Download How do Scientists Forecast Thunderstorms?

How do Scientists Forecast Thunderstorms?
Objective
In the summer, over the Great Plains, weather predictions often call for afternoon
thunderstorms. While most of us use weather forecasts to help pick out what we will wear each
day some people may wonder how meteorologists actually make these predictions. The
following theory and activities will provide some insight into how meteorologists forecast
afternoon thunderstorms.
Why do Thunderstorms Form?
Thunderstorms are characterized by towering cumulonimbus clouds, gusty surface winds,
heavy rain events and sometimes even hail. These storms are also often associated with lighting
and thunder. Thunderstorms form when warm moist air is forced to rise high above the surface.
The three main ingredients needed to make a thunderstorm are warm moist air, unstable
atmospheric conditions and a mechanism that will help trigger the surface air to rise quickly
through the atmosphere. These triggers include strong surface heating, uplift over mountains,
convergence of surface winds, and uplift along weather fronts. (see figure). Although
thunderstorms can occur year-round and at all hours of the day, they are most likely to occur
during the spring and summer in the late afternoon and early evening.
How do Meteorologists predict Thunderstorm Formation?
Twice daily, at 0Z and 12Z (Z stands for Greenwich Mean Time) weather balloons are
launched from locations all over the globe. These balloons carry with them an instrument
package called a radiosonde that measures temperature, pressure, moisture, and windspeed and
direction at multiple levels throughout the atmosphere. As these balloons ascend through the
atmosphere they transmit this information back to computers at the surface. Meteorologist then
plot this information on special diagrams called skew-t log-p diagrams (or just skew-t for short).
From these few variables we can gain an enormous amount of information about the state of the
atmosphere including, stability, vertical velocity, cloud base height, cloud top height etc. This
information can also be used to help forecast whether or not thunderstorms will happen in the
afternoon.
Goals
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Learn how to read/use a Skew-T diagram
Find the cloud layer with a Skew-T. (Where dew point and temperature are the same)
Be able to identify inversions with a Skew-T (strong drop off in dew point and strong
increase in temperature)
Find the Lifted Condensation Level (expected cloud base height)
Find the Level of Free Convection (the height at which a parcel of air becomes positively
buoyant)
CINH - Convective Inhibition
CAPE - Convective Available Potential Energy
1
3
-3
0
K
19
=4
40
6
38
60
32.5
8
35
6
34
30
30
.5
0.
1
22
8
0.
2
kg -
1
g
10
1.
0
1.
5
2
8
20
0
4
3
5
Line of constant
pressure
500–
26
-5
6
6–
W
s=
0.
5
.5
10
Moist adiabatic
lapse rate
5
3
400–
27
7–
15
12
3
28
Pressure (hPa)
1
5
300–
29
8–
30
9–
26
8
1
10
20
40
30
35
40
45
45
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
0
-1
5
-1
0
-2
5
-2
0
-3
-3
40
Line of constant
temperature
1000–
5
0–
900–
35
°C
(line of constant
potential temperature)
800–
1–
30
30
=-
2–
25
0
-2
Saturated vapor
mixing ratio
Dry adiabatic
lapse rate
5
w
700–
-2
3–
30
15
5
-1
9
600–
24
4–
12
5
25
0
-1
5–
Temperature (°C)
Courtesy of Jennifer Adams, COLA
filename: blank_skewt_v6r3.ai
proof date: 01.19.06
web figure, rgb 7.3 x 8.1”
2
Temperature (°C)
0
31
10–
20
31
0
Height of Standard Atmosphere (km)
25
6
7
C
32
10°
11–
-1
0
.5
27
20
200–
33
12–
37.5
°C
= 35
40
13–
-2
0
w
1
37
50
14–
-4
0
e
80
0°C
=7
15–
-5
0
-6
0
-7
0
-8
0
100–
-9
0
16–
-1
0
0
Skew T – In p Chart
What is a skew-t log-p diagram?
The Skew-T Log-P diagram offers a way to look at the measurements made with a Radiosonde.
Isobars - Lines of constant pressure. They run horizontally from left to right and are labeled on
the left side of the diagram. Pressure is given in increments of 100 hPa and ranges from 1050 to
100 hPa. The spacing between the isobars increases logarithmically in the vertical (thus the
name log-p)
Isotherms - Lines of constant temperature. They run from the southwest to the northeast (thus the
name skew) across the diagram. Temperature is given in increments of 10º Celsius. These lines
are labeled on the bottom of the diagram.
Saturated vapor mixing ratio lines - lines of equal mixing ratio (mass of water vapor divided by
mass of dry air) given in units of grams of water vapor per kilogram of dry air. These lines run
from the southwest to the northeast and are dashed. The slope of the saturated vapor mixing
ratio lines are steeper than the isotherms. They are also labeled in the bottom of the diagram.
Wind barbs - Wind speed and direction are given on the right side of the diagram and are plotted
as wind barbs.
Dry adiabatic lapse rate (DALR) - These lines represent the rate in which a rising unsaturated
parcel of air will cool (10º Celsius per kilometer) These lines slope from the southeast to the
northwest and gradually arch to the North with height.
Moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALR) - These lines represent the rate in which a rising saturated
parcel of air will cool (depends on moisture content of air). These lines slope from the south
toward the northwest. The MALR increases with height since cold air has less moisture content
than warm air.
Environmental sounding - The temperature of the air measured with a radiosonde. This is the
jagged line running south to north on the diagram. This like is always to the right of the
dewpoint plot.
Dewpoint plot - This is the jagged line running south to north. It is the vertical plot of dewpoint
temperature. This line is always to the left of the environmental sounding.
Parcel lapse rate - The temperature path a parcel would take if it raised from the surface through
the atmosphere without mixing with the surrounding environment. The laps rate follows the
DALR until saturation, then follows the MALR. This line is used to calculate the LFC, the LCL,
CAPE, and CINH.
3
Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) - If you lift a parcel of air from the surface through the
atmosphere and you do not allow this parcel of air to interact with its surrounding environment,
the LCL is the level where the idealized parcel of air will become saturated and clouds will form.
Level of Free Convection (LFC) - Following the same parcel of air, the LFC is the level at which
the temperature of the parcel surpasses the environmental temperature. At this point, the parcel
of air will become positively buoyant and can freely convect (or rise) without mechanical
forcing.
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) - CAPE is the amount of energy a parcel of air
would have if lifted vertically through the atmosphere. CAPE is effectively the positive
buoyancy of an air parcel and represents atmospheric instability. CAPE can be calculated using
the Skew-T Log-P diagram, where CAPE is the area between the Environmental Sounding and
the Parcel Sounding when the parcel is warmer than its environment.
Convective Inhibition (CIN) - indicates the amount of energy that will prevent a parcel of air
from rising from the surface to the LFC. CIN can be considered negative CAPE
Parcel
Sounding
Environmental
Temperature
Dewpoint
Temperature
CAPE
LFC
LCL
4
CIN
Questions/Activities
Use the two skew-t diagrams in this packet and the lessons learned during this class to answer
the following questions. Sounding #1 is from Dallas/Fort Worth Texas on May 14, 2008 at 7 pm
(Page 7). Sounding #2 is from Denver Colorado on October 21 2007 at 5 am (Page 8).
1) Do you think the Dewpoint temperature can ever be larger than the actual temperature? Why
or why not?
2) What was the surface pressure in Denver?
3) What was the surface temperature in Denver? What was the dewpoint temperature at the
surface in Denver?
4) What was the surface pressure in Dallas/Fort Worth?
5) What was the surface temperature in Dallas/Fort Worth? What was the dewpoint temperature
at the surface in Denver?
5
6) Is there a cloud layer in the sounding from Denver? What about Dallas/Fort Worth? How
can you tell?
7) Is there an inversion in the “snap shot” of the atmosphere for Denver? What about for Dallas/
Fort Worth? How can you tell?
8) Comparing the idealized parcel trajectories in each sounding (the red curves), in which
sounding do you think deep convection was more likely to occur?
6
Sounding #1
Dallas/Fort Worth Texas
May 14 2008
00Z (7 pm local time)
**** The red curve represents the path an idealized parcel of air would follow
if kicked up from the surface ****
7
Sounding #2
Denver Colorado
October 31 2007
12Z (5 am local time)
8