Download Indonesia Update April 2014

Contents
Benefit from Biodiesel Mandatory
Program
Jan14 External Debt Update: Not
Yet Alarming
The Impact of High Fuel
Dependency on the Sustainability
of Economic Growth
Mandiri Leading Economic Index
Mandiri Banking Pressure Index
Indonesia Current Data (Table)
p.02
OFFICE OF CHIEF ECONOMIST
p.08
April 2014
p.12
Indonesia Update
p.18
p.20
p.23
Chief Economist
Destry Damayanti
[email protected]
Analyst
Faisal Rino Bernando
Andry Asmoro
M. Ajie Maulendra
Nadia Kusuma Dewi
Nurul Yuniataqwa Karunia
Sindi Paramita
Reny Eka Putri
Andrian Bagus Santoso
Adjie Harisandi
Mamay Sukaesih
Romauli Panggabean
Rully Arya Wisnubroto
Fitri Yunita
Publication Address:
Bank Mandiri Head Office
Office of Chief Economist
18th Floor, Plaza Mandiri
Jalan Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav.36-38
Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
Phone: (62-21) 524 5516 / 5272
Fax: (62-21) 5210430
Email:
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Benefit from Biodiesel Mandatory Program
Energy security is the crucial agenda that Indonesia has to resolve in the near future.
Growing middle class population has triggered development of transportation
industry as rapid sales of numerous vehicles and demand more goods and services
which also drives rapid growth of consumers based manufacturing sectors. Indonesia
has been relying on oil fuel to fulfill its energy needs and the domination of oil fuel
as energy source was projected to continue in the future. Oil import is unavoidable
and it is obviously unfavorable condition from macroeconomic perspective in term
of current account performance that leads to a pressure on Rupiah recently.
Jan14 External Debt Update: Not Yet Alarming
Total external debt increased in January 2014, yet remains below average. It rose to
USD269.3 bn in January 2014 from USD264.1 bn in December 2013 and slightly
pushed up the external debt to GDP to 31% from 30%. Indonesia’s external debt
level of 31% of GDP remains safe as it is under the conventional level of 40% of GDP,
according to the IMF’s paper “Assessing Sustainability”, 2002). Indonesia’s growth
pick up in the medium term, rising external debt will need to be controlled,
especially for companies not having natural hedge. Increasing investment of
manufacturing sector, which is partly financed using external source whereas its
earning is rupiah denominated, has enhanced and will likely continue ahead as a
consequence of rising middle income class.
The Impact of High Fuel Dependency on the Sustainability of
Economic Growth
The whole process of production and consumption in the economy would require
energy. Several empirical studies also mention the existence of a very close
connection between economic growth and energy demands. Stern (2010) in Stern
(1997) states all economic processes must require energy and there must be limits to
the substitution of other factors of production for energy so that energy is always an
essential factor of production. Indonesia’s economic growth is accelerating, the
country’s future energy demands are expected to increase. The BPPT (Indonesia’s
Government technological research insitution) report titled Outlook Energi Indonesia
2013 (Indonesia’s Energy Outlook 2013) shows that in 2011, Indonesia’s energy
demands only reached 1.044 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
Indonesia Energy Needs Projection
(in Million BOE)
3,000
2,518
CAGR : 4,5%
2,500
1,960
2,000
1,535
1,500
1,207
1,044
1,000
See important disclaimer at the end of
this material
500
0
2011
2015
2020
2025
2030
Benefit from Biodiesel Mandatory Program
M. Ajie Maulendra ([email protected])
Why do we need to develop biodiesel ?
Energy security is the crucial agenda that Indonesia has to
resolve in the near future. Growing middle class population
has triggered development of transportation industry as rapid
sales of numerous vehicles. Also, middle class population
demand more goods and services which also drives rapid
growth of consumers based manufacturing sectors. Therefore,
energy usage in the upcoming years will be mainly absorbed
by transportation and industry sector.
Energy usage in
the upcoming
years will be
mainly absorbed
by transportation
and industry
sector
Indonesia Energy Needs Projection
(in Million BOE)
Proportion of Energy Source by Its Type
(%)
3,000
100%
9.6
2,518
CAGR : 4,5%
2,500
26.8
19.6
17.5
80%
13.5
1,960
2,000
9.3
60%
15.2
14.8
20.7
1,535
14
1,500
40%
1,207
13.9
11.6
34.6
34.1
2011
2015
1,044
1,000
20%
500
42.1
0%
0
2011
2015
2020
2025
2030
Oil Fuel
Coal
Gas + LPG
Electricity
2025
Biomass
Figure 1. High dependence on fossil fuel. As energy needs continue to climb up, the source of energy
still dominated by fossil fuel. In 2025, fossil fuel will still be the biggest portion of energy source
(42%) while the rest of it will be coming from electricity (17.5%), Gas and LPG (14.8%), coal (14%) and
biomass (9.6%). (Source: BPPT Indonesia Energy Outlook, 2013).
Indonesia oil
refinery capacity
can’t match oil
consumption
Indonesia has been relying on oil fuel to fulfill its energy needs
and the domination of oil fuel as energy source was projected
to continue in the future. In the mean time, Indonesia has
been facing serious issue about declining oil production in
recent years. In fact, Indonesia oil refinery capacity can’t
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 2 of 24
match oil consumption as shown by 2012 data where
Indonesia oil refinery capacity was only 1,032 MBPD, less than
1,300 MBPD of oil fuel consumption. As a result, oil import is
unavoidable and it is obviously unfavorable condition from
macroeconomic perspective in term of current account
performance that leads to a pressure on Rupiah recently.
According to that current energy issue, we obviously need to
diversify our energy usage in order to release our dependence
on fossil fuel in the long term. One comes to mind in observing
alternative energy source is biodiesel. The form of this energy
can be produced from particular edible oil such as soybean oil
and palm oil. Compare to other renewable energy forms,
biodiesel will have advantages to be developed in Indonesia
regarding to palm oil abundant in Indonesia. In fact, it is
currently the biggest palm oil producer in the world with 26
million tons of palm oil production in 2013. Moreover, palm oil
price is lower than soybean oil price. The average of palm oil
and soybean oil price between year of 2009 and 2013 is
USD951 per ton and USD1133 per ton respectively. That
comparison shows that palm oil is cheaper than soybean oil in
term of raw material in producing biodiesel.
Indonesia is
currently the
biggest palm oil
producer in the
world with 26
million tons of
palm oil
production in
2013
Million
tons
30
28.2
27,722
27.6
28,038
30000
23.2
24.5
25
21.9
20.9
20
18.3
19.0
19,964
25000
22,852 22,637
19.1
22.2
20000
17,654
15.8
15
USD
Million
15000
13.2
12,619
10,581
10
10,963
10,841
10000
5,832
5
5000
3,407
0
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Oil Import Volume (lhs)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
10M12
10M13
Oil Import Value (rhs)
Figure 2. Indonesia Oil Product Import . The lack of improvement of oil refinery capacity makes
import of oil product continue to increase as rising oil fuel demand. (Source: Central Berau of
Statistics)
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 3 of 24
Consuming more
biodiesel as
alternative energy
is expected to
have better
impact for our
trade balance
sustainability
In addition, consuming more biodiesel as alternative energy is
expected to have better impact for our trade balance
sustainability. By increasing the usage of biodiesel in
transportation and industry sector, import of oil is expected to
decrease and therefore the trade balance will be gradually
improved.
Equally important, biodiesel as one of renewable energy
source is believed to be more environmentally friendly than
fossil fuel based energy. The CO2 emission from combustion
using biodiesel is considerably lower than CO2 emission
resulted from fossil fuel.
Acceleration of biodiesel mandatory
The latest biodiesel
mandatory
program was
issued in order to
accelerate
biodiesel usage as
a fuel mixture
Government had implemented biodiesel mandatory program
in 2008 (MEMR No. 32) before the latest one released in
September 2013 (MEMR No. 25). The latest biodiesel
mandatory program was issued in order to accelerate
biodisesel usage as a fuel mixture. For instance, minister of
energy and mineral resources (MEMR) regulation in 2008
obliged 10% biodiesel usage that must be implemented in
2015 while the latest biodiesel mandatory regulation
advancing the schedule to 2014. One of the reason is based on
fact that in 2013 biodiesel usage has already reached 7.5%,
that was higher than 5% biodiesel usage obliged in first
regulation (2008). In addition, this policy was taken to support
government effort in reducing fuel import and fixing the
current account deficit. Government predicted 5.6 million kl
of diesel fuel import can be reduced between 2013 and 2014
since biodiesel mandatory regulation has implemented. In
other word, it is equal to save USD4 million of our foreign
reserve.
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 4 of 24
MEMR Regulation No.25/2013
Sector
2013
Transportation PSO
Transportation non PSO
Industry and Commercial
Power Plant
2014
10%
3%
5%
7.5%
10%
10%
10%
20%
2015
10%
10%
10%
25%
2016
20%
20%
20%
30%
2020
20%
20%
20%
30%
2025
25%
25%
25%
30%
MEMR Regulation No.32/2008
Sector
2013
Transportation PSO
Transportation non PSO
Industry and Commercial
Power Plant
2014
1%
2.50%
0.10%
1%
1%
2.50%
0.25%
2015
2.50%
3%
5%
1%
2016
5%
7%
10%
10%
2020
10%
10%
15%
15%
2025
20%
20%
20%
20%
Figure 3. Biofuel Regulation. The latest regulation is expected to save the import of diesel fuel by
1.3 million kl and 4.4 million kL in year of 2013 and 2014 respectively. Therefore, total diesel fuel
import can be reduced by 5.6 million kl or it will provide foreign exchange savings of USD4.096
million. (Source: MEMR Government of Indonesia)
Government targetted 4 million kl of biodiesel usage this year,
which is higher than actual biodiesel usage in two previous
years, 1.07 million kl in 2013 and 669 thousand kl in 2012
respectively. Four million kl of biodiesel usage will be allocated
to 1,644 million kl of PSO (public service obligation)
transportation sector, 808 thousand kl of power plant and
1,567 million kl of non PSO transportation sector.
Impact on CPO industry
Increasing
biodiesel
production would
limit CPO export
volume in 2014
By assuming 4 million kl biodiesel will be produced
domestically and considering that production ratio of biodiesel
from CPO is equal 1:1, then 4 million kl biodiesel production
will demand around 4 million kl of CPO (equal 3.5 million tons)
in 2014. In other words, demand of CPO for biodiesel
production will experience sharp increase by around 43%
(YoY) in 2014. Increasing biodiesel production would limit CPO
export volume in 2014. Considering Indonesia Palm Oil
Producers Association projection of domestic CPO
consumption in 2014 that will reach 11 million tons (including
3.5 million tons of CPO for biodiesel), we estimate a slight
increase of CPO export volume by only 7.9% this year. The
growth shows recovery from drop in 2013 (-19.7%) but it is
lower than growth in 2012 (14.6%).
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 5 of 24
27.3
26
24.7
Market Share of Palm Oil Consumption by Country
(%)
16.3
15.1
Country
18.8
23.5
16.4
21.8
16.3
16.8
21
19.2
14.3
17.3
11.9
16
12.1
Indonesia Palm Oil Production and Export
(Million ton)
India
Indonesia
China
EU-28
Malaysia
Pakistan
Thailand
Total (000 ton)
2012
14.5%
13.7%
11.7%
10.9%
4.3%
3.9%
2.6%
52206
2013
14.7%
13.9%
11.0%
11.4%
4.2%
3.8%
2.6%
56971
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F
Production
Export
Figure 4. Strong domestic demand . Currently Indonesia is the second biggest palm oil consumer in
the world after India. Further, it is possibly to become the biggest palm oil consumer with
assumption that biodiesel usage in Indonesia will have significant increase. (Source: International
Trade Statistics, Oil World)
Further impact of biodiesel usage acceleration program in
Indonesia will be seen in bullish price of palm oil through this
year. After the announcement of the latest biodiesel program
in September 2013, CPO price has increased by 12% ,from
USD798 per ton to USD895 per ton, between 3Q13 and 1Q14.
By considering an increase of CPO demand for biodiesel, we
expect average CPO price in 2014 will hover around USD900 –
950 per ton which is higher than average price in 2013
(USD849 per ton).
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 6 of 24
Indonesia Biodiesel Production
(Million kl)
4
2.8
2.2
1.8
0.2
0.24
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
Figure 5. Biodiesel production will continue to increase. Production capacity of biodiesel is
predicted to reach 8.8 million kl in 2015 from 5.6 million kl of its current capacity. (Source: APROBI)
What’s next ?
Despite government seems very eager to encourage biodiesel
usage as fuel mixture, there are some challenges to be
addressed properly as follows :
1. Support of good infrastructure in order to distribute
biodiesel to all provinces in Indonesia.
2. Dissemination to all stakeholders about the importance of
shifting to biodiesel as energy sources.
3. Price determination mechanism of biodiesel in domestic
market need to be reviewed in order to provide sufficient
incentives for both Pertamina (as buyer) and producers.
4. Concistency of government policy in implementing
biodiesel mandatory program regardless of any political
interests.
5. In the medium and long term, reducing subsidy on oil fuel
gradually is necessary to create competitiveness of
biodiesel as alternative energy.
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 7 of 24
Jan14 External Debt Update: Not Yet Alarming
Aldian Taloputra ([email protected])
Leo Putera Rinaldy ([email protected])
Wisnu Trihatmojo ([email protected])
Total external debt increased in January 2014, yet remains
below average. It rose to USD269.3 bn in January 2014 from
USD264.1 bn in December 2013 and slightly pushed up the
external debt to GDP to 31% from 30%. Private external debt
portion remains higher than public’s (52% vs. 48%). In terms
of growth, total external debt accelerated 7.1% YoY from 4.6%
YoY in corresponding period. In our view it is still benign and
below the average growth of 11%.
The source was global bond issuance. January 2014 total
external debt acceleration was significantly contributed by the
public side. Driven by the government’s USD4 bn global bond
issuance, public external debt grew 1.9% YoY in Jan14 from 2.7% YoY contractions in December 2013. Meanwhile, private
external debt grew 12.2% YoY from 11.0% in the same period,
propelled by banks external debt. Wider funding gap from the
banking sector has likely caused higher needs of external
financing. We believe, however, the condition should get
better ahead as interbank USD average daily transaction has
increased recently.
Is it alarming? We think Indonesia’s external debt level of 31%
of GDP remains safe as it is under the conventional level of
40% of GDP, according to the IMF’s paper “Assessing
Sustainability”, 2002). It is also lower than peers; the figures
for Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia are 34%, 37%, and 38%of
GDP, respectively.
Private sector used some of external debt for direct
investment. We think private external debt remains sound as
well. Part of the debt is related with long term productive
purpose which is direct investment. This is because the loan
from parent and affiliated companies accounts 35% of total
external debt. Moreover, more than two-third of private
external debt has a maturity above 1 year, suggesting minor
risk on debt instability near time.
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 8 of 24
Corporate bond outstanding remains relatively low. As
percentage of GDP, corporate bond outstanding is still small at
6% of GDP (USD45.1 bn) in 2013 or increased 7% YoY. In
detail, local currency corporate debt accounted to 2.4% of
GDP. The remainder is foreign currency denominated debt at
3.6% of GDP.
External debt trajectory should remain benign. In our view,
external debt position should not yet be harmful for the
economy this year, especially considering easing financing
needs for investment. Based on our estimate, total external
debt to GDP is expected to hover around 30% - 32% of GDP in
2014. Although there would be some government debt
repayment in the road, this is expected to be manageable. We
also see further increase of interbank USD supply, reducing
the risk of FX liquidity shortage in the system. The average
USD daily transaction continues to increase and in month-to17Mar14 reached USD1.2 bn, up from USD460 mn in
December 2013, and is a 30 month high. Nevertheless, as
Indonesia’s growth pick up in the medium term, rising external
debt will need to be controlled, especially for companies not
having natural hedge.
Increasing investment of manufacturing sector, which is partly
financed using external source whereas its earning is rupiah
denominated, has enhanced and will likely continue ahead as
a consequence of rising middle income class. The Association
of Banks Singapore (ABS) discontinued its offshore IDR/ USD
fixing rate and recommended JISDOR to traders as the new
benchmark to settle NDF contract starting next week is
positive incentive to trigger hedging activity. However, further
deepening and improvement of onshore hedging market by
policy makers should be intensified.
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 9 of 24
External debt growth (yoy %)
External Debt Position to GDP (%)
Total external debt
64
Government and BI external debt
40
Government sector
Private external debt
Private sector
30
48
20
32
10
16
Oct-13
Dec-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Oct-12
Dec-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Oct-11
Dec-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Apr-11
-10
0
Feb-11
0
Figure 6. Total External Debt to GDP Ratio (%) and External Debt Growth (Source: Bank Indonesia)
Total external debt of GDP (%)
South Africa
Malaysia
Thailand
Russia
Korea
Peru
Philippines
Indonesia
Mexico
Brazil
Argentina
India
China
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Figure 7. Comparison of Indonesia’s External Debt to Peers (Source: Bank Indonesia, IIF)
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 10 of 24
Figure 8. 35% of External Debt is related with FDI and Most of External Debt is Long term. (Source:
Bank Indonesia)
0.4
0.7
61.3
84.9
Hong Kong
200
2.4
17.9
16.2
Thailand
15.0
400
92.1 125.7
Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
China
Indonesia
Vietnam
-
Dec-13 Dec-13 Dec-13 Sep-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Sep-13 Sep-13
LCY Corporate (in USD Billions) - LHS
LCY Corp (in % of GDP) - RHS
100
50
0.9
1.47
2.2
3.6 3.6 10.0
13.59 27.19 29.4
10.7
47.52
-
Dec- Dec- Sep13
13
13
Dec- Sep13
13
Sep13
Hong Kong
32.4
127.62
16.7
Singapore
31.3
600
129.7
150
Korea
42.6
800
200
Malaysia
1,000
204.55
Indonesia
963.4
47.0
250
Thailand
1,200
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
China
79.4
1,404.9
1,400
Vietnam
1,600
Dec- Sep13
13
FCY Corporate (in USD Billions) - LHS
FCY Corp (in % of GDP) - RHS
Figure 9. Indonesia Corporate Bond Size is Smaller Than Peers. (Source: ADB)
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 11 of 24
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
-
The Impact of High Fuel Dependency on the Sustainability of Economic
Growth
Adjie Harisandi ([email protected])
Energy is very crucial to drive sustainable economic growth.
The whole process of production and consumption in the
economy would require energy. Several empirical studies also
mention the existence of a very close connection between
economic growth and energy demands. Stern (2010) in Stern
(1997) states all economic processes must require energy and
there must be limits to the substitution of other factors of
production for energy so that energy is always an essential
factor of production. For example, Indonesia’s economy,
which recently continues to grow, implies on the increasing
demands for energy. BPS data show that in the period 20092012, Indonesia’s economy continued to grow at a growth
rate range of 4.63% to 6.49%. On the other hand, the growth
rate of final energy consumption grew nearly double as
compared to the economic growth in the range of 9.09% to
16.01%. Thus, it can be concluded that the use of energy in
Indonesia is elastic to economic growth, meaning that to
encourage the high economic growth needs relatively higher
growth in energy supply.
18,0%
16,0%
16,0%
14,0%
12,0%
11,6%
10,0%
9,2%
9,1%
6,2%
6,5%
6,3%
5,8%
2009
2010
2011
2012
8,0%
6,0%
4,0%
2,0%
0,0%
Economic Growth
Energy Consumption Growth
Figure 10. Economic and Energy Consumption Growth. Indonesia’s energy consumption growth
always higher than an economic growth for period 2009 – 2012.
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 12 of 24
Indonesia’s economic growth is accelerating, the country’s
future energy demands are expected to increase. The BPPT
(Indonesia’s Government technological research insitution)
report titled Outlook Energi Indonesia 2013 (Indonesia’s
Energy Outlook 2013) shows that in 2011, Indonesia’s energy
demands only reached 1.044 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
However, in 2030, Indonesia’s energy demands will increase
by less than 2.5 time of the total energy consumption in 2011,
reaching 2.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent. By observing the
energy use per sector, in 2011 the household sector still had a
dominant role in energy use. However, in 2030, a sector to
dominate the energy use will be the transportation and
industrial sectors.
3,000
2,518
2,500
100%
90%
CAGR : 4,5%
2,000
24
27
35
80%
1,960
70%
31
24
9
39
42
46
2011
2015
2030
60%
1,535
1,500
50%
1,207
40%
1,044
30%
1,000
20%
10%
500
0%
0
2011
2015
2020
2025
2030
Industry
Commercial
Households
Transportation
Others
Figure 11a. (left side). Indonesia energy needs projections (in million barrel of oil equivalent).
Indonesia energy needs will continue to increase with average growth reach 4,5% every year until
2030.
Figure 11b. (right side). Indonesia energy usage by sector (%). In 2011, Household, Industry, and
Transportation sectors still dominating the consumption of energy. In 2030, role of household
sector will shrinking and only Industry and Transportation sectors will dominate an energy usage.
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 13 of 24
However, in order to meet these demands, Indonesia has
experienced problems in the mix of energy sources.
Currently, Indonesia is highly dependent on fuel-based energy.
When referring to data in the Indonesia’s Energy Balance
report 2008-2012 published by BPS, in 2012, despite declining
trend, the final energy consumption derived from fossil fuels
still reached 51%. (Figure: Development of Final Energy
Consumption by Fuel Type). In terms of quantity, Indonesia’s
fuel consumption continued to grow. In 2007, Indonesia’s fuel
consumption was only 1.07 million bpd. In 2013, Indonesia’s
fuel consumption has reached 1.3 million barrels per day,
meaning that there has been an increase of 21.5% in the last 6
years. On the other hand, Indonesia’s oil production continued
to be in the declining trend. Indonesia’s oil production in 2006
was the last time when Indonesia reached the production of 1
million bpd (barrels per day). In 2013, Indonesia’s oil
production reached 830 thousand barrels per day, a decline by
17% when compared to 2006. In addition to the declining oil
production, Indonesia has a limited ability to process crude oil
into fuel and other refined petroleum products due to the
limited capacity of oil refineries in Indonesia. The capacity of
Indonesia’s oil refineries is currently only able to process 1
million barrels per day.
100%
90%
80%
3,0%
9,1%
3,1%
2,7%
3,0%
2,5%
11,7%
13,6%
13,3%
11,0%
16,9%
15,3%
14,1%
13,6%
22,1%
21,3%
21,6%
27,2%
48,8%
48,6%
47,9%
2008
2009
2010
12,0%
70%
60%
23,5%
50%
40%
30%
20%
51,0%
42,9%
10%
0%
Oil Fuel
Coal
Electricity
2011
LPG and Natural Gas
2012
Biomass
Figure 12. Composition of energy consumption by fuel type. Oil fuel stil have a significant role in
Indonesia’s energy consumption.
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 14 of 24
The economic impact arising from high dependency on
petroleum products is quite significant. Firstly, the increasing
demands for fuel without an increase in production capacity
will increase imports of petroleum products. BPS data show
that the volume and value of imports of petroleum products
continue to have an increasing trend. In 2003, the value of
imports of petroleum products amounted to only USD3.4
billion with a volume of 13.2 million tons. However, in 2012,
the value of imports of petroleum products has reached
USD28 billion with a volume of imports reached 27.6 million
tons. This has led to a deepening trade balance deficit of
petroleum products, and even has affected the surplus in the
non-oil and gas sector that Indonesia’s whole trade balance
was in deficit in 2012 and 2013. Secondly, the increasing
demands for fuel oil will interfere with the quality of state
spending. Annually, the government subsidizes fuel, while the
subsidy tends to be non-productive. Energy and Mineral
Resources Ministry data shows that private vehicles, i.e. cars
and motorcycles, are the biggest consumers of subsidized
fuels, reaching 93%. Meanwhile, transports of goods and
public transports only consume subsidized fuels by 4% and 3%,
respectively. Thirdly, dependency on fuel oil will give impact
on the competitiveness of Indonesian economy. The use of
fuel oil as an input in production raises a more expensive value
compared to other energy sources, such as coal, gas and
geothermal. For example, the production cost of electricity
using fuel oil in 2012 reached IDR2,390 per KWh, while coal,
natural gas, or geothermal costs were well below such cost of
only IDR582 (natural gas), IDR359 (coal) and IDR660
(geothermal). Fourthly, Indonesia could not continue to rely
on petroleum-based energy in the long run. With the current
production level and the assumption that no new reserves
would be found, Indonesian petroleum will be exhausted in 12
years.
In view of the demands for oil in the short term, Indonesia
still needs to boost production and increase oil refinery
capacity in order to reduce imports of fuel oil. Exploration
activities to find new oil reserves need to be increased.
Petroleum fund is an interesting concept though in fact it can
be said too late to be implemented in Indonesia because
Indonesia’s oil production has been declining. Petroleum fund
refers to a portion of funds from non-tax revenues of the oil
and gas sector appropriated or deposited for long-term
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 15 of 24
investment needs. For example, the fund can be used to
increase completeness of initial data for PSCs with an interest
in an oil and gas block. This will help the sustainability of oil
and gas production in the long term as investors have been
complaining about the lack of data of oil and gas blocks
offered by the government. In addition, the petroleum fund
can be saved for future generations; thus, the result of oil and
gas is not only felt by the current generation. The government
also should realize that the business of oil and gas production
is a long-term investment that certainty about regulations,
rules, and taxation for PSCs is crucial as it will affect the
calculation of their return on investment. In addition,to
increase exploration activity, maybe government should
change the scheme or giving more incentives to PSC
contractors because exploration field are shifting to eastern
part of Indonesia which is more difficult and need bigger
investment cost.
In addition to problems in upstream production, Indonesia
should also be prepared to shift the consumption pattern to
non-fuel energy sources in the long term. Industrial and
electricity sectors had been shifting gradually towards nonfuel energy sources as the ban on the use of subsidized fuel on
these sectors. However, to accelerate the shift, the
government needs to prepare the infrastructure to make nonfuel alternative energy affordable, e.g. gas pipeline or
regasification terminal like FSRU to bridge between gas
producing areas and gas consuming areas.
Differently, the heaviest fuel dependency problem is found
in the transport sector as the government continuously
subsidizes fuel usage for this sector. To reduce the
dependency, there must be political will of the government to
eliminate incentives in fuel usage by reducing fuel subsidies
gradually. In addition, the need to create a road map or
regulation for all major cities in Indonesia regarding the
application of mass transit and other alternative energy
options for modes of urban transportation in Indonesia, such
as CNG (Compressed Natural Gas), electricity or biofuels.
Essentially, energy problems cannot be solved partially.
Energy problems must be viewed from a national standpoint.
If only energy affairs are supplemented to the seven central
government affairs, which include foreign policy, defense,
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 16 of 24
security, justice, national monetary and fiscal and religion on
Regional Autonomy Act, uniformity of understanding on the
importance of energy in order not to be spent now but to be
saved for future generations may occur.
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 17 of 24
Mandiri Leading Economic Index (MLEI)
Economic Growth Outlook: Moderate Continues
April 2014
In February 2014, MLEI has moved down by only 0.1% (MoM) to the 99.4 level,
from an increase of 0.1% (MoM) in previous month. MLEI fluctuated in the range of
98.3 to 100.2 during the period of January 2013 to February 2014. Most of
constituent indicators of MLEI showed an increase in February 2014 (see detailed
data on the following tables). It predicts the economic growth to stay at ‘moderate’
level in 2Q14 and 3Q14. In our view, economic growth will reach 5.6% this year,
slower than 5.8% last year.
The Indonesia trade balance recorded a surplus of USD0.79 billion in February
2014, brought the January to February surplus of USD1.23 billion. Higher trade
surplus was mostly driven by import deceleration rather than better export
performance. Tighter monetary policies to dampen high import pressures has
affected in 2014 lower import figure. The evidence of slower import, due to
moderating domestic demand, was shown in the contraction of non-oil and gas
imports. As a result, the the non-oil and gas trade surplus jumped to USD1.6 billion
in February 2014 or higher than USD0.6 billion last month. Going forward, we expect
the trade balance stay surplus this year and reached around USD6.2 billion on the
back of recovery in advanced countries and better commodity prices. On the
currency side, we view that Bank Indonesia will keep its tight monetary policy and
favors an exchange rate that supports exporters as well as domestic economy.
IMF has cut its projections for Indonesia’s economic growth in 2014 and 2015 to
5.4% (YoY) and 5.8% (YoY) respectively. The IMF also estimated Indonesia’s currentaccount deficit will reach 3% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2014 and 2.7% of
GDP in 2015. In 2014, Bank Indonesia expected improvement in the current account
performance and reaching below 3% of GDP. At this stage, Bank Mandiri’s economist
team expected the current account deficit will be at 2.7% of GDP this year.
102.0
105.0
101.0
103.0
100.0
101.0
99.0
99.0
98.0
97.0
97.0
95.0
Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13
MLEI (lhs)
© Office of Chief Economist
MCEI (rhs)
Page 18 of 24
MLEI
Change (%MoM)
MCEI
Change (%MoM)
Apr
99.6
0.3
100.4
(0.1)
2013
May
100.1
0.5
100.1
(0.3)
Jun
99.5
(0.6)
100.3
0.2
Jul
99.4
(0.0)
100.2
(0.1)
2013
Aug
98.3
(1.2)
99.7
(0.4)
Oct-13
Sep
99.4
1.1
101.1
1.4
Oct
99.3
(0.2)
101.3
0.1
Nov-13
2013
Nov
99.1
(0.1)
101.2
(0.1)
Dec-13
Dec
99.5
0.3
99.5
(1.7)
Jan
99.5
0.1
99.9
0.4
2014
Feb*
99.4
(0.1)
100.6
0.7
Feb-14*
Jan-14 Feb-14*
(% MoM)
Mandiri Leading Economic Index (MLEI)
99.3
99.1
99.5
99.5
99.4
Indonesia Stock Market Index
98.5
97.6
97.2
98.7
100.0
1.3
Consumer Confidence Current Condition Index
98.9
98.8
98.1
98.4
99.7
1.4
Export Index
99.7
100.3
101.3
99.3
100.0
0.7
Import Index
99.2
99.1
99.2
100.1
98.9
(1.2)
Rupiah to USD Index
97.8
98.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
Private Deposit Index
99.3
98.4
98.5
98.4
96.7
(1.7)
Time Deposit Index
99.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
101.0
100.4
101.3
101.3
100.0
(1.3)
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
101.3
101.2
99.5
99.9
100.6
Saving Deposit Index
Mandiri Coincident Economic Index (MCEI)
Jan-14 Feb-14*
(0.1)
Feb-14*
(% MoM)
0.7
Business Activity Expectation Index
99.6
98.9
99.1
100.4
101.5
1.2
Usage of Labor Expectation Index
99.5
100.4
99.8
100.9
100.0
(0.9)
107.5
108.7
99.7
99.7
100.1
0.4
Industrial Production Index
Retail Sales Index
99.9
98.3
98.8
100.2
102.5
2.2
Motorcycle Sales Index
101.3
101.3
99.8
98.3
99.8
1.5
Cement Consumption Index
100.0
99.7
99.6
99.7
99.8
0.1
note : *) preliminary
Index > 100 and increasing indicates expansion
Index > 100 but decreasing indicates downturn
Index < 100 and decreasing indicates slowdown
Index < 100 but increasing indicates recovery
Changes in parentheses indicate negative numbers
Mandiri Leading Economic Index (MLEI) and Mandiri Coincident Economic Index (MCEI) are composite indices
for predicting the movement of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) so they can be useful as an early warning on the
movement of Indonesian economy. MLEI is used to predict the movement of GDP in the next 6 months, while
MCEI is used to predict the movement of GDP in the same month. MLEI and MCEI composite indices are
formed from several indicators deemed important in studying the movement of Indonesian economy
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 19 of 24
Mandiri Banking Pressure Index (MBPI)
Banking Sector Ahead: Back To Normal
April 2014
Bank Mandiri considers the importance of being aware of the banking sector
development as a whole; both in booming times, recessions and crises through a
leading indicator. From the importance of being knowledgeable on the financial
(banking) sector development in the country in a clearer and measurable manner,
Bank Mandiri established the Mandiri Financial Performance Index (MFPI) which is a
reflection of the service sector and financial business performance, both historical
and real time. Bank Mandiri also composed an index that can project the direction of
MFPI future movement, called Mandiri Banking Pressure Index (MBPI).
Looking at the actual condition, MFPI in April 2014 reported at 86.7. This position
indicates that the condition of the Indonesian banking sector is in alert situation.
Credit growth to the private sector cooled off from 20.9% (YoY) in January 2014 to
19.9% (YoY) in February 2014, as domestic demand moderated. Credit growth is
expected to decelerate post tighter monetary policies and reaching around 15% 17% this year. Meanwhile, capital market performance in March 2014 improved
(+13% YTD), as depicted by gains on the IDX Composite Index and lower yields
(around 7%) of tradable government securities (SBN).
Mandiri Banking Pressure Index (MBPI) is a leading indicator of the banking sector
in Indonesia. It is an indicator that provides a predicted direction of MFPI’s
movement in the next 6-9 months. In February 2014, it decreased to level 98.8 (9.4% MoM). At that level, we expect Indonesian banking entering normal condition
in the period from August to November 2014, as the result of monetary and macro
prudential policy mix. This prediction is expected to be a reference to taking
appropriate pre-emptive measures and crisis mitigation efforts.
Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate at 7.5% in April 2014, consistent
with ongoing efforts to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1% in
2014 and 4.0±1% in 2015. This decision along with a more-balanced domestic
economic structure along with improvements in external sector performance is
helping to strengthen the Rupiah exchange rate. In our view, the current monetary
policy was still ideal to help balancing the external and internal factors, unless
there’s a change in government policies such as an increase in subsidized fuel prices.
At this juncture, we see a possibility of BI Rate hike by another 25bps to 7.75% this
year due to Rupiah volatility, current account deficit, slower China economy and
global commodity prices fluctuation.
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 20 of 24
Mandiri Financial Performance Index (MFPI)
200
160
120
80
40
Jan-08
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-10
MFPI
May-11
Jan-12
Prospective Signal
2012
Period
Sep-10
2013
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Alert Signal
2014
MFPI Threshold
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Mar
Apr*
Prospective
:
MFPI > 113
MFPI
95.1
95.1
88.2
86.2
85.6
86.7
Normal
:
88 < MFPI < 113
Chg (%MoM)
(1.6)
0.0
(4.2)
(2.3)
(0.3)
1.3
Alert
:
MFPI < 88
note: * preliminary
Mandiri Banking Pressure Index (MBPI)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
MBPI
Jan-11
Jul-11
Prospective Signal
2011
Period
Jul-10
2012
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Alert Signal
2014
MBPI Threshold
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb*
Prospective
:
MBPI > 103
MBPI
89.3
100.0
63.1
74.7
109.0
98.8
Normal
:
61 < MBPI < 103
Chg (%MoM)
(11.0)
11.9
4.7
18.3
-0.3
-9.4
Alert
:
MBPI < 61
note: * preliminary
Mandiri Banking Pressure Index (MBPI) and Mandiri Coincident Banking Pressure Index (MCBPI) are composite
indices for predicting Mandiri Financial Performance Index (MFPI) which is a reflection of the service sector and
financial business performance, so they can be useful as an early warning on the movement of Indonesian
banking sector. MBPI is used to predict the movement of banking condition in the next 6-9 months, while
MCBPI is used to predict the movement of banking condition in the same month. MBPI and MCBPI composite
indices are formed from several indicators deemed important in studying the movement of Indonesian
financial condition
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 21 of 24
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AND FORECAST
National Account
Real GDP (% yoy)
Domestic Demand (% yoy)
Real Consumption: Private (% yoy)
Real Consumption: Government (% yoy)
Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% yoy)
Real Exports (% yoy)
Real Imports (% yoy)
GDP (Rp tn) - nominal
GDP (US$ bn) - nominal
GDP per capita (US$) - nominal
External Sector
Exports (%yoy,US$) - Merchandise
Imports (%yoy,US$) - Merchandise
Trade Balance (US$ bn)
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account (US$ bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
International Reserves (US$ bn)
Import cover (months)
Rp/US$ (period average)
Rp/US$ (year end)
Other
BI rate (% period average)
BI rate (% year end)
Headline Inflation (% yoy, period average)
Headline Inflation (% yoy, year end)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
S&P's Rating - FCY
S&P's Rating - LCY
© Office of Chief Economist
2008
6.0
7.5
5.3
10.4
11.9
9.5
10
4,949
513
2,234
2009
4.6
5.4
4.9
15.7
3.3
-9.7
-15
5,606
543
2,328
2010
2011
2012
6.2
5.3
4.7
0.3
8.5
15.3
17.3
6,436
710
2,977
6.5
5.7
4.7
3.2
8.8
13.6
13.3
7,427
846
3,498
6.3
6.1
5.3
1.3
9.7
2.0
6.7
8,229
877
3,583
2013
5.8
5.1
5.3
4.9
4.7
5.3
1.2
9,084
871
3,500
2014F
2015F
5.6
4.5
5.1
4.0
3.5
3.8
1.0
11,100
939
3,820
5.7
5.3
5.0
4.5
6.5
4.5
3
11,450
1,004
4,039
18.3
36.9
22.9
0
0.1
30.2
50
5.1
9,757
10,950
-14.3
-24
30.9
2.0
10.6
31.8
66.1
8.9
10,354
9,400
32.1
43.7
30.6
0.7
5.1
28.5
96.2
9.1
9,078
8,991
27.0
30.3
34.8
0.2
1.7
26.6
110
8
8,773
9,068
-6.1
8.4
8.6
-2.8
-24.4
28.8
113
7.5
9,419
9,670
-2.6
-1.4
6.1
-3.3
-28.5
30.3
99
5.6
10,452
12,189
4.3
1.8
6.2
-2.7
-25.3
29.8
102
6.0
11,825
11,400
5.0
4.5
7.4
-2.5
-24.9
32.8
110
6.1
11,400
11,000
8.8
9.3
10.3
11.1
-0.1
BBBB+
6.9
6.5
4.3
2.8
-1.6
BBBB+
6.5
6.5
5.3
7
-0.6
BB
BB+
6.6
6
5.1
3.8
-1.5
BB+
BBB-
5.8
5.8
4.3
4.3
-1.6
BB+
BBB-
6.5
7.5
7.0
8.4
-2.2
BB+
BBB-
7.7
7.8
6.2
5.3
-2.3
BB+
BBB-
7.8
7.8
5.7
6
-2.0
BBBBBB-
Page 22 of 24
INDONESIA CURRENT DATA
Indicators
Unit
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2014
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
11,675.00
11,536.00
Exchange Rate
End of Period
Average
IDR/USD
IDR/USD
9,393.00
9,354.10
10,900.00
1,167.09
9,390.00
9,461.91
8,978.00
9,021.26
9,069.00
9,059.00
9,658.00
9,634.00
12,224.00
12,023.00
12,213.00
12,099.00
11,615.00
11,921.00
11,400.00
11,428.00
11,562.00
11,430.00
Monetary Sector
Base money M0, eop
Narrow money M1
Broad Money M2
Outstanding Loan
Outstanding Deposit
Lending rate (working capital)
3-month deposit rate, eop
Overnight rate, eop
IDRtn
IDRtn
IDRtn
IDRtn
IDRtn
% p.a
% p.a
% p.a
379.58
450.06
1,649.66
995.11
1,459.44
13.00
7.42
4.50
344.69
456.79
1,883.85
1,313.87
1,673.82
15.22
11.97
9.40
402.12
515.82
2,141.38
1,446.81
1,914.11
13.69
6.85
6.24
518.45
605.38
2,469.40
1,783.60
2,208.72
12.83
7.06
5.72
613.49
733.99
2,877.22
2,223.69
2,596.33
12.16
6.81
4.55
704.84
841.70
3,304.65
2,738.05
2,942.55
11.49
5.76
4.19
821.68
887.06
3,727.70
3,322.68
3,327.66
12.12
7.61
6.03
781.50
842.67
3,649.27
3,287.39
3,269.07
12.23
7.95
5.89
755.17
834.53
3,639.49
3,296.10
3,271.4
12.33
8.03
5.86
771.36
853.49
3,656.44
3,334.92
3,278.77
12.37
8.28
5.88
778.58
886.62
3,732.09
5.84
5.85
111.37
111.35
111.53
7.32
7.25
7.32
0.26
0.08
(0.02)
0.16
1.07
1.33
1.41
1.39
1.56
121.52
124.17
124.89
125.70
126.42
126.76
15.40
2.97
12.43
15.58
3.71
11.88
(0.18)
16.97
3.41
13.56
15.46
4.22
11.23
1.51
14.47
2.50
11.97
14.92
3.55
11.37
(0.44)
14.63
2.73
11.90
13.79
3.46
10.33
0.84
15.19
2.64
12.55
14.52
3.99
10.53
0.67
14.29
2.63
11.66
16.26
3.69
12.56
(1.96)
1,921.56
623.96
6.49
2,095.69
662.00
6.11
2,367.93
699.90
5.72
3,703.51
3,965.38
3,959.30
3,821.99
3,496.38
2,684.29
4,316.68
3,861.68
4,078.36
4,274.18
3,011.27
3,331.35
4,418.76
2,952.32
4,153.35
4,620.22
3,579.68
4,795.29
4,768.28
4,410.18
5,952.82
4,840.15
3,895.67
5,714.42
4,893.91
3,498.73
5,174.81
109.30
116.60
116.40
116.50
116.70
116.20
118.20
113.90
116.90
Prices
Headline CPI (2012=100)
Index
n.a
n.a
88.31
94.46
98.03
101.61
109.82
110.99
111.28
Year on year inflation rate
%
6.59
11.06
2.78
6.96
3.79
4.30
8.08
8.22
7.75
Month on month inflation rate
%
1.10
-0.04
0.33
0.92
0.57
0.43
0.45
1.07
Year to date inflation rate
%
6.96
3.78
3.65
8.08
Wholesale Price Index (2005=100)
Index
217.00
238.00
167.35
177.87
185.76
192.06
Trade
Export
Oil
Non oil
Import
Oil
Non oil
Trade Balance
USDbn
USDbn
USDbn
USDbn
USDbn
USDbn
USDbn
10.86
2.51
8.36
6.81
2.39
4.42
4.06
8.69
1.24
7.45
6.29
0.98
5.31
2.40
13.35
2.50
10.85
10.33
2.10
8.22
3.02
16.83
3.26
13.57
13.15
2.64
10.50
3.68
17.20
3.60
13.60
16.34
3.63
12.71
0.86
Output
GDP (current price)
GDP (constant price at 2000)
Real Growth
IDRtn
IDRtn
% YoY
1,034.86
493.37
5.88
1,274.29
518.94
5.20
1,450.82
547.54
5.43
1,670.52
585.10
6.89
Capital Market
JCI Index, eop
Volume, avg
Value, avg
Index
shares mn
IDRbn
2,745.83
3,155.65
4,340.55
1,355.41
1,743.25
1,454.61
2,534.36
3,422.10
2,332.42
99.10
90.60
108.70
Consumer Confidence Index
2,401.25
706.56
5.21
Disclaimer: This material is for information only, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be
construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or
solicitation would be illegal. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not
warrant that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinion expressed is our current opinion as of
the date appearing on this material only, and subject to change without notice. It is intended for the use by recipient only and
may not be reproduced or copied/photocopied or duplicated or made available in any form, by any means, or redistributed to
others without written permission of PT Bank Mandiri Tbk. Additional information is available upon request. For further
information please contact: Office of Chief Economist, Ph. (021) 524 5516/5272 or Facs. (021) 521 0430.
© Office of Chief Economist
Page 23 of 24
Head Office
Overseas Offices
Plaza Mandiri
Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36-38
Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
Tel: (62-21) 526 5045 – 526 5095
Fax: (62-21) 526 8372 – 526 5008
Website: www.bankmandiri.co.id
Hongkong Branch
th
7 Floor, Far East Finance Centre
16 Harcourt Road, Hongkong
Tel: 852-2527-6611
Fax: 852-2529-8131
Budi G. Sadikin
President Director & CEO
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3067, Fax: (62-21) 526 3459
Riswinandi
Deputy President Director
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3028, Fax: (62-21) 526 3408
Abdul Rachman
Director Institutional Banking
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3839, Fax: (62-21) 526 3671
Sentot A. Sentausa
Director Risk Management
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3454, Fax: (62-21) 526 8213
Ogi Prastomiyono
Director Compliance & Human Capital
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3666, Fax: (62-21) 252 1585
Pahala N. Mansury
Director Finance & Strategy
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3089, Fax: (62-21) 526 8213
Fransisca N. Mok
Director Corporate Banking
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3847, Fax: (62-21) 252 1585
Sunarso
Director Commercial & Business Banking
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3087, Fax: (62-21) 252 1585
Kresno Sediarsi
Director Technology & Operation
Tel: (62-21) 524 3092, Fax: (62-21) 526 3617
Royke Tumilaar
Director Treasury, FI & Special Asset Management
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3057, Fax: (62-21) 5296 4053
Hery Gunardi
Director Micro & Retail Banking
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3079, Fax: (62-21) 252 1585
Riyani T. Bondan
SEVP Internal Audit
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3722, Fax: (62-21) 5296 4116
Ventje Raharjo
SEVP Change Management Office
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3076, Fax: (62-21) 526 8213
Tardi
SEVP Consumer Finance
Tel: (62-21) 3002 3075, Fax: (62-21) 5296 4116
Rico Usthavia Frans
SEVP Transaction Banking
Tel: (62-21) 524 5355, Fax: (62-21) 5296 4116
© Office of Chief Economist
Singapore Branch
12 Marina View#19-01, Asia Square Tower 2
Singapore 018961
Tel: 65-6213-5688
Fax: 65-6844-9833
Cayman Islands Branch
rd
Cardinal Plaza 3 Floor
30 Cardinal Avenue, PO Box 10198,
Grand Cayman, KY1-1002, Cayman Islands
Tel: 1-345-945-8891
Fax: 1-345-945-8892
Bank Mandiri (Europe) Limited, London
nd
Cardinal Court (2 Floor),
23 Thomas More Street
London EIW IYY, United Kingdom
Tel: 44-207-553-8688
Fax: 44-207-553-8699
Shanghai Representative Office
3401, Bank of China Tower
200 Yin Cheng (M) Road,
Pudong New Area, Shanghai, 200120
People’s Republic of China
Tel: 86-21-5037-2509
Fax: 86-21-5037-2507
Dilli Branch – Timor Leste
Avenida Presidente Nicolao Lobato
No.12, Colmera
Dilli – Timor Leste
Tel: +670-331-7777
Fax: +670-331-7190/74444
Mandiri International Remittance Sdn.Bhd.
Wisma Mepro, 29 & 31 Jalan Ipoh 51200 Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia
Telp : +60-3-4045-988
Shanghai Branch
1201-1204 Bank Of Shanghai Tower
168 Yin Cheng Zhong Road , Pudong, Shanghai
200120
People’s Republic Of China
Phone : (86-21) 20332603
Fax : (86-21) 20282817
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