Download A Water Science Grand Challenge

A Water Science Grand Challenge
Daniel P. Ames, Brigham Young University
March 11, 13
Given that water is required for life, all ecological and human science is based
on either explicit or implicit assumptions about its presence or absence. Because of
this, hydrologists have proposed a number of so-called hydrologic science “grand
challenges” related to, for example, prediction in ungauged basins (Sivapalan 2003),
global terrestrial water monitoring (Wood, et al. 2011), large scale recharge
mapping (Entekhabi 2007), and defining mass flux and energy balance (Zoback
2001). It could be argued that each of these challenges is a sub component of a
single overarching grand challenge in hydrology: “What is the past, present, and
future state of flux of all water everywhere?”
Developing the ability to answer this question – even if only at a cursory level
– would foster inconceivable transformative scientific discoveries in all fields of
earth and life science. For example, paleontologists could tie fossil discoveries more
accurately with hydro-climate regimes; stream ecologists could more accurately
make predictions about biotic presence/absence of species at any location on earth
and at any time in history; water resources scientists could make use forecasts to
estimate water impacts of anticipated changes in water supply due to climate
variability; sociologists and political scientists could more accurately make
predictions about global societal evolution and political change using water and
water related variables; and estimates of recent past, present, and future water flux
could drive regional and national economic models.
Ultimately the ability to synthesize all current and historical observation
databases, records, satellite images, inverse models, and historical predictions
together with massive forward modeling simulations on a global scale would be
required to meet this grand challenge. The question is extreme in its scope and
scale, but the societal benefits would be extreme as well. Accurate estimates of
precipitation, infiltration, evaporation, and flow in ungagged basins will improve
crop management, water supply planning, urban development, climate change
impacts mitigation, and flood disaster preparation and management.
To paraphrase Sivapalan (2003), the hydrologic flux grand challenge “forces
us to deal with questions that are at once, deep, grand, and practical” requiring both
major breakthroughs in fundamental science while addressing urgent practical
problems of immediate benefit to society.
References
Entekhabi, Dara, and Mahta Moghaddam. "Mapping recharge from space: roadmap
to meeting the grand challenge." Hydrogeology Journal 15, no. 1 (2007): 105-116.
Sivapalan, Murugesu. "Prediction in ungauged basins: a grand challenge for
theoretical hydrology." Hydrological Processes 17.15 (2003): 3163-3170.
Wood, Eric F., Joshua K. Roundy, Tara J. Troy, L. P. H. van Beek, Marc FP Bierkens,
Eleanor Blyth, Ad de Roo et al. "Hyperresolution global land surface modeling:
Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water." Water
Resources Research 47, no. 5 (2011): W05301.
Zoback, Mary Lou. "Grand challenges in earth and environmental sciences: Science,
stewardship, and service for the twenty-first century." GSA today (2001): 41.