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ǀ 6+$1*5,/$ ,17(51$7,21$/6&+22/60$5.(7,17(//,*(1&(5(3257 Disclaimer and Authorised Use Report: Shangri-La: International Schools Market Intelligence Report This report has been produced by ISC Research Limited for the sole use of the recipient. Use is only authorised for internal purposes. Prior written permission from ISC Research Limited is required should the recipient wish to pass on the report in any form, electronic or otherwise, to any third party. Whilst every care has been taken to ensure that the content of this report is as accurate as possible, ISC Research Limited does not accept any responsibility, including legal responsibility, for any inaccurate, incomplete or outdated information it may contain, any comments or opinions expressed by ISC Research Limited or persons interviewed, or any decisions or actions taken by the recipient based on the report. ISC Research Limited Copyright © 2015 All rights reserved. ii SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 Preface This report has been produced by ISC Research Limited. ISC collects data on English-medium international schools throughout the world. The school data presented in this report come from ISC’s databases of English-medium international schools. ISC includes an international school if it delivers a curriculum to any combination of infant, primary or secondary students, wholly or partly in English outside an English-speaking country. Exceptions to these criteria include American schools in the UK, British schools in America and also schools in countries such as India and Pakistan where English is one of the official languages. Schools in these countries are included only if they offer international curricula. This report provides an analysis of: · · The international schools market in Shangri-La. The demographic and socio-economic factors relevant to an understanding of the international schools market in Shangri-La. Please note: 1. ISC continuously researches the international schools market using research teams based in The Americas, Europe and Asia. This produces data from a wide range of sources, including local correspondents. 2. ISC surveys at least 1,000 premium schools during each academic year. Half of these surveys are carried out during personal visits to schools by ISC’s regional staff, based in Eastern Asia, South Eastern Asia, Western Asia (the Middle East), Europe and Latin America. 3. ISC has data and research agreements with all key international school associations. 4. This report has been compiled using the following sources of information: a. Publicly available demographic and economic data; b. Other publicly available sources such as newspapers, magazines, journals, etc. c. International schools data from ISC’s databases: d. i. 2014-2015 data relating to the international schools market, some of which is provided by schools to ISC and some of which is publicly available; ii. Historical data (May of each year) relating to the international schools market; iii. Information collected by ISC staff during their interviews with a selection of Shangri-La’s international schools in the 2014-2015 academic year. ISC’s network of well-informed contacts in the key sub-regions. 5. All information has been reported as accurately as possible from the information available at the time. 6. Information from external sources has been referenced and credited. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 iii 7. iv Conversions between USD and SKR have been made at an exchange rate of USD 1 = SKR 2.367. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SHANGRI-LA AT-A-GLANCE Land area of Shangri-La 28.1 million population of Shangri-La 46th world population ranking 250,000 km2 Demographic & Socio-Economic Factors USD 1.5 billion Shangri-La TFR Shangri-La GDP (PPP) 1.8 18th births per woman GDP (PPP) world ranking 100 UK English-medium international schools x% of Sub-region’s total x% of global total 91% most prevalent curriculum capacity filled offered by 41% of schools at premium schools USD 341 million Shangri-La’s International Schools Market total annual tuition fee income x% of the global total 80,000 Shangri-Lanian most prevalent student nationality in premium schools enrolment x% of Sub-region’s total x% of global total SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 v SOUTHERN ASIA AT-A-GLANCE Population 7.2 billion Land area of Southern Asia World Asia South Asia xx xx km2 Demographic & Socio-Economic Factors USD xx trillion xx x% of Asia’s total Southern Asia’s GDP xxx English-medium international schools x% of Asia’s total x% of global total XX most prevalent curriculum USD xx billion Southern Asia’s International Schools Market total annual tuition fee income x% of Asia’s total offered by x% of schools x% of global total xxx enrolment x% of Asia’s total x% of global total vi SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 5 1.1 Development of the Global International Schools Market 7 1.2 The Global Market 8 1.3 The Market in Asia and Southern Asia 9 1.4 Introduction to Shangri-La DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS 10 13 2.1 Population Overview 15 2.2 Population Trends 16 2.3 Population Projections 17 2.4 Foreign Population 18 2.5 Economic Overview 19 2.6 Commercial Indicators 21 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 23 3.1 Introduction to the Market 25 3.2 Growth 26 3.3 Fee Growth 27 3.4 School Size 28 3.5 Age Range 29 3.6 Curricula & Examinations 32 3.7 Accreditation Bodies & School Associations 35 3.8 International School Groups Operating in Shangri-La 36 3.9 Government Legislation & Policy 37 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 39 4.1 Introduction to the Premium Market 41 4.2 Nationalities: Staff & Students 42 4.3 Tuition Fees & Other School Charges 44 4.4 Salaries & Benefits 46 4.5 School Facilities 48 4.6 School Operations 49 4.7 Enrolment & Capacity 50 4.8 Waiting lists 52 4.9 Premium School Locations in Yetisberg 53 4.10 Premium School Locations in Downtown 55 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 vii MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 5.1 Recent & Ongoing Developments 59 5.2 Market Outlook 61 CONCLUSION 6 viii 57 Conclusion 63 65 ABBREVIATIONS 67 FIGURES 69 TABLES 70 REFERENCES 71 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 ix x SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary This summary outlines the characteristics of the international schools market and the demographic factors which are important in assessing the market in Shangri-La. Key Findings For the 2014-2015 academic year, 91% of capacity is filled at Shangri-La’s premium schools. Demand is high and, as a result, places at schools that are due to open in the 2015-2016 academic year are likely to be filled quickly. Good employment prospects have resulted in an increase in the number of expatriates in Shangri-La. This will contribute to the growing demand for international education in the country. The number of Shangri-Lanian students at international schools is likely to rise as local families become wealthier and demand the best education for their children. Global trends and forecasts in the international schools market The number of English-medium schools has more than doubled in the last 10 years to reach the present total of X. The number of students has increased from almost X million to a current total of X million and the number of teaching staff has risen to X. Between 2000 and 2014 the market value in terms of annual fee income grew from USD X.X billion to just over USD XX billion. By 2025 the market is forecast to grow to over X schools, X million students, and X staff, with an annual fee income of almost USD X billion. In the year to January 2015 the overall number of international schools had grown by X% and the number of students grew by X%. Demographic factors underpinning the market in Shangri-La Shangri-La, officially known as the People’s Socialist Kingdom of Shangri-La, borders India, Pakistan and China. Its population, recorded as 28.1 million in its 2014 census, is growing at 5% per annum. Its economy is ranked in the world top 20 and is continuing to grow at an average of 6% per annum. As of April 2014 there were 3.2 million foreign workers in the country and this number continues to rise year on year. British citizens account for almost 10% of the foreign workforce. The discovery of large Americranium reserves in 2002 provided a massive economic boost to Shangri-La. Previously the economy had relied upon coal mining and yeti farming as the main contributors to the country’s GDP, and these sectors are still responsible for more employment than any other sector. However, Americranium mining has now become a key industry, and the largest in terms of revenue. It has generated thousands of jobs and the growth of the mining sector has created a surge in economic activities in allied sectors, particularly precision engineering, corporate finance and legal services. This has attracted a substantial SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY number of expatriates who bring skills that cannot be found within the local workforce. These skills are so vital to the commercial exploitation of Americranium that the Shangri-Lanian government has recently taken steps to make it easier for companies to recruit expatriate staff. A high level of income disparity exists in the country. The average income of the top 20% of the working population in 2010 was 65% greater than the average income of the middle 40%. The international schools market in Shangri-La The Ministry of Education and Truth is responsible for all education in Shangri-La. Primary and secondary education is free for all citizens and a minimum of six years attendance is compulsory. Since 2006, the number of private schools in the country has risen after the government instigated a plan to improve the quality of the education system. In 2014, 19% of all children in Shangri-La received private tuition and this figure will inevitably increase as international schools become more prevalent. There are 100 international schools in Shangri-La, employing 7,300 members of teaching staff and educating 80,000 students. 47 of Shangri-La’s international schools are in the capital, Yetisberg and 21 are in Downtown. The number of students at schools in Yetisberg (25,186) equates to 31% of all students at Shangri-La’s international schools. Downtown currently has 16,583 (21%). 30% of students are enrolled at schools which offer the full age range from infancy to 18 years and 38% of schools have a student body that is greater than 500 pupils but less than 1,000. The most prevalent curriculum taught by schools is UK (offered by 41%), followed by the IB (offered by 37%). The most prevalent examination is the IBDP offered by 34% of schools. Of the 30 schools that are members of at least one globally recognised accreditation body, 25 have been accredited by the CfBT Education Trust. The Council of International Schools has the next highest membership, with 9 schools. The Council of British International Schools has 8 member schools in Shangri-La, more than any other school association. It is closely followed by the Federation of British International Schools in Asia, with 7 schools. School groups with the highest presence in Shangri-La are the Narnia Foundation with eight schools, the FSB Group with six and the Baskerville Group with five. ISC identifies premium international schools as international schools which satisfy most or all of the following criteria: (a) they charge tuition fees that are significantly above average, (b) they have been accredited by a globally recognised accreditation body, (c) they are members of a global or regional school association and (d) if they have a secondary phase, they are authorised by a recognised examination board. There are 27 premium international schools in Shangri-La. These schools provide tuition for 28,000 students and employ 2,500 teaching staff. The predominant nationalities of students at premium schools are Shangri-Lanian (32% of the student body) and British (26%). Among teaching staff, teachers from North America (41%) and the UK (24%) are the most prevalent. The average lower annual tuition fee is USD 7,087 while at the higher end the average fee is USD 12,083 per annum. Annual salaries for full time teaching staff range from USD 30,337 at the lower end to USD 45,849 at the higher end. 2 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Growth and demand: the outlook for the international schools market in Shangri-La The combined capacity of Shangri-La’s 27 premium schools is 30,620 student places, of which 28,000 are filled. This equates to 91% utilisation of capacity. Data from all 27 premium schools show that 37% have waiting lists at both primary and secondary levels, 11% have waiting lists at secondary level, 26% have waiting lists at primary level and 26% have no waiting lists. Demand for places at international schools in Shangri-La is expected to continue following the trend that has been established in recent years. The number of students at international schools in Shangri-La has grown from 56,250 in 2011 to 80,000, an increase of 42.2%, while the number of schools has grown from 70 in 2011 to its current figure of 100 schools, an increase of 42.9%. These numbers equate to compound annual growth rates of just over 9%. This growth is a result of (a) the continuing development of the lucrative yeti farming market, (b) the burgeoning Americranium industry and (c) the government’s stated aim of making it easier for businesses in Shangri-La to recruit highly skilled expatriates. In Yetisberg, which is the major centre of international school education in Shangri-La, there is very little spare capacity at premium schools. The two schools known to be opening there in the 2015-2016 academic year will add 2,100 places to current capacity. This amounts to 8% of premium school places in Yetisberg. At the current rate of growth in demand, these additional places will be filled within two years. The Ministry of Education and Truth has outlined its ambition to turn Downtown into a regional centre of educational excellence and the city is expected to receive substantial public sector investment alongside private investment to set up new international schools. It is reported that the Asian School Development Group assess Downtown as a rival to Qatar, Dubai and Abu Dhabi as the most exciting prospect for international schooling opportunities. The strength of Shangri-La’s agriculture and mining sectors and the expanding requirement for highly skilled expatriates in these sectors will drive growth in demand for places at international schools in Shangri-La. Furthermore the demand for international school places from the local population will increase as it becomes wealthier and develops higher educational expectations. Conclusion Continued economic growth, particularly in the mining of Americranium but also in the agriculture sector, is drawing many highly skilled workers to Shangri-La. This, combined with a strong preference amongst the country’s wealthier residents for private education, has led to high demand for places at international schools and a rapidly expanding market. In anticipation of continuing growth in Shangri-La’s international schools market, several premium schools are due to open in 2015 and 2016. Levels of investment in the development of new schools from both public and private sources are expected to rise, indicating a high level of confidence in the market. All factors point towards a very positive outlook for the market in Shangri-La. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction Development of the Global International Schools Market Global Market Data The Market in Asia and South Asia Introduction to Shangri-La 1 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 5 6 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION Development of the Global International Schools Market This section provides insight to market development, determinants of growth and emerging trends and opportunities in the global market. It discusses a range of factors that affect the international schools market, covering particular growth determinants in some countries. For example, some countries place restrictions on nationals attending foreign owned schools whilst others have no restrictions. This means that international school enrolment will vary from being exclusively expatriate, to being predominantly local. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 7 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION 1.2 The Global Market English-medium schools Students Teaching staff Annual fee income (USD) x x x x Figure 1 - The global market, historical and projected Number of schools Enrolment (millions) Teaching staff (thousands) Fee income (USD billion Note: historical data are from January of each year. 8 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 1 1.3 INTRODUCTION The Market in Asia and Southern Asia In Asia English-medium schools Students Teaching staff X X X In Southern Asia English-medium schools Students Teaching staff X X X Figure 2 - International schools in Southern Asia Figure 3 - Students in Southern Asia’s schools India India Pakistan Pakistan Shangri-La 100 Shangri-La Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Bangladesh Bangladesh Nepal Nepal Maldives Maldives Iran Iran Bhutan Bhutan Afghanistan Afghanistan SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 80,000 9 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION 1.4 Introduction to Shangri-La Shangri-La, officially known as the People’s Socialist Kingdom of Shangri-La, borders India, Pakistan and China. It is made up of 8 districts and has a population of 28.1 million people, 30% of whom live in Yetisberg, the capital city. Approximately 18% of the population live in Downtown, the second largest city. The country’s currency is the Shangri-Lanian Krugerrand (SKR). The discovery of large underground reserves of Americranium, a rare earth metal, in 2002 provided a massive boost to the economy and Americranium mining is now a key industry upon which the country’s economy relies. Education System Overview Education in Shangri-La up to tertiary level is governed by the Ministry of Education and Truth (MOET). The Shangri-Lanian government provides free primary and secondary education to all citizens (11 years in total) of which it is compulsory to complete a minimum of 6 years. Private education has become increasingly prevalent in Shangri-La since 2006 when the government instigated plans to improve the quality of education in the country. In 2014, approximately 19% of all pupils were enrolled in private education. Shangri-La became host to many international education institutions in early 2007, and since then the market has grown substantially. International education is very popular among Shangri-Lanian citizens. The Ministry for Education and Truth's Ten Year Strategy is designed to increase the number of western education institutions; Shangri-La will become a regional education centre that will produce a highly talented workforce which will contribute to a thriving economy. As part of the Ten Year Strategy the government has set in place a goal to ‘intensify the internationalisation’ of the education sector. The Ten Year Strategy describes the government’s aim to attract 150,000 international students by 2020. The country has partnered with many international education institutions abroad in an effort to boost its knowledge base and attract foreign students. The government aims to provide campuses for international education institutions at all levels. 10 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 1 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 INTRODUCTION 11 SECTION 1 12 INTRODUCTION SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Demographic and Socio-Economic Factors Population Overview Population Trends Projections Foreign Population Economic Overview Commercial Indicators 2 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 13 14 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 2 2.1 DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS Population Overview Figure 4 - Population 1999 2014 2000 19 million 28.1 million 10 Population growth rate (per annum) Life expectancy (years) Median age (years) 4.7% 83.8 25.3 2014 2014 2014 The 2014 census recorded Shangri-La’s population at 28.1 million people ranking it the 45th most populated country in the world. This represents a population growth of almost 5% per year since the last census and takes into account an increasing number of migrants entering the country in search of employment. Figure 5 - Population composition Male 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female Males 51% Females 49% SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 15 SECTION 2 DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS 2.2 Population Trends Figure 6 - Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 3.5 Births per woman 3 2.5 Replacement level: The TFR required to maintain a static population Shangri-La TFR replacement level 2.2 births per woman 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Shangri-La TFR 1.8 births per woman Over the last 20 years Shangri-La’s population has been affected by a decline in total fertility rate, having fallen from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 down to an all-time low of 1.8 births per woman in 2014. Socio-economic developments linked to these demographic changes include changing social attitudes towards family size, a rise in GDP per capita income and a falling mortality rate. In recent years, Shangri-La has witnessed a rise in the number of women in the labour force. There has been a marked increase in the average age of women marrying for the first time, rising from 23.3 to 26.6 between 1994 and 2014. The number of women participating in the labour force is growing steadily and many are prioritising career development over marrying young and having large families. 16 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 2 2.3 DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS Population Projections Shangri-La’s population is predicted to continue increasing over the next 10 years. A report released by the Shangri-Lanian Ministry of Compilations and Manifests stated that the population was projected to reach 35 million by 2020. The population will continue to age and, within 40 years, the population of those aged between 0 and 14 could drop below 25% of the total. Even the most conservative estimates envisage the proportion of the child population falling 4% from the current figure of 34%. Figure 7 - Projections by age, 2010 - 2050 By 2030 7.7 14.7 Population 20.4 35 million 61.9 61.3 59.8 Median age 45 30.3 2010 0-14 24.1 19.8 2030 2050 15-59 60+ SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 17 SECTION 2 DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS 2.4 Foreign Population Figure 8 - Nationals and non-nationals in Shangri-La, 2010 Yetisberg Downtown Heetra Baleia Heston Lavith Ongoa Mid-Town 0% 20% 40% Nationals 60% 80% 100% Non-Nationals The 2010 census stated that there were 3.2 million foreign residents living in Shangri-La, however, no further detail is given. Exact statistics regarding the origin of migrants residing in Shangri-La are not available due to the absence of recent publicly available data. A report released by the Ministry of Compilations and Manifests in 2010 states that foreign workers made up around 11% of the country’s population in the same year. This figure had been steadily rising for the previous 5 years. No official breakdown regarding the nationalities of Shangri-La’s foreign population has been given, however estimates suggest that around 10% of expatriates originate from the United Kingdom. The largest concentrations of expatriates are in Yetisberg, Downtown and Heetra. The government has introduced measures which will reduce the administrative burden of recruiting foreign workers, with the intention of facilitating the employment of highly skilled expatriates by local companies. These measures were put into place in late 2012 and had an immediate effect on recruitment. 18 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 2 2.5 DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS Economic Overview Gross domestic product rank Corruption Perception Index Ease of Doing Business 13th 105th 48th 0.76 2014 2014 2014 2013 A listing of countries organised by Transparency International examining the levels of believed public sector corruption based on expat experience and opinion surveys. The lower the rank, the greater the corruption. A ranking of the levels of situational obstructions to business practice present in each country. 1 is very simple, 100 is very obstructed. Gini coefficient A measure of income disparity in a domestic population. 1 equals perfect inequality and 0 equals perfect equality. Figure 9 - Gross domestic product growth 9 GDP growth rate (%) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Shangri-La is ranked as a middle-income country by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The country recovered well from the 1997 economic crisis and achieved an average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of over 4% per annum until the global financial crisis of 2008. Shangri-La avoided recession, although its GDP growth fell sharply to 1.4% per annum in 2008-2009. Since then, GDP growth has increased rapidly, reaching a record high of 7.9% per annum in 2013-2014. In 2014, Shangri-La ranked 13th in the world by nominal GDP and 18th in the world by GDP Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 19 SECTION 2 DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS Until 2002, Shangri-La’s economy was built on a foundation of coal mining and yeti farming and experienced slow but steady growth. In 2002, the country discovered large reserves of Americranium, a rare earth metal which is now in high demand in a wide range of “high tech” industries. Americranium mining has dramatically enhanced the country’s economic outlook, resulting in substantial growth of its economy in the last 10 years. Monthly household income (SKR) Figure 10 - Monthly average household income by decile group 1990 Bottom 40% 2000 Middle 40% 2010 Top 20% During Shangri-La’s period of strong economic growth, the country has developed a high level of income disparity between the rich and poor. Income disparity is measured by the difference between the highest and lowest income groups. On this measure, Shangri-La ranks as the 12th highest in the world, according to the World Bank, with a gini coefficient of 0.76. This has occurred as a result of the involvement of a proportion of the working population in mining and export of Americranium reserves. The average monthly household income in the middle 40% of earners in 2010 was SKR 8,800. For the top 20% of incomes the average was 14,500 SKR per month. Unemployment in Shangri-La has fallen to 1.7%, largely as a result of employment in the increasing number of public work projects. 20 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 2 2.6 DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS Commercial Indicators Since the discovery of Americranium in 2002, the Shangri-Lanian government has implemented programmes to attract foreign investment and skilled foreign workers which are expected to boost the economy and establish Shangri-La as a leading producer of precious metals. Alongside plans to boost the country’s economy, the government plans to develop international education in the country. The Ministry for Education and Truth’s Ten Year Strategy describes its intention to attract 150,000 international students by 2020. It plans to establish Shangri-La, especially Downtown, as a centre for world class education. This will help to attract skilled expatriate workers by increasing their confidence in the quality of international education in the country. The rapid growth of the mining sector has resulted in a surge in economic activities which are allied to the mining sector, notably precision engineering, corporate finance and legal services. In the past few years these sectors have been responsible for the recruitment of a significant proportion of the country’s expatriate workforce, and this trend is expected to continue. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 21 SECTION 2 · DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS 22 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Shangri-La’s International Schools Market Market Introduction Growth: Schools, Students & Staff Fee Growth School Size Age Range Curricula & Examinations Accreditation Bodies & Associations School Groups Operating in Shangri-La Government Legislation & Policy 3 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 23 24 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 3 3.1 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Introduction to the Market This section of the report describes the current state and the recent growth of the international schools market in Shangri-La. The numbers of schools, students and full time teaching staff at all international schools in Shangri-La are tabulated below, and the parameters which describe these schools are outlined in the remainder of this section. International schools in Shangri-La English-medium schools Number of students Teaching staff 100 80,000 7,300 Figure 11 - Schools, students and teaching staff by district 47 25,186 2,494 16,583 1,431 21 Yetisberg Downtown Yetisberg Downtown Yetisberg Downtown SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 25 SECTION 3 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 3.2 Growth Figure 12 - Schools, students and teaching staff growth in Shangri-La Schools % change between 70 77 85 93 100 Jan 2011 - Jan 2015 42.9% Compound annual growth rate 9.3% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Students % change between 56,250 61,300 67,850 73,540 80,000 Jan 2011 - Jan 2015 42.2% Compound annual growth rate 9.2% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Teaching staff % change between 7,300 5,085 5,523 6,050 6,610 Jan 2011 - Jan 2015 43.6% Compound annual growth rate 9.5% 2011 26 2012 2013 2014 2015 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 3 3.3 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Fee Growth The following charts demonstrate the growth in annual school fees and total annual fee income at all international schools in Shangri-La between January 2011 and January 2015. Figure 13 - Average annual fee (USD) % change from 2011 - 2015 6,925 7,366 7,831 8,111 8,406 Average tuition fee 21.4% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total annual tuition fee income Figure 14 - Total annual fee income (USD million) 72.6% 672 596 531 452 390 Growth in total annual fee income reflects the increase in average fees and the increase in student enrolment during this period. Compound annual growth rate of total annual tuition fee income 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 14.6% SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 27 SECTION 3 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 3.4 School Size Figure 15 - International school size (by student enrolment) 0-99 100-249 250-499 500-999 1000+ 11 18 26 38 7 11% 18% 26% 38% 7% Figure 16 - Percentage of schools by size of student enrolment 0-99 11% 100-249 18% 1,000+ 7% 250-499 26% 500-999 38% 28 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 3 3.5 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Age Range Figure 17 illustrates the number of schools that teach the specified age ranges only, and Figure 18 shows the number of students at those schools. Each school campus is counted only once and the total number of campuses shown in Figure 17 equals the total number of campuses in the country. For example, campuses included in the 0-5 count do not teach students any older than 5 and they are not included in the count of campuses that teach 0-11, 0-16 or 0-18. Figure 17 - Schools offering each age range School age range 26 22 14 11 7 4 6 8 2 Schools Students 0-5 11 5,892 0-11 22 11,946 0-16 14 12,885 0-18 26 24,297 5-11 7 6,632 5-16 4 4,956 5-18 2 1,958 11-16 6 4,720 11-18 8 6,714 16-18 0 0 Figure 18 - Students at schools offering each age range 30% of Shangri-La’s students are enrolled at schools that offer the 0-18 age range 24,297 11,94612,885 5,892 6,632 6,714 4,956 4,720 1,958 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 29 SECTION 3 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET In Yetisberg Figure 19 - Schools offering each age range 14 School age range 9 7 5 3 2 3 3 1 Schools Students 0-5 5 743 0-11 9 2,034 0-16 7 4,287 0-18 14 10,176 5-11 3 807 5-16 2 1,428 5-18 1 1,042 11-16 3 2,110 11-18 3 2,559 Figure 20 - Students at schools offering each age range 10,176 4,287 2,034 743 30 2,110 1,428 807 2,559 1,042 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 3 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET In Downtown Figure 21 - Schools offering each age range School age range 6 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 Schools Students 0-5 2 461 0-11 3 927 0-16 3 2,278 0-18 6 5,930 5-11 2 1,386 5-16 1 973 5-18 1 1,346 11-16 1 900 11-18 2 2,382 Figure 22 - Students at schools offering each age range 5,930 2,382 2,278 461 927 1,386 973 1,346 900 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 31 SECTION 3 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 3.6 Curricula & Examinations Figure 23 - Schools offering each curriculum 41 Most prevalent curriculum 37 32 UK 19 13 offered by 9 8 5 2 41% of schools Many schools offer more than one curriculum and therefore the number of schools represented in Figure 23 add up to more than the total number of schools in Shangri-La. 32 schools offer bilingual programmes, which can include any curriculum. The only requirement is that tuition is delivered in more than one language and, for the purposes of this report, one of those languages must be English. Figure 24 - Schools offering each examination Most prevalent examination 34 19 IBDP 18 13 offered by 11 8 3 2 34% of schools 32 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 3 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Curricula by district Figure 25 - Schools offering each curriculum by district In Yetisberg Most prevalent curriculum 22 UK 17 12 9 offered by 6 4 3 47% of schools In Downtown Most prevalent curriculum 12 UK 7 5 offered by 4 2 2 2 57% of schools SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 33 SECTION 3 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Examinations by district Figure 26 - Schools offering each examination by district In Yetisberg Most prevalent examination 14 IBDP 9 7 6 offered by 3 2 30% of schools In Downtown Most prevalent examination 5 5 IBDP 3 2 2 2 offered by 24% of schools 34 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 3 3.7 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Accreditation Bodies & School Associations Table 1 - Membership of associations Association Schools Students COBIS 8 4,833 FOBISIA 7 3,948 ECIS 4 2,865 EARCOS 3 2,240 ROUNDSQUARE 3 1,214 AAIE 3 1,205 Table 2 - Accreditation bodies and accredited schools Accreditation body Schools Students 25 28,663 CIS 9 5,869 NEASC 2 1,410 WASC 1 789 CFBT Note: abbreviations are explained on page 67 of the report. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 35 SECTION 3 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 3.8 International School Groups Operating in Shangri-La Table 3 - Membership of school groups Group 36 Schools Students Narnia Foundation 8 7,226 FSB Group 6 5,219 Baskerville Group 5 4,371 ACVL Group 4 3,386 MTR International Schools 3 2,593 Sambung Foundation 3 2,538 GISG 2 1,682 KVM Group of Schools 1 828 Brock School Network 1 768 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 3 3.9 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Government Legislation & Policy The government has relaxed the planning laws with regard to development of new schools, including international schools. For example, applications to develop schools on sites which were not previously used for education will benefit from expedited approval. Given the intention to attract 150,000 international students by the year 2020, education policy is likely to be favourable to international schools, as well as to foreign universities and other educational institutions. In recent years, in a bid to boost global competitiveness, the Shangri-Lanian government has made it noticeably easier for expatriates to obtain a visa. This has developed from a need to bring in particular expertise in order for the economy to thrive. Cultural studies is the only element of the Shangri-Lanian national curriculum that is compulsory in all schools. Students must study 2 hours per week. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 37 SECTION 3 38 SHANGRI-LA’S INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Shangri-La’s Premium International Schools Market Introduction to Shangri-La’s Premium Market Nationalities: Staff & Students Tuition Fees & Other Charges Salaries & Benefits School Facilities School Operations Enrolment & Capacity Waiting Lists Premium School Locations 4 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 39 40 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 4 4.1 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Introduction to the Premium Market Among Shangri-La’s 100 international schools are 27 which ISC classifies as premium schools. These are the most sought after schools; they have a strong presence in the market. Premium schools usually charge tuition fees which are significantly above average, reflecting the higher cost of recruiting and retaining the best teachers. They are almost always accredited by at least one recognised accreditation body and are usually members of at least one recognised regional or international school association. If they include secondary students, they will offer a recognised international examination program and be authorised by a recognised examination board. There are exceptions; for example, some new schools may not have been established long enough to have gained accreditation but are still regarded by ISC as premium schools. Most of Shangri-La’s premium schools have been surveyed by ISC consultants during the course of the current academic year. These surveys provide ISC with high quality data, local intelligence and insights, invaluable for a thorough analysis of the market. Data which have been obtained from premium schools are presented in this section of the report. Maps illustrating the locations of premium international schools in Shangri-La can be found at the end of this section. Premium international schools English-medium schools Number of students Teaching staff 27 28,000 2,500 27% of Shangri-La’s total 35% of Shangri-La’s total 34% of Shangri-La’s total SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 41 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 4.2 Nationalities: Staff & Students Figure 27 - Student nationalities 26% British 15% American 10% Indonesian 8% Australian 6% Thai Swiss Figure 27 illustrates the most prevalent nationalities at premium schools in ShangriLa and the percentage of the student body represented by each nationality. The 7 nationalities shown in this analysis account for 83% of students at Shangri-La’s 27 premium schools. ISC has nationality data for the three most prevalent nationalities at each of the schools in this analysis. Most of these campuses have students from at least 10 countries. 32% Shangri-Lanian 2% Figure 28 - Staff nationalities North American 41% 24% British 23% ANZ 12% All Others Other European Local 42 Figure 28 illustrates the breakdown of staff nationalities at 23 premium school campuses in ShangriLa. 9% 8% SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Student nationalities split by curriculum Figure 29 - Student nationalities at schools offering UK curricula British 42% Shangri-Lanian 23% Indonesian American 6% 5% Figure 30 - Student nationalities at schools offering US curricula American 35% Shangri-Lanian 15% British Australian 8% 5% Figure 31 - Student nationalities at schools offering the IBDP Shangri-Lanian 21% Indonesian 15% British American 4% 2% SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 43 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 4.3 Tuition Fees & Other School Charges Premium international schools Annual average low fee (USD) Annual average high fee (USD) 7,087 12,083 Annual average lower tuition fees are calculated using fee information from kindergarten or primary schools. Annual average higher tuition fees are calculated using fee information from secondary schools. Table 4 - Tuition fees at premium international schools 44 Lower fee Upper fee School (USD) (USD) Arbuckles School 4,125 7,746 Bally-Hai International School 8,762 12,250 British School of Shangri-La 9,800 14,400 Christian School of Shangri-La 5,897 10,989 David Backham School 7,542 13,400 Donut International School 5,722 10,222 Downtown All Saints School 8,100 11,630 Fatboy International School 6,428 10,888 Fullwood College 9,420 14,799 Garfunkel Academy 9,633 14,920 International School of Shangri-La 7,922 13,979 Kafka International School 8,798 12,498 Melksham International School 7,500 12,111 Middle Earth International School 9,010 15,723 Millstone International Academy 5,325 10,451 Monopoly Christian School 6,200 10,000 Nebula College 7,700 12,200 Nemesis College of Shangri-La 9,154 14,730 Nirvana Primary School 6,350 12,471 Nirvana Secondary School 7,650 12,630 Ratzinger College 4,900 10,789 Scrabble International School 5,746 12,294 Strawberry Fields College 4,050 7,858 Terenbaum Park College 5,391 10,400 Tsarovich International School 5,213 11,153 Yetisberg Girls' College 9,020 15,400 Velociraptor Academy 5,987 10,320 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Table 5 - Additional fees Capital / Facility Fee Application Fee Registration Fee School (USD) Arbuckles School 2,800 Bally-Hai International School (USD) (USD) 100 300 700 270 British School of Shangri-La 8,500 700 250 Christian School of Shangri-La 5,000 700 250 David Backham School 4,650 300 300 Donut International School 500 320 Downtown All Saints School 500 Fatboy International School 700 240 700 150 650 150 350 260 Fullwood College Garfunkel Academy 8,000 International School of Shangri-La Kafka International School 6,000 200 300 Melksham International School 8,750 300 320 Middle Earth International School 750 250 Millstone International Academy 400 250 Monopoly Christian School 700 Nebula College 500 300 Nemesis College of Shangri-La 700 320 800 220 Nirvana Primary School 7,000 Nirvana Secondary School 200 Ratzinger College 200 Scrabble International School 150 Strawberry Fields College 150 150 300 300 Terenbaum Park College 300 Tsarovich International School Yetisberg Girls' College 2,000 700 250 Velociraptor Academy 2,000 700 320 * Capital/facility fees are annual charges. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 45 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 4.4 Salaries & Benefits Figure 32 - Annual lower & upper salaries at premium international schools Salary Range (,000 USD) 70 Annual average low salary (USD) 60 50 30,337 40 30 Annual average high salary (USD) 20 45,849 10 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 Salaries split by curriculum The table below shows the average upper and lower annual salaries paid to full time teaching staff at schools which teach UK, IBDP or US curricula, either alone or in conjunction with other curricula. Table 6 - Average annual salaries split by curriculum Curricula include UK IBDP US Average lower salary (USD) 33,672 30,587 31,894 Average upper salary (USD) 54,370 48,520 51,644 19 11 4 Total schools Upper salaries paid at schools offering UK curricula are, on average, about 12% higher than those paid at schools offering the IBDP and 5% higher than those offering US curricula. Lower salaries paid at schools offering the IBDP are 9% lower than at schools offering UK curricula and 4% lower than schools offering US curricula. There are noticeably fewer premium schools in Shangri-La offering US curricula. 46 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Figure 33 - Staff benefits offered at premium schools Benefit Medical Insurance Flights Tuition Housing Bonus Pension Schools offering The data shown in Figure 33 come from ISC’s surveys of Shangri-La’s 27 premium schools. 27 26 25 23 Of these: 18 of the 23 schools that offer housing benefits provide a housing allowance of USD 18,000 for staff. 16 schools provide fully discounted tuition fees to all children of staff and 9 provide fully discounted fees to the first child only. 23 19 Almost 100% of schools offer free annual flights. Table 7 - Staff benefits offered at premium schools, split by curriculum Curricula include UK IBDP US Medical Insurance 100% 100% 100% Flights 100% 90% 100% Tuition 100% 85% 100% Housing 100% 90% 90% Bonus 100% 82% 0% Pension 80% 75% 90% 19 11 4 Total schools Data in this table are from the same 27 schools shown in Figure 33, split into those which offer UK, IBDP and/or US curricula, either alone or in conjunction with other curricula. The numbers in Table 7 add up to more than the total number of schools because there are some schools that offer more than one curriculum. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 47 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 4.5 School Facilities Figure 34 - Facilities at premium international schools Facilities Swimming Pool Schools offering Playing Fields Gym/MPH 24 25 26 Auditorium Theatre Tennis Courts Running Track 24 19 18 10 The data in Figure 34 illustrate the facilities offered at 26 premium international schools. 48 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 4 4.6 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET School Operations Figure 35 - Organisation type Company Figure 36 - Profit status 14 Proprietorship For profit 7 Trust 2 Foundation 2 Charity 1 Other 1 Not for profit 15 60% 10 40% The data presented in Figures 35 and 36 were obtained from 27 and 25 schools respectively. Figure 37 - Governing bodies 12 26 schools At least in Shangri-La have governing bodies 8 6 At these 26 schools, the governing body is . . . Elected Selected Elected & Selected SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 49 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 4.7 Enrolment & Capacity Table 8 - Enrolment and capacity at premium schools School Enrolment Utilisation Arbuckles School 1,000 1,200 83.3% Bally-Hai International School 1,500 1,500 100.0% British School of Shangri-La 910 1,000 91.0% Christian School of Shangri-La 540 600 90.0% David Backham School 841 920 91.4% Donut International School 600 600 100.0% Downtown All Saints School 750 800 93.8% Fatboy International School 948 1,000 94.8% Fullwood College 727 800 90.9% Garfunkel Academy 1,415 1,450 97.6% International School of Shangri-La 2,351 2,500 94.0% Kafka International School 1,419 1,500 94.6% Melksham International School 372 400 93.0% Middle Earth International School 550 600 91.7% Millstone International Academy 1,216 1,300 93.5% Monopoly Christian School 1,163 1,200 96.9% Nebula College 456 500 91.2% Nemesis College of Shangri-La 871 950 91.7% Nirvana Primary School 896 1,000 89.6% 1,174 1,200 97.8% Ratzinger College 764 1,300 58.8% Scrabble International School 650 800 81.3% Strawberry Fields College 1,486 1,650 90.1% Terenbaum Park College 2,163 2,350 92.0% Tsarovich International School 1,268 1,350 93.9% 712 850 83.8% 1,258 1,300 96.8% Nirvana Secondary School Yetisberg Girls' College Velociraptor Academy 50 Capacity Total enrolment Total capacity Capacity filled Unfilled places 28,000 30,620 91% 2,620 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Capacity utilisation split by curriculum The following graph shows the proportion of capacity that is filled at premium schools which offer UK or US curricula or the IBDP, MYP or PYP, either alone or in combination with other curricula/programmes. Figure 38 - Capacity utilisation analysed by curriculum 92.1% 19 schools UK 88.8% 11 schools IB 93.8% 3 schools 94.3% 3 schools MYP PYP 97.6% 4 schools US SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 51 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET 4.8 Waiting lists Figure 39 - Waiting lists at premium schools Number of schools with waiting lists: Primary 7 schools (26%) Secondary 3 schools (11%) Primary & Secondary 10 schools (37%) No waiting list 7 schools (26%) ISC has waiting list data from Shangri-La’s 27 premium international school campuses (presented in Figure 39). Table 9 - Waiting lists at premium schools, split by curriculum Curricula include 52 Waiting lists UK IBDP MYP PYP US None 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% Primary 30% 50% 60% 60% 25% Secondary 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% Both 60% 50% 40% 40% 50% SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Insert: 4.9 Premium School Locations in Yetisberg SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 53 SECTION 4 54 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 4 4.10 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Premium School Locations in Downtown SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 55 SECTION 4 56 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 4 SHANGRI-LA’S PREMIUM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS MARKET Market Developments Recent & Ongoing Developments Market Outlook 5 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 57 58 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 5 5.1 MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Recent & Ongoing Developments Future Schools School Actual or projected opening date Further information FW Nietzsche International School, Ongoa September 2015 This school will open its doors for the 2015-2016 academic year and will be the second school to be owned by the Brock School Network. It will teach pupils aged 3-14 but will eventually cater for students up to 18 years of age. It will offer UK and IB curricula and will have a total capacity of 1,200 pupils. HDRC American School, Yetisberg September 2015 This school will open with approximately 450 students. Its planned capacity is 900 pupils. It will teach the US curriculum to students aged 5-16. Middle Earth College, Downtown September 2016 This school will teach the British curriculum to 800 students aged between 11 and 18. 650 of these places will be for boarders. August 2015 This school will have capacity for 1,200 pupils. It plans to offer the full 3-18 age range and will teach UK curricula. Expected 2016 The opening date for this school has not been confirmed but it is expected to be in operation for the 2016-2017 academic year. It will be a US curriculum school for pupils aged 11-18. September 2015 This school is located east of Downtown and is scheduled to begin its last phase of construction on a site covering 18 acres. It will be a secondary school catering for children aged 11-18 and will teach the UK curriculum with the option of the IBDP in sixth form. Pigwarts International School, Yetisberg Ryecatcher Academy, Downtown Yellowstone British School SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 59 SECTION 5 MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Further developments Bally-Hai International School has submitted a proposal to build a new primary campus with a planned capacity of 500 places. ISC understands that Ratzinger College is concerned by its low enrolment and is considering relocating its campus to the east of Downtown, where demand is higher. Folly Properties, a development and construction company, is planning to partner with the Baskerville Group to create a residential development to the west of Downtown that will also be the site of two new schools. One will be a UK curriculum school and the other a US curriculum school, and both will offer the IBDP in the sixth form. They will have a combined capacity of 3,000 places and will cater for the full age range from infancy to 18 years. The project is expected to take up to 3 years to complete. 60 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 5 5.2 MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Market Outlook Demand for places at international schools in Shangri-La is expected to grow rapidly, continuing the trend which has been established over the past ten years. This is largely because of the ongoing development of the Americranium industry and partly because of the government’s stated aim of making it easier for businesses in Shangri-La to recruit expatriates. In Yetisberg, which is the major centre of international school education in Shangri-La, there is very little spare capacity at premium schools. The two schools known to be opening there (HDRC American School and Pigwarts International School) will add 2,100 places to current capacity. This additional capacity amounts to 8% of premium school places in Yetisberg. At the current rate of growth in demand, this extra capacity will be saturated within two years. The Ministry of Education and Truth has formulated plans to develop Downtown into an area of educational excellence over the next few years. As a result, the city is expected to receive a large amount of investment from both public and private sectors to establish a number of new international schools. The Asian School Development Group reportedly views Downtown alongside Qatar, Dubai and Abu Dhabi as a location with excellent prospects for international school development. Throughout Shangri-La, 91% of capacity at premium international schools is filled. A total of 3,300 additional places will be added for the 2015-2016 academic year which will bring total capacity to just under 34,000 places placing utilisation using current total enrolment at 83%. However, it is likely that any spare capacity will be filled within three years. The strength of Shangri-La’s mining sector and the expanding requirement for highly skilled expatriates in this and allied sectors of industry will drive growth in demand for places at international schools in Shangri-La. Furthermore the demand for international school places from the national population will increase as local families become wealthier and seek the best education for their children. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 61 SECTION 5 62 MARKET DEVELOPMENTS SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 5 MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Conclusion Report Conclusion 6 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 63 64 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 SECTION 6 6 CONCLUSION Conclusion Shangri-La’s economy has relied heavily on coal mining for many years. It received a massive boost from the discovery of Americranium reserves in 2002. GDP since then has soared and new business sectors connected with the mining industry have grown. However the indigenous working-age population has not grown fast enough to satisfy the demands of these new industries for labour. In particular the supply of highly skilled workers has been insufficient. These industries have therefore recruited a substantial number of expatriate workers and the growth of the economy has relied heavily upon this. As the economy continues to grow, this trend will continue. This will inevitably add to the demand for places at international schools. With 91% of capacity at premium international schools already filled, many schools operate waiting lists and the number of places which will be added in 2015 and 2016 may not be enough to keep up with rising demand. This situation will lead to longer waiting lists at the best schools and is highly likely to lead to the development of more new schools to meet the increasing demand. In anticipation of continuing growth in Shangri-La’s international schools market, several premium schools are due to open for the 2015-2016 academic year with more planned for the following 2-3 years. This indicates a high level of confidence in the future of the market in Shangri-La. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 65 SECTION 6 66 CONCLUSION SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 Abbreviations Accreditation bodies CfBT CfBT Education Trust CIS Council of International Schools NEASC New England Association of Schools and Colleges WASC The Western Association of Schools and Colleges School associations AAIE Association for the Advancement of International Education COBIS Council of British International Schools EARCOS East Asia Regional Council of Schools ECIS ECI Schools FOBISIA Federation of British International Schools in Asia Curricula Aus Australian National Curriculum BI Bilingual IB International Baccalaureate Diploma Programme Mon Montessori MYP Middle Years Programme Nat National Curriculum PYP Primary Years Programme UK UK National Curriculum US US National Curriculum Examinations AICE Advanced International Certificate of Education AP Advanced Placement GCE A General Certificate of Education - Advanced Level GCE AS General Certificate of Education - Advanced Subsidiary GCSE General Certificate of Education IBDP International Baccalaureate IGCSE International General Certificate of Education SAT Scholastic Aptitude Test SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 67 Other abbreviations 68 GDP Gross Domestic Product GDP (PPP) Gross Domestic Product Purchasing Power Parity SKR Shangri-Lanian Krugerrand TFR Total Fertility Rate USD United States Dollar SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 Figures Figure 1 - The global market, historical and projected Figure 2 - International schools in Southern Asia Figure 3 - Students in Southern Asia’s schools Figure 4 - Population Figure 5 - Population composition Figure 6 - Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Figure 7 - Projections by age, 2010 - 2050 Figure 8 - Nationals and non-nationals in Shangri-La, 2010 Figure 9 - Gross domestic product growth Figure 10 - Monthly average household income by decile group Figure 11 - Schools, students and teaching staff by district Figure 12 - Schools, students and teaching staff growth in Shangri-La Figure 13 - Average annual fee (USD) Figure 14 - Total annual fee income (USD million) Figure 15 - International school size (by student enrolment) Figure 16 - Percentage of schools by size of student enrolment Figure 17 - Schools offering each age range Figure 18 - Students at schools offering each age range Figure 19 - Schools offering each age range Figure 20 - Students at schools offering each age range Figure 21 - Schools offering each age range Figure 22 - Students at schools offering each age range Figure 23 - Schools offering each curriculum Figure 24 - Schools offering each examination Figure 25 - Schools offering each curriculum by district Figure 26 - Schools offering each examination by district Figure 27 - Student nationalities Figure 28 - Staff nationalities Figure 29 - Student nationalities at schools offering UK curricula Figure 30 - Student nationalities at schools offering US curricula Figure 31 - Student nationalities at schools offering the IBDP Figure 32 - Annual lower & upper salaries at premium international schools Figure 33 - Staff benefits offered at premium schools Figure 34 - Facilities at premium international schools Figure 35 - Organisation type Figure 36 - Profit status Figure 37 - Governing bodies Figure 38 - Capacity utilisation analysed by curriculum Figure 39 - Waiting lists at premium schools SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 8 9 9 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 34 42 42 43 43 43 46 47 48 49 49 49 51 52 69 Tables Table 1 - Membership of associations Table 2 - Accreditation bodies and accredited schools Table 3 - Membership of school groups Table 4 - Tuition fees at premium international schools Table 5 - Additional fees Table 6 - Average annual salaries split by curriculum Table 7 - Staff benefits offered at premium schools, split by curriculum Table 8 - Enrolment and capacity at premium schools Table 9 - Waiting lists at premium schools, split by curriculum 70 35 35 36 44 45 46 47 50 52 SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 References This page contains the sources of material used in the report. SHANGRI-LA MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2014-2015 ∙ COPYRIGHT © ISC RESEARCH 2015 71 About ISC Research Part of the International School Consultancy Group Independent, unrivalled market intelligence on the world’s international schools ISC Market Intelligence Reports · · · · · · · · Abu Dhabi China - Beijing and Tianjin China - Shanghai China (excl. 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