Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Module H5 Session 9 Session 9 Introduction to national accounts Learning objectives At the end of this session the students will be able to describe in general terms the UN System of National Accounts define the main transactions shown in the summary accounts define GDP in terms of both value added and expenditure components understand the difference between market prices and basic prices Introduction In this and subsequent sessions we cover national accounting, with particular emphasis on the key economic concept of gross domestic product (GDP). The primary references are listed in Annex A. In this session, we take a first look at the UN System of National Accounts 1993, which is the international standard for national accounting. Following this, we learn how GDP fits into the system. The UN System of National Accounts (SNA93) What is the SNA? 1.1 The System of National Accounts (SNA) consists of a coherent, consistent and integrated set of macroeconomic accounts, balance sheets and tables based on a set of internationally agreed concepts, definitions, classifications and accounting rules. It provides a comprehensive accounting framework within which economic data can be compiled and presented in a format that is designed for purposes of economic analysis, decision-taking and policy-making. Source: System of National Accounts 1993 Comment: The SNA, in its entirety, is a system designed for the detailed analysis of the most complex economy in the world. It is an ideal system. No country has implemented every aspect of it. Every country (or group of countries) must decide which elements of the system to implement, according to the appropriate balance of the statistical resources SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 9 – Page 1 Module H5 Session 9 available and the needs of users (cost and benefit). In many countries, the basic need is for estimates of gross domestic product (GDP), its components and related aggregates. National accounting is sometimes likened to cooking! To use this analogy, the SNA is like a recipe book for preparing the most sumptuous banquet from the most sophisticated ingredients. For most ordinary people, the result is likely to be indigestible . Nevertheless, it is appropriate to follow the principles of the SNA to prepare a more limited yet satisfying meal from everyday staple produce. The accounts of the system At its heart, the SNA consists of a (large) number of interlocking “accounts”. An account records, for a given aspect of economic life, resources and their use, or (in other words) income and expenditure. They may also record changes in both assets (physical and financial) and liabilities (financial). Accounts usually have balancing items that equalise the two sides of the account and are in themselves meaningful measures of economic performance, often carried down into a subsequent account. The detailed accounts can be consolidated into five major types. There are three main types of accounts that follow one another in sequence. These are: Production account (producing goods and services and generating income) Distribution and use of income accounts (including consumption expenditure and saving) Accumulation accounts (about saving and investment) These accounts are complemented by the following two special types: Goods and services accounts (the supply and use of commodities) Rest of the world account (balance of payments) The system also provides for balance sheets that show stocks of assets and liabilities. The accounts are described in more detail below, using a form of presentation known as “T-accounts”, which show income on the right and expenditure on the left. It may be noted that this form of presentation is rarely used in practice to present the data. It is SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 9 – Page 2 Module H5 Session 9 however useful for understanding the concepts. In the SNA, every transaction has a code and there are illustrative figures. These are shown in the summary accounts below. The production account The production account records the activity of producing goods and services (as defined in the SNA). A production account may be compiled for a single producer, an industry (eg manufacturing) or the whole economy. The balancing item is gross value added (GVA): Code P2 B1 Uses Intermediate consumption Gross value added (GVA) Total use 1,883 1,721 3,604 Code P1 Resources Total output (at basic prices) 3,604 Total resource 3,604 The value of output is entered on the right hand side of the account, and the cost of inputs (intermediate consumption) on the left hand side; the balancing item is GVA. The GVA of a producer or an industry is a measure of its contribution to the gross domestic product. This account is not dissimilar from a business profit and loss account, except that the latter normally shows sales instead of output, total costs instead of just intermediate consumption, and net profit (or loss) as the balancing item instead of value added. Definitions: Production account P1 Output consists of the value of goods or services that are produced within an establishment that become available for use outside that establishment, plus any goods and services produced for own final use. P2 Intermediate consumption consists of the value of the goods and services consumed as inputs by a process of production, excluding fixed assets whose consumption is recorded as consumption of fixed capital; the goods or services may be either transformed or used up by the production process. B1 Gross value added is the value of output less the value of intermediate consumption. Source: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/glossary.asp?letter=G In the SNA93, total output and gross value added (GVA) are usually measured at “basic” prices, that is excluding any taxes (but including subsidies) on products. When taxes (less subsidies) on products are added to total GVA, we get GDP at market prices: Code B1 B1 SADC Course in Statistics Description Gross value added (GVA) Taxes (less subsidies) on products Gross domestic product (GDP) 1,721 133 1,854 Module H5 Session 9 – Page 3 Module H5 Session 9 Production can be seen as generating income in the form of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, gross mixed income and gross operating surplus. These are the income components of GDP. We return to the subject of GDP later in the session. Distribution and use of income accounts The detailed distribution and use of income accounts show the types of income generated from production, how they are distributed and re-distributed, and finally how they are used by consumers for expenditure on goods and services. The detailed accounts show the transactions between the institutional sectors of the economy (see Annex B for the definitions of the sectors). These accounts are known as sector accounts. At national level the consolidated account shows how GDP (regarded as income) is supplemented by primary income from abroad (less any paid abroad) and by current transfers from abroad (less any sent abroad) to finance final consumption and saving. Optionally, consumption of fixed capital may be deducted to obtain net national disposable income: Definitions of the transactions in these accounts are given in Annex C. The balancing item on this account is net saving. Code P3/4 B8 Uses Final consumption Net saving 1,399 233 Code B1 D4 D7 K1 Net national disposable income 1,632 Resources Gross domestic product Primary income from abroad less income paid abroad Current transfers from abroad less transfers sent abroad less Consumption of fixed capital Net national disposable income 1,854 70 -40 9 -39 -222 1,632 Accumulation accounts The accumulation accounts (a summary version is given here) show how net saving, capital transfers and net borrowing/lending from the rest of the world, are used to finance net domestic investment (capital formation): Code P5 K1 Uses Gross fixed capital formation Change in inventories Consumption of fixed capital Net domestic investment 386 28 -222 Code B8 B9 192 Resources Net saving Capital transfers (net) Net borrowing from rest of world 233 -3 -38 Net domestic investment 192 This completes the main sequence of SNA accounts. SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 9 – Page 4 Module H5 Session 9 Goods and services account The goods and services accounts (sometimes called commodity flow accounts) are very different. They show, for every product (or group of products), the total value of supplies and the total value of demand. Because every product that is imported or locally produced is used somehow, the two sides of the account must balance. At national level, combining all goods and services, the account looks like this: Code P7 P1 D21 D31 Supply Imports of goods & services Total output at basic prices Taxes on products (less subsidies) 499 3,604 141 -8 Code P2 P3/4 P5 P6 Total supply 4,236 Demand Intermediate consumption Final consumption Fixed capital formation Change in inventories Exports of goods & services Total use 1,883 1,399 386 28 540 4,236 On the left hand side, the values of imports and the total output (local production) of goods and services represent the supply. However, to arrive at the market value of the products, taxes on products have to be added (and any subsidies subtracted). On the right hand side is what happens to the available goods and services. First, they may be brought by other businesses (intermediate consumption). Alternatively, they may be consumed by households and also by government and non-profit institutions serving households (final consumption). Or they may be capital goods (buildings, machinery and equipment: fixed capital formation); this category may also include intangible assets such as software systems. If products are not used immediately, they will be temporarily added to inventories and subtracted again later (changes in inventories). Finally some goods and services are sold to non-residents (exports). These accounts differ from the production accounts in an important way. Whereas the figures in the production account can come – in theory at least – from each producer, the data for each element in the goods and services account have to come from a variety of sources. When estimates are made using the different sources, there are very likely to be discrepancies between the supply and demand as well as some gaps, because of limitations in the data. Such discrepancies are statistical, not real. To balance the accounts, national accountants have to fill the gaps and adjust those figures judged to be less reliable. Compiling such balanced accounts is therefore a key tool for ensuring consistency and coherence in the estimates of GDP. SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 9 – Page 5 Module H5 Session 9 Rest of the world account The remaining flow account of the SNA is the rest of the world (RoW) account. This account brings together all “external” transactions included in the previous accounts. It is essentially the same as the balance of payments, seen from the viewpoint of the RoW. Code P6 D4 D7 D9 Uses by RoW Exports Primary income from abroad Current transfers from abroad Capital transfers from abroad Total 540 70 9 1 620 Code P7 D4 D7 D9 B9 Resources of RoW Imports Primary income paid abroad Current transfers sent abroad Capital transfers sent abroad Net lending to rest of world Total 499 40 39 4 38 620 Accounting identities One of the most fascinating aspects of national accounting is the way the accounts have to balance. If you look at all four of the above accounts, taken together, you will see that every entry appears twice: once on the left and once on the right (or once negative, if on the same side). If all the accounts are “consolidated”, there will be nothing left! The accounting structure of the SNA thus provides a comprehensive framework for compiling and presenting economic activity in a way that, if fully exploited, ensures the coherence and consistency that are important attributes of a quality dataset. Exercise 1 In which other accounts do these external transactions appear? Code External transaction P6/7 Imports and exports D4 Primary income D7 Current transfers D9 Capital transfers B9 Net lending SADC Course in Statistics Account Module H5 Session 9 – Page 6 Module H5 Session 9 More about GDP When, at national level, total output in the goods and services account is replaced by its components from the production account, we have the following: Code P7 P2 B1 D21 D31 Supply Imports of goods/services Intermediate consumption Gross value added Taxes on products (less subsidies) 499 1,883 1,721 133 Total supply 4,236 Code P2 P3/4 P5 P6 Demand Intermediate consumption Household final consumption NPISH final consumption Government final consumption Fixed capital formation Change in inventories Exports of goods & services Total use 1,883 1,399 386 28 540 4,236 Now, intermediate consumption on both sides of the account are identical and can be cancelled, while imports can be moved from the left-hand side to be subtracted from the right hand side. The result of this process of “consolidation” is the following: Code B1 D21 D31 Production Gross value added Taxes on products (less subsidies) 1,721 133 Code P3/4 P5 P6 P7 Total GDP 1,854 Expenditure Final consumption Gross fixed capital formation Change in inventories Exports of goods & services less Imports of g&s Total GDP 1,399 386 28 540 -499 1,854 This account shows GDP as measured from the production (or income) approach on the left-hand side, and GDP as measured from the “expenditure” approach on the right-hand side of the account. Definitions: GDP (at market prices) GDP (expenditure) is the sum of the value of final consumption, gross capital formation and exports of goods and services, less the value of imports of goods and services. GDP (output) is the sum of the gross value added of all resident producers, measured at basic prices, plus taxes (less subsidies) on products. GDP (income) is the sum of compensation of employees, taxes (less subsidies) on production and imports, gross mixed income and gross operating surplus. Source http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/glossary.asp?letter=G Although there are various possible valuations of GDP, in order to avoid confusion it is recommended that GDP be always quoted “at market prices”. Gross value added is usually valued at basic prices. SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 9 – Page 7 Module H5 Session 9 Definitions: Market prices and basic prices Market prices for transactions are the amounts of money willing buyers pay to acquire something from willing sellers. The basic price is the amount receivable by the producer from the purchaser for a unit of a good or service produced as output minus any tax payable, and plus any subsidy receivable, on that unit as a consequence of its production or sale. Source as above Examples of these taxes on products are import duties, excise duties and (non-deductible) value added tax (VAT). If no taxes are payable (or subsidies receivable) on a sale, which is often the case, then the basic price and the market price are the same. For marketed goods, there is another difference between basic prices and market prices, resulting from the treatment of trade and transport margins. While these margins are part of the market price of the goods, at basic prices they are not. Instead, they are treated as the separate output (at basic prices) of trade and/or transport services. At market prices, the value of this separate output is considered to be zero, with the result that this difference disappears from the total value of all goods and services. GDP and the SNA 1.68 The SNA consists of a coherent, consistent set of macroeconomic accounts and tables designed for a variety of analytical and policy purposes. Nevertheless, certain key aggregates of the System, such as GDP and GDP per head of population, have acquired an identity of their own and are widely used by analysts, politicians, the press, the business community and the public at large as summary, global indicators of economic activity and welfare. Movements of such aggregates, and their associated price and volume measures, are used to evaluate the overall performance of the economy and hence to judge the relative success or failure of economic policies pursued by Governments. Source: System of National Accounts 1993 §1.68 The SNA goes on to point out that GDP is a measure of production, which is “…important because it largely determines how much a country can afford to consume and it also affects the level of employment. The consumption of goods and services, both individually and collectively, is one of the most important factors influencing the welfare of a community…” But, obviously, other things can also affect wellbeing. Comment: In some countries, the GDP itself may be significantly affected in the short term by factors over which the government has little or no control. A severe drought, for SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 9 – Page 8 Module H5 Session 9 instance, may cause the GDP to decrease in real terms (negative growth), but this would normally be followed by a larger than usual increase if the next year was a good one. Exercise 2: Obtain a copy of the Budget Speech to see what was said in Parliament about the GDP last year. Write down the main points. Annex A: Primary references The primary references used in the sessions on the GDP and national accounts more generally are: System of National Accounts 1993, United Nations (et al), New York, 1993 This is the “Blue Book”, the bible of national accountants. It is describes the current international standards for compiling national accounts in the most sophisticated economy. As such it is the key reference for expert national accountants. System of National Accounts 1993 Training Manual, SADC, Gaborone, 1999 This manual provides an introduction to the Blue Book. It is designed for those wishing to study the theory of national accounting in greater detail than is possible in this course. A systems approach to national accounts compilation, United Nations, New York, 1999 This national accounting handbook provides guidance on how to develop national accounts in a systematic way. However it tends to assume the availability of statistical resources far beyond those of most SADC countries. SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 9 – Page 9 Module H5 Session 9 Annex B: Institutional units and sectors An institutional unit is an economic entity capable, in its own right, of owning assets, incurring liabilities and engaging in economic transactions with other entities. These institutional units are grouped together to form institutional sectors, on the basis of their principal functions, behaviour, and objectives: Institutional sectors Non-financial corporations: institutional units which are principally engaged in the production of market goods and non-financial services Financial corporations: institutional units which are principally engaged in financial intermediation or in auxiliary financial activities General government: institutional units which, in addition to fulfilling their political responsibilities and their role of economic regulation, produce principally non-market services (possibly goods) for individual or collective consumption and redistribute income and wealth Households: all physical persons in the economy, with the institutional unit in the household sector consisting of one individual or a group of individuals. According to the criteria given for defining the institutional unit, the household of the owner of an unincorporated enterprise in general includes this enterprise, which is not considered an institutional unit (except under certain conditions). The principal functions of households are the supply of labour, final consumption and, as entrepreneurs, the production of market goods and non-financial (possibly financial) services Non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs): legal entities which are principally engaged in the production of non-market services for households and whose main resources are voluntary contributions by households Source; System of National Accounts 1993 Although not used directly in the context of GDP, these sectors have a fundamental role in the SNA, especially when it comes to disaggregating the distribution and use of income, the accumulation accounts and balance sheets. SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 9 – Page 10 Module H5 Session 9 Annex C: Main transactions Some of the following definitions have been edited to make them more accessible. Primary income from abroad consists of the compensation of employees who are residents but work abroad and property income receivable by residents from abroad Primary income paid abroad consists of the compensation of employees who are non-resident but work for a resident enterprise and property income payable to non-residents. Compensation of employees is the total remuneration, in cash or in kind, payable by an enterprise to an employee in return for work done. Property income consists mainly of interest, dividends and the like, including reinvested earnings on direct foreign investment. National income (not shown in the summary accounts) may be derived from domestic product by adding primary income from abroad and subtracting primary income paid abroad Current transfers A transfer is a transaction in which one institutional unit provides a good, service or asset to another unit without receiving from the latter any good, service or asset in return as counterpart. Current transfers consist of all transfers that are not transfers of capital (see below). National disposable income may be derived from national income by adding current transfers from abroad and subtracting current transfers paid abroad Consumption of fixed capital represents the reduction in the value of the fixed assets used in production during the accounting period resulting from physical deterioration, normal obsolescence or normal accidental damage. This flow may be subtracted from gross domestic product, gross national income, gross national disposable income and gross saving to give net domestic product, net national income, net national disposable income and net saving. Final consumption consists of goods and services used up by individual households or the community to satisfy their individual or collective needs or wants. Saving Saving is disposable income less final consumption. Capital transfers First, a transfer in kind is a capital transfer when it consists of (i) the transfer of ownership of a fixed asset or (ii) the forgiveness of a liability by a creditor when no counterpart is received in return. SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 9 – Page 11 Module H5 Session 9 Second, a transfer of cash is a capital transfer when it is linked to, or conditional on, the acquisition or disposal of a fixed asset (for example, an investment grant) by one or both parties to the transaction. Capital transfers also may be distinguished by being large and infrequent, but they cannot be defined in terms of size or frequency. Gross capital formation (not shown) is measured by the total value of the gross fixed capital formation and changes in inventories. (It also includes acquisitions less disposals of valuables – negligible at national level). Gross fixed capital formation is the total value of a producer’s acquisitions, less disposals, of fixed assets during the accounting period. Fixed assets are tangible or intangible assets produced as outputs from processes of production that are themselves used repeatedly or continuously in other processes of production for more than one year. Changes in inventories (including work-in-progress) consist of changes in: (a) stocks of outputs that are still held by the units that produced them prior to their being further processed, sold, delivered to other units or used in other ways; and (b) stocks of products acquired from other units that are intended to be used for intermediate consumption or for resale without further processing. Net lending (to the rest of the world) is the balancing item in the accumulation account and in the rest of the world account. Negative net lending may also be described as "net borrowing". Main source: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/glossary.asp?letter=G SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 9 – Page 12