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August 23, 2013 Global Markets Minesweeper International Markets Analysis FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION German IFO indices, US consumer confidence index for August and US revised Q2 GDP are probably the key announcements of the following week. US consumer confidence index (27/8) for August and the final reading of University of Michigan confidence index (30/8) will probably be consistent with moderate expansion of the consumption in the US. Durable goods orders for July will be released on August 26. The PCE core index (30/8) has probably risen on a yearly basis in July at a pace indicative of subdued inflationary pressure. US revised GDP (29/8) will likely indicate higher GDP growth in the second quarter versus the first quarter. The S&P CaseShiller index (27/8) has likely increased in June for 17th consecutive month, suggesting that the housing market is rebounding. The S&P CaseShiller Home Price index indicates that the housing market is recovering. USA: S&P/CaseShiller 20 (yoy change), 2001 - 2013 % 20 15 10 5 0 ‐5 ‐10 ‐15 5/13 11/12 5/12 11/11 5/11 11/10 5/10 11/09 5/09 11/08 5/08 11/07 5/07 11/06 5/06 11/05 5/05 11/04 5/04 11/03 5/03 11/02 5/02 11/01 5/01 ‐20 Source: Bloomberg In the Eurozone, the Eurostat’s inflation estimate (30/8) for August is expected at 1.4% from 1.6% in July, still below the policy target of the ECB (close but below 2%) for 7th consecutive month. Eurozone economic confidence (30/8) may have risen in August at a high since March 2012. German IFO indices for August (27/8) will probably indicate that the economy is recovering. In the UK, the GfK consumer confidence index (30/8) is expected marginally higher in August compared to July. Swiss KOF leading indicator for August will be announced on August 30. In Japan, the industrial production (30/8) has likely risen in July for 5th month in the last 6 months. The National CPI data for July (30/8) may indicate some improvement in the fight against deflation in Japan. International Markets Analysis t. +30 210 326 8265, [email protected] International Markets Analysis Global Markets Minesweeper Event Risk Calendar, 26 - 30 August 2013 Monday 26/8 Period Survey Prior Corporate Service Px Index (YoY) Jul 0.4% 0.4% US Durable Goods Orders (ΜοΜ) Jul -3.6% 3.9% 26/8 15:30 US Durables Ex Transportation (ΜοΜ) Jul 0.5% -0.1% 26/8 15:30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (ΜοΜ) Jul 0.5% 0.9% 26/8 17:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Aug -- 4.4 Date Time Country 26/8 02:50 JN 26/8 15:30 Event UK markets closed (Spring Bank Holiday) Auctions GE Germany to Sell EUR3 Bln 364-Day Bills (12:30) Eco Event FI Bank of Finland Governor Liikanen will speak Tuesday 27/8 Period Survey Prior Small Business Confidence Aug -- 49.4 GE IFO Business Climate Aug 107.0 106.2 27/8 11:00 GE IFO Current Assessment Aug 110.8 110.1 27/8 11:00 GE IFO Expectations Aug 103.0 102.4 27/8 16:00 US S&P/CS 20 City SA (MoM) Jun 1.00% 1.05% 27/8 16:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 (YoY) Jun 11.90% 12.17% 27/8 17:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Aug -- -11 27/8 17:00 US Consumer Confidence Index Aug 79.3 80.3 27-30 AUG UK Nationwide House PX (MoM) Aug 0.6% 0.8% 27-30 AUG UK Nationwide House Px NSA (YoY) Aug 3.3% 3.9% Date Time Country 27/8 08:00 JN 27/8 11:00 Event Auctions JN Japan to Sell 20-Year Bonds (06:45) IT Italy to Sell 1.7% I/L 2018, 3.1% I/L 2026 & EUR3 Bln Zero 2015 Bonds (12:00) US U.S. to Sell USD34 Bln 2-Year Notes (20:00) Eco Event GE ECB member Asmussen speaks at forum (20:00) Wednesday 28/8 Period Survey Prior Import Price Index (MoM) Jul 0.3% -0.8% GE Import Price Index (YoY) Jul -2.5% -2.2% 28/8 09:00 SZ UBS Consumption Indicator Jul -- 1.44 28/8 09:00 GE GfK Consumer Confidence Sep 7.1 7.0 28/8 11:00 IT Retail Sales (MoM) Jun 0.0% 0.1% Date Time Country 28/8 09:00 GE 28/8 09:00 2 Event Global Markets Minesweeper International Markets Analysis 28/8 11:00 IT Retail Sales (YoY) Jun -- -1.1% 28/8 11:00 EC M3 Money Supply (YoY) Jul 2.1% 2.3% 28/8 13:00 UK CBI Reported Sales Aug -- 17 28/8 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Aug 23 -- -4.6% 28/8 17:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) Jul 0.1% -0.4% 28/8 17:00 US Pending Home Sales (YoY) Jul -- 9.1% Auctions US U.S. to Sell USD35 Bln 5-Year Notes (20:00) Eco Event JN BoJ Deputy Gorneror Iwata speaks (08:00) UK BoE Governor Carney speaks (14:45) Thursday 29/8 Period Survey Prior Retail Trade (YoY) Jul -0.1% 1.6% JN Retail Sales (MoM) Jul -1.3% -0.2% 29/8 02:50 JN Large Retailers' Sales Jul -0.5% 3.5% 29/8 09:45 FR Business Confidence Aug 96 95 29/8 10:00 SP GDP (QoQ) 2Q F -0.1% -0.1% 29/8 10:00 SP GDP (YoY) 2Q F -1.7% -1.7% 29/8 10:00 SP CPI EU Harmonised (YoY) Aug P 1.7% 1.9% 29/8 10:55 GE Unemployment Rate Aug 6.8% 6.8% 29/8 11:00 IT Consumer Confidence Index Aug 97.8 97.3 29/8 15:00 GE CPI (MoM) Aug P 0.1% 0.5% 29/8 15:00 GE CPI (YoY) Aug P 1.7% 1.9% 29/8 15:30 US GDP Annualized (QoQ) 2Q S 2.3% 1.7% 29/8 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Aug 23 -- 336K 29/8 15:30 US Personal Consumption 2Q S 1.8% 1.8% 29/8 15:30 US GDP Price Index 2Q S 0.7% 0.7% Date Time Country 29/8 02:50 JN 29/8 02:50 Event Auctions JN Japan to Sell 2-Year Bonds (06:45) IT Italy to Sell Bonds (12:00) US U.S. to Sell USD29 Bln 7-Year Notes (20:00) Eco Event US Fed of St. Louis President Bullard speaks (15:50) US Fed of Richmond President Lacker will speak (21:00) Friday 30/8 Period Survey Prior GfK Consumer Confidence Aug -15 -16 JN Overall Household Spending (YoY) Jul 0.2% -0.4% 30/8 02:30 JN Jobless Rate Jul 3.9% 3.9% 30/8 02:30 JN Natl CPI (YoY) Jul 0.7% 0.2% Date Time Country 30/8 02:05 UK 30/8 02:30 Event Global Markets Minesweeper 3 International Markets Analysis 30/8 02:30 JN Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) Jul 0.6% 0.4% 30/8 02:30 JN Tokyo CPI (YoY) Aug 0.5% 0.4% 30/8 02:30 JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) Aug 0.4% 0.3% 30/8 02:50 JN Industrial Production (MoM) Jul P 3.7% -3.1% 30/8 02:50 JN Industrial Production (YoY) Jul P 2.0% -4.6% 30/8 08:00 JN Housing Starts (YoY) Jul 14.3% 15.3% 30/8 09:00 GE Retail Sales (MoM) Jul 0.7% -0.8% 30/8 09:00 GE Retail Sales (YoY) Jul 1.9% -2.8% 30/8 10:00 SZ KOF Leading Indicator Aug 1.33 1.23 30/8 11:00 IT Unemployment Rate Jul P 12.2% 12.1% 30/8 11:30 UK Net Consumer Credit Jul 0.7B 0.5B 30/8 11:30 UK Mortgage Approvals Jul 59.5K 57.7K 30/8 11:30 UK M4 Money Supply (YoY) Jul -- 1.5% 30/8 12:00 EC Business Climate Indicator Aug -0.35 -0.53 30/8 12:00 EC Economic Confidence Aug 93.8 92.5 30/8 12:00 IT CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) Aug P 1.2% 1.2% 30/8 12:00 EC Consumer Confidence Aug F -- -17.4 30/8 12:00 EC Services Confidence Aug -6.9 -7.8 30/8 12:00 EC Unemployment Rate Jul 12.1% 12.1% 30/8 12:00 EC CPI Estimate (YoY) Aug 1.4% 1.6% 30/8 12:00 EC CPI Core (YoY) Aug A 1.2% 1.1% 30/8 15:30 US Personal Income (ΜοΜ) Jul 0.2% 0.3% 30/8 15:30 US Personal Spending (ΜοΜ) Jul 0.3% 0.5% 30/8 15:30 US PCE Deflator (MoM) Jul 0.2% 0.4% 30/8 15:30 US PCE Deflator (YoY) Jul 1.5% 1.3% 30/8 15:30 US PCE Core (MoM) Jul 0.2% 0.2% 30/8 15:30 US PCE Core (YoY) Jul 1.3% 1.2% 30/8 16:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Aug 53.0 52.3 30/8 16:55 US Univ. of Michigan Confidence Aug F 80.5 80.0 Eco Event US Fed of St. Louis President Bullard speaks on the economy and monetary policy (16:00) International Markets Analysis www.alpha.gr Panos Remoundos Maria Koutouzi Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA Konstantinos Anathreptakis +30 210 326 8265 [email protected] panos.remoundos@@alpha.gr [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Disclaimer: The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we make no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy or completeness of such information. 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