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The Week at a Glance
May 1st, 2015
THE WEEK IN NUMBERS
(April 27th – May 1st)
Last price
Change Week
% Change
Week
Dow Jones Industrial
17,931.61
-148.53
-0.82%
0.61%
8.29%
15.5
S&P 500
2,099.87
-17.82
-0.84%
1.99%
11.48%
18.4
Nasdaq Composite
4,963.59
-128.50
-2.52%
4.80%
20.26%
28.7
15,325.83
-82.50
-0.54%
4.74%
4.51%
20.7
3,615.59
-98.37
-2.65%
14.91%
13.03%
21.8
FTSE 100 (UK)
6,985.95
-84.75
-1.20%
6.39%
2.60%
26.4
DAX (Germany)
11,454.38
-356.47
-3.02%
16.82%
19.28%
19.0
Nikkei 225 (Japan)
19,531.63
-488.41
-2.44%
11.92%
34.84%
21.5
Hang Seng
28,133.00
72.02
0.26%
19.18%
27.10%
11.9
MSCI World
1,778.40
-21.46
-1.19%
4.02%
5.21%
18.6
MSCI EAFE
1,918.40
-13.54
-0.70%
8.09%
-1.30%
18.4
Last price
Change Week
% Change
Week
S&P TSX Consumer Discretionary
1,932
-24.51
-1.25%
2.70%
22.30%
23.9
S&P TSX Consumer Staples
3,785
-79.21
-2.05%
0.50%
34.45%
30.2
S&P TSX Energy
2,818
-45.82
-1.60%
4.79%
-15.56%
28.0
S&P TSX Financials
2,333
-11.79
-0.50%
1.70%
8.31%
13.3
S&P TSX Health Care
3,090
108.52
3.64%
52.53%
72.51%
76.6
S&P TSX Industrials
2,381
-36.99
-1.53%
-1.32%
13.61%
22.2
S&P TSX Info Tech.
210
-12.00
-5.40%
8.97%
33.35%
33.8
S&P TSX Materials
2,139
64.61
3.11%
8.10%
-5.63%
55.7
S&P TSX Telecom Services
1,276
-16.09
-1.25%
0.00%
7.78%
16.4
S&P TSX Utilities
2,008
-54.12
-2.63%
2.26%
4.92%
36.2
COMMODITIES
Last price
Change Week
% Change
Week
Oil-WTI futures (US$/Barrels)
Natural gas futures (US$/mcf)
Gold Spot (US$/OZ)
CRB Index
$59.32
$2.78
$1,173.84
227.35
3.77
0.24
-5.60
3.30
6.79%
9.64%
-0.47%
1.47%
Curr. Net
Change
0.0001
0.0325
-0.0049
-0.0001
% Change
Week
0.01%
2.99%
-0.32%
-1.01%
INDEX
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Contact
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Investment S&P/TSX Composite
Advisor for more information
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50
regarding this document.
S&P TSX SECTORS
CURRENCIES in US$
Cdn$
Euro
Pound
Yen
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research
Last price
0.8210
1.1198
1.5139
0.0083
% Change %Change 1
YTD
Year
% Change %Change 1
YTD
Year
% Change %Change 1
YTD
Year
11.36%
-3.95%
-0.93%
-1.13%
-40.33%
-41.20%
-8.60%
-25.94%
% Change %Change 1
YTD
Year
-4.59%
-10.02%
-7.44%
-19.26%
-2.81%
-10.38%
-0.42%
-14.86%
Trailing
P/E
Trailing
P/E
NBF
2015E
$53.25
$2.80
$1,250.00
NA
NBF 4Q
2015E
0.79
1.08
1.50
0.008
Approximate time: 11:30 am
For NBF Disclosures, please visit URL: http://www.nbcn.ca/contactus/disclosures.html
The Week at a Glance
THE WEEK IN NUMBERS
FIXED INCOME
(April 27th – May 1st)
NUMBERS
CANADIAN YIELD CURVE
Change Week Change YTD
in bps
in bps
0.0
-25
0.4
-26
7.4
-31
15.3
-31
20.2
-14
17.8
-11
Last yield
0.75%
0.65%
0.71%
1.03%
1.64%
2.23%
CDA Overnight
3 Month T-Bill
2 Yr Canada Government
5 Yr Canada Government
10 Yr Canada Government
30 Yr Canada Government
CANADIAN BOND - TOTAL
RETURN
DEX Universe Bond Index
DEX Short Term Bond Index
DEX Mid Term Bond Index
DEX Long Term Bond Index
Change Week
US YIELD CURVE
-0.65%
-0.10%
-0.55%
-1.43%
Change Week Change YTD
in bps
in bps
0.0
0
-1.5
-4
9.3
-7
17.0
-17
18.5
-8
19.6
5
Last yield
0.25%
0.00%
0.60%
1.48%
2.09%
2.81%
U.S. FED Funds
3 Month T-Bill
2 Yr US Bonds
5 Yr US Bonds
10 Yr US Bonds
30 Yr US Bonds
Change One
Year in bps
-25
-30
-36
-64
-76
-70
Change
Y-T-D
2.74%
1.45%
2.98%
4.34%
Change One
Year in bps
0
-3
19
-19
-55
-65
CURRENT YIELD CURVE
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
yield
3.00%
U.S
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
CANADA
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Term
CANADIAN 5YR SPREADS
CAD Housing Trust AAA
Province Quebec
Province Ontario
Canada Corp BBB
Canada Corp Bank AA
CDN & US 10 YR SPREADS
Province Quebec
Province Ontario
Canada Corp BBB
US Finance AA
US Corp BBB
Sources: Bloomberg & PC Bonds
Last spread in
basis points (bp)
37
43
53
130
81
Last spread in
basis points (bp)
66
74
177
78
157
Change Week Change YTD
in bps
in bps
2.6
1.4
1.9
-4.4
-4.7
4
-5
-4
-15
-9
Change Week Change YTD
in bps
in bps
0.5
0.2
-5.7
-2.8
-3.2
-23
-17
-5
0
-10
Change One
Year in bps
6
-25
2
6
5
Change One
Year in bps
-27
-11
21
2
32
The Week at a Glance
NBF Economic
«
& Strategy
Group
WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH - WEEK IN REVIEW
CANADA – Real GDP was roughly flat in February, after a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in
the prior month. Goods producing industries saw a 0.2% drop in output, as declines for
construction (-0.2%), manufacturing (-0.8% largely due to autos), and mining/oil&gas support (15.4%), more than offset increases for mining (+3%), oil and gas (+0.1%), agriculture (+1.1%) and
utilities (+2.3%). Industrial production fell 0.4% as a result. The services sector's output rose 0.1%
as gains in retailing, real estate, education and health more than offset declines in wholesaling and
accommodation/food services. All told, the lack of growth in February was partly due to temporary
factors such as atypically bad weather and auto plant closures in Ontario. As such, one can expect
a rebound in growth soon. Still, given the poor start to the quarter, Q1 GDP growth is likely to be no
better than 0.5% annualized, the worst performance in over three years.
The Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), a survey of establishments (unlike the
Labour Force Survey which surveys households), showed that Canada gained 4K jobs in February.
Weekly earnings rose for the third straight month, taking the year-on-year wage growth to 2.7%.
Annual wage growth topped the national average in sectors like transportation/warehousing,
finance/insurance, mining/oil/gas, utilities, manufacturing, management, real estate, and health
care. Sectors including public admin, arts/entertainment, information/culture, construction, and
accommodation/food services had annual wage growth below the national average in February.
The SEPH has averaged 13K jobs/months over September-February, roughly in line with the LFS
whose paid component averaged 15K/month for the same 6-month period. While not stellar, that’s
not atrocious either. The SEPH shows hours worked falling slightly in Q1, consistent with a weak
GDP print in the quarter. Atypically bad weather and auto plant shutdowns temporarily limited
output and hence hours in the first quarter. Wages, however, are on track to grow at an annualized
pace of over 5%, the best in several quarters.
The Week at a Glance
NBF Economic
«
& Strategy
Group
UNITED STATES –
The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance estimate of Q1 GDP
growth came in at just +0.2% annualized. Trade was a drag on the economy due to contracting
exports. Domestic demand was also very soft with weak consumption growth (the worst since Q1
last year), weak residential investment (also worst since Q1 last year), a sharp contraction of
business investment in structures (the worst since Q1 of 2011), and another drag from
government. Inventories contributed significantly to growth. So, final sales, i.e. GDP excluding
inventories, contracted 0.5%, the worst performance since Q1 last year. Nominal GDP grew at an
annualized pace of only 0.1%, the worst since Q1. While disappointing, it’s clear that Q1 results
were impacted by temporary factors such as bad weather (which affected consumption and
construction) and the port strikes on the West Coast (which hurt exports). As those factors
dissipate, expect a rebound. That said, the inventory accumulation in Q1 will put a speed limit on
Q2 growth.
Personal income was flat while personal spending was up 0.4% in March. With spending
rising faster than income, the savings rate fell to 5.3%. In real terms, disposable income was
down 0.2% while spending rose 0.3%. The PCE deflator was up 0.2% in March, allowing the
year-on-year rate to remain unchanged at 0.3%. The core PCE deflator rose 0.1%, allowing the
annual core rate to remain unchanged at 1.3%.
Construction spending fell 0.6% in March after a flat print in the prior month (which was
previously reported at -0.1%). The residential sector saw a 1.6% decrease while the nonresidential sector was down -0.1%.
The 20-city Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.9% on a seasonally-adjusted basis in
February, the sixth increase in a row. That helped push the 20-city annual home price inflation
rate to 5%. On a three-month annualized basis, the 20-city index is growing at an annualized
pace of 11.5%, the highest since late 2013. San Francisco leads the pack with 3-month
annualized gains of 24.5%, while Las Vegas is at the bottom of the 20-city list with gains of 4.3%
annualized.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to a four-month low of 95.2 in April,
from an upwardly revised print of 101.4 in the prior month. The decline in confidence was due to
perceptions about both economic prospects (sub-index dropping to a 7-month low of 87.5) and
the present situation (sub-index falling to a 4-month low of 106.8). Consumers were less
optimistic than in the prior month about prospects for both employment and income. They were
also less enthusiastic than in the prior month about buying autos and major appliances.
The ISM manufacturing index was unchanged at 51.5 in April. The new orders and production
indices both rose a bit and remain well in expansion mode, while the employment index fell below
50, i.e. contraction territory, for the first time since May 2013. Interestingly, new export orders
rose above 50 for the first time in four months.
Weekly jobless claims data for the week of April 25th showed initial claims falling to 262K. The
more reliable 4-week moving average fell to 284K. Continuing claims for the prior week fell 74K
to 2.25 million.
The Week at a Glance
NBF Economic
«
& Strategy
Group
The Fed left monetary policy unchanged at its April meeting. The fed funds rate remains in the
0-0.25% range and the policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings was also left
unchanged. The Fed acknowledged the weak Q1 GDP results but, not surprisingly, thought this
was “in part reflecting transitory factors”. The FOMC still sees risks to the outlook for economic
activity and the labor market as nearly balanced and accordingly expects the economy to
“expand at a moderate pace” on the back of “appropriate monetary policy”. With regards to
inflation, the Fed now more explicitly mentions the impact of the strong USD via import prices.
While the Fed expects inflation to remain low over the near term, it still sees it rising toward 2%
over the medium term “as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of
declines in energy and import prices dissipate”. There was no dissent within the FOMC with
regards to the decision.
WORLD -
In the Eurozone, the first estimate of April CPI put the annual inflation rate at
0.0%. The annual core inflation rate, i.e. all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
was unchanged at 0.6%. The zone’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 11.3% in March as
declines in Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands offset increases in Italy and Austria. The jobless rate
was unchanged in Germany (4.7%) and France (10.6%). The Bank of Japan left monetary
policy unchanged with an 8-1 vote in favour of continuing with the ¥80 trillion/year asset
purchase programme. March data in Japan showed monthly drops of 1.9% for retail spending
and 0.3% for industrial output, while housing starts were up slightly in the month. CPI data, also
for March, showed the annual inflation rate, excluding the impact of the sales tax, rising to 0.2%.
The Week at a Glance
NBF ECONOMIC
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR - BUDGET 2015
& STRATEGY
TEAM
The mining/oil and gas sector accounts for a larger share of the economy in Newfoundland and
Labrador than in any other provincial jurisdiction. It follows that oil’s deep dive has dealt the provincial
economy and the government’s finances a heavy blow. Faced with a significant budgetary shortfall,
the budget included a number of tough love measures ahead of an expected election this fall. It will
take time to work down an outsized deficit, with the return to surplus pushed back to 2019-20. In the
meantime, the debt burden is heading higher, with bond investors due to see a notable increase in
supply from the province, including a scheduled $2 billion of gross borrowing this fiscal year.
HIGHLIGHTS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The 2014/15 deficit is now pegged at $924 million, little changed from a fall update but much
larger than originally planned as oil royalties slumped.
The deficit is expected to increase to roughly $1.1 billion in 2015/16. At 3.3% of GDP,
Newfoundland and Labrador’s shortfall resides at the high end of the provincial spectrum. A
return to surplus has been pushed back to 2019-20, with a three-year cumulative deterioration in
the province’s finances amounting to $1.6 billion versus last year’s budget.
After a 1.9% contraction in 2014, real GDP is expected to edge 0.3% lower this year. Further
declines in real output are projected through 2018. Meanwhile, lower oil prices should pull
nominal GDP 6.2% lower in 2015.
The budget is based on US$62/bbl Brent crude for 2015/16, with rising Brent prices forecast
thereafter (hitting US$90/bbl by 2020-21).
A fiscal recovery plan includes incremental taxes for high income earners and a 2%-point hike in
the HST, alongside other revenue measures which collectively aim to raise $250 million/year
once fully implemented.
In general, fiscal targets aim to cap the size of the deficit, the interest bite, the net debt burden
and cumulative new borrowings. Meanwhile, the government intends to establish a Generations
Fund by setting aside a portion of energy royalties.
The ratio of net debt to GDP is projected to hit 35% in 2015/16, topping out at 37.2% two years
later. While well shy of the previous peak, the debt-to-GDP profile has increased roughly 10%points relative to last year’s plan.
The province plans to borrow $2 billion in 2015/16 in order to make additional investments in
Nalcor, finance infrastructure and facilitate pension reform. Cumulative new borrowings over the
next four years amount to $4.85 billion.
Click here for full report
MANITOBA - BUDGET 2015
Focused on building rather than cutting
Manitoba is moving to invest in key strategic priorities, including public infrastructure and
education/training, in an effort to bolster long-term growth. Although the province’s well-diversified
economy is performing admirably, fulfilling the government’s priorities will entail a slower pace of
deficit reduction (and by extension incremental net debt) relative to the prior plan. While the debt
burden continues to edge higher, the interest bite is non-threatening and net funding requirements (in
many cases linked to a hydro development strategy) are viewed as quite manageable.
HIGHLIGHTS
•
Manitoba estimates it ran a $424 million summary accounts deficit in 2014-15 (0.7% of GDP).
That’s a deterioration of $67 million versus budget and $30 million compared to the more recent
Q3 fiscal update.
The Week at a Glance
NBF ECONOMIC
•
& STRATEGY
TEAM
•
•
•
•
•
Despite another year of reasonably healthy economic growth, a $422 million deficit in 2015-16
would be little changed year-on-year. At 0.6%, this year’s deficit would be a tad smaller as a
share of GDP, however.
Beyond 2015-16, fiscal forecasts are limited to core government, as opposed to the broader
summary account representation. When it comes to this narrower core government measure,
the timeline for a return to surplus has been pushed back to 2018-19—the second time
Manitoba has relaxed its deficit elimination target.
While the level of net debt came in above plan in 2014-15, the corresponding debt-to-GDP
ratio (29.5%) looked a bit better than the original target (29.8%). With net debt rising by $1.65
billion this fiscal year, debt-to-GDP is slated to rise to 30.9%. The province aims to keep the
debt burden in line with the provincial average. The interest bite remains relatively modest, as
debt charges consume just 5.6% of total revenue.
The budget maintained a focus on strategic infrastructure projects, including a record
investment of more than $1 billion this year. Education/training was another noted priority. The
capital tax on financial institutions is going up, but all told the budget delivered annualized tax
relief of nearly $60 million (net) on a full-year basis.
Gross borrowing requirements are similar to the prior year at $4.7 billion. That incorporates
$2.7 billion of new cash requirements (net of repayments) which are driven by Manitoba
Hydro’s development of its generation/transmission capabilities.
The provincial economy has performed well, with Manitoba having emerged as a provincial
leader in some key categories (including job creation). Real GDP is expected to grow by 2.5%
in 2015—matching the prior five-year average. Nominal GDP looks poised to run in and
around 4% for a third straight year. While real growth could ease modestly in 2016, firmer
prices are expected to translate into faster nominal growth next year (4.6%).
Click here for full report
The Week at a Glance
IN THE NEWS
-
U.S. and Canadian News
th
Monday April 27 , 2015
-
Teva Said to Take Acquisition Bid Directly to Mylan
Shareholders
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., whose $40.1
billion takeover offer for Mylan NV was rejected, is
meeting with key shareholders of the target company
to win their support.
-
Central GoldTrust’s largest shareholder backs
Sprott takeover
Central GoldTrust’s largest shareholder Pekin Singer
Strauss Asset Management said it supports an
unsolicited bid for the precious metals company
launched last week by Sprott Asset Management.
th
Tuesday April 28 , 2015
-
-
-
-
Americans’ Confidence Ebbs, Catching Up With
Spending Slowdown
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index
dropped to a four-month low of 95.2 in April, weaker
than the most pessimistic forecast.
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Increase at Faster
Pace
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values
increased 5 percent from February 2014, the biggest
year-to-year gain since August, after rising 4.5 percent
in the year ended in January. The median projection of
economists called for a 4.7 percent year-over-year
advance. Nationally, prices rose 4.2 percent.
Iron Mountain to Buy Recall for $2 Billion After
Raising Bid
Iron Mountain Inc., a U.S. data-storage company,
reached an agreement to buy Australian-U.S. competitor
Recall Holdings Ltd. for about A$2.5 billion (US$2
billion) after raising its bid following a rejection of an
offer last year.
Stephen Poloz explains his use of ‘atrocious’ to
describe the Canadian economy
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz defended
himself against criticism that his surprise January rate
cut unduly shocked markets and for failing to use
measured language like his predecessor, current Bank
of England chief Mark Carney.
-
th
Thursday April 30 , 2015
- Consumer Spending Ends Sluggish U.S. Quarter on
Better Note
Purchases rose 0.4 percent, the biggest increase since
November, after a 0.2 percent February gain that was larger
than previously estimated. The median forecast of
economists called for a 0.5 percent increase. Incomes were
little changed reflecting a drop in dividend payments.
- Worker Pay in U.S. Increased at Faster Pace in First
Quarter
The 0.7 percent advance in pay followed a 0.6 percent
increase in the fourth quarter. Private wages, which exclude
those government workers, rose 2.8 percent in the last year,
the biggest gain since the third quarter of 2008. The
agency’s employment cost index, which also includes
benefits, climbed 0.7 percent in the first quarter from the
prior three months.
- U.S. jobless claims sink to 15-year low
Initial jobless claims in the period stretching from April 19 to
April 25 fell to a seasonally adjusted 262,000 from a revised
296,000 in the prior week. That’s much bigger than Wall
Street expected.
- February GDP stalls as retail gains offset oil decline
Canada's gross domestic product remained at an
annualized $1.65 trillion while the median forecast of
economist was for a 0.1 percent contraction.
st
Friday May 1 , 2015
-
-
th
Wednesday April 29 , 2015
-
-
U.S. Economy Stalls in the First Quarter
Gross domestic product, the volume of all goods and
services produced, rose at a 0.2 percent annualized rate
after advancing 2.2 percent the prior quarter. The
median forecast of economists called for a 1 percent
gain. Consumer spending, the biggest part of the
economy, rose 1.9 percent, a little better than projected.
Pending Sales of Previously Owned U.S. Homes
Rose 1.1% in March
The index of pending home sales rose 1.1 percent after
a revised 3.6 percent jump in February that was the
biggest since October 2010. Demand picked up in the
South and West.
Click on title to view the full story.
Fed Says Economy Slowed in Winter as June Liftoff
Odds Drop
Federal Reserve policy makers said the economy
weakened, partly for reasons that will fade, after a sharp
slowdown reinforced expectations officials will keep interest
rates near zero at their next meeting in June or longer.
Perrigo Rejects Mylan’s Increased $32.7 Billion
Takeover Bid
Perrigo Co. rejected Mylan NV’s increased acquisition offer
of $32.7 billion in cash and stock, putting pressure on Mylan
to raise the bid further.
-
-
ISM manufacturing index flat in April but hiring turns
negative
U.S. manufacturers grew slightly in April as new orders rose,
but they also scaled back employment to the lowest level
since fall 2009.
March construction spending down 0.6%
Outlays for U.S. construction projects fell 0.6% in March to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of $967 billion. Economists
had expected a drop of 0.5%, compared with an originally
reported decrease of 0.1% in February.
April UMich sentiment rises to 95.9
Consumer sentiment rose to a final April reading of 95.9, up
from 93 in March and matching the preliminary estimate,
according to reports on the University of Michigan gauge.
Economists had expected a final April level of 96.
Canada manufacturing activity shrinks for third month
in April
The RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers'
index (PMI), a measure of manufacturing business
conditions, was nearly unchanged at a seasonally adjusted
49.0 last month from 48.9 in March.
The Week at a Glance
IN THE NEWS
-
International News
th
Monday April 27 , 2015
-
-
-
Greece Just Clipped Varoufakis’s Wings
Greece reshuffled its bailout-negotiating team, reining in
Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, after three months of
talks with creditors failed to unlock aid and a meeting
with his euro-area counterparts ended in acrimony..
Spain to lift its economic growth target for 2015
Spain’s economy is expected to grow 2.9% this year,
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said, touting the improved
forecast as a result of his government’s spending curbs
and warning against populist alternatives in this year’s
elections.
Capgemini buys IGATE for $4 billion
French computer services and technology company
Capgemini said it will buy U.S. peer IGATE for $4 billion,
making North America the French company's largest
market.
th
Thursday April 30 , 2015
- Euro Area Ends Flirt With Deflation
Prices stagnated in April from a year earlier after falling 0.1
percent in March. The inflation reading was in line with the
median estimate. Unemployment held at 11.3 percent in
March.
- Saudi Arabia Is Burning Through Its Foreign Reserves
at a Record Pace
The kingdom spent $36 billion of the central bank’s net
foreign assets -- about 5 percent of the total -- in February
and March, the biggest two-month drop on record. The fall
was in part due to King Salman’s order to give government
employees and pensioners a two-month bonus after he
ascended to the throne of the world’s biggest oil exporter in
January.
- German retail sales fall in March
Retail sales in March fell by 2.3% in real adjusted terms
compared with February. This is significantly weaker than
the prediction by economists for a 0.4% increase on the
month.
- Mexico Keeps Key Rate at Record Low 3% as Economy
Still Weak
Banco de Mexico’s board kept the overnight rate at 3
percent as forecast by economists. After a surprise halfpoint reduction in June, policy makers have kept rates
unchanged to boost a $1.26 trillion economy that has
missed growth forecasts in eight of the past 11 quarters.
th
Tuesday April 28 , 2015
-
-
-
-
ECB Dominates Greece Saga as Dijsselbloem
Rejects Tsipras Charge
Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs
meetings of his euro-area counterparts, rebuffed
Tsipras’s accusation that he had reneged on his pledge
to Greece of access to ECB financing in return for an
extension of the country’s bailout agreement.
U.K. Growth Weakens in Blow to Cameron in Tight
Election Battle
The 0.3 percent pace was just half the rate of the
previous three months and marked the weakest reading
since the fourth quarter of 2012. Economists had
forecast growth of 0.5 percent.
Negative Rates Halt Payments in European AssetBacked Bonds
Bonds backed by loans to Spanish small businesses
became the first asset-backed securities to stop making
interest payments last week after benchmark rates
turned negative.
China Said to Consider PBOC Lending Tool to Help
Local Debt
China’s central bank is considering expanding a new
lending tool in an effort to bolster demand for localgovernment bonds, as policy makers seek to develop a
municipal debt market and avoid a credit crunch.
st
Friday May 1 , 2015
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Wednesday April 29 , 2015
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Greek Banks Get More Funds as ECB Weighs
Collateral Discount
The European Central Bank raised the amount of
emergency liquidity available to Greek banks, while
signaling that access to such funds may become more
difficult if bailout talks remain deadlocked.
Euro-Area Bank Lending Increases for First Time
Since 2012
Bank lending increased 0.1 percent in March from a year
earlier. Loans had posted annual declines in every
month since May 2012. Lending climbed 0.2 percent
from February.
Click on title to view the full story.
Thailand Unexpectedly Cuts Rate After Growth Forecast
Cut
The Bank of Thailand lowered its one-day bond repurchase
rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 1.5 percent on
Wednesday, a move predicted by only two of 20 economists
in a Bloomberg survey.
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U.K. manufacturing PMI falls to seven-month low
The Purchasing Managers' Index released Friday by Markit
Economics Ltd. fell to 51.9 from 54.0 in March. A reading
above 50 means the sector continues to expand, but the
slower pace of growth disappointed economists, who had
forecast manufacturing to accelerate.
China manufacturing activity holds steady
China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
stood at 50.1 in April, unchanged from March. The April PMI
beat the median 50.0 forecast.
China official nonmanufacturing gauge softens
China's official nonmanufacturing Purchasing Managers'
Index, a gauge of activity outside factory floors, fell to 53.4 in
April from 53.7 in March.
South Korea exports fall 8.1% in April
Exports declined 8.1% from a year earlier to $46.22 billion,
following a revised 4.3% drop in March. The April reading
compares with the median 6.3% decline forecast.
The Week at a Glance
S&P/TSX WEEKLY PERFORMERS
S&P/TSX weekly best performers
18.81%
Sherritt International Corp (S) 0
Lundin Mining Corp (LUN) 0
17.01%
Tahoe Resources Inc (THO) 0
16.97%
Capstone Mining Corp (CS) 0
15.97%
Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd (PPY) 0
15.80%
Surge Energy Inc (SGY) 0
15.73%
Black Diamond Group Ltd (BDI) 0
11.89%
Detour Gold Corp (DGC) 0
11.05%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) 0
10.72%
HudBay Minerals Inc (HBM) 0
10.15%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
S&P/TSX weekly worst performers
0
-4.82%
Brookfield Property Partners LP (BPY.un)
0
-4.95%
Sierra Wireless Inc. (SW)
Descartes Systems Group Inc/The (DSG)
-5.40%
0
Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (ITP)
-5.52%
0
0
-6.02%
Ensign Energy Services Inc (ESI)
0
-7.31%
CGI Group Inc (GIB.a)
0
-7.47%
RMP Energy Inc (RMP)
0
-8.99%
Jean Coutu Group PJC Inc/The (PJC.a)
0
-9.91%
Open Text Corp (OTC)
-10%
0
-5.74%
Canadian Utilities Ltd (CU)
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
The performance is calculated from the close of Friday’s previous week until Friday 11:30 a.m. of this week.
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research
The Week at a Glance
NBF RATINGS & TARGET PRICE CHANGES
Company
Symbol
AGF Management Ltd.
AGF.B
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd
AEM
AltaGas Ltd.
American Hotel Income Properties REIT LP
Current Rating
Previous Rating
Current
Target
Previous
Target
Closing
Price
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$8.50
C$9.00
C$7.72
Outperform
Sector Perform
C$44.00
C$44.00
C$36.52
ALA
Outperform
Outperform
C$50.00
C$52.00
C$41.00
HOT.UN
Outperform
Restricted
C$12.50
Restricted
C$10.73
ARC Resources Ltd.
ARX
Outperform
Outperform
C$27.00
C$28.00
C$24.69
ATCO Ltd.
ACO.X
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$51.00
C$54.00
C$45.73
BCE Inc.
BCE
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$53.00
C$52.00
C$53.19
Canadian Oil Sands Limited
COS
Underperform
Underperform
C$11.00
C$8.00
C$13.11
Canadian Utilities Limited
CU
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$45.00
C$47.00
C$39.20
Canam Group Inc.
CAM
Outperform
Outperform
C$17.00
C$16.50
C$13.72
Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust CHP.UN
Sector Perform
Outperform
C$12.00
C$12.00
C$11.20
CI Financial Corp.
CIX
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$37.00
C$36.00
C$35.46
Constellation Software Inc.
CSU
Underperform
Sector Perform
C$450.00
C$450.00
C$473.00
DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd.
DRT
Outperform
Outperform
C$11.00
C$9.00
C$7.89
Fiera Capital Corp.
FSZ
Outperform
Outperform
C$17.00
C$16.00
C$13.72
Genworth MI Canada Inc.
MIC
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$38.00
C$37.00
C$35.15
Gibson Energy Inc.
GEI
Outperform
Outperform
C$35.00
C$34.00
C$27.82
Horizon North Logistics Ltd.
HNL
Outperform
Outperform
C$4.00
C$3.75
C$3.35
IGM Financial Inc.
IGM
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$50.00
C$48.00
C$45.63
Interfor Corp.
IFP
Outperform
Outperform
C$21.00
C$22.00
C$17.27
Jean Coutu Group (PJC) Inc., The
PJC.A
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$26.00
C$27.00
C$23.48
Lundin Mining Corporation
LUN
Outperform
Outperform
C$7.00
C$6.50
C$6.00
Midas Gold Corp.
MAX
Restricted
New Gold Inc.
NGD
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$5.30
C$5.60
C$4.05
NuVista Energy
NVA
Outperform
Restricted
C$10.00
Restricted
C$8.94
Orezone Gold Corporation
ORE
Outperform
Outperform
C$0.85
C$0.95
C$0.41
Penn West Exploration
PWT
Underperform
Underperform
C$2.50
C$2.00
C$3.00
Stella-Jones Inc.
SJ
Outperform
Outperform
C$48.00
C$42.50
C$43.49
Suncor Energy Inc.
SU
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$43.00
C$40.00
C$39.29
Surge Energy Inc.
SGY
Outperform
Restricted
C$5.00
Restricted
C$4.39
Thomson Reuters Corporation
TRI
Outperform
Sector Perform
C$56.00
C$50.00
C$49.57
TORC Oil & Gas
TOG
Restricted
TransAlta Corp
TA
Underperform
Underperform
C$11.50
C$11.00
C$12.00
Uni-Select Inc
UNS
Outperform
Outperform
C$46.00
C$45.00
C$42.00
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.
WDO
Outperform
Whitecap Resources Inc.
WCP
Outperform
Restricted
C$18.50
Restricted
C$14.95
Yamana Gold Inc.
YRI
Outperform
Outperform
C$8.00
C$8.25
C$4.61
C$0.43
Restricted
C$10.50
Restricted
C$1.15
C$1.65
The Week at a Glance
NBF ACTION IDEAS
BOYD GROUP (BYD.UN) LAST PRICE: $51.51 RATING: OUTPERFORM TARGET PRICE: $58.00
COMPANY PROFILE
Boyd Group is one of the largest operators of automotive collision repair service centres in North America, with
repair centres in the four Western Canadian provinces and fifteen US states.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
NBF reiterated its Outperform rating and $58.00 target price on Boyd Group (BYD.un) given the company’s
capacity to finance growth, its recurring and visible cash flows, its balance sheet health, its leading market
position, and industry consolidation opportunity. The stock has been a consistent performer and remains amongst
the most compelling within NBF’s diversified yield universe.
Boyd Group (BYD.un) is scheduled to report Q1 2015 earnings on Tuesday May 12th. NBF is forecasting Q1
revenue of $255 mln (vs. $184 mln Q1/14), adj. EBITDA of $19.7 mln (vs. $15 mln) and DCPU of $0.82 reflecting
a 13% payout ratio (vs. $0.56 and 21%). The y/y increase in revenue, adj. EBITDA & DCPU is due to the multilocation acquisitions of Dora, Netcost, Collex, Champ's & Craftmaster (expecting combined $50 mln revenues),
new single store developments/acquisitions (projecting ~$9 mln incremental top-line) and organic growth.
NBF forecasts +1% y/y Canadian SSSG, in-line with the portfolio's generally flat 2014 performance. For the US
we forecast +6% SSSG including FX, down from the 7.5% 2014 average as BYD is facing more difficult comps
given Q1/14's extreme weather (particularly the NE) that was not repeated to the same extent this year. FX will
still represent a meaningful tailwind for BYD (~85% US operations but C$ reporter).
The focal points for Q1 include: 1) profitability, which NBF forecasts will be down 30 bps y/y to 7.9% adj. EBITDA
margins, as the lower margin glass franchise represents a larger component of BYD's business; 2) integration of
BYD's active LTM acquisitions; and 3) insights into BYD's near-term acquisition strategy, and how aggressive it
plans to deploy its >$150 million in available liquidity.
NBF’s 2016 forecasts assumes 12-14% growth in top line and EBITDA (to $1.2 bln and $97 mln, respectively),
owing to: 1) $60 mln of acquisitions closing throughout 2015 and another $60 mln in 2016 (both single and multistore); 2) 3% SSSG from the U.S. portfolio and 0-1% from Canada; and 3) stable to slightly improving profitability
(glass franchise integration and an operating efficiency rollout across the collision repair portfolio).
BOYD GROUP
VALUATION
NBF’s $58.00 price target implies ~11x 2016e EV/EBITDA and ~14x P/CF. The target price implies a ~14% total
return.
The Week at a Glance
NEW FLYER INDUSTRIES (NFI) LAST PRICE: $14.32 RATING: OUTPERFORM TARGET PRICE: $15.50
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in Winnipeg, Manitoba, New Flyer Industries (NFI-TSX) is a leading manufacturer of heavy-duty
transit buses in North America, as well as a comprehensive provider of aftermarket parts and service.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
NBF reiterated its Outperform rating and $15.50 target price on New Flyer Industries (NFI). The target price
implies a ~13% total return. NFI shares a number of characteristics consistent with high yield equities that NBF
rates Outperform: 1) recurring, visible revenues and transparent cash flows; 2) a defensive service offering; 3) a
dominant market position; 4) reasonable financial health; and 5) a high cash flow/low capex model conducive to
paying sizeable distributions/dividends.
NFI is scheduled to report Q1 2015 earnings on May 6th and will host its conference call on May 7th. NBF is
forecasting Q1 revenue of US$353 mln (vs. US$324 mln in Q1/14), adj. EBITDA of US$23.2 mln (vs. US$19.7
mln) and DCPS of US$0.21 reflecting a 57% payout ratio (vs. US$0.17 / 76% last
year).Consensus forecasts are in-line with NBF, the Street projectingUS$349 mln top-line and US$26 mln
EBITDA.
NBF forecasts average bus pricing of US$460k/EU in Q1, up 2% y/y given last quarter’s robust US$495k
(favorable sales mix of proportionately more hybrids and articulated units) although down sequentially given
seasonal pricing trends. NFI delivered 572 units in Q1, up from 554 last year, contributing to NBF’s manufacturing
top-line forecast of US$213 mln (vs. US$203 mln Q1/14) & EBITDA of US$7 mln (vs. US$4.4 mln Q1/14). After
years of generally depressed manufacturing profitability, given contracts signed during the economic
downturn management believes manufacturing margins can improve y/y 2015 (as reflected with NBF’s Q1
3.3% forecast vs. 2.1% a year ago). Market stabilization, deliveries and pricing are tracking well.
Aftermarkets revenue and EBITDA are forecast to be up modestly to US$73 mln & US$11.9 mln, which could
prove conservative given ongoing momentum from this portfolio as a result of the CTA midlife overhaul
program and ongoing benefits from last year's acquisitions of Orion and NABI.
NBF’s 2016 estimates project +9% y/y growth in EBITDA to $121 mln for 2016, reflecting continued
improvements in the margin quality of NFI’s bus manufacturing order book as well as steady gains from
aftermarkets (CTA contract ends mid-2015 but other opportunities persist).
NEW FLYER INDUSTRIES
VALUATION
NBF’s $15.50 target implies ~8.5x 2016e EV/EBITDA and ~10.5x P/CF, a discount to TSX diversified yield
equities NBF expects will continue to narrow as NFI's earnings momentum rebounds.
The Week at a Glance
THOMSON REUTERS CORP. (TRI) CLOSING PRICE: $49.57
$56.00
RATING: OUTPERFORM
TARGET PRICE:
COMPANY PROFILE
Thomson Reuters is the world’s leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. With
headquarters in NY and major operations in London and Eagan, Minnesota, the company employs more than
50,000 people in 93 countries. Woodbridge Inc. (controlled by the Thomson Family) controls 457.8 million shares
(55% of equity).
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
NBF upgraded Thomson Reuters (TRI) to Outperform and increased its target price to $56.00 (from
$50.00) following the recent pullback in the stock price and solid Q1 2015 results. The new target price
implies a ~16% total return. NBF reviewed its valuation metrics and saw them as too conservative given peer
valuations, the context of TRI’s historical 11.0x forward EBITDA multiple that’s seeing upside, and signs of
improving trends after a lengthy retooling process that continues to evolve. In NBF’s view these improving trends
and better results ahead will now drive the stock steadily higher.
TRI’s Q1 revenue was down 2.7% y/y to $3.044 billion and was below NBF’s $3.076 billion, EBITDA as reported
fell 2.1% y/y to $803 million vs. NBF estimate of $821 million. EBITDA ex-charges was -3.3% y/y with margins of
26.4% vs. 26.5%. EPS was $0.44 vs. NBF’s $0.46. FX was a material headwind. Ex-FX, revenue was up 2%,
EBITDA was up 2.7% ex-charges last year with margins up 30 bps to 26.8% and adjusted EPS at $0.50. For
f2015, NBF decreased its revenue forecast to $12.389 billion (-1.7%) from $12.614 billion, lowered EBITDA to
$3.458 billion (+0.3% ex-charges in 2014) from $3.544 billion, and pushed EPS down to $2.00 from $2.10. NBF
reduced its f2016 revenue expectation to $12.683 billion (+2.4%) from $12.846 billion, lowered EBITDA to $3.725
billion (+7.7%) vs. $3.765 billion, and decreased EPS to $2.31 from $2.35.
NBF’s positive view on TRI is based on the following:
Multi-year transformation of company steadily evolving: From an organization that skewed more toward a
conglomerate, management is striving to re-orientate the company toward a more streamlined enterprise that has
a cohesive strategy, more focused offering to clients, better communication across businesses, and improved
leveraging of resources.
Improving Trends: F&R won’t see top-line growth this year, especially in the face of rising FX headwinds, while a
30% EBITDA margin may only come by year’s end. Still, signs of improvement are evident in organic trends
(positive net sales for the last 4 quarters) and margins ex-FX, with a clear foundation being laid for a better 2016.
In Legal, The Westlaw Classic platform will be retired in H2/15 as the migration to WestlawNext gets completed
and while organic growth likely hit a high in Q1 for 2015, organic trends are improving and margins should be flat
for the year after a Q1 pullback. Tax & Accounting continues to perform at a healthy clip and continues to deliver
high single digit gains, with IP&S working through a turnaround.
Cost-cutting to drive margins ahead of revenue growth: In the absence of organic revenue growth of late in
the face of evolving top-line pressures, especially in Financial & Risk, Thomson Reuters continues to push harder
on streamlining operations and improving margins to gain even greater leverage if and when organic growth
materializes. After eliminating 2,500 positions in 2013, the company announced accelerated cost reduction
actions with Q3/13 reporting with a further headcount reduction of 3,000 expected to produce at least $250 million
in run-rate savings by 2015. An extra $400 million in reduced expenses is being targeted through 2017.
Growing cash returns to shareholders – dividend & NCIB: With an expected halving of M&A-related spending
post-2013 after averaging $1.3 billion in the prior three years, TRI returned $2.1 billion to shareholders in 2014
consisting of $1.0 billion of share repurchases and $1.1 billion of dividends. To accommodate the buyback, TRI
increased its target leverage ratio to 2.5x from 2.0x with the reporting of Q3/13 results. At the end of Q1/15,
leverage stood at 2.2x. The company has increased its dividend in each of the past 22 years, with the current
The Week at a Glance
dividend reflecting an 2015E payout of 63%. NBF assumes the company will repurchase 26.8 mln shares in 2015
and 15.0 million shares in 2016.
Attractive relative valuation: TRI is trading at EV/EBITDA of 11.7x 2015E and 10.7x 2016E vs. its peers trading
at an average EV/EBITDA of 12.7x 2015 consensus estimates and 11.5x 2016 consensus estimates On a P/E
basis, TRI trades at 20.6x 2015E and 17.9x 2016E vs. peers at 23.4x and 20.3x, respectively.
VALUATION
After revisions to NBF’s forecast and adjustments to its NAV where it moved segment multiples higher, NBF
raised its target to Cdn$56.00 based on its updated 2016E metric in its NAV still translated at 1.25. The target
implies price implies EV/EBITDA of 12.5x 2015E and 11.5x 2016E (was 10.5x) and P/Es of 22.5x and 19.5x.
Early gains in 2015 were due to FX. In NBF’s view improving trends and better results ahead will now drive the
stock steadily higher.
The Week at a Glance
STRATEGIC LIST - WEEKLY UPDATE
(April 27th – May 1st)
No Changes this Week:
Comments
Consumer Staples (Underweight)
Empire Company Ltd. (EMP.A)
NBF: Co-op Atlantic’s Board of Directors recommended to its member-owners that the organization divest to
Sobeys its food/fuel retail and wholesale assets. The Co-op Atlantic website indicates presence of 99 retail coops (grocery, general merchandise and country stores), as well as three buying clubs and 15 agricultural
societies; 33 other associated co-operatives are also members. NBF estimates that Co-op Atlantic’s annual
consolidated sales are in excess of $600 million, with food sales of ~$300 million (~$100 million from corporate
stores), and energy sales of ~$100 million; other sales make up the balance. At this point, media reports
indicate that only 10 food stores (corporate stores) would change hands, which would suggest very modest
earnings accretion. If all owner-members sign up with Sobeys (through wholesale supply agreements), it could
add $25-$30 million to Empire’s Food Retailing EBITDA and $0.09-$0.12 to EPS. NBF awaits further details
before updating its forecasts. NBF rates Empire Outperform with a $102.00 target price.
Consumer Discretionary (Underweight)
Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI)
NBF: Thomson reported Q1 results. Ongoing revenue was down to $3.044 billion largely due to F&R and was
below NBF’s $3.076 billion (consensus $3.051 billion). EBITDA as reported fell 2.1% to $803 million vs. NBF
estimate of $821 million (consensus $815 million). EBITDA ex-charges last year was -3.3% with margins of
26.4% vs. 26.5%. EPS was $0.44 vs. NBF’s $0.46 (consensus $0.45). FX was a material headwind. Ex-FX,
revenue was up 2%, EBITDA was up 2.7% ex-charges last year with margins up 30 bps to 26.8% and Adj EPS
at $0.50. Following revisions to NBF’s forecast and adjustments to its NAV where it moved segment multiples
higher, NBF increased its target to Cdn$56 from Cdn$50 based on its updated 2016E metric in its NAV still
translated at 1.25. NBF’s target implies EV/EBITDA of 12.5x 2015E and 11.5x 2016E (was 10.5x) and P/Es of
22.5x and 19.5x.
Credit Suisse: Thomson reported lighter financial results offset by positive trends in both F&R and Legal
organic growth. Highlights: 1) FX impact continues: Thomson saw FX continue to impact results with revenue
declining 3% y/y driven by -5% y/y FX impact. FX impacted EPS by $0.06 vs. our $0.02 estimate. 2) Organic
growth and net sales: With F&R organic growth roughly flat (vs. our -1% y/y estimate), Thomson is beginning to
benefit from positive net sales trends and growth in transaction volumes. We continue to expect organic growth
in F&R will be muted in 2015, but should grow in 2016 as Thomson completes the vast majority of its desktop
migrations. 3) Legal organic growth: Legal organic growth of 3% y/y was better than our 2.5% estimate as
strong growth in solutions offset the increasingly small impact from print declines. Despite some FX headwinds,
CS remains constructive on TRI's self-help story given the positive net sales at F&R and organic revenue trends
at Legal. We continue to believe that TRI will benefit from improved products, cost savings, and capital
allocation to drive double-digit EPS growth. CS reiterated its Outperform rating on TRI and increased its target
price to $44 from $43, which reflects slightly stronger long-term F&R margins driven by organic growth.
Energy (Overweight)
AltaGas Ltd. (ALA)
NBF: AltaGas reported normalized EBITDA of $178 mln, in line with NBF estimate and consensus of $174 mln,
while increasing its dividend 8.5% to $1.92/sh annually commencing with the June 2015 payment. With the
8.5% dividend increase coming in below its 12% forecast, NBF is once again trimming its annual dividend
growth rate assumption to 10%. Based on its revised annual dividend growth rate forecast, NBF’s target
declines $2 to $50; however, it continues to highlight a relatively attractive entry point into the name with ALA
trading at a 2016e P/AFFO multiple of 11.5x versus its peers at 13.7x – despite a relatively stable cash flow risk
profile, low AFFO payout ratio, attractive dividend growth profile and unrisked upside related to west coast
export opportunities. As such, NBF maintained its Outperform rating.
The Week at a Glance
ARC Resources Ltd. (ARX)
NBF: ARC reported strong Q1 results ahead of expectations and also announced a further 27% reduction to it
2015 budget to preserve the balance sheet. CFPS of $0.57 beat NBF’s estimate of $0.050/share and consensus
of $0.49/shr on record production of 120.3 mboe/d and lower costs across the board. The 2015 budget was cut
by a further 27% to $550 mln (from $750 mln) along with a 7% reduction in production guidance to a midpoint of
114.5 mboe/d, with the majority of the remaining capital to be directed to its Montney assets. ARX management
are true stewards of capital, and NBF believes this prudent approach will not only preserve the balance sheet
but ultimately lead to the best long-term returns for shareholders. NBF maintained its Outperform rating with a
lower target of $27.00 (was $28.00).
Credit Suisse: ARX reported CFPS of $0.57 for Q1, at the high end of street expectations and CS’ $0.51
estimate, ARX reported lower crude oil operating costs and lower G&A. Volumes and revenues were largely in
line with our expectations. Incorporating Q1 results and updated hedging, CS adjusted its EPS/CFPS estimates
for 2015/2016 as follows: $0.26/$2.39 to $0.32/$2.42 and $0.75/$3.10 to $0.74/$3.03 respectively. With only
modest changes to estimates CS leave its target unchanged at $28.00. Its estimates reflect US$57 WTI/
US$0.80 FX/ US$2.95 NYMEX for 2015 and US$72 WTI/ US$0.86 FX/ US$4.20 NYMEX for 2016. CS
continues to favor ARX for exposure to the prolific, low-cost, Montney play, which we believe should manifest in
continued strong production and reserves growth over time.
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
NBF: CNQ reports Q1 results before the open on May 7th. NBF is forecasting Q1 production of 903,749 boe/d
(+5% q/q) and CFPS of $1.12 (-48% q/q). Consensus CFPS is $1.22.
Crescent Point Energy (CPG)
NBF: CPG reports Q1 results before the open on May 7th. NBF is forecasting Q1 production of 154,680 boe/d
(+1% q/q) and CFPS of $0.97 (-25% q/q). Consensus CFPS is $0.98.
Financials (Market Weight)
Manulife Financial (MFC)
Credit Suisse: For MFC’s Q1 2015 results, Credit Suisse is forecasting core EPS of $0.42, up 15% from $0.37
in the prior year. In Q1 2015, MFC will begin to include $100 million of investment gains per quarter in its core
EPS figure, up from $50 million per quarter in 2014. On a reported basis, Credit Suisse is forecasting EPS of
$0.55 reflecting the favourable impact of equity markets, corporate spreads and swap rates partly offset by the
decline in interest rates. Credit Suisse is forecasting MCCSR to decline to 236% from 248% in Q4 to reflect the
recent acquisition of Standard Life Canada. MFC's ratio will decline by a further 10% on or before January 1,
2016 following its recent bancassurance partnership in Asia with DBS.
Information Technology (Overweight)
CGI Group Inc. (GIB.a)
NBF: CGI’s Q2 (March) F2015 Results: Total revenues of $2,601 mln missed NBF $2,673 mln estimate
(consensus $2,641 mln). Revenues incurred an FX hit of $7 mln y/y (expected ~$25 mln tailwind). Revenues
declined 3.5% y/y at constant currency vs. -6.0% y/y last quarter. Government accounted for 35% of revenues;
the highest in 10 quarters. Canada was the weakest segment as some contracts ran off (NBF believes Rio
Tinto), and the FinServ and Energy units build a pipeline. Bookings of $2.3 bln = book-to-bill ratio of 87%.
European/APAC book-to-bill was 95% offset by weakness in the U.S. (69%). New business accounted for 43%
of bookings (highest in five quarters). Operating cash flow was $285 mln ($0.88/sh) and included $26 mln of
integration-related disbursements ($53 mln remains). Free cash flow was $227 mln ($0.70/sh). Outstanding debt
declined to $2.1 bln from $2.5 bln last quarter. Net debt to EBITDA at 1.00x leaves the company with plenty of
room for M&A. NBF remains with Outperform rating; M&A next catalyst. Its DCF-based $58/sh target = P/E of
~16x on its C2015E estimates (vs. Accenture ~20x) and reflects no M&A. Management seemed to push out
organic revenue growth by a quarter (explaining the stock weakness). EPS should grow regardless.
Credit Suisse: CGI reported results that were lighter than expected as organic revenue headwinds offset
roughly in-line EBIT margins. Organic revenue declined -3.5% y/y vs. CS’ estimated -1.7% y/y, driven by
The Week at a Glance
softness in European growth. The slightly softer earnings were balanced by strong operating cash flow of $360
million (+3% y/y) and with cash flow conversion remaining stable above 100%. Organic revenue trends were
softer than expected, but sequentially organic revenue declines of -3.5% y/y improved vs. a -6.0% y/y decline in
Q1. Margin expansion continues with CGI reporting EBIT Margin growth of 140 bps (roughly in-line with CS’ 150
bps estimate). U.S. margin expanded 940 bps, driven by the lapping of ACA costs but also from new business in
financial services and government verticals. While organic trends were disappointing, the sequential
improvement reinforces CS’ view that trends will continue to improve in H2.15. Continued margin momentum in
U.S. gives CS confidence that additional expansion is possible beyond the lapping of the ACA impact. CS’
2016/2017 EPS increases to $3.42/$3.52 from C$3.39/C$3.46 as it updated its model to reflect stronger
margins, which offset weaker organic growth. As CS rolls over its valuation, its target price increases to $57.00
(from $54) to reflect these changes.
DH Corp. (DH)
NBF: DH reported Q1 2015 adjusted revenue of $297 mln (vs. $283 mln est. & $276 mln Q1/14), adj. EBITDA
of $87 mln (vs. $84 mln est. & $79 mln Q1/14) and full capex expensed DCPS of $0.47 reflecting a 69% payout
(vs. $0.54 / 60% est. & $0.55/58% Q1/14). Results were similarly in line with the Street’s $294 mln top line and
$84 mln EBITDA estimates. The $1.6 billion acquisition of Fundtech acquisition to closed this week. NBF
maintained its view that as a larger percentage of DH’s contribution comes from fintech there is the potential for
its valuation to continue to re-rate higher. This is on account of the differential between these types of
companies (U.S. fintech peers typically trading at 13x+ forward EV/EBITDA) versus more traditional comps to
DH’s legacy domestic businesses (TSX diversified high yield equities ~9.5x forward EV/EBITDA & U.S.
business outsourcing peers ~8x). After adjusting for Q1 takeaways, NBF forecasts are largely unchanged, and it
reiterated its Outperform rating and $47 target price.
Materials (Market Weight)
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM)
NBF: AEM Q1 f2015 adj EPS of US$0.15 beat expectations (NBF est. US$0.08; cons. US$0.10). CFPS before
working capital adj. of US$0.82 also beat (NBF est. US$0.74 cons. US$0.77). AEM reported Q1/15 sales of
385k oz (NBF est. 386k oz) at total cash costs of US$588/oz Au (NBF est. of US$642/oz). AEM’s beat on
financials wa buoyed by strong production and lower cash costs with contributions across AEM’s portfolio, most
notably Pinos Altos. NBF’s previously expected back-end loaded year remains in place, though is mitigated
somewhat by the Q1/15 performance and read-throughs for a carry over into Q2/15. Production guidance of 1.6
mln oz for the year remains unchanged, though in NBF’s view is somewhat de-risked after the Q1 beat. Amaruq
results remain positive as AEM drilling continues. NBF upgraded AEM to Outperform (was Sector Perform) and
maintained its $44.00 target price.
Credit Suisse: Q1/15 adj. EPS of US$0.15 was above CS estimate of US$0.09, with the variance due to lower
than expected costs. AEM sold 19koz less than it produced, which would have added a further ~$0.01 to EPS.
AEM’s operations were strong on production and costs: Gold production of 404koz was above CS est. of
391koz. Total cash costs of US$588/oz were below CS est. of US$632/oz. AISC of $804/oz were below CS est.
of US$925/oz, benefitting from lower cash cost as well as seasonally lower Q1 capex. AEM reiterated its 2015
guidance, with gold production at 1.60Moz, cash costs of US$610-$630/oz and AISC of US$880-$900/oz. AEM
also reiterated capex guidance of US$481 mln, with spending expected to pick up vs. Q1's $82.9 mln. AEM
continues to be one of CS’ top picks in the gold space due to strong FCF, exploration focus, good balance
sheet, de-risked 2015 outlook and growth in the golds. AEM highlighted positive progress on its organic
opportunities at Amaruq, Kittila and Goldex deep, which could extend LOM and add NAV and in CS’ view is not
fully reflected in the current valuation. To reflect Q1 results CS raised its 2015-17 EPS estimates to
US$0.61/$0.99/$1.10 from US$0.45/$0.93/$1.06, respectively. CS rates AEM Outperform with an unchanged
$42.00 target price.
Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN)
NBF: Lundin Mining released strong Q1/15 financial results, reporting EPS of US$0.10, ahead of NBF Estimate
and consensus at US$0.05 and US$0.06, respectively. Operating CFPS of US$0.31 also exceeded NBF
forecast of US$0.22 and consensus at US$0.21. NBF notes that the financial results were positively impacted
by another solid operational performance, with production across all metals exceeding its expectations, with the
exception of zinc. Toward that end, Lundin increased its production guidance for copper and nickel, while
reducing its cost projections for Neves-Corvo, Zinkgruvan and Aguablanca. With the potential for further
improvements in the company’s operational outlook following the completion of a revised mine plan for
The Week at a Glance
Candelaria in Q3/15, NBF continues to view Lundin as an operationally lower-risk and financially stable
alternative within the base metals sector. NBF maintained its Outperform rating at a revised target price of $7.00
(was $6.50).
Credit Suisse: LUN reported adjusted 1Q15 FD EPS of $0.08 vs. CS’ $0.03 on stronger copper sales and
lower costs at Candelaria, Neves-Corvo and Eagle mines. 1Q15 attributable copper production (excl. Tenke) of
64Kt was higher vs. our 53Kt with strong performance at Candelaria, Neves-Corvo and Eagle. LUN’s FY15
guidance on copper production remains largely unchanged and nickel production +3%. Average copper cash
cost guidance down to US$1.50/lb (from US$1.56/lb) on more favorable F/X assumptions. Average nickel cash
cost guidance down to US$2.38/lb (from US$2.57/lb). Capex guidance unchanged at $400 mln. Distributions
from Tenke are now expected at $20 mln (from $35 mln). CS continues to view LUN as an attractively valued
diversified base metals play, with positive free cash flow, and a conservative balance sheet relative to peers.
3.0x on FY16 EV/EBITDA relative to the peer average of 5.5x. CS revised f2015e EPS of $0.48 (from $0.40)
reflect 1Q15 results and updated f2015 guidance. CS maintained its Outperform rating and $7.00 target price.
Utilities (Underweight)
Canadian Utilities – (CU)
NBF: Canadian Utilities Ltd. reported adj. Q1 EPS of $0.67 (excl. one-time regulatory charges of -$0.17), shy of
NBF’s estimate of $0.70 and consensus of $0.69 owing largely to lower contributions from its 24.5% interest in
ATCO Structures & Logistics. CU is currently pursuing $5.8 bln of organic growth projects through 2017, of
which $5.1 bln will be targeted towards its regulated Utilities business. That said, in late Q1 2015, the AUC
(Alberta Utilities Commission) released its decision on the GCOC (Generic Cost of Capital) and PBR
(Performance Based Regulation) Capital Tracker proceedings – resulting in a retrospective decrease to the
allowable ROE to 8.3% (was 8.75%) and a 1% reduction across the board to equity thickness from 2013 to
2015, and will remain in place on an interim basis for 2016 onwards.
Reflecting the revised allowable ROE, NBF’s 2016e EPS (FD) and AFFO/sh (FD) declines $0.16 (6%) and
$0.24 (5%) to $2.39 and $3.92 – representing an EPS and AFFO payout ratio of 54% and 33%, remaining well
below the low-payout group average of 78% and 41%. As such, NBF continues to forecast ample room for
continued double-digit dividend growth and continue to call for a 10% increase to $1.30/sh beginning Q1 2016.
NBF continues to rate CU Outperform and lowered its target price to $45.00 from $47.00
Credit Suisse: Canadian Utilities reported headline Q1 2015 EPS of $0.61 and an adj. EPS of $0.64/sh,
missing CS estimate of $0.68. The miss was primarily due to lower contribution from the Energy and Corporate
segments. In the near to medium term, CS continues to believe Mexico will supplement CU's growth from the
core Canadian utilities businesses. In the current commodity landscape, CS continues to be comfortable with
CU's Alberta centric exposure. With the long-dated nature of most of its coverage universe, CS does not place
undue emphasis on quarterly earnings results. CS’ investment thesis is intact: CU is benefitting from large
organic growth in its Alberta base regulated utilities segment. CS believes the growth in Alberta will be
supplemented by organic growth in Australia and Mexico. CS rates CU Outperform with a $46.00 target price.
Source: NBF Research, Veritas Research, Credit Suisse Research, Bloomberg, Thomson One
The Week at a Glance
NBF STRATEGIC LIST
NBF Strategic List (May 1, 2015)
WEIGHT* (%)
Ticker
Consumer Discretionary
Gildan Activewear
GIL
Thomson Reuters Corp.
TRI
Consumer Staples
Empire Company Ltd.
EMP'A
George Weston Ltd.
WN
Energy
AltaGas Ltd.
ALA
ARC Resources Ltd.
ARX
Can. Natural Resources Ltd.
CNQ
Crescent Point Energy Corp.
CPG
Enbridge Inc.
ENB
Inter Pipeline Ltd.
IPL
Financials
Bank of Montreal
BMO
Cdn. Apartment Properties REITCAR.un
Element Financial Corp.
EFN
H&R REIT
HR.un
Manulife Financial Corp.
MFC
Royal Bank of Canada
RY
Toronto Dominion Bank
TD
Health Care
Industrials
TransForce Inc.
TFI
WestJet Airlines Ltd.
WJA
Information Technology
CGI Group Inc.
GIB.A
DH Corp.
DH
Materials
Agnico Eagle Resources Ltd.
AEM
Lundin Mining Corp.
LUN
Telecom Services
Rogers Communications
RCI'B
TELUS Corp
T
Utilities
Canadian Utilities Ltd.
CU
Northland Power Inc.
NPI
ADDITION ADDITION
DATE
PRICE
21-May-14 $
27-Feb-14 $
29.09
38.31
1-Apr-15
31-Jul-12
$
$
90.80
59.25
30-Oct-13
17-Dec-14
31-Jul-12
3-Oct-12
21-Jan-15
5-Jun-13
$
$
$
$
$
$
38.19
26.82
27.35
43.00
59.87
23.71
4-Mar-15
11-Feb-15
3-Sep-14
20-Aug-14
26-Mar-14
19-Jun-13
31-Jul-12
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
76.27
26.97
14.10
23.36
21.42
60.69
39.46
11-Feb-15 $
22-Oct-14 $
29.36
30.65
22-Aug-12 $
4-Feb-15 $
25.83
38.64
17-Dec-14 $
17-Dec-14 $
27.00
5.35
27-Nov-14 $
31-Jul-12 $
45.84
31.31
31-Jul-12
8-May-13
35.00
19.43
$
$
LAST
YIELD
Strategic
PRICE
(%)
BETA
List
6.0
EQY_DVD_YLD
EQY_BETA
$ 38.29
0.8
1.0
3.0
$ 50.05
3.2
0.8
3.0
3.4
$ 86.77
1.2
0.5
1.7
$ 99.87
1.7
0.7
1.7
25.7
$ 40.98
4.7
0.8
4.3
$ 24.70
4.9
1.2
4.3
$ 39.64
2.3
1.6
4.3
$ 31.38
8.8
1.2
4.3
$ 63.38
2.9
0.8
4.3
$ 31.45
4.7
0.8
4.3
35.8
$ 79.26
4.0
0.8
5.1
$ 29.13
4.0
0.6
5.1
$ 17.54
0.0
0.9
5.1
$ 23.19
5.8
0.7
5.1
$ 22.19
2.8
1.4
5.1
$ 80.49
3.8
0.9
5.1
$ 56.13
3.6
0.9
5.1
8.5
$ 27.20
2.5
1.0
4.3
$ 27.70
2.0
0.7
4.3
3.2
$ 51.38
0.0
0.8
1.6
$ 41.80
3.1
0.8
1.6
11.0
$ 39.12
1.0
1.1
5.5
$
6.33
0.0
2.0
5.5
4.3
$ 43.24
4.4
0.7
2.2
$ 41.86
3.8
0.7
2.2
2.1
$ 38.11
3.1
0.7
1.1
$ 17.11
6.3
0.7
1.1
SPTSX NOTES**
6.3
3.6
22.3
34.6
5.2
8.2
2.5
10.6
4.6
2.2
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson One (Priced May 1, 2015 at 10:52 am EDT)
* Individual position weights reflect an adjustment for Health Care. The Health Care weighting has been reallocated to sectors rated "overweight"
with any remaining weight reallocated proportionally to the remaining sectors. As such, the individual position weights will exceed the total sector
weights and may not sum to 1
**R = Restricted Stocks - Stocks placed under restriction while on The NBF Strategic List will remain on the list, but noted as Restricted in
accordance with compliance requirements
The Week at a Glance
CREDIT SUISSE – U.S. FOCUS LIST
CREDIT SUISSE - U.S.FOCUS LIST
Energy
Devon Energy Corp.
Marathon Oil Corp.
Materials
Sealed Air Corp.
Industrials
Canadian Pacific Railways
United Continental Holdings, Inc.
Tesla Motors, Inc.
Allison Transmission
Consumer Discretionary
Marriott International
Hanesbrands, Inc.
Dunkin' Brands
Consumer Staples
Procter & Gamble
Mondelez
Heath Care
Aetna
Bristol-Myers Squibb
Financials
Affiliated Managers Goup
Boston Properties, Inc.
JPMorgan Chase & Co
Information Technology
Micron Technology Inc.
Facebook Inc.
Telecomm. Services
Utilities
Est. total
Return Date Added*
Ticker
Price
Target Dividend Yield
DVN-US
MRO-US
$68.23
$30.82
$80.00
$36.00
$0.96
$0.84
1.41%
2.73%
18.7%
19.5%
09/Apr/15
09/Apr/15
SEE-US
$46.26
$53.00
$0.52
1.12%
15.7%
03/Jun/13
CP-US
UAL-US
TSLA-US
ALSN-US
$191.77
$60.52
$226.31
$30.53
$227.00
$98.00
$290.00
$36.00
$1.16
$0.00
$0.00
$0.60
0.60%
0.00%
0.00%
1.97%
19.0%
61.9%
28.1%
19.9%
27/May/14
09/Oct/14
09/Oct/14
20/Oct/14
MAR-US $80.68
HBI-US
$31.21
DNKN-US $52.17
$93.00
$32.50
$58.00
$0.80
$0.40
$1.06
0.99%
1.28%
2.03%
16.3%
5.4%
13.2%
22/Oct/13
09/Oct/14
09/Apr/15
PG-US
$79.83 $105.00
MDLZ-US $38.51 $42.00
$2.65
$0.60
3.32%
1.56%
34.9%
10.6%
23/Jan/14
22/Oct/15
AET-US
BMY-US
$107.50 $124.00
$64.36 $70.00
$1.00
$1.48
0.93%
2.30%
16.3%
11.1%
09/Jan/14
28/Oct/13
AMG-US $227.62 $270.00
BXP-US $133.12 $154.00
JPM-US $63.40 $75.00
$0.00
$2.60
$1.60
0.00%
1.95%
2.52%
18.6%
17.6%
20.8%
26/Aug/14
12/Nov/14
09/Apr/15
MU-US
FB-US
$0.00
$0.00
0.00%
0.00%
73.4%
31.7%
30/Jun/14
30/Apr/14
1.21%
24.4%
$28.83 $50.00
$78.99 $104.00
Average
Source: Credit Suisse, Thomson One
*Stocks added prior to 2012 have a December 31, 2011 date
The Week at a Glance
WEEK AHEAD
THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR
(May 4th – May 8th)
U.S. Indicators
Date
Time
Release
Period
Previous
Consensus
4-May
4-May
4-May
09:45
10:00
10:00
ISM New York
Factory Orders
Factory Orders Ex Trans
Apr
Mar
Mar
50
0.20%
0.80%
-2.20%
--
5-May
5-May
5-May
5-May
5-May
08:30
09:45
09:45
10:00
10:00
Trade Balance
Markit US Composite PMI
Markit US Services PMI
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
Mar
Apr F
Apr F
May
Apr
-$35.4B
57.4
57.8
51.3
56.5
-$39.9B
---56.2
6-May
6-May
6-May
6-May
07:00
08:15
08:30
08:30
MBA Mortgage Applications
ADP Employment Change
Nonfarm Productivity
Unit Labor Costs
May 1
Apr
1Q P
1Q P
-2.30%
189K
-2.20%
4.10%
-185K
-1.50%
3.80%
7-May
7-May
7-May
7-May
7-May
07:30
08:30
08:30
09:45
15:00
Challenger Job Cuts YoY
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Consumer Credit
Apr
May 2
Apr 25
May 3
Mar
6.40%
262K
2253K
44.7
$15.516B
----$15.750B
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
10:00
10:00
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
Change in Private Payrolls
Change in Manufact. Payrolls
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
Average Weekly Hours All Employees
Underemployment Rate
Change in Household Employment
Labor Force Participation Rate
Wholesale Inventories MoM
Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Mar
Mar
126K
-129K
-1K
5.50%
0.30%
2.10%
34.5
10.90%
34
62.70%
0.30%
-0.20%
223K
-215K
6K
5.40%
0.20%
-34.5
---0.30%
--
Period
Previous
Consensus
May 1
59.9
--
Canadian Indicators
Date
Time
4-May
10:00
Bloomberg Nanos Confidence
5-May
08:30
Int'l Merchandise Trade
Mar
-0.98B
--
6-May
10:00
Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA
Apr
47.9
--
7-May
08:30
Building Permits MoM
Mar
-0.90%
--
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
8-May
08:15
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
Housing Starts
Unemployment Rate
Net Change in Employment
Full Time Employment Change
Part Time Employment Change
Participation Rate
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
189.7K
6.80%
28.7K
-28.2
56.8
65.9
-------
Source : Bloomberg
Release
The Week at a Glance
S&P/TSX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR
th
Monday May 4 , 2015
COMPANY*
Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc
Ensign Energy Services Inc
MacDonald Dettwiler & Associates Ltd
SYMBOL
ENF
ESI
MDA
EPS ESTIMATE
0,42
0,105
1,469
SYMBOL
BXE
REI.un
BTE
SLF
RUS
PKI
AGU
K
PSI
IMG
MRE
PPL
NAL
KEY
GEI
AVO
FTS
FCR
WJA
EPS ESTIMATE
-0,105
0,42
0,104
0,768
0,354
0,235
0,332
0,006
0,205
-0,042
0,327
0,255
-0,037
0,439
0,225
0,207
0,617
th
Tuesday May 5 , 2015
COMPANY*
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd
RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust
Baytex Energy Corp
Sun Life Financial Inc
Russel Metals Inc
Parkland Fuel Corp
Agrium Inc
Kinross Gold Corp
Pason Systems Inc
IAMGOLD Corp
Martinrea International Inc
Pembina Pipeline Corp
Newalta Corp
Keyera Corp
Gibson Energy Inc
Avigilon Corp
Fortis Inc/Canada
First Capital Realty Inc
WestJet Airlines Ltd
1,001
The Week at a Glance
th
Wednesday May 6 , 2015
COMPANY*
Alaris Royalty Corp
Allied Properties Real Estate Investment
Trust
AuRico Gold Inc
Brookfield Asset Management Inc
Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners
LP/CA
Calloway Real Estate Investment Trust
Enbridge Inc
Enerflex Ltd
Finning International Inc
Franco-Nevada Corp
Granite Real Estate Investment Trust
Great Canadian Gaming Corp
Home Capital Group Inc
Husky Energy Inc
Intact Financial Corp
Linamar Corp
Loblaw Cos Ltd
Northern Property Real Estate Investment
Trust
Primero Mining Corp
Trilogy Energy Corp
Trinidad Drilling Ltd
Veresen Inc
SYMBOL
AD
EPS ESTIMATE
0,53
AP.un
AUQ
BAM.a
0,532
-0,046
BEP.un
CWT.un
ENB
EFX
FTT
FNV
GRT.un
GC
HCG
HSE
IFC
LNR
L
0,187
0,494
0,591
0,293
0,338
0,164
0,825
0,228
1,033
0,013
1,384
1,453
0,672
NPR.un
P
TET
TDG
VSN
0,539
-0,022
-0,213
0,053
0,064
The Week at a Glance
th
Thursday May 7 , 2015
COMPANY*
Alamos Gold Inc
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
Artis Real Estate Investment Trust
AutoCanada Inc
Black Diamond Group Ltd
Bombardier Inc
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
Canexus Corp
CCL Industries Inc
Chartwell Retirement Residences
CI Financial Corp
Cominar Real Estate Investment Trust
Cott Corp
Crescent Point Energy Corp
Crew Energy Inc
Dorel Industries Inc
Extendicare Inc
First Majestic Silver Corp
Great-West Lifeco Inc
HudBay Minerals Inc
Industrial Alliance Insurance & Financial
Services Inc
Magna International Inc
Manitoba Telecom Services Inc
Manulife Financial Corp
MEG Energy Corp
Pengrowth Energy Corp
Quebecor Inc
Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc
Secure Energy Services Inc
Sierra Wireless Inc
Silver Wheaton Corp
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc
TELUS Corp
Western Forest Products Inc
SYMBOL
AGI
AQN
AX.un
ACQ
BDI
BBD.b
CNQ
CUS
CCL.b
CSH.un
CIX
CUF.un
BCB
CPG
CR
DII.b
EXE
FR
GWO
HBM
EPS ESTIMATE
-0,015
0,192
0,361
0,153
0,164
0,053
-0,07
-0,013
1,68
0,19
0,495
0,456
-0,171
-0,126
-0,07
0,613
0,03
0,003
0,669
0,035
IAG
MG
MBT
MFC
MEG
PGF
QBR.b
RBA
SES
SW
SLW
SNC
T
WEF
0,912
1,105
0,439
0,427
-0,299
-0,004
0,436
0,148
0,067
0,174
0,164
0,412
0,67
0,032
SYMBOL
CAR.un
CGX
ERF
FVI
IGM
VET
EPS ESTIMATE
0,394
0,168
0,044
0,032
0,803
-0,063
th
Friday May 8 , 2015
COMPANY*
Canadian Apartment Properties REIT
Cineplex Inc
Enerplus Corp
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc
IGM Financial Inc
Vermilion Energy Inc
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research
*Companies of the S&P/TSX index expected to report. Stocks from the Strategic List are in Bold.
The Week at a Glance
S&P500 INDEX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR
th
Monday May 4 , 2015
COMPANY*
Anadarko Petroleum Corp
Cablevision Systems Corp
Cimarex Energy Co
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp
Comcast Corp
DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc
Dominion Resources Inc/VA
Dun & Bradstreet Corp/The
EOG Resources Inc
Henry Schein Inc
Loews Corp
Sysco Corp
Tenet Healthcare Corp
Tyson Foods Inc
Vornado Realty Trust
SYMBOL
APC
CVC
XEC
CTSH
CMCSA
DVA
DO
D
DNB
EOG
HSIC
L
SYY
THC
TSN
VNO
EPS ESTIMATE
-0,647
0,172
-0,379
0,695
0,738
0,896
0,415
0,964
1,231
0,009
1,267
0,705
0,413
0,312
0,723
1,188
SYMBOL
ALL
ADM
AIZ
CTL
DVN
DTV
DISCA
EA
EMR
EL
FISV
FOSL
FTR
HRS
HCA
HCP
ICE
K
MNK
MYL
NFX
NWSA
NBL
OKE
PXD
SRE
VMC
DIS
WEC
ZTS
EPS ESTIMATE
1,437
0,711
1,479
0,585
0,252
1,544
0,384
0,257
0,761
0,51
0,862
0,689
0,044
1,247
1,187
0,782
2,957
0,919
1,532
0,708
0,08
0,07
0,026
0,358
0,073
1,318
-0,153
1,098
0,826
0,363
th
Tuesday May 5 , 2015
COMPANY*
Allstate Corp/The
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co
Assurant Inc
CenturyLink Inc
Devon Energy Corp
DIRECTV
Discovery Communications Inc
Electronic Arts Inc
Emerson Electric Co
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The
Fiserv Inc
Fossil Group Inc
Frontier Communications Corp
Harris Corp
HCA Holdings Inc
HCP Inc
Intercontinental Exchange Inc
Kellogg Co
Mallinckrodt PLC
Mylan NV
Newfield Exploration Co
News Corp
Noble Energy Inc
ONEOK Inc
Pioneer Natural Resources Co
Sempra Energy
Vulcan Materials Co
Walt Disney Co/The
Wisconsin Energy Corp
Zoetis Inc
The Week at a Glance
th
Wednesday May 6 , 2015
COMPANY*
CF Industries Holdings Inc
Chesapeake Energy Corp
DENTSPLY International Inc
Essex Property Trust Inc
Expeditors International of Washington Inc
Keurig Green Mountain Inc
Kimco Realty Corp
Marathon Oil Corp
MetLife Inc
Motorola Solutions Inc
Occidental Petroleum Corp
Prudential Financial Inc
Spectra Energy Corp
Transocean Ltd
TripAdvisor Inc
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
Whole Foods Market Inc
SYMBOL
CF
CHK
XRAY
ESS
EXPD
GMCR
KIM
MRO
MET
MSI
OXY
PRU
SE
RIG
TRIP
FOXA
WFM
EPS ESTIMATE
4,615
0,038
0,573
2,251
0,484
1,049
0,352
-0,457
1,414
0,252
0,043
2,382
0,426
0,587
0,559
0,391
0,426
SYMBOL
AEE
APA
BDX
CA
CBS
CERN
MCHP
MHK
TAP
MNST
NVDA
PPL
PCLN
REGN
SNI
SIAL
TDC
EPS ESTIMATE
0,381
-0,595
1,535
0,498
0,75
0,449
0,662
1,598
0,449
0,684
0,332
0,684
7,7
2,71
0,916
1,081
0,412
SYMBOL
HCN
NRG
EPS ESTIMATE
1,039
0,19
th
Thursday May 7 , 2015
COMPANY*
Ameren Corp
Apache Corp
Becton Dickinson and Co
CA Inc
CBS Corp
Cerner Corp
Microchip Technology Inc
Mohawk Industries Inc
Molson Coors Brewing Co
Monster Beverage Corp
NVIDIA Corp
PPL Corp
Priceline Group Inc/The
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc
Scripps Networks Interactive Inc
Sigma-Aldrich Corp
Teradata Corp
th
Friday May 8 , 2015
COMPANY*
Health Care REIT Inc
NRG Energy Inc
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research
* Companies of the S&P500 index expected to report. Stocks from the Credit Suisse U.S. Focus List are in Bold.