) In: Immunotoxicology and Immunopharmacology. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL,: 365–380 Pipe et al. (1999) Aquatic Toxicology, 46: 43 – 54 Prevodnik et al. (2007) Aquatic Toxicology, 82: 63 – 71 Thompson et al. (2009) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 364: 2153‐2166 72 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Laboratory exposure experiment with Mytilus edulis from the western Gulf of Finland– effects of varied salinity on biomarkers with added PAH exposure Anna Weckman, Kari K. Lehtonen Finnish Environment Institute, Marine Research Centre, PO BOX 140, FI‐00251 Helsinki, Finland The pollutants are invariably present in the sea ecosystems as mixtures that may amplify the toxicity observed for individual compounds. There are also several factors possibly contributing to biomarker levels such as temperature, salinity, and reproductive state. Above that these factors are possibly affecting on the sensitization to the ambient toxic substances. Especially in brackish estuarine areas that the whole Baltic Sea can be considered, salinity is an important factor that has gained little attention in biomarker studies so far. The present study investigates the effects of salinity change on Mytilus edulis, combined with exposure to a mixture of three PAH compounds at stable concentrations but with differing salinity conditions. The aims of this study are to distinguish whether there are effects of salinity changes on biomarker response and the mixing effect of salinity changes for PAH responses. The ten‐day laboratory experiment’s first aim was to find out the effect of salinity change on blue mussel biomarker responses directly after the change and during ten days adaption period. Second aim was to determine the effect of salinity change combined with PAH exposure. Mytilus edulis specimens were collected by scuba diving from an unpolluted site in the western Gulf of Finland and exposed to 3, 4.5, 8, and 12 ppt salinities (sampling site salinity 5.8, also included in the experimental setup) in laboratory conditions with controlled feeding, temperature, and light period adjusted to reflect the conditions at the sampling site. Each 11 aquariums had 65 individuals. The samplings of Mussels were scheduled. Total amount of sampled mussels for biomarker analyses was 507 individuals. The PAHs fluoranthene, pyrene and benzo[a]pyrene were diluted into water with acetone solvent (8mg/mL) each with 4 µg/L concentration. The multi‐biomarker approach is used to determine effects. Biomarkers measured for detection of oxidative stress are GST, CAT, LPO, and GR. AChE is used for neurotoxicity, and LMS and Micronucleus are used as physiological biomarkers to observe alterations in blue mussel tissues. 73 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Ecosystem state assessment of different sub‐regions of the Baltic Sea based on cardiac activity biomarkers of bivalves Sergey Kholodkevich, Tatiana Kuznetsova, Anton Kurakin, Eugeny Kornienko, Vasiliy Lyubimtsev, Alexey Ivanov St.‐Petersburg Research Center for Ecological Safety of the RAS, E‐mail: [email protected] The Baltic Sea is often seen as a highly sensitive and vulnerable environment; therefore, the national programmes are directed on the development of integrated assessment of biological effects of the contaminants on ecosystems of different sub‐regions of the Baltic Sea. BONUS‐169/BEAST project focus on the development of holistic multidisciplinary approach in ecological state assessment. Nowadays the great attention is paid to the development of biomarker approach, which gives principal opportunity to measure key species functional state for ecosystems’ health assessment. The key species of the Baltic Sea ecosystems – Macoma balthica and Mytilus edulis were chosen as test‐ organisms due to their important role in biocenosis, wide spread in the Baltic Sea ecosystems, high level of filtration activity and their external skeleton. The latter makes it possible to attach small sensors on their valves to register their cardiac activities (CA) by non‐invasive way. For the last decade in SRCES RAS laser fiber‐optic system and express‐method for registration and analysis of integral characteristics of benthic invertebrates’ functional state ‐ characteristics of their CA were developed. In the study characteristics of bivalves CA: heart rate and stress‐index, were used as biomarkers for sea region contamination assessment. Ecosystem health assessment includes the measurement of it’s individuals health. In turn, health of the organism is considered to be the level of their adaptive capacities. In the study the latter we tested with the use of active bioindication method based on organism response to one/few standard stimuli (salinity and/or temperature changes, etc.), used as functional loading, and by measuring the dynamics of CA characteristics during such loading. It is considered that in contaminated zones the level of test‐organism functional reserves (adaptive capacities) would be lower than in pure zones. At the first stage of the project participants from SRCES RAS took part in the expedition of the Finnish oceanographic r/v Aranda carried out in the GOF in August‐September 2009. The studies were carried out in soft‐bottom clam (Macoma balthica) at stations in some different zones in Finnish and Estonian waters of the GOF. Besides this, the characteristics of mussels (Mytilus spp.) deployed earlier in cages (about 3 weeks) in a suspected contaminated zone close to the city of Kotka were studied also. The first results obtained showed variability in cardiac activity responses in clam (Macoma balthica) taken from different sites to standard test‐stimuli (salinity and/or temperature changes). The same data were revealed in experiments with Mytilus spp. The obtained data on cardiac activity characteristics will increase effectiveness and reliability of organism functional state assessment under changes of the environment. Thus, from our point of view, investigations including physiological biomarkers (e.g. CA) are perspective for ecosystems’ health assessment based on study of key species adaptive capacities of different sub‐regions of the Baltic Sea. The work was supported by RFBR grant № 08‐04‐92424‐BONUS_а. 74 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Experience of bioassay with the amphipod Gmelinoides fasciatus to assess sediment quality in the Gulf of Finland: the approach and first results Nadezda Berezina and Sergey Golubkov E‐mail: [email protected] Bioassays are among other things required for the characterization of the toxic potential of natural sediments. The test species should be appropriately sensitive and representative and applicable for acute and chronic toxicity tests. Amphipods are sensitive indicators for sediment pollution because they are among first species to disappear from benthic marine communities in contaminated areas. In this work we performed testing of acute and chronic toxicity of sediments from the Gulf of Finland (17 sites) to the amphipod crustacean Gmelinoides fasciatus which is wide‐spread and abundant benthic species in the easternmost part of the Baltic Sea. The sediment samples (0‐3 cm upper layer) were collected by GEMAX Dual Corer at 17 sites (18‐60 m of depths) in the Gulf of Finland during r/v Aranda cruise (24.08‐ 04.09.2009). The survival rate of test‐organisms (total and separately for males and females) for two weeks as a main parameter and, additionally, burrowing activity and ability of mature females to reproduce were determined in the acute toxicity test. The chronic toxicity test was conducted with sediments that in previous acute toxicity testing resulted in above 50% survival of animals. In these experiments the biological endpoints include survival, growth and reproductive characteristics (e.g. sex ratio, inter‐sexuality, abnormalities in eggs/embryos development at different stages of embryogenesis, numbers of offspring produced). The significant differences in survival and reproductive characteristics of G. fasciatus were found between sites, above 50% of them were assessed as highly contaminated areas. Growth and reproduction were highly inhibited in the sites that were tested as most contaminated. We observed difference in mortality males and females in the all variants of experiments: males occurred more sensitive to contamination than females. The low survival rates of G. fasciatus males (0‐30% of control) may result in decrease of sex ratio and unsuccessful reproduction that also testify about very poor quality of tested sediments (sites). Next step of our research is examination for relationships between the bioassays responses and the physical and chemical parameters of sediments at study sites in order to discriminate ability of the test to detect type and level of contamination. The results suggest that bioassay with the amphipod G. fasciatus using survival and reproductive characteristics as the endpoints is a responsive and suitable tool that can be used as bioindicator of sediment quality in the Gulf of Finland and other part of Baltic Sea. This study was supported by BONUS+ (project BEAST, RFBR # 08‐04‐92423‐BONUS_а). 75 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania A brown algae Fucus vesiculosus as potential biomarker of the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea (BEAST project) Elmira Boikova, Zane Deķere, Irina Kuļikova, Zinta Seisuma, Uldis Botva Laboratory of Marine Ecology, Institute of Biology, University of Latvia, Salaspils, Miera 3, LV 2169, Latvia Fucus vesiculosus as a key species of the Baltic Sea littoral communities has been stressed by anthropogenic impact. The biodiversity of seaweeds communities and estimated heavy metal concentrations in brown algae in the Gulf of Riga between 1999 and 2009 illustrate the sub‐regional coastal ecosystem response to integrated environmental pollution. At two survey sites with different pollution effects (west coast and east coast with relatively higher pollution impact) brown algae in average have biomass 212,0 and 90,0 g dry wt/m2 accordingly. The longterm results of estimated heavy metals (Hg, Cd) concentrations in Fucus vesiculosus illustrates that average Hg concentration at the west coast is 0,011 mg/kg dry wt and 0,02 mg/kg dry wt at the east coast, but Cd – 1,68 and 1,28 mg/kg dry wt respectively. To fulfil the aims of BEAST Project and to facilitate development of biological effects monitoring Fucus vesiculosus response to oxidative stress in combination with contaminant measures in different sub‐regions in 2009 have been started. First results concerning brown algae biomass in the Gulf of Riga (4 survey sites) and the Gulf of Finland (2 survey sites) showed their maximum at Tvaerminne site ( 186,0 g dry wt/m2 ), but minimum at the Gulf of Riga east coast ( 48,0 g dry wt/m2).Also first data of heavy metal levels in brown algae from different sites illustrate minimum concentration of Cd and Ni at Tvaerminne site (0,60 and 3,70 mg/kg dry wt) in comparison with the average values of the Gulf of Riga. All sites differed also by salinity values and diversity of other seaweed species. Functional relationships between different integrative pollution stress and brown algae response by application oxidative stress biomarkers will be created. 76 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Phytoplankton biomass versus chlorophyll a: do they show the same water quality? Diana Vaičiūtė1, Irina Olenina2, Rima Kavolytė2 and Renata Pilkaitytė1 1 Coastal Research and Planning Institute, Klaipėda University, Klaipėda, Lithuania, [email protected] 2 Center of Marine Research, Klaipėda, Lithuania The national water quality monitoring in the Lithuanian Baltic Sea waters has started fifty years ago. Recently, four seasonal surveys are performed annually in the four water bodies classified according to water quality bioindicators phytoplankton composition, biomass and chlorophyll a, concentration of nutrients, salinity range, types of bottom sediments and wave exposure: 1) sandy and 2) stony coastal waters: above 20 m depth; 3) plume of the Curonian Lagoon in the coastal waters: an nutrient enriched area with the annual average salinity below 5 psu;. 4) open Baltic Sea: below 20 m depth. However, relationship between phytoplankton biomass and concentration of chlorophyll a has been poorly studied in the local scale of the Baltic Sea. In case of Lithuanian national coastal monitoring some differences were found in the results of assessment of ecological status using both indicators. Therefore it is important to evaluate the correlation between phytoplankton biomass and concentration of chlorophyll a, and to determine the factors that could influence the patterns of relationships among them. The analysis was based on the data of the national Lithuanian monitoring in the Baltic Sea during 2001‐ 2007. Detailed analysis of interactions between chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biomass were performed according to sampling site (transitional and coastal waters), time (seasonal and diurnal) and different algae groups (cyanobacteria, diatoms and dinoflagellates). Additionally three methods of investigation of microalgae productivity were compared: standard spectrophotometry and fluorimetry for chlorophyll a, and determination of phytoplankton biomass by the Utermöhl inverted microscope method. Satellite‐ derived optical information maybe also applicable in the future for the classification of pelagic ecosystems and typology of water masses since it is expensive and time consuming using classical water sampling by ships. Analysis of calibration between composition of phytoplankton populations and simultaneously satellite‐derived pictures should take the first steps. The relationship between composition of phytoplankton and proxy such as concentration of chlorophyll should be also tested in order to automate the monitoring of the water quality which is very variable in time. 77 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Assessment of the ecosystem health of the eastern Gulf of Finland by means of histopathology of zooplankton species Sergey Golubkov1 and Andrey Makrushin2 1 Zoological Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia I.D. Papanin Institute for Biology of Inland Waters of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia 2 Hazardous materials are one of the main environmental problems in the eastern Gulf of Finland due to a well developed industry in St. Petersburg (Russia), which is the largest city in the Baltic Region. To assess their integrated effect upon biota histopathology of four common species of zooplankton was investigated. Sampling and observations were made at the 10 pelagic stations in Neva Bay and at the top of the Gulf of Finland. High percentage of the individuals with morphological abnormalities was found for the Limnosida frontosa. The common abnormality was an exfoliation of bilayer wall of the brood pouch that should negatively affect the reproductive success of the species. Similar exfoliation the brood pouch was observed in the Leptodora kindti, but a percentage of the individuals with this abnormality was considerably lower than for the L. frontosa. The usual morphological abnormality in the Bythotrephes siderströmii and Cercopagis pengoi (but not in the L. kindti and L. frontosa) was the destruction of the epithelium in the mid gut, which probably negatively affects survival of the species.. Histopathology of the L. kindti and L. frontosa were more common at the stations near St. Petersburg, but were also found far from the city. Potentially all investigated morphological abnormalities may be suggested as biomarkers of the intensity of the contamination of the Gulf of Finland by hazardous materials. 78 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Interactions between ecosystem and human environment in Baltic coastal waters under Climate Change and the need for adaptation measures Oda Störmer, Matthias Mossbauer, Gerald Schernewski and Thomas Neumann Leibniz‐Institute for Baltic Sea Research, E‐mail: oda.stoermer@io‐warnemuende.de The need for action and adaptation strategies in the coastal regions of the Baltic Sea, especially for key regions like coastal lagoons, due to Climate Change is of great importance to the EU and Germany. This is currently shown by the great projects RADOST and BaltCICA. Related to their goals, the impact of Climate Change on all aspects of the aquatic system is investigated. A special focus lies on interactions within the ecosystem and between the ecosystem, socio‐economy and infrastructures for a main challenge in coastal lagoon management is the understanding of those interactions and their effects. The correlations will be shown in an interaction matrix and further concretized in the evaluation of model regions. For Climate Change will lead to various impacts on natural and social systems, all kinds of regional relevant problems have to be filtered out. A main problem can be seen in changes in water quality. Consequences like an increased jelly fish occurrence, toxic algal blooms, beach wrack and hygienically relevant factors like pathogens will cause multifactorial problems in the actual use pattern in coastal lagoon regions. For example, problems appear in case of toxic algal blooms via human health problems (e. g. skin contact), poisoning and mortality of marine organisms, ecosystem damage (e. g. oxygen depletion) and economic losses (e. g. preventing fish farming). For the effective solution of those multifactorial problems, an interdisciplinary approach and the involvement of all related actors are necessary. Depending on the regional requirements this will affect local tourism, fisheries, aquacultures, coastal protection structures, harbour economy and sea traffic. The poster will give an overview about all affected marine uses and the interactions between ecosystem, socio‐economy and infrastructures. It will furthermore focus on relevant problems and show how socio‐ economic and ecological features have to be translated into regionalized adaptation strategies and action plans for an effective solution. 79 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Consensus building as an element of science‐policy co‐production Robert Aps1, Kuikka, S.2, Liiv, I.3, Fetissov, M.1 1 University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute, Estonia 2 University of Helsinki, Finland 3 Tallinn Technical University, Estonia A boundary organization is an increasingly common phoneme. This paper is focusing on the Baltic Sea Regional Advisory Council (BS RAC) as a boundary organization that mediates between the institutions of science and of politics and contributes to the maintenance of a productive tension between science and politics. The boundary work of the BS RAC in balancing of stakeholder’s interests in transformation of science‐based advice into agreed management recommendations is considered to be an important element in the Baltic fisheries management. BS RAC is serving as a platform for fishing industry and the non‐ governmental organizations to negotiate the recommendations to the European Commission on fisheries issues under the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). Scientific advice produced and delivered by International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) is used as a biological background for deliberations. BS RAC acts 1) as facilitator of dialogue between fishing industry, scientists and decision makers to encourage research agendas that reflect the interests and needs of fishery industry, 2) as translator of scientific information into fishery‐specific practical language, and 3) as facilitator of communication among scientists, fishing industry, non‐governmental organizations, and political officials, engaged in formal and informal efforts to clarify both technical requirements and value choices, and helping negotiate compromise settlements among stakeholders. IBAM project is developing the web‐based decision support system (DSS) for efficient participatory process of consensus building. Boundary work of the BS RAC is very dynamic; therefore any DSS should work as a cognitive amplifier rather than a rigid procedure with fixed and final output. IBAM CONSENSUS DSS is allowing interactive reordering of individual priorities followed by immediate feedback from the system regarding how much a change in individual choices impacts the possible final decision. The system is allowing also interactive reordering of current consensus (ranking aggregation) to evaluate a) the minimal reordering of all individual priorities to reach the consensus, and b) the minimal reordering of priorities of defined stakeholder groups (e.g. coalitions) to reach the consensus. Production of BS RAC advice to the European Commission is involving extensive mixing of biological (fishery resources), socio‐economic and public elements in balancing the interests of fisheries’ associations, producer organizations, processors, market organizations, environmental NGOs, aquaculture producers, consumers, women’s networks and recreational and sports fishermen. Therefore, it is expected that IBAM CONSENSUS DSS would better facilitate the compromise settlements among stakeholders and would improve efficiency of the science‐policy co‐production process in general. 80 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Policy‐Making and Implementation in the Baltic Sea Protection in Russia Elena Belokurova, Maria Nozhenko, PROBALT project Center for European Studies, European University at St. Petersburg The poster presents the results of the first year research conducted in the framework of the PROBLAT projects. It reflects the main research question of the project connected with the understanding of decision‐making process that is between the scientific knowledge and policy instruments as well as arguments and political interpretations existing and potentially needed for their implementation. The first results of the Russian research team are connected with the general analysis of the policy instruments and interpretations on the national level as well as on the level of the related Subjects of Federation. For Russia, policy implementation towards Baltic Sea protection is connected with the gap between legislation and different kinds and levels of authorities responsible for its implementation. It concerns both different ministries on the national level (horizontal coordination) and between national, regional and local levels (vertical coordination). Secondly, difficulties with the involvement of non‐governmental actors like scientists, NGOs activists, journalists etc., which are traditional for Russia, also weaken policy implementation processes. The research of policy‐making and implementation was conducted also on the level of Subjects of Federation. For the Baltic Sea protection, three regions are of special interest, these situated on the Baltic Sea coast: St. Petersburg city, Leningrad and Kaliningrad oblasts. Among them, Kaliningrad oblast is the most problematic what concerns success of the measures eliminating euthrophication sources. In accordance with the HELCOM data, in Kaliningrad oblast 10 hot spots are situated, and only one of them (hot spot # 68) was eliminated by June 2009. In this respect, Kaliningrad oblast is very much inferior to St. Petersburg, where due to the reconstruction of the city water treatment plant by Vodokanal, 12 hot spots were removed from the HELCOM list by the middle of 2009. In total, in St. Petersburg there were 21 hot spots, what means that 9 more hot spots are still in St. Petersburg. Three hot spots are located in Leningrad oblast. The empirical research done in Kaliningrad (in‐depth interviews, documents analysis) showed that the policy‐making and implementation is also connected with the gap between well developed scientific research and expertise, due to the Western funding and business interests in the Baltic Sea, and weak policy instruments available for the regional and local authorities. In the poster will present both general mapping of the policy authorities, their relations and connections responsible in Russia for the Baltic Sea protection and empirical results, i.e. preliminary conclusions and citations from the interviews done in Kaliningrad in September 2009. 81 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Accidental versus operational oil spills from shipping in the Baltic Sea – Institutional responses and risk governance Björn Hassler Södertörn University, Stockholm, +46 8 608 44 33, [email protected] Oil pollution in the Baltic Sea has two principally different sources; large scale accidental discharges from groundings, collisions or similar kinds of incidents and operational emissions when, for example, cleaning oil tanks or flushing engine rooms. The former is characterized by a low probability of occurrence but potentially devastating effects at least locally, whereas the latter is of a diffuse nature with large numbers of spills but small amounts in individual cases. In aggregate, the two respective sources of oil spills have during the last decades been of roughly of the same size. The steep rise in especially Russian export of oil from its Baltic Sea ports has given both kinds of ecological and economic threats increased actuality. Departing from the risk assessment and governance concepts of risk, uncertainty and ambiguity on the one hand and regime interaction on the other, institutional and organizational responses in relation to the two kinds of oil spill hazards is compared in this article. Emphasis is given to institutional structures and different levels – global conventions, EU regulations/action plans and regional collaboration – even though individual country strategies are addressed as well when necessary for understanding governance and management outcomes. It is suggested that the differing character of the two causes of oil pollution has resulted in quite different institutional responses and governance structures. Whereas accidental oil spill risks primarily are handled in global conventions regulating design and safety of vessels carrying oil, operational emissions primarily are addressed at lower levels (i.e. EU, HELCOM), making use of e.g. smart regulation and economic incentives in combination with traditional monitoring. In conclusion, the diverging problem structure between the two categories of oil pollution means that governance structures have to be different to ensure high degrees of effectiveness and efficiency. However, lessons drawn on the importance of vessel design when it comes to reduction of accident risks can in certain areas be applied also in regard to reducing incentives for operational pollution. Similarly, experiences gained from using smart governance instruments to reduce intentional diffuse pollution might inform design aspects of international conventions aiming at reduction of accidental oil pollution hazards. Keywords: Oil spill, marine pollution, environmental governance, IMO. 82 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Environmental sensitivity mapping in Lithuanian marine areas Nerijus Blažauskas1, D.Depellegrin2 1 Klaipeda University Coastal Research and Planning Institute, Lithuania Wageningen University, the Netherlands 2 The Baltic Sea is one of the most intensively trafficked shipping areas in the world. The number and size of ships, especially tankers, have been increasing in the last years. This pressure driven by the world wide increasing demand for oil can have severe consequences on this environment. It is almost impossible to predict the occurrence of an oil spill, especially in such unique location as the Baltic Sea is, and even less to estimate the possible impacts to the coastal environment and consequences to human use resources and a human health. Lithuania and especially Klaipeda city, is one of the major oil terminal in the Baltic Sea. Despite the busy oil traffic, other important sources for oil pollution in Lithuania’s coastal areas are, the Butinge and Klaipeda oil terminal and the “D‐6” LTD “ “Lukoil – “Kaliningradmorneft” stationary oil drilling platform located in the Kaliningrad District (Russia). This is just another example showing that a coastal environment goes much further national borders and that decisions on the protection of a vulnerable coastal system can affect different level of governance and institutions. An integral component of a successful oil spill contingency plan is the determination and mapping of coastal environments, of its coastal features, socio‐economic and biological resources, which could be seriously damaged by oil spills. The main concept for oil spill sensitivity mapping was originated in the 1970’s, when scientists with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the US Coast Guards began to study and numerically classify the sensitivity of shorelines to oil spills. This Lithuanian sensitivity analysis is inspired by NOOA’s ESI approach, but was further integrated by other up to date sensitivity analysis around the world, one over all, the New Zealand Oil spill Sensitivity maps. The maps give a synthetic overview of the spatial distribution of resources and the main priority areas along the Lithuanian Coast. Up dated knowledge regarding in‐shore fish catches in 2006 was obtained by the Lithuanian Fishery Department, transferred to the GIS platform and included into the analysis in form of a map. Nevertheless its early development stage, the proposed cartographic model is an independent system, meant in future as Decision Support System (DSS) for technical and non–technical oil spill contingency planners. It aims to visualize areas which require to be prioritized in case of oil spill regardless of its source. The potential application of the model goes much further than oil spill contingency planning. The conceptual design adopted for the model linked with a user‐friendly interface opens a series of perspectives for its usage in GIS–based environmental and socio‐economic impact assessments in Lithuania’s coastal areas. The methodological approach provides a comprehensive overview of the model’s dynamics and by the cell grid ensures additional control to follow the model’s behaviour. Up dated information can be introduced separately and can be immediately visualized on the graphical interface. The model can be a valid tool for decision‐makers to develop oil spill contingency plans. However some overestimations in terms of sensitivity need to be handled and corrected in order to avoid misleading decisions. Furthermore the overall sensitivity map lacks in assessing highly sensitive areas evidenced by the single resource GIS maps this is especially the case for Smiltynė‘s recreational potential and commercial fishery importance. The basic amount and diversity of information required to compile the sensitivity analysis shows that experts from different scientific fields are necessary. The expert based judgement approach proved to be a valid solution, to improve the quality of the model and in particular it’s scoring system. Nevertheless the context in which an expert based approach is held is determinant for a methodological and scoring validation. The seasonal variation of sensitivity of the resources is almost neglected in the model because of scarcity of data regarding changes during the season. It was possible to make a seasonal analysis only possible for birds in autumn and winter period and due to the dataset provided by the Lithuanian Fishery Department, an analogous analysis for fishery resources as well, by taking into account seasonal income of catches throughout the year. The metabolic response of organisms change as well as the weather and sea conditions varies through the season and with them the natural clean up processes. To the same extent of how these patterns are affected by season variations, also the type and entity of consequences and damages for instance recreational areas. 83 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania MAIN AUTHOR INDEX Author Page Author Page Aps, Robert 80 Endler, R. 58 Almroth, E. Altartouri, Anas 3 64 Eremina, Tatjana Ferdelman, Timothy G. 51 47 Andersen, H.E. Anderson, Leif 29 20 Ferrarin, Christian Fetissov, Mihhail 16 81 Andreikėnaitė, Laura 9 Formolo, Michael J. 47 Aps, Robert Arheimer, Berit 33 28 Forslund, Helena Fossing, Henrik 22 18 Arppe, Laura 12 Förlin, Lars 7, 8, 69 Asker, Noomi Baršienė, Janina 69 9 Gammal, Johanna Gasiūnaitė, Zita 14 62 Bartoli, Marco 55 Gentz, Torben 46, 58 Bassompierre, Marc Behrendt, H. 13, 71 25 Gercken, Jens Getzlaff, Klaus 8 31 Belokurova, Elena Berezina, Nadezda 81 9, 75 Gilek, Michael Golubkov, Sergey 36 9, 65, 75, 78 Blazauslas, Nerijus. 83 Grigoriev, Andrey 45 Boikova, Elmira Bonsdorff, Erik 76 14 Griniene, Evelina Grzelak, K. 62 59 Botva, Uldis 76 Gustafson, Bo G. 3, 15 Brodersen, S.L.. Broeg, Katja 34 72 Hasler, Berit Hassler, Björn 34 82 Brüchert, Volker 47 Helle, Inari 5 Bučas, Martynas Burska, Dorota 4 48 Hietanen, Susanna Hinrichsen, Hans‐Harald 17, 19 31 Böttcher, M. E. Carstensen ,Jacob 58 13 Holmgren, Noel Holmström, Katrin 33 10 Chen, Xiaojie 64 Hong, B. 29 Conley, Daniel Czajkowski, M. 13 34 Hordoir, R. Humborg, Christoph 3 29 Dahllöf, Ingela 70 Hürdler, Jens 57 Dahné, Joel Daunys, Darius 28 4, 16 Höglund, A. Höher, Nicole 3 72 Deķere, Zane 76 Hänninen, Jari 44, 56 Dellwig, O. Delpeche, Nicole 58, 59 6, 32 Isotamm, Raul Ivanov, Alexey 6 74 Depellegrin, D. Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg 83 1 Jacobson, Therese Janas, Ursula 10 14, 48 Diekmann, Rabea 61 Jansen, Eystein 12 Dippner, Joachim W. Dobosz, Slawomir 44 12, 66 Jilbert, T. Johansson, Daniel 15 22 Donnelly, Chantal 28 Jolma, Ari 64 Edman, Moa Eilola, Kari 20 3 Jørgensen, Bo Barker Josefson, Alf 18, 47 14 Elofsson, K. 34 84 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Author Page Author Page Junker, Karin 44 Mattila, Johanna 23 Jäntti, Helena Jönsson, Anna Maria 17 37 Martinez, R. Maximov, Alexey A. 46 65 Kabel, Karoline 12 Meier, H.E. Markus 2, 3, 12 Kanerva, Mirella Karhu, Juha 9 12 Meyer, Sven Moros, Matthias 52 12, 50 Kautsky ,Lena 22 Mort, H.P. 15 Kavolytė, Rima Kholodkevich, Sergey 77 74 Mossbauer, Matthias Munch, K. 79 34 Kolesov, Alexander Konrad, M. 24 34 Mäntyniemi, Samu Möllmann, Christian 5 61 Kornienko, Eugeny 74 Mörth, C‐M. 29 Kornilovs, Georgs Kotilainen, Aarno 61 12, 50 Nechiporuk, Dmitry Neumann, Thomas 38 3, 12, 25, 53, 79 Kotilainen, Mia 12 Norkko, Alf 14, 49 Kotwicki, Lech Korpinen, Päivi 58, 59 27, 64 Norkko, Joanna Norrström, Niclas 14, 49 33 Korth, Frederike Kristiansson, Erik 54 69 Nozhenko, Maria von Numers, Mikael 81 23 Krämer, Inga 25 Olenina, Irina 77 Kuikka, Sakari Kuijpers, Antoon 5, 33, 80 12 Omstedt, Anders Otto, Saskia 20 61 Kuļikova, Irina 76 Paškauskas, Ričardas 16, 26 Kuparinen, Jorma Kurakin, Anton 19 74 Pereyra, Ricardo Petukhov, Vasiliy A. 22 65 Kuznetsov, Ivan 3 Pihlajamäki, Mia 35 Kuznetsova, Tatiana Kybranciene, Raimonda 74 63 Pilkaityte, Renata Pitkänen, Heikki 16, 26, 62,63,77 27 Köhler, Angela Lang, Thomas 72 9 Postel, Lutz Poulsen, Niels E. 61 67 Larsen, Martin M. 71 Rabalais, Nancy N. 11 Larsson, D.G. Joakim Laudon, Hjalmar 69 20 Razinkovas, Arturas Reed, D.C. 16, 26, 55, 63 15 Lehmann, Andreas 31 Reinholdsson, Maja 47 Lehtonen, Kari Leipe, Thomas 9, 73 50 Rosberg ,Jörgen Ryabchuk, Daria 28 12, 24, 45 Lendasse, Amaury 44 Rzemykowska, Halina 14 Lenz, Conny Leontiev, Igor 13 24 Råberg, Sonja Savchuk, O. P. 22 3 Liiv, Innar Lindegarth, Mats 80 23 Sańko, Tomasz Schernewski, Gerald 68 25, 53, 80 Liskow, Iris 54 Schiedek, Doris 71 Schlüter, M. Schneider, Bernd 46, 58 21 Lougheed, Bryan 12 Łukawska‐Matuszewska, Katarzyna 48 Lyubimtsev, Vasiliy 74 Schumacher, Tom 39 Makrushin, Andrey 78 Schäffer, Frank Seisuma, Zinta 53 76 85 BONUS Annual Conference, 19‐21 January 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania Author Page Author Page Sharapova, Alla 45 Vaičiūtė, Diana 77 Sivkov, Vadim Slomp, Caroline P. 45 15 Venohr, Markus Viikmäe, Bert 57 6, 32 Smedberg, E. 29 Villnäs, Anna 14, 49 Snickars, Martin Snowball, Ian 23 12 Virtasalo, Joonas Vogler, Susann 12, 50 58, 59 Soomere, Tarmo 32 Voß, Maren 52, 54 Spiridonov, Mikhail Storm, Lars M. 12, 24, 45 71 Vuori, Kristiina Vuorinen, Ilppo 9 44, 56 Strand, Jakob Strömqvist, Johan 8, 70, 71 28 Was, Adam Weckman, Anna 34 73 Stybel, N. 25 Wegener, Gunter 47 Störmer, Oda Šulčius, S. 79 62 Wenne, Roman Witkowski, Andrzej 68 12, 66 Sundelin,Brita 8, 10 Wulff Fredrik 29 Swaney, D.P. Szymczycha, B. 29 58, 59 Yang, Wei Zbawicka, Małgorzata 28 68 Tairova, Zhanna Thang, Nguyen M 70 47 Zhamoida, Vladimir Zilius, Mindaugas 24, 45 16, 26, 55 Tiselius, Peter 30, 60 Zillén, Lovisa 13 Tynkkynen, Nina Tönnesson, Kajsa 35 30, 60 Zonyte, Audrone Zylicz, T. 63 34 Uusitalo, Laura 5 86 BONUS – Baltic Organisations Network for Funding Science EEIG Hämeentie 33 • FI-00500 Helsinki • Finland tel + 358 400 404011 • fax + 358 9 478 00044 • www.bonusportal.org
