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The past, present and future climate of Peace District Bill Taylor Pacific & Yukon Environment Canada Environnement Canada Environment Canada The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “The work of the…IPCC represents the consensus of the international science community on climate change science. We recognize IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information…and endorse its method of achieving this consensus.” Joint statement by Academies of Science – May 2001 www.ipcc.ch Environnement Canada Environment Canada Part 1 Evidence of Climate Change Is the climate changing? Environnement Canada Environment Canada Global Climate Trends Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Earth’s temperature record deschutes.gso.uri.edu/ www.studyworksonline.com www.studyworksonline.com Proxy record Environnement Canada Environment Canada www.studyworksonline.com Instrumental record Variations in the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1100 years Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: National Academy of Science, 2006 Glaciers in retreat Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: IPCC, Third Assessment Report, 2001 Arctic Sea Ice Melting Minimum concentration of Arctic sea ice in 1979 Concentration of Arctic sea ice on Sept 21, 2005 Arctic ice has been retreating at a rate of more than 8 percent per decade. Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: University of Colorado “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.” “Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).” “The updated 100-year linear trend (1906–2005) is 0.74 ºC” Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007 Part 2 Trends in Canadian Climate Is Canada’s climate changing? Environnement Canada Environment Canada Temperature trends in Canada from 1950–1998 Daily Minimum Units are degrees C per 49-year period. Grid squares with trends statistically significant at 5% are marked by crosses. Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: Zhang et al, 2000 Trends in daily minimum temperature seasonal - from 1950–1998 Units are degrees C per 49-year period. Grid squares with trends statistically significant at 5% are marked by crosses. Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: Zhang et al, 2000 Trends in Annual Temperature 1950-2002 Daily Minimum Daily Maximum Change in °C Change in °C 0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 1.5 1.5 to 2 2 to 2.5 2.5 to 3 3 to 3.5 0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 1.5 1.5 to 2 2 to 2.5 2.5 to 3 3 to 3.5 Dawson Whitehorse Watson Lake Dawson Whitehorse Watson Lake Fort Nelson Dease Lake Fort Nelson Dease Lake Fort St John Prince Rupert Prince George Cape St James Quatsino Golden Kamloops Cranbrook Summerland Victoria Statistically significant if circled Environnement Canada Environment Canada Fort St John Prince Rupert Prince George Cape St James Quatsino Golden Kamloops Cranbrook Summerland Victoria Trends in Seasonal Precip 1950-2002 Winter Dawson Dawson Fort Nelson Dease Lake Prince Rupert Prince Rupert Golden Kamloops Cranbrook Summerland Prince George Cape St James Victoria Summer Dawson Golden Kamloops Cranbrook Summerland Quatsino Victoria Autumn Dawson Whitehorse Watson Lake Whitehorse Watson Lake Fort Nelson Dease Lake Fort Nelson Dease Lake Fort St John Prince Rupert Prince George Cape St James Quatsino Environment Canada Fort St John Prince George Percent change Environnement Canada Fort Nelson Dease Lake Fort St John Quatsino Statistically significant if circled Whitehorse Watson Lake Whitehorse Watson Lake Cape St James -45 to -30 -30 to -15 -15 to -5 -5 to 5 5 to 15 15 to 30 30 to 45 45 to 60 Spring Golden Kamloops Cranbrook Summerland Victoria Fort St John Prince Rupert Prince George Cape St James Quatsino Golden Kamloops Cranbrook Summerland Victoria Trends in Daily Minimum Temperatures Grande Prairie 15 10 5 0 Winter -5 Spring -10 Summer 0 Winter temps. Grande Prairie Autumn Trend over 83 years: 2.2º C (Not statistically sig.) -15 -5 -20 2002 1997 1992 1987 1982 1977 1972 1967 1962 1957 1952 -15 1947 -10 1942 1937 1932 1927 1922 -30 Winter Tmin -25 Variations in Winter Daily Minimum Temperature Grande Prairie -20 0 -25 -30 1900 -5 1920 1940 1960 -10 1980 2000 2020 Year Winter Tmin PDO+ -15 PDO- -20 -25 Environnement Canada Environment Canada 2002 1997 1992 1987 1982 1977 1972 1967 1962 1957 1952 1947 1942 1937 1932 1927 1922 -30 Part 3 Attribution Why is the climate changing? Environnement Canada Environment Canada Outgoing Heat Energy Reflected Energy ~31% Incoming Solar Energy The Atmosphere’s Energy Budget Environnement Canada Environment Canada Energy Trapped By Greenhouse Gases (CO2, CH4, N20 + Water vapour) The Carbon Budget: Sources and Sinks of CO2 (GtC per year) Fossil fuel burning (6.3) Deforestation (2.2) 2005: 379 ppm Net Atmospheric Increase = 3.2 Gt per year Terrestrial Uptake (2.9) Ocean Uptake (2.4) Source: Woods Hole Research Centre Environnement Canada Environment Canada Trends in CO2 Concentrations CO2 concentration (parts per million by volume) (Past 1000 Years) 380 360 340 Directly Measured 320 Data from ice cores 300 280 260 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: IPCC, Third Assessment Report, 2001 Global Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases “Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.” “The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture.” Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007 Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007 Canada’s GHG emissions Canada was 34% above Kyoto target in 2004 Environnement Canada Environment Canada Part 4 Climate change projections How will climate change in future? Environnement Canada Environment Canada Global Climate Models Computer simulations of the climate system – Processes – Feedbacks Used to explore the effects of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere Environnement Canada Environment Canada Future CO2 emissions Demographics – population growth? Economic development – rate, type? Natural resources – rate of consumption? Social-cultural change? Technology – alternative fuels? Environnement Canada Environment Canada Projected global temperature change Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007 The Future? Unprecedented warming! Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001 “Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic ocean” Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007 “Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions, continuing observed patterns in recent trends.” Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007 Projected change in surface temperature to 2100 Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis Part 5 Climate change impacts What is our vulnerability to climate change? Environnement Canada Environment Canada Reduction in water supplies Standardized April 1 SWE for Thompson and Okanagan Basins (13 Stations) 2.00 1.50 SWE_Index 1.00 0.50 0.00 1940 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 Environnement Canada Environment Canada 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Impacts on Water Supply Reduction in snow pack More rain dominated hydrograph Change in volume and timing of peak flows Stream Discharge Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: Wendy Merritt & Younes Alila, UBC – UBC Watershed Model results Okanagan Basin crop water use in response to climate change Cubic metres (millions) 400 Total water use 350 300 A21 B21 250 200 historic 150 CGCM2CSIROM2- 100 HADCM3- 50 0 hist 2020 2050 2080 2020 2050 2080 Scenario date Environnement Canada Environment Canada Source: Denise Neilsen, PARC, Ag. Canada, Summerland Forest disturbances Increased fire frequency Longer fire season Drier conditions More lightning Insect outbreaks Better winter survival rates Range expansion Environnement Canada Environment Canada Future changes in insect damages? Pinus contorta Pinus banksiana Mountain pine beetle Exploding MPB population But currently occupies only a fraction of its potential range Source: Canadian Forest Service, NRCan Environnement Canada Environment Canada The related increase in land instability may have large impacts on human structures such as buildings roads Environnement Canada Environment Canada and pipelines Warmer winters will also reduce the reliability of winter roads …on frozen wetlands Winter Road, Norman Wells …or on frozen lakes and rivers Ice Road, Tuktoyaktuk Environnement Canada Environment Canada Conclusion Climate change now underway Potential impacts range from positive to catastrophic The risk of danger due to climate change is real and significant. Adaptation – be prepared! Environnement Canada Environment Canada
