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Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation Adaptation to Global to Climate Climate Change Change AF1 – Urban Environmental Planning WP 5 – Urban Transport Prof. Dr. Günter Emberger Dr. Paul Pfaffenbichler Vienna University of Technology Institute of Transportation Research Center of Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change Objectives of WP5 Urban Transport The objective of work package 5 Urban Transport is to assess the potential of land use and transport strategies to improve the effectiveness of the urban transport system and to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation Adaptation to Global to Climate Climate Change Change Urban Flooding Urban Climate Urban Energy Urban Transport Public transport in HCMC is very poorly developed. Urban Transport in HCMC Motorised vehicle ownership (per 1,000 residents) HCMC Number Mode share City Motorcycles Cars Total Motorbikes ~3 million 60%-70% Vienna 42 417 459 10% Hanoi 412 43 455 Public Transport Most traffic related impacts on the environment derive from private passenger traffic. (Sources: Magistratsabteilung 66 - Statistisches Amt 2002; TDSI 2004) WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation Adaptation to Global to Climate Climate Change Change Urban Flooding Urban Climate Urban Energy Urban Transport VN Research & Cooperation Partners Asso. Prof. Nguyen Ba Hoang, PhD. Dean Civil Engineer faculty HoChiMinh University of Transport. Nguyen Thi Phuong Hien Director Transport Environment and Development Center (TEDEC) Transport Development and Strategy Institute (TDSI) Ministry of Transport of Vietnam 162 Tran Quang Khai, Hanoi WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change The strategic dynamic land use and transport interaction model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) Models so far: Vienna (AUT) Madrid (ESP) Leeds (UK) Edinburgh (UK) Oslo (NOR) Helsinki (S) Chiang Mai (THA) Ubon Ratchantani (THA) Hanoi (VN) www.ivv.tuwien.ac.at/forschung/mars-metropolitan-activity-relocation-simulator.html WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change The MARS flight simulator TRANSPORT POLICIY INSTRUMENTS SLOW Motorcycle Car Public transport Car Examples for potential scenarios Improving bus system Increasing road capacity Metro System population growth WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change The MARS model output Mode Share Peak - motorized Results over Time 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 2 4 6 8 ms car peak : Actual Run ms moto peak : Actual Run ms car peak : Do-Nothing ms moto peak : Do-Nothing WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger 10 12 14 16 18 Time (Year) 20 22 24 26 28 30 Percent Percent Percent Percent Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change The MARS flight simulator model of Hanoi Results in time and space WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change Tasks I • Set up MARS Environment for HCMC • Adaption of zoning system (24 districtcs, based of AF1 information) – preparation of input data files – set up of graphical dynamic GIS userinterface (AniMAP) • Integration of motorbikes in MARS as an additional means of transport (slow, car,pt,motorcycle, rail) • Literature review – HCMC transport masterplan, Verkehrserhebung HCMC 1997, HEPA – Traffic counts data, MVA – CUBE model, Statistical yearbook HCMC, Vietnam Infrastructure Strategy other AF1 & AF2 data sources, etc... WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change Tasks II Data Collection excercise in collaboration with Vietnamese Partners regarding • population, employment, income, hh-size • travel times, travel costs per means of transport • estimations of housing costs • land use, developable land • modal split, traffic counts • etc... WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change Concrete activities with our Partners I Empirical investigations regarding road capacities • Speed measurements on 10 different roads separated for lorries, buses, car, cycle and pedestrians for peak and offpeak. • Analysis of the average occupancy rate of the vehicles • Analysis of the throughput of roads • Measurement of transport related noise emissions • Estimation of travel speeds by travelling from city center to specific locations during peak/ off peak hours using different means of transport (bike, motorbike, public transport, car, etc..) WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change Concrete activities with our Partners II • Providing information in English of existing / planned further steps regarding land use and transport plans for HCMC (Compilation of relevant documents and summaries in English) – partly finished • Summary of traffic related laws • Information on enforcement • Support on scenario definitions (such as assessment of the Metro system, impact analysis of road network extensions, car ownership development, etc…) At the moment we are in right the middle of this data gathering process !! WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change Further outlook • Thursday 2nd April 09: HCMC UoT - International Symposium of transport planning and influence of climate change • Set up MARS Model /calibration /scenarios • Future: Organising Training Courses in HCMC WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation Adaptation to Global to Climate Climate Change Change Thank you for your attention! Prof. Dr. Günter Emberger VN Mobile: 01265427640 [email protected] Dr. Paul Pfaffenbichler Mobile VN: 01265427640 [email protected] Vienna University of Technology Institute of Transportation Research Center of Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change The MARS Hanoi model WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change The MARS flight simulator model of Hanoi The land use part H4Land available for Land Price development + H2+ + H3Attractiveness to + develop + New Rent Housing + H1+ Housing Excess demand stock - for housing + + Accessibility + Population WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Green areas Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change Model Set Up – Data Requirements • • • • • • population, employment, income, hh-size travel times, travel costs per means of transport estimations of housing costs land use, developable land modal split, traffic counts etc... WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change A simple SD model of the interaction between car ownership and land and energy consumption 600 (veh/1000 inh) 400 (year 0 = 100) 20 (km/h) M SM SM M 300 (veh/1000 inh) 200 (year 0 = 100) 10 (km/h) M P P PS P 0 (veh/1000 inh) 0 (year 0 = 100) 0 (km/h) P M P S S M S P P M M S S S P C 0 M C 4 C 8 C C 12 16 C C 20 C C 24 28 Vehicle stock[moto] : Current (veh/1000 inh) M M M M M M Vehicle stock[car] : Current (veh/1000 inh) C C C C C C C Petrol consumption P P P P P P P P (year 0 = 100) Speed (km/h) S S S S S S S S S S Source: Pfaffenbichler et. al. (2007) WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change What we plan to do in the project • Set up a MARS Model for HCMC • Set up an fleet composition model • Expected results – forcast of modal shares, accidents, emissions (CO2), congestion, land use development, and many other indicators • What we need – Information based on zones regarding population, motorisation rate, public transport, modal shares, household income, land use, etc. WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change TU Vienna – Institut for Transport Planning and Traffic Enginering TU Vienna – founded 1815 • 21 Bachelorstudies and 41 Masterstudies, 5 Lectorship-studies, 8 faculties, 230 partner universities • 17.579 students; 151 Professors, 2400 Research Staff, 3500 total staff; approx. 155 Mio. EUR budget plus approx. 45 Mio. EUR projects Institute for Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering • founded 1960ies, 14 staff, 4 professors, involvement in >30 international projects • Main activities: teaching, research, planning, training WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change Background of TUW-IVV www.ivv.tuwien.ac.at/forschung/projekte/international-projects/sparkle-2004.html Involved Countries: UK, A, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia Objectives (2004-2006) • to promote and transfer knowledge to the countries of South East Asia on the process of developing sustainable urban land use and transport policies • to provide technical training to local planners and decision-makers on how to use scientific and logical approaches to formulate a sustainable land use and transport policy. WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change MARS applcations Europe Europe WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change MARS applcations Asia Asia WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change A simple SD model of the interaction between car ownership and land and energy consumption Volume/Capacity T=0 <Built capacity> V free Alpha Vehicle stock T=0 Volume/Capacity Vehicle inflow Purchase price <Time> Vehicle stock Vehicle outflow Potential vehicles T Space consumption car/moto Lifespan <Vehicle stock T=0> V congested Distance V congested T-1 New capacity decision Capacity in Threshold construction Parameter Energy T=0 Energy mode <V congested> Source: Pfaffenbichler et. al. (2007) WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Beta Built capacity Construction time Energy relative <Vehicle stock> Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009 Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change A SD model of the interaction between car ownership and land and energy consumption • A System Dynamics model was created to simulate the interaction between car and motorcycle ownership, infrastructure development and land and energy consumption. • This model was used to give a first estimation of the effects of the WTO accession of Vietnam. WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009