Download İmalat Sanayi ve Sanayi Politikaları

Sanayi Politikaları
Kalkınma Bakanlığı
21 Mayıs 2015
MURAT YÜLEK
ISTANBUL TICARET ÜNİVERSİTESİ
İÇERİK
Sanayi Politikaları
• Neden?
• Nasıl?
İmalat Sanayi ve Sanayi Politikaları:
Neden?
• İmalat Sanayinin ürettiği pozitif dışsallıklar
• Dış ticaret ve cari açık sürdürülebilirliği
İmalat Sanayi Neden Önemli?
İmalat Sanayinin ürettiği pozitif dışsallıklar
Positive relationship between industrial growth and GDP growth especially
in the earlier stages of development: Other arguments
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Empirical relationship between the degree of industrialization and per capita GDP
Productivity is higher in manufacturing than in the agricultural sector. Transfer of resources from
agriculture to manufacturing provides a structural change bonus. Manufacturing offers ‘special
opportunities for capital accumulation.’ Capital accumulation can be more easily realized in spatially
concentrated manufacturing than in spatially dispersed agriculture.
Manufacturing enjoys economies of scale opportunities which are less available in agriculture and
services
Manufacturing offers opportunities for both embodied and disembodied technological progress.
Technological progress is concentrated in the manufacturing sector and diffuses from there to other
economic sectors such as services
Linkage and spill over effects are stronger in manufacturing than in agriculture or mining. Linkages
provide positive externalities to investments. Spill overs (disembodies knowledge flows between
sectors) are special cases of externalities of investment in knowledge and technology. Linkage and
spill over effects are presumed to be stronger within manufacturing than within other sectors. Linkage
and spill over effects between manufacturing and other sectors such as services and agriculture are
also very powerful.
Transfer of resources from services to manufacturing provides a structural change burden.
As the share of services in total GDP increases, aggregate per capita income growth will slow down.
As Engel’s Law states, as income rises, share of spending on agriculture falls and manufactured
products rises. So, for a country to benefit from this trend, it has to concentrate on manufacturing.
İmalat Sanayi Neden Önemli?
Some Bibliography on Manufacturing Sector including Emrpirical Tests of Kaldor’s Laws
ARISOY, İ. (2013). Kaldor Yasası Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Sanayi Sektörü ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisinin Sınanması. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve
İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1).
Atesoglu, H. S. (1993). Manufacturing and economic growth in the United States. Applied Economics, 25(1), 67-69.
Bautista, A. D. (2003). México´ s Industrial Engine of Growth: Cointegration and Causality. Revista Momento Economico, (126).
BEHESHTI, M., & Sadighnia, R. (2006). TESTING KALDOR'S ENGINE OF GROWTH HYPOTHESIS IN IRAN'S ECONOMY. IRANIAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH.
Bairam, E. (1991). Economic growth and Kaldor's law: the case of Turkey, 1925–78. Applied Economics, 23(8), 1277-1280.
Baily, M. N., & Bosworth, B. P. (2014). US Manufacturing: Understanding its Past and its Potential Future. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(1), 3-25.
Bernat, G. A. (1996). DOES MANUFACTURING MATTER? A SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC VIEW OF KALDOR'S LAWS*. Journal of Regional Science, 36(3), 463477.
Drakopoulos, S. A., & Theodossiou, I. (1991). Kaldorian approach to Greek economic growth. Applied Economics, 23(10), 1683-1689.
Felipe, J. (1998). The role of the manufacturing sector in Southeast Asian development: a test of Kaldor's first law. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 463485.Guo, D., Dall’erba, S., & Le Gallo, J. (2012). The Leading Role of Manufacturing in China’s Regional Economic Growth: A Spatial Econometric Approach of
Kaldor’s Laws. International Regional Science Review, 0160017612457779.
Fingleton, B., & McCombie, J. S. (1998). Increasing returns and economic growth: some evidence for manufacturing from the European Union regions.Oxford
Economic Papers, 50(1), 89-105.
Hansen, J. D., & Zhang, J. (1996). A Kaldorian approach to regional economic growth in China. Applied Economics, 28(6), 679-685.
Harris, R. I., & Lau, E. (1998). Verdoorn's law and increasing returns to scale in the UK regions, 1968–91: some new estimates based on the cointegration
approach. Oxford Economic Papers, 50(2), 201-219.
Kaldor, N. (1966). Causes of the slow rate of economic growth of the United Kingdom: an inaugural lecture. Cambridge University Press.
Kaldor, N. (1967). Strategic factors in economic development, Ithaca: State School of New York for Industrial and Labor Relations.
Knell, M. (2004). Structure change and the Kaldor-Verdoorn law in the 1990s.Revue d'économie industrielle, 105(1), 71-83.
Leon-Ledesma, M. A. (2000). Economic Growth and Verdoorn's law in the Spanish regions, 1962-91. International Review of Applied Economics, 14(1), 55-69.
Metcalfe, J. S., & Hall, P. H. (1983). THE VERDOORN LAW AND THE SALTER MECHANISM: A NOTE ON AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING
INDUSTRY*. Australian Economic Papers, 22(41), 364-373.
Necmi, S. (1999). Kaldor's growth analysis revisited. Applied Economics, 31(5), 653-660.
Pons-Novell, J., & Viladecans-Marsal, E. (1999). Kaldor's laws and spatial dependence: evidence for the European regions. Regional Studies, 33(5), 443-451.
Rayment, P. (1981). Structural change in manufacturing industry and the stability of the Verdoorn law. Economia Internazionale, 34, 104-122.
Szirmai, A., Naudé, W., & Alcorta, L. (Eds.). (2013). Pathways to Industrialization in the Twenty-First Century: New Challenges and Emerging Paradigms. Oxford
University Press.
Szirmai, A. (2012). Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23(4), 406-420.
Szirmai, A. (2013). “Manufacturing and Economic Development” in Szirmai, A., Naudé, W., & Alcorta, L. (Eds.) Pathways to Industrialization in the Twenty-First
Century: New Challenges and Emerging Paradigms. Oxford University Press.
Thirlwall, A. P. (1983). A plain man's guide to Kaldor's growth laws. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 345-358.
Thirlwall, A. P. (2006). Growth and development (Vol. 2). Palgrave Macmillan. pp. 115-121
Wells, H., & Thirlwall, A. P. (2003). Testing Kaldor's growth laws across the countries of Africa. African Development Review, 15(2‐3), 89-105.
Vaciago, G. (1975). Increasing returns and growth in advanced economies: a re-evaluation. Oxford Economic Papers, 232-239.
İmalat Sanayi Neden Önemli?
Later stages of development
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Manufacturing sector constitutes a great majority of the global trade. For resourcepoor and agriculturally non-convenient countries, manufacturing is the only way to
export (Yulek 2014, Baily and Bosworth, 2014)
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Critical reliance on imports of machinery manufacturing sector is risky for countries
as it reduces the countries protection from supply disruptions and may even cause
national security issues. Supply disruptions may emerge from exchange rate
fluctuations and supply disruptions even from disasters, embargoes (Baily and
Bosworth, 2014; 19)
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Manufacturing is often identified as a R&D intensive sector. Manufacturing that
remained in countries like USA is capital intensive and such countries are good in
manufacturing. (Baily and Bosworth, 2014; 19)
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Losses of manufacturing jobs proves difficult to transfer the jobless to other sectors.
In the USA, almost 6 million manufacturing jobs were lost between 2000 and now;
communities have lost a vital source of employment for those who have lost and
those young workers who could have worked in manufacturing. (Baily and Bosworth,
2014; 19)
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Neoclassical growth theory has generally neglected the role played by the sectoral
mix and structural change on aggregate growth. However, sectors are characterized World Trade Report 2014 (WTO)
by enormous differences in terms of technological change, inter-sectoral linkages
and the degree of scale economies. Shifting employment from low to high productive
sectors are still critical even for advanced countries where regional convergence is of
prime importance to decision makers including in southern European regions. So
industry can play a role here (Paci and Pigliaru, 1997).
• Comparing Ireland and Sweden, Andreosso-O'Callaghan and Lenihan (2011) found that Swedish manufacturing and
economy was more resilient to the crises due to its indigenous manufacturing firms (‘ability to master’ its own destiny).
They suggest that the degree of economic sovereignty (share of indigenous firms in the manufacturing industry) plays an
important role and is greatly shaped by industrial policies that emphasize indigenous industrial firms to decrease
vulnerability (due to increased independence) to shocks which affect the manufacturing sector. Indigenous firms are
more embedded into local economies and are less likely than MNEs to exit when the going gets tough.
İmalat Sanayi ve Sanayi Politikaları:
Nasıl?
• Genel kriterler
• Ülke başlangıç ‘serveti’
• Tarihi patika
• İşgücü özellikleri: bugün ve yarın
• Eğitim politikaları
İmalat Sanayi ve Sanayi Politikaları:
Nasıl?
•
Genel değil odaklı politikalar
• “Sektör seçimi” / “Stratejik Sektörler”
• Kriterler
• Dışsalıklar
• Öğrenme süreci ve potansiyeli
• Taşmalar
• Kamu malları
• Hedef sektörler (örnekler)
• Demiryolu araçları
• Havayolu araçları
• Tıbbi cihazlar
• Enerji cihazları
• Elektronik/görüntüleme
• Malzeme
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Ülke başlangıç ‘serveti’
Işgücü özellikleri: bugün ve yarın
• Eğitim politikaları
İmalat Sanayi ve Sanayi Politikaları:
Nasıl?
•
Kamu satın alma politikaları
• Sektör seçimi / hedef sektörler
• Eşgüdüm
• Merkezi yönetim/ yerel Yönetimler
• Merkezi yönetim birimleri arası
• Sektörler arası
• Askeri / sivil yönetim
İmalat Sanayi ve Sanayi Politikaları:
Nasıl?
Sanayi Politikaları ile eşgüdümlü Bilim, AR-GE ve Yenilikçilik (ve Eğitim)
Politikaları
• ‘Sıralama’
Figure 2. Level of Industrialization and
Appropriate Policy Response
Level of industrialization
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Traditional
Industrial
Policies
Science
Technology
and
Innovation
Policies
Cumulative Time
İmalat Sanayi ve Sanayi Politikaları:
Nasıl?
•
Dışa açıklık ve dışa açıklığın ‘iyi kullanılması’
Rank Exporters
Value Share in
(USD
world
billion) exports
Ran
k Importers
Annual
Value Share in percent
(USD
world age
billion) exports change
1
China
2,049
11.1
1
United States
2336
12.6
2
United States
1,546
8.4
2
China
1818
9.8
4
3
Germany
1,407
7.6
3
Germany
1167
6.3
-7
4
Japan
799
4.3
4
Japan
886
4.8
4
5
Netherlands
656
3.6
5
United Kingdom
690
3.7
2
6
France
569
3.1
6
France
674
3.6
-6
7
Korea, Republic of
548
3.0
7
Netherlands
591
3.2
-1
8
Russian Federation
529
2.9
8
Hong Kong, China
553
3.0
8
9
Italy
501
2.7
retained imports
140
0.8
6
10
Hong Kong, China
493
2.7
domestic exports
22
0.1
9
Korea, Republic of
520
2.8
-1
471
2.6
10
India
490
2.6
5
re-exports
3
Sanayi Politikaları ve İktisadi Planlama
Who Planned?
◦ Almost everyone including SSCB
◦ Europe
◦ USA: the non-planner (it has planned at both federal and state levels)
◦ Poor and richer economies
How they planned?
◦ Varying disguises, methods, approaches
◦ Official or unofficial
Sanayi Politikaları ve İktisadi Planlama
Why they planned: The Early Justifications
◦ To optimize the allocation of resources when markets were impeded by imperfections
arising from factors such as externalities or public goods
◦ Accelerating growth
◦ Shifting the economy into a new “expectational equilibrium” (A planning body may
form solid projections and share that information with private agents, as well as
government ministries)
◦ A policy coordination tool: Even in the context of no (or loose) economic planning,
policy coordination among various public and private agents is necessary to reduce
conflicting strategies, policies and actions, as well as to increase their synergies.
Economic planning could bring about short- and long-term policy coordination.
Sanayi Politikaları ve İktisadi Planlama
Why do we have state and state structures? The Developmental State
◦ Gerschenkron (1962) argued for concentrated government effort to accelerate
economic development in developing countries. Although concentration of resources
does not necessarily require planning, state-led development aims at transforming the
economy over a longer term, which would call for some kind of planning.
◦ Johnson (1982), among others, extended a similar concept under the term
“developmental state,” and argued for a state structure organized to implement a
transformation of the economy towards developmental objectives. In a developmental
state, the transformation process was to be managed by the planning agency.
Sanayi Politikaları ve İktisadi Planlama
Background: Some Taxonomy of Economic Planning
Sanayi Politikaları ve İktisadi Planlama
Industrial Policy: How is it related to Economic Planning?
Static vs dynamic government interventions: Ways to overrule the markets
◦ The key argument for economic planning is still valid: overcoming market
imperfections which takes multi-years and thus requires ‘plan’
◦ Same arguments applies to industrial policy
◦ … or STI policies
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