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A Knowledge System for Decision Support in the “Digital Oil Field” Roar Fjellheim Computas AS Vollsveien 9, Postbox 482 1327 Lysaker, Norway E-mail: [email protected] Abstract The AKSIO project is developing an integrated operations system to achieve cost efficient drilling and increased recovery from offshore oilfields. The system will provide timely and contextual knowledge for work processes. It supports decision-making by continuously updating an assessment of the drilling situation and ranking the available options for actions. AKSIO supports collaborative work in teams with members from the offshore platform, onshore operations centre, individual specialists, and suppliers. It links databases, applications, specialist knowledge networks, and real-time data from the field to a visual representation of the work process, situation, and decision context. The concept is to be demonstrated at an Onshore Support Centre (OSC), equipped with fiber-optic links to the field and state-of-the-art display and communication facilities. Introduction Knowledge and decisions The management of offshore oil & gas fields, in the North Sea and elsewhere, is moving towards integrated operations, i.e. integrated work processes (including planning, drilling & well operations, production, and maintenance), real-time data from the field, on-shore operation centres, and massive use of IT for on-line monitoring, analysis, and decision tasks. This concept is also known as the “digital oil field” or “e-field” REF. For integrated operations to succeed, it is critically important to provide appropriate and timely knowledge to decision-making personnel involved in drilling operations. The challenge is to provide support in a situation with decreasing personnel levels and higher reliance on individual expert resources. AKSIO focuses on knowledge and IT-enabled knowledge management (KM) for successful implementation of the integrated operations concept. Knowledge is recognized as a critical resource for achieving business results in the oil & gas industry, but KM is often not well connected to core work processes (Fjellheim 2003). KM research focuses on issues like communities-of-practice, narratives, innovation, organizational issues, as well as purely IToriented aspects. In the AKSIO project, Semantic Web technology is being explored as a foundation for building more intelligent knowledge support to operations (Gil et al. 2004). Improved drilling technology and more cost efficient drilling are keys to increasing the recovery rate and lifetime of an oil field. Better utilization of drilling data can be obtained through more intelligent, multi discipline well construction processes – in planning, operations, operation follow up and support, and post drilling analysis. To achieve this one needs good data availability, userfriendly systems, and trend-breaking work processes. Existing systems can be linked together to form the fundament for tomorrow's work processes, each part representing an "island" waiting to be linked to fully utilize integrated operations, onshore operations support centre or visualization rooms regarding drilling. Particular attention is paid to models for rational decision-making in the drilling process. Current practice overemphasizes short-term benefits (e.g. short drilling duration), at the expense of longer term benefits (expected lifespan and oil recovery from a well). One reason is that longer term aspects are not well supported by existing tools and work processes. In a study made for an oil field in the North Sea, a decision model for value creation based on real option theory was developed (Hanssen, Bakken, and Nordby 2003). Conventional value-based management metrics focus on calendar-year profits, shortterm production and increased reserves booked. Such measures do not honor the critical elements of risk assessment, decision robustness and real option identification. In the study, the predominant value was created through assessment of technical feasibility, timing optimization, and tailoring well design. Oil companies must actively seek, develop, monitor and act upon their future opportunities, i.e. cultivate their real options portfolio in an adaptive manner. Real Option valuation is to appreciate the value of flexibility inherent in a project. It can be used to benefit from the time flexibility of a decision or, to identify and secure a back-up location for a high-risk drilling target. To secure that the project teams constantly focus on robust and flexible planning, management metrics are recommended to have a better balance between cash flow monitoring and opportunity monitoring. This is increasingly important as fields mature (Saputelli et al. 2003). Design concepts The major aspects of the AKSIO concept are illustrated in Fig. 2. Engineers and other decision-making staff at the OSC perform work tasks as part of certain work processes. To make the best decisions, they access data sources (historical and real-time data), use specific IT tools, and interrogate colleagues in knowledge networks for specific pieces of knowledge. Knowledge must be timely and contextual relative to the decision task and work process at hand (Gollery 2002). Knowledge networks IT tools and data sources Work processes Planning and executing a drilling operation is a highly complex undertaking, and is governed by an overall work process, as indicated in Fig. 1. Decision making drilling team Real-time data Figure 1. The overall work process for a drilling project. The three first stages of the process are all concerned with planning, starting with a business proposal to drill for oil in a certain geological area, and ending with a detailed plan for the operation. Several types of expertise need to cooperate to make a high-quality drilling plan, such as geologists, geophysicists, petrophysicists, drilling engineers, reservoir geologists, etc. The operation phase uses the detailed plan to carry out the actual drilling work. Depending on experience gained during drilling, the detailed plan may be revised “on-thefly”. Such experience is documented in an experience data base and can be used as a basis for the reporting phase as well. The definition of the drilling work process seems to indicate a sequence of steps. However, many of the stages are overlapping, often in order to save time for the subsequent stages. The potential for better integration of planning and operation activities are considerable. In particular, studies have shown that there is a need for improved feedback of knowledge from the operations phase to planning of subsequent drilling projects, as well between the operations phases of different projects. Figure 2. AKSIO combines knowledge management, decision support, and real-time data tracking Functional properties The services to be offered by the AKSIO system include: • Manual and autonomous monitoring of the drilling process – situation assessment • Dynamic and adaptive display of the decision situation and a ranking of available options for actions • Solicited as well as unsolicited (“active”) guidance during performance of work process operations • Assistance in identification of needed information sources (human, databases, documents) • Sustained knowledge creation and sharing (between different fields and work process phases) Services are to be embedded in the tools already used by oil company personnel to carry out their daily duties. Operations scenario References The following brief scenario describes how AKSIO will be used. A team is in the midst of a drilling operation, working at the OSC. The sequence of drilling actions is modeled in AKSIO acting as a work process tool, containing information previously documented in a Main Drilling Program (MDP). AKSIO is kept up to date with actual drilling by being fed real-time data from the field, and is therefore able at all times to give the engineers an up-to-date picture of how actual progress compares to planned progress. Fjellheim, R. 2003. Knowledge Management in the International Oil&Gas Industry – Best Practice. 2nd KM Forum Annual Conference, Oslo, September 2003 At a certain moment, a deviation is detected in drilling progress (reduced speed). Based on displayed information and with diagnostic advice from the system, the team engineers suspect that the cause is an unforeseen change in geology. Since AKSIO is aware of the actual situation, it can quickly formulate a focused search for relevant information in internal databases and experience reports. The engineers may also wish to discuss the situation with other experts, and ask AKSIO to locate experts based on recorded expertise profiles and availability (using “on-line presence” indicators in the IT infrastructure). Communication can be via telephone, video, e-mail, instant messaging, etc. The collected information is fed to a decision support module, which actively tracks the options available to the drilling team, and helps in ranking the options and selecting the best action to take. Conclusions Key innovative elements of AKSIO are real-time knowledge and process management, combined with adaptive decision support. The underlying tools will borrow from emerging Semantic Web technology. AKSIO will enable drilling engineers to make the best informed and optimal decisions, and will bring state-of-the-art decision technology to a new arena. Acknowledgements The AKSIO project is carried out by a team consisting of researchers from Norwegian organizations Statoil ASA, Hydro ASA, Computas AS, Institute of Energy Technology, Det Norske Veritas, The Norwegian University of Science and Technology, and the University Graduate Studies at Kjeller. The project is supported by The Norwegian Research Council through grant PETROMAKS 163365 (2004-2007). Gil. Y.; Deelman, E.; Blythe, J.; Kesselman, C.; and Tangmunarunkit, H. 2004. Artificial Intelligence and Grids: Workflow Planning and Beyond. IEEE Intelligent Systems, 26-33, January/February 2004 Gollery, S.J. 2002. Context Building Information-Centric Decision-Support Systems. 2002 Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Monterey, California, June 2002 Hanssen, T.H.; Bakken, E.: and Nordby, L.H. 2003. Time-lapse Seismic and Real Options: New Measures are Required to Show Value Creation. AAPG International Conference, Barcelona, September 2003 Saputelli, L.; Economides, M.; Nikolaou, M.; and V. Kelessidis, V. 2003. Real-time Decision-making for Value Creation while Drilling. SPE/IADC Middle East Drilling Technology Conference, Abu Dhabi, October 2003