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Implications for London Tony Travers LSE Implications • Longer-term squeeze on expenditure • Opportunities for London and other cities • Fiscal devolution • Challenges for London Longer-term squeeze on expenditure • ‘Unprotected’ spending will fall • Boroughs, police, fire • Capital expenditure planned to be flat as a % of GDP • But, HS2, HS3 may pre-empt resources • Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland may be able to increase ‘Barnett’ funding because of post-election deals • Outside the capital, London not seen as particularly in need of extra funding Opportunities for London - and other cities • Pressure on public spending may lead to devolution of spending • NHS to Greater Manchester • Skills etc to GM and London • Other service funding? • Whitehall is poor at managing major projects, especially IT and procurement of assets • TfL, Crossrail, boroughs better Fiscal devolution • Tiny steps in England taken at Budget 2015 with 100% retention of NDR by Greater Manchester and Greater Cambridge • Scotland, Wales: tax devolution • Minority government might be able to do a deal relating to fiscal devolution • London needs convincing governance for potential fiscal/public expenditure devolution Challenges for London • Risk that a government deal with minority parties could be ‘anti-London’ • There is no ‘London Nationalist Party’ • That city will be required to pay for its own infrastructure • Hard to deliver mega-projects… • Needs to be able to capture and re-invest its own taxyield • Needs Mayor and MPs to fight for London’s interests Implications for London Tony Travers LSE
