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Introduction to Basic Statistical Methods Note: Underlined headings are active webpage links! 0. Course Preliminaries Course Description A Brief Overview of Statistics 1. Introduction 1.1 Motivation: Examples and Applications 1.2 The Classical Scientific Method and Statistical Inference 1.3 Definitions and Examples 1.4 Some Important Study Designs in Medical Research 1.5 Problems S A M P L E P O P U L A T I O N 2. Exploratory Data Analysis and Descriptive Statistics 2.1 Examples of Random Variables and Associated Data Types 2.2 Graphical Displays of Sample Data • Dotplots, Stemplots,… • Histograms: Absolute Frequency, Relative Frequency, Density 2.3 Summary Statistics • Measures of Center: Mode, Median, Mean,... (+ Shapes of Distributions) • Measures of Spread: Range, Quartiles, Variance, Standard Deviation… 2.4 Summary: Parameters vs. Statistics, Expected Values, Bias, Chebyshev’s Inequality 2.5 Problems 3. Theory of Probability 3.1 Basic Ideas, Definitions, and Properties 3.2 Conditional Probability and Independent Events (with Applications) 3.3 Bayes’ Formula 3.4 Applications • Diagnostic: Sensitivity, Specificity, Predictive Power, ROC curves • Epidemiological: Odds Ratios, Relative Risk 3.5 Problems 4. Classical Probability Distributions 4.1 Discrete Models: Binomial Distribution, Poisson Distribution,… 4.2 Continuous Models: Normal Distribution,… 4.3 Problems 5. Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit Theorem 5.1 Motivation 5.2 Formal Statement and Examples 5.3 Problems 6. Statistical Inference and Hypothesis Testing 6.1 One Sample 6.1.1 Mean (Z- and t-tests, Type I and II Error, Power & Sample Size) 6.1.2 Variance (Chi-squared Test) 6.1.3 Proportion (Z-test) 6.2 Two Samples 6.2.1 Means (Independent vs. Paired Samples, Nonparametric tests) 6.2.2 Variances (F-test, Levene Test) 6.2.3 Proportions (Z-test, Chi-squared Test, McNemar Test) • Applications: Case-Control Studies, Test of Association and Test of Homogeneity of Odds Ratios, Mantel-Haenszel Estimate of Summary Odds Ratio 6.3 Several Samples 6.3.1 Proportions (Chi-squared Test) 6.3.2 Variances (Bartlett’s Test, etc.) 6.3.3 Means (ANOVA, F-test, Multiple Comparisons) 6.4 Problems 7. Correlation and Regression 7.1 Motivation 7.2 Linear Correlation and Regression (+ Least Squares Approximation) 7.3 Extensions of Simple Linear Regression • Transformations (Power, Logarithmic,…) • Multilinear Regression (ANOVA, Model Selection, Drug-Drug Interaction) • Logistic Regression (Dose-Response Curves) 7.4 Problems 8. Survival Analysis 8.1 Survival Functions and Hazard Functions 8.2 Estimation: Kaplan-Meier Product-Limit Formula 8.3 Statistical Inference: Log-Rank Test 8.4 Linear Regression: Cox Proportional Hazards Model 8.5 Problems APPENDIX A1. Basic Reviews Logarithms Perms & Combos A2. Geometric Viewpoint Mean and Variance ANOVA Least Squares Approximation A3. Statistical Inference Mean, One Sample Means & Proportions, One & Two Samples General Parameters & FORMULA TABLES A4. Regression Models Power Law Growth Exponential Growth Multilinear Regression Logistic Regression Example: Newton’s Law of Cooling A5. Statistical Tables Z-distribution t-distribution Chi-squared distribution F-distribution (in progress...) Even genetically identical organisms, such as these inbred mice, can exhibit a considerable amount of variation in physical and/or behavioral characteristics, due to random epigenetic differences in their development. But statistically, how large must such differences be in order to reject random chance as their sole cause, and accept that an alternative mechanism is responsible? Source: Nature Genetics, November 2, 1999.