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25th NES Research Conference April 16-18, 2009 Thursday, April 16 10:10 – 10:20 10:20 – 11:40 А (521) Registration (room. 521) Chairman: Andrei Markevich Project leader: Irina Denisova Session 1 В (520) Family endowments and demographic and labor market outcomes Chairman: Ruben Enikolopov Project leaders: Valery Makarov, Alexei Savvateev, Konstantin Sonin Game Theory: Networks and Coalitions Zhukova Alexandra: Competition of retail chains Kazantsev Alexandr: Coalition formation and redistribution of power in political games Irek Kalmetiev: Coalition formation for risk diversification with possibility of agents to save Koval Dmitry: The problem of the dictator and viziers: the loyalty-competence- tradeoff Bondarenko Maxim: Do Russian Households Smooth Their Consumption? Konkova Maria: Educational choice: micro analysis Frolov Nikolay: Labor market experience of former military draftees: Russian experience Shutka Sergey: The role of private transfers for Russian households 11:40 – 12:00 Coffee/Tea (first floor) 12:00 – 13:40 Session 2 В (520) А (521) Chairman: Irina Denisova Chairman: Maria Petrova Project leaders: Paul Dower, Andrei Markevich, Project leaders: Valery Makarov, Alexei Savvateev, Konstantin Ekaterina ZhuravskayaTopics in economic history Sonin Game Theory: Networks and Coalitions Pozdova Natalya: Stability of a Cartel at different auction and development Govorun Andrey: Agricultural performance in formats Russian Empire in the 19th century Skiba Elena: Kudinov Anton: Persistent effect of the Pale of Shayakhmetov Marat: Group formation for agents with Settlement different production opportunities Project leader: Alexei Devyatov Moria Oleg: Economic determinants of Russian internal migration at the end of 19th century Modeling and forecasting the Russian economy Nekorkin Alexey: ”Winners” and “losers” from Skopintsev Sergey: A structural model of the Russian transition economy with current account block, retail trade block, soft Provizion Mikhail: Влияние религии на balance constraints and penalty functions отношение сельского населения к социальным институтам 13:40 – 15:00 15:00 – 16:40 А (521) Lunch Break (Lunch is provided to faculty members on the first floor) Session 3 Chairman: Alexei Devyatov Project leaders: Paul Dower, Andrei Markevich, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya Topics in economic history and development В (520) Chairman: Konstantin Sonin Project leader: Sergei Izmalkov Design and Analysis of Trading Processes Agrenenko Alexey: Analysis of the Social Housing Procurement Auctions Conducted by the Government Rivkin Sergey: Industrialization, zemskie expenditure and of Moscow Russian cites in the second part of the 19th century Artimenja Dmitriy: Internet advertising auctions: the Sidorovsky Evgeny: Political Loyalty or Economic analysis of strategic behavior of large players Performance: What Was the Main Factor for Political Gusev Dmitry: Evaluation of potential inefficiencies Turnovers in the USSR?” at U.S. Treasury auctions Ukhaneva Olga: Impact of Ekaterina’s the Second Administrative Reform on Economic Performance of Russian Kotsur Olga: Why does IPO Bookbuilding method prevail over Auctions? Long-term vs. short-term Cities underpricing Tsukanov Alexey: Who likes United States of America in Khusainova Irina: Investigation of firms’ optimal Russia? policy under emission restrictions Chernina Evgeniya: Stolypin agrarian reform and peasant migration to Siberia 16:40 – 17:00 Break 17:00 – 18:30, room 521 Distinguished Lecture: Chairman: Victor Polterovich Sudipto Bhattacharia (Professor of Finance at the London School of Economics): "Banking Theories and the Current Crisis" 18:30, room 520 Wine&Cheese Friday, April 17 10:00 – 12:00 А (521) Session 4 Chairman: Alexei Goriaev Project leaders: Andrei Bremzen, Sergei Guriev, Anton Suvorov Economics of experience goods, collaborative filtering and other topics in microeconomics В (520) Chairman: Oleg Zamulin Project leaders: Victor Polterovich, Vladimir Popov Appropriate economic policies at different stages of catch-up development: threshold mechanisms Vakhrutdinova Yulia: The effect of the real cost of rouble Krasnikov Yury: Research of threshold nature of on incentives to conceal wages: the empirical analysis of economic growth under uncertain costs of adaptation RLMS data Paramonova Julia: Escaping from Underdevelopment Zakharov Konstantin: Firm’s mission choice problem on Trap the labor market with unobserved agent’s type Prilepskiy Ilya: Capital Controls, Foreign Direct Krayshkin Yuriy: Employee on-the-job and off-the-job Investment, and Economic Growth training Pikulina Elena: Institutions and Absorptive Capacity Kucheryavyy Konstantin: Variations in users’ behavior Saraeva Elena: Imitation of technologies and among different types of collaborating filtering networks underdevelopment traps Lavrinenko Katherine: Empirical analysis of imperfect Fedorov Nikolay: Vertical integration, outsourcing and competition in financial markets and capital structure technical adoption Moskvin Andrey: The Fear of Losing Face 12:00 – 12:20 Coffee/Tea (first floor) 12:20 – 14:20 Session 5 А (521) Chairman: Victor Polterovich В (520) Chairman: Sergei Izmalkov Project leaders: Andrei Bremzen, Sergei Guriev, Anton Project leaders: Ruben Enikolopov, Alexei Goriaev, Maria Suvorov Economics of experience goods, Petrova Politics and Finance Akhunianov Irek: Transparency and Firm Value: Evidence collaborative filtering and other topics in from the Financial Crisis 2007 - 2009 microeconomics Goncharov Yaroslav: Rescue of Economics by the Stock Novikov Dmitry: Russian Internet-based Dating Market Manipulation: Evidence from Russian Government Analysis: To Pay Or Not To Pay? Intervention Rubanov Oleg: Partition of All-Pay Contests Zagorodnov Kirill: Investigation on efficiency of lobbying Sazanov Aleksey: Identity-specific investments and expenditures and campaign contributions on law formation in group formation USA Steblyuk Andrey: Peer Effects for NES Students: Kamenskich Marina: Vulnerability to Political Risks: the Case Impact on GPA for Dorm Roommates of Russia Sytnova Oksana: Incentives in Fundamental Nasonov Victor: Political risks and the composition of Research: Absolute Advantage versus Relative international capital flows during the financial crisis of 2007Advantage 2009 Tsoi Anton: Endogenous information in global Usanov Yuri: Insider trading by politicians: evidence from games: an example Russia 14:20 – 15:20 Lunch Break (Lunch is provided to faculty members on the first floor) 15:20 – 16:40 Session 6 А (521) Chairman: Anton Suvorov В (520) Chairman: Dmitry Makarov Project leader: Tatiana Mikhailova Project leaders: Ruben Enikolopov, Alexei Goriaev, Maria Regional Migration and Regional Development Petrova Politics and Finance Vazhnin Pavel: Spatial interactions among Russian Uraskulov Eduard: Influence of Political Expectations on cities 1923-2000 Performance of Defense Industry Goryachikh Kirill: The role of politically connected Mironets Ivan: Lobbying and Stock Volatility: Evidence from firms in the economy of Russian regions the Financial Crisis 2007 - 2008 Minaeva Olga: Russian Regional Convergence: Menyashev Rinat: The Effect of President's Personality on Influence of Migration the Stock Markets in Case of Russian Presidential Elections of Staroverov Aleksandr: An empirical model of 2008 location choice: application to market of appliances Koshelev Andrey: The impact of news on default and liquidity components of sovereign dollar-denominated eurobond spreads in emerging markets during the 2008 financial crisis 16:40 – 17:00 Break 17:00 – 18:30, room 521 Keynote Address: Chairman: Sergei Guriev Zeljko Bogetic (World BankLead Economist for Russia): “A View on The Impact of the Global Crisis on Russia and Policy Response” 18:30, room 520 Wine&Cheese Saturday, April 18 Session 7 Chairman: Pavel Katyshev В (1121-1) Chairman: Grigory Kosenok Project leaders: Anatoly Peresetsky, Alexander Karminsky Project leader: Stanislav Anatolyev 10:30 – 11:50 А (521) Trend of the banking sector in Russia and bank ratings Bakhtin Kirill: The measurement and the comparison of technical efficiency of Russian manufacturing and trade companies Kozlov Evgeny: The links between economic performance of the Russian regions and the development of regional banking systems Makovetskaya Marta: Probability of Default Models for Russian Banking Sector Neyshtadt Igor: Russian banking: A relation between deposit interest rates and risk Predictability and trading strategies in financial markets Kryzhanovskaya Natalia: Different approaches to return sign forecasting under asymmetric loss function Krupskii Pavel: On financial time-series direction-ofchange forecast using copulas with time-varying parameters Reukova Elena: Direct and Iterated Forecasting of Binary Time Series Based on Adaptive Combination Approach Mikheev Stanislav: Different measures of risks and their influence on returns 11:50 – 12:10 Coffee/Tea (first floor) 12:10 – 13:30 Session 8 А (521) Chairman: Vyacheslav Gorovoy В (1121-1) Chairman: Sergey Stepanov Project leader: Dmitry Makarov Project leader: Oleg Zamulin Topics in portfolio choice theory Vilenskaya Olga: Strategic Asset Allocation under Different Investment Opportunities Goncharov Sergey: Optimal effort allocation under varying market perception of manager’s skills Sidelnikov Sergey: Fund family interaction and inflows Sorokin Valery: Optimal leverage under volatility shocks 13:30 – 13:50 13:50 – 14:50 В (520) Break Session 9 Chairman: Stanislav Anatolyev Project leaders: Grigory Kosenok, Sergey Stepanov Mergers and Acquisitions and Some Other Topics in Microeconomics Goryunov Eugene: Reputation acquisition by financial intermediary in the market of equity offerings Zaitcev Dmitry: Effects of managerial compensation on acquisition decisions when investors are irrational Smyslov Anton: Location Choice in Two Countries: Symmetric and Asymmetric Tariffs 14:50 Closing Business Cycles in Emerging Markets Baranov Alexander: Overheating and Overconsumption in developing countries Zakolyukin Yaroslav: House prices and interest rates Nelyubina Natalia: Inflation Stabilization: Crucial Factors for Sucess Safronov Mikhail: The influence of decrease of oil price on Russian GDP