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Common trait genetics Chris Cotsapas Traits and (sub?)phenotypes • Categorical – Disease/healthy – Super-skinny/skinny/normal/fat/super-fat • Continuous – Weight, height, BMI, WHR, LDL – Gene expression, methylation, DNase I Heritability • Proportion of differences due to genetic factors – From family and twin studies • Broad sense (H2) – Additive, dominant and epistatic • Narrow sense (h2) – Additive only • How many genetic factors explain heritability? – Mendel v Galton Mendelian – one variant, “all” H2/h2 Necessary and sufficient (expressivity, penetrance) Galton - multigenicity Common and rare variant hypotheses GENETIC STUDY DESIGN Family or cohort study? Genetic data SNP Ind1 Ind2 Ind3 Ind4 1 AA AG AA GG 2 TC CC CC CC 3 GT GG TT GG 4 AC CC AC AC 5 AT AA TT AA Linkage analysis and TDT Transmission Disequilibrium Test Case/control association • H0: Frequency of ‘A1’ is independent of case/control status. A1 A2 Cases w x Controls y z c2 = (O-E)2/E [Pearson’s chi-Square] Odds Ratio (OR): Odds of Allele occurring in cases to the odds of Allele occurring in controls: w/x y/z = wz xy Power Small sample size Large sample size Freq Freq Cases Controls Cases Controls Regression analysis • Analysis of the relationship between a dependent or outcome variable (phenotype) with one or more independent or predictor variables (SNP genotype) Logistic Regression ln( pi ) ( 1 - pi ) = b 0 + b 1 Xi + e i Continuous Trait Value Linear Regression Yi = b0 + b1Xi + ei Slope: b1 b0 0 Pro tip Z2 = χ2 1 Number of A1 Alleles 2 QQ plot P < 5e-8 Manhattan plot META-ANALYSIS Combining data – meta-analysis Replication cohort GWA S GWAS GWAS Combine statistics • Fisher’s method: P <-> Z • Sum of χ2 (or Z2) k = number of studies Efficient meta-analysis POWER wi is each test weight wt is the sum of the weights WARNING: must be same phenotype and scale (e.g. height in cm in all studies) Regression coefficients Bi = study beta; σ2 = variance of each individual betas OBSERVATIONS http://www.ebi.ac.uk/fgpt/gwas/images/timeseries/gwas-latest.png Effect sizes – T1D Petretto, Liu and Aitman NG 2007 Bulik-Sullivan et al NG 2015 Miki et al NG 2010 Fine mapping strategies • If a SNP is causal, then r2 should predict association of other SNPs in the area: Kichaev et al. PLoS Genet. 2014 LD score Bulik-Sullivan et al. NG 2015 Maurano et al Science 2012 GWAS signals are enriched in tissue-specific gene regulatory sequence Gusev et al ASHG 2014 DRILLING DOWN MS GWAS risk effect: NFKB1 locus 97 MS risk loci; IMSGC, Nat Genet 2013 MS patients show altered NFκB signaling in CD4+ T cells Figure 1. Naïve CD4 cells from patients with MS exhibit increased phospho-p65 NFκB. Flow cytometry of PBMCs from age-matched healthy + T cells show control (HC) CD4 and relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) ex vivo higher patients stained for CD4, CD45RA, CD45RO, and p-p65 STM 2015) pS529 p65 (Housley NFκB. MFI of et p65al, results are shown gated on naïve CD4+CD45RA+CD45RO- T-cells. CD4+ T cells from MS patients proliferate more rapidly after stimulus (Kofler et al JCI 2014) MS risk effect near NFKB1 alters signaling in CD4+ cells Nuclear localization rs228614 p= 0.037 p50 NFkB 30 20 10 0 Housley, STM 2015 GG AA p= 0.05 30 GG AA 20 10 0 0 15 30 Minutes GWAS loci harbor many NFκB genes Will Housley, David Hafler Model: NFκB signaling variation p50 External stimulus P-p50 p65 *NFκB Activation Proliferation Survival *NFκB Activation Proliferation Survival Broader phenotype? p50 P-p50 GV in NFκB pathway New gene activation patterns by NFκB GV in NFκB TFBS p65 IκB p50 p65 Resting state Stimulus Phosphorylation Nuclear translocation P rs228614-A carriers Low cytoplasmic NFκB Gene activation P Low levels P Moderate transcription P rs228614-G carriers P High cytoplasmic NFκB P P P High levels High activation threshold Moderate proliferation Distinct CD4+ subset fates P High transcription P Cell phenotype P Other target activation Low activation threshold High proliferation Plastic CD4+ subset fates