Download Ola Lindhé: Klimatändring i Karibien

Ola Lindhé: Klimatändring i Karibien - påverkan på natur och näringsliv vid en
fördubbling av växthusgaser i atmosfären.
Climate change in the Caribbean - influences on nature and economy due to a doubling of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Abstract - An increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is a problem that
scientists and others try to see the consequence of, globally and regionally. Different "General
Circulation Models" (GCM) have been done to see how the greenhouse gases effect the nature.
The models have been done through to see to the transient and equilibrium response, and at the
same time they calculate the thermal inertia in the oceans. In my investigated area, the
Caribbean, there shall be, according to the models, a doubling of the greenhouse gases at the year
2025 (from the end of the 1900´s century). The changes will have full effect in 2050, when the
thermal inertia in the oceans have caught up the atmospheric change. The effects will be a
temperature increase of 3° C and a sea level rise of 50 cm. This will lead to an increased
evaporation, wind speed and that the number of hurricanes will rise. This influences for instance
the production of primary crops, the states′ economy and the condition for human change.
Something we rarely think about is, that even the mangrove forests and the coral reefs will be
affected. They play an important role since they work as a bump against the waves. If these
mangrove forests and coral reefs disappear, the erosion will be much bigger. I have chosen four
islands to represent the hole Caribbean. The consequences for them are different. On the very flat
and low country Turks and Caicos Islands large areas will becomeflooded. These low countries
are the most vulnerable ones. Cuba, St Kitts and Nevis and Grenada will not be affected as much
as the low countries, but they all get their specific problems they must handle. Common for the
last mentioned countries is that they must invest much money in agriculture and that they must
continue to attract tourists, although many attractive beaches will disappear when the sea level
rises. It is very important that these two industries continue to work, since it is for the most
countries, their biggest income. An increased wind speed, evaporation and temperature will
effect the primary crops in the Caribbean. Tobacco and sweet potato will be most affected. It can
be of interest with substitutes or, if possible, try to create new cultivation further up in the terrain,
to enable a continuation of the same quantity of export and not have to import more corn.
For the whole Caribbean the consequences will be as follows: the consequence for the Greater
Antilles will be like in Cuba, on the low islands, Bahamas and Cayman Island, the situation will
be like in Turks and Caicos Islands. For the islands in the Lesser Antilles the consequence will
be different. Each island will get different problems, because the Lesser Antilles is found from
about 10°N to 18° N. A distance which in these areas is very important. Furthermore, volcanic
hazards can ravage islands in the Lesser Antilles, something that does not relate to a climate
change but is still an important view to deal with.
Earth Sciences Centre, Göteborg University
Publ. B126 1998, ISSN 1400-3821