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American Water Resources Association 2012 ANNUAL WATER RESOURCES CONFERENCE Nov. 12-15, 2012 Jacksonville, FL Tuesday, Nov. 13 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM SESSION 21: (Special Session) USGS National Hydrologic Model 3 Approach for Assessment of Water Availability in Major River Basins in Alabama - Ana Maria Garcia, U.S. Geological Survey, Raleigh, NC (co-authors: R. Knight, J. LaFontaine) Climatic and water-use changes can present major challenges when water managers try to maintain permitted withdrawals while also providing for in-stream uses such as habitat. The National Hydrologic Model (NHM) infrastructures, being developed by USGS, was selected as the framework for development of regional-scale hydrologic models to aid water managers in Alabama in their assessment of Alabama surface water availability. The hydrologic model PRMS (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System) which is part of the NHM, was configured to provide a detailed water budget analysis, a critical starting point for developing realistic targets for within-basin and basin-to-basin water supply development. The major drainage areas represented by the models are the Mobile River basin; including the Tombigbee and Alabama rivers, Gulf of Mexico basins; the Middle Tennessee River; and the Chattahoochee River. The models were configured using a detailed characterization of spatially explicit hydrologic parameters based on 1:100,000-scale hydrography (National Hydrography Dataset Plus) in conjunction with current geospatial data on climate, land-use, and topography .The calibration strategy implemented a multi-objective estimation technique (based on a shuffled complex evolution algorithm) coupled with a nested calibration approach, where upstream basins were calibrated before downstream basins. This methodology allowed stream-flow calibration at most USGS stream gages in the study area. Model performance was evaluated by calculating yearly Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) coefficients over the 10-year simulation periods. Results showed the models were accurate in simulating stream flow (NSE > 0.5) and can be used to quantify the current state of Alabama's surface water budget. An Application of the National Hydrologic Model in Puerto Rico - Ashley Van Beusekom, North Carolina State University, Wichita Falls, TX The high rainfall in Puerto Rico's inland mountains supplies water to the rest of the densely populated island. The sedimentary rocks nearer to the coast make swamps and estuaries common. Man-made reservoirs are abundant; 70% of the water supply in Puerto Rico comes from surface water runoff. The reservoirs are also used for collecting for flood control and hydroelectric power generation. Climate change in the Caribbean has reduced the amount of rainfall in Puerto Rico. Because of this, the groundwater sources are being depleted and surface water sources are becoming even more important. The National Hydrologic Model (NHM) approach was applied to model the Puerto Rico hydrologic system over the past 60 years using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based model that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land-use on basin hydrology. This application used inputs from the NHM Geospatial Fabric, which defined hydrologic response units and associated parameters from NHDPlus and other datasets. The acreage of waterbodies is substantial enough that it was included in order to simulate the hydrology of the surface depressions. After the NHM-consistent multi-basin, multi-step, multi-objective model calibration with the past climate data was done, future climate scenarios were ran to assess the response of Puerto Rico's hydrologic system to climate change. An Application of the National Hydrologic Model in the Upper South Platte River Basin, Colorado – Lauren Hay, U.S. Geological Survey, Lakewood, CO (co-author: E. Kuhr) Warmer temperatures are hastening the timing of spring snowmelt peak flows on snowmelt-dominated rivers across western North America. Currently, cottonwood and willow seed dispersal tends to occur during or just after snowmelt peak flow. An application of the National Hydrologic Model was used to develop a simulation model of the upper South Platte River Basin (SPRB, drainage area 25,016 km2) located in the front range of the Rocky Mountains in Northern Colorado. The application will be used to simulate flood timing, potential climate change effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, and seedling recruitment. This application used the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based model that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land-use on basin hydrology. The South Platte River Basin was first partitioned into Hydrologic Response Units based on an aggregation of NHDPlus watersheds. Climate input data (temperature and precipitation) were then developed using the software program Downsizer. Finally, the software program Project Chief was used to set up the modeling file structure, input files, and maps required for PRMS application. A multi-basin, multi-step, multi-objective process was used for model calibration. Results from this application are presented and will be used to evaluate the changes in the timing of both peak streamflow which could potentially effect seedling recruitment. Combining the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System with the Reg3CM Regional Climate Model to Estimate Potential Effects of Climate Change on Northern Great Plains Streams - Katherine Chase, U.S. Geological Survey, Helena, MT (co-authors: L. E. Hay, S. W. Hostetler) Streams in the Northern Great Plains provide critical "green lines" of habitat for aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. The fish in these streams have evolved to survive heat, cold, floods, and drought. However, changes in water quantity associated with global climate change may transform some prairie streams from essential refuges to habitats no longer capable of supporting fishes. U.S. Geological Survey researchers and their partners are studying these potential changes in stream ecosystems in the Montana portion of the northern Great Plains. The study design and preliminary results will be discussed during this presentation. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) loosely coupled with the RegCM3 regional climate model is being used to estimate possible changes in streamflow under future climate scenarios in eastern Montana. PRMS is a deterministic, distributedparameter, process-based model that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow. RegCM3 is used to dynamically downscale global climate simulations. Local PRMS models will be constructed for the Redwater River and O'Fallon Creek watersheds in eastern Montana. Parameters for these local models will be extracted from a regional PRMS model for the entire Missouri River watershed. The local models will then be calibrated to historical streamflow data. Both the local and regional PRMS watershed models will be used to simulate streamflows for more than 1,000 sites in eastern Montana where fisheries data have been collected. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate a wide range of possible future climate scenarios on a global scale. RegCM3 uses lateral boundary conditions from selected GCMs, and then simulates atmospheric circulation and surface interactions internally at a 15-kilometer resolution. Precipitation and temperature time series simulated by RegCM3 will be used to force the PRMS models to generate streamflows under possible future climate scenarios. Fisheries managers will be able to combine possible future streamflows with fisheries data to help focus conservation and restoration efforts in the northern Great Plains. Information related to changes in timing and quantities of streamflow also will be useful to watershed conservation groups, ranchers, and others that rely on northern Great Plains streams.