Download The World Bank Terms of Reference vulnerability of the Bangladeshi

THE WORLD BANK
TERMS OF REFERENCE
VULNERABILITY OF THE BANGLADESHI TRANSPORT NETWORK TO NATURAL DISASTERS AND
CLIMATE CHANGE, AND POTENTIAL ADAPTATION OPTIONS
A. PROJECT BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES
The Sustainable Development Chief Economist’s office oversees technical work and analysis from the
World Bank Group’s Global Practices that draws together the best expertise from across the institution
and its partners to help countries tackle their most complex challenges in the area of sustainable
development and embark upon greener growth pathways to attain this level of sustainability. The
cluster of global practices includes the following practices: agriculture, energy and extractives;
environment and natural resources; social, urban, rural and resilience; transport and ICT; and water.
This project will focus on assessing the vulnerability of the Bangladeshi transport network to natural
disasters and future climate change impacts, and on looking for cost-efficient adaptation options.
In Bangladesh, transport connectivity is challenged by its geography (in particular by the presence
of four major rivers: Ganges, Meghna, Jamuna, and Padma) and by a predominantly rural population
distribution. In addition, the country is exposed to recurrent floods that can create severe disruptions
in some segments of the transport network, with potentially high economic and social consequences.
The country also has to face, among other challenges, changes in river morphology, sedimentation
issues, and storm surges. Yet, providing reliable connectivity is key for reducing poverty, increasing
access to markets, improving trade competitiveness and achieving inclusive green growth.
Despite the natural disasters that challenge the Bangladeshi complex transport network, and despite
the fact that disruptions may increase in the near to long-term because of climate change, exponential
demand for mobility in Bangladesh requires rapid build-up of new infrastructure and upgrade of
existing infrastructure. Decision-makers have to develop the transport network, ensure that it keeps
performing well under any circumstance and that the costs associated with potential disruptions
remain minimal. It is important to guide this transition to make sure the infrastructure that is being
built now will keep supporting economic growth and poverty alleviation for the next decades.
Objectives
This analytical study intents to help Bangladeshi decision makers prioritize and compare alternative
interventions in the transport network taking into account the network’s adaption to climate events.
This approach implicitly implies that interventions –investment, maintenance and other adaption
options— will be assessed through an economic lens as much as their impact on increasing resilience
of the road network uncertain natural hazards.
It is expected that this study will analyze the criticality and vulnerability of the transport network in
Bangladesh. It will build on a small but growing body of work on how to deal with the deep uncertainties
pertaining to future road disruptions (e.g. because of climate change), future traffic demand or other
socio-economic variables, when making investment decisions (Halim, Kwakkel, and Tavasszy 2016;
Espinet, Schweikert, and Chinowsky 2015). In addition, it will address 3 important methodological
concerns in terms of how to (i) measure economic costs of disruption, (ii) model traffic reallocation in
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road networks once a link or a road is partially or totally disrupted, (iii) make the method replicable and
introducing explicit linkages to current World Bank operations/interventions selection and design.
B. SCOPE OF WORK
In order to guide decision makers in Bangladesh, the consultants will combine spatial and economic
analyses to identify the most critical assets in the transport network and the best investment options
to increase the performance and resilience of the network. To deal with the uncertainty on the
future natural hazards, but also traffic and local economic activities, the consultant is expected to
apply approaches and tools labeled Decision Making under Uncertainty (DMU) (Kalra et al. 2014;
Haasnoot et al. 2013; Lempert and Kalra 2011). These approaches will properly deal with the
uncertainty on impacts of future natural hazards, as well as the uncertainty on future traffic demand.
These approaches are currently being developed to manage deep uncertainty and disagreement in
World Bank projects. DMU approaches do not intent to predict the future but they rather assess the
performance of alternative network configurations under many possible futures. DMU tools identify
the vulnerabilities of different interventions and allow decision-makers to choose the most robust
options.
Key questions include: (1) What are the potential economic and social costs associated with
disruptions of the current transport network? (2) Where are the critical segments of the network that
deem built-in resilience and/or redundancy? (3) What are the most robust alternatives (maintenance,
redundancy, traffic management, alternative construction standards, temporary bridges, sediment
management etc) to reduce the vulnerability of critical segments to future climate events?
C. ACTIVITIES
Through this TOR, the consultant will help the World Bank answer the questions presented above. In
particular, the consultants will:
(1) Build a model of the transport network in Bangladesh; the complexity of the model will depend
on data availability, but it is expected to include at least primary and secondary roads, bridges
and waterways. Calculate several relevant performance metrics for the road network
comparing infrastructure-based metrics with economic- and social- based metrics (e.g.
cumulated road user cost on least cost routes, average number of kilometres for the least-cost
routes, measures of redundancy, total network cost combining road user cost with traffic flows)
(2) quantify the relative criticality of different assets (e.g. road links and bridges), based on the
effect of a link disruption on the performance indicators calculated previously; here
assumptions will have to be made on re-routing and on the proportion of vehicles who may
abandon their journey;
(3) Assess the expected economic losses associated with natural disasters disruptions, in many
different scenarios, for the most critical assets in the network; identify the uncertainties that
matter the most for these expected losses. Here several uncertainties may have to be taken
into account, including climate change, duration of disruptions and future traffic demand.
(4) Assess the robustness of different intervention options for the critical assets, in order to
increase the resilience of the network; assess the trade-offs between multiple criteria.
(5) Help the World Bank team provide recommendations to the Government of Bangladesh on
investment priorities in the transport network.
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Through this TOR, the consultants will also participate in one or two workshops in Bangladesh, first to
better scope the analysis and then to discuss the results with the Government of Bangladesh.
D. DELIVERABLES/SPECIFIC OUTPUTS EXPECTED FROM CONSULTANT
This analysis will be mostly delivered in the form of data files and a memo outlining the data, methods
used and results. The models built to carry the analysis will also be delivered to the World Bank team
at the end of the project.
The duration of this consultancy is 12 months. Any modifications to this timeframe must be agreed
upon in writing with the relevant World Bank team. The firm will be paid upon presentation of invoices
and contingent upon timely submission of agreed deliverables.
Payment
Deliverable
Weeks
after
signing
contract
1
Deliverable 1. Work Program
1
10%
2
Deliverable 2. Model and performance metrics for the transport
network (activity 1)
12
25%
3
Deliverable 3. Scoping workshop on location
14
15%
Deliverable 4. Identified critical links or corridors and
quantification of their impact on the functionality of the whole
network (or sub-network) (activity 2):
 Draft report
 Data files
Deliverable 5. Expected annual economic losses associated with
natural disasters disruptions (activity 3):
 Draft report
 Data files
Deliverable 6. Economic analysis to select robust alternative
interventions to increase resilience of the network or subnetwork over the identified critical and vulnerable links and/or
corridors (activity 4):
 Draft report
 Data files
24
4
35
Payment (% of
total)
20%
45
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5
6
Deliverable 7. Prioritization of alternative interventions in various
links of the network (activity 5):
 Draft report
 Data files
Deliverable 8. Validation workshop on location
Deliverable 9. Final consolidated report, responding to WB and
authorities comments. The Deliverable includes data files and
models.
49
20%
50
52
10%
a) Acceptance Criteria for Deliverables
All deliverables must be approved by the World Bank before any payment can be effective. The World
Bank will verify that the work is completed in accordance with agreed upon protocols. The World Bank
reserves the right to adjust remaining payments if agreed upon protocols are not followed or if the
quality is not as specified in this TOR.
b) Supervision
The consultancy firm will report directly to Julie Rozenberg and Cecilia Briceno-Garmendia from the
World Bank team.
E. SPECIFIC INPUTS TO BE PRESENTED BY THE CLIENT
Data required (when it exists).
F. DESIRED QUALIFICATIONS
The selected consulting firm and key personnel shall possess the following qualifications:
 Demonstrated experience in carrying out studies similar to Robust Decision Making
 Demonstrated experience in network analysis and GIS-based modeling
 Experience working with the transport sector
 Demonstrated strong capacity in data management and quality controls.
 Demonstrated experience in logistics analysis and policy advice
 Demonstrated capacity to deliver clear, well-organized reports and data in English.
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G. CONFIDENTIALITY STATEMENT
All data and information received from the World Bank Group (WBG) for the purpose of this assignment
are to be treated confidentially and are only to be used in connection with the execution of these Terms
of Reference (TOR). All intellectual property rights arising from the execution of these TOR are assigned
to the WBG. The contents of written materials obtained and used in this assignment may not be
disclosed to any third parties without the expressed advance written authorization of the WBG
H. OWNERSHIP OF MATERIALS
Any deliverables under this assignment in any form will be the property of the WBG including any
communications material developed under this assignment. All project deliverables, including reports
and other creative work called for by these TOR, in written, graphic, audio, visual, electronic or other
forms shall acknowledge the support of the WBG. WBG logo should be included in all documents
published and distributed. All events that take place in order to extract information, to validate the
results, or to distribute the documents, should have a WBG logo. WBG can use the accumulated
experience of this project to support other projects in any other countries in the world.
I. REFERENCES
Espinet, Xavier, Amy Schweikert, and Paul Chinowsky. 2015. “Robust Prioritization Framework for
Transport Infrastructure Adaptation Investments under Uncertainty of Climate Change.” ASCE-ASME
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, E4015001.
Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Jan H. Kwakkel, Warren E. Walker, and Judith ter Maat. 2013. “Dynamic Adaptive
Policy Pathways: A Method for Crafting Robust Decisions for a Deeply Uncertain World.” Global
Environmental Change. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801200146X.
Halim, Ronald A., Jan H. Kwakkel, and Lóránt A. Tavasszy. 2016. “A Scenario Discovery Study of the
Impact of Uncertainties in the Global Container Transport System on European Ports.” Futures.
Accessed April 19. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2015.09.004.
Kalra, Nidhi, Stephane Hallegatte, Robert Lempert, Casey Brown, Adrian Fozzard, Stuart Gill, and
Ankur Shah. 2014. Agreeing on Robust Decisions: New Processes for Decision Making under Deep
Uncertainty. Policy Research Working Papers. The World Bank.
http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/1813-9450-6906.
Lempert, Robert J., and Nidhi Kalra. 2011. “Managing Climate Risks in Developing Countries with
Robust Decision Making.” World Resources Report. Washington DC, USA.
http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP201100254.html.
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