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Some Simple Models of Labor Market Equilibrium 1. Monopsony and Minimum Wages. Let’s consider an industry in which a single firm employs all the labor. MFC = w(L) + L∙w′(L) w(L) (labor supply) a b wmin w0 pF′(L) = VMP L0 L1 L* L w(L) is the labor supply curve facing the firm (and industry) MFC (marginal factor cost) is the derivative of total labor costs (w(L)∙L) wrt L. VMP is the marginal revenue from another unit of L. The monoponist maximizes profits at point a, where VMP=MFC. It pays a wage of w0 and employs L0 units of labor. This is less than the socially efficient level, L*. Imposing a binding minimum wage at wmin changes the MFC curve to the bold line. The profit-maximizing firm again sets VMP=MFC, which now occurs at point b. The firm now employs L1 units of labor, which is more than before. So both wages and employment rise as a result of the minimum wage law. Note that, at least in the case where L is the firm’s only input, output = F(L) will rise as well. 2 2. Competitive Industry Labor Demand The simplest way to move from the firm and household level to the market is to imagine a fixed number of firms in an industry (endogenous entry decisions of firms can complicate matters), but large enough in number so that each firm takes factor and product prices as given. In this case, it is well known that we can derive an industry level factor demand curve by horizontally summing (i.e. summing over quantities demanded) the demand curves of the individual firms. This yields a market level demand curve of the form LD = LD(w) when we are thinking of a single factor, L in isolation. Theory says it must be downward sloping. More generally, the industry is characterized by a system of factor demand equations of the form: x1 = D1(p, w1 , w2 , … wn) x2 = D2(p, w1 , w2 , … wn) . = …….. (1) ……. xn = Dn(p, w1 , w2 , … wn) where the x’s are industry level input demands, the w’s are input prices, and p is the price of the industry’s output. The derivatives of (1) wrt p and w must satisfy the properties derived for the individual firm’s labor demand (e.g. negative definiteness and symmetry). In sum, the industrylevel factor demand relationship maps prices into quantities and has the same properties as firm-level demand. Definition (Hamermesh 1993): factors i and j and p-complements iff ∂xi/∂wj < 0 in (1). Otherwise they are p-substitutes. In other words, xi and xj are p-complements if an increase in the price of factor j leads firms to use less of factor i. Note two things about this: First, we could just as well define p-complements as occurring when “an increase in the price of one input reduces the demand for the other” because (recall our notes on single-firm factor demand) factor demand responses are predicted to be symmetric. Second, since own factor demand effects must be negative, p-complementarity means the quantities of xi and xj both fall when the price of either one rises. Now suppose there is also a system of factor supply equations of the form: x1 = S1(Y, w1 , w2 , … wn) x2 = S2(Y, w1 , w2 , … wn) . = …….. (2) ……. xn = Sn(Y, w1 , w2 , … wn) where Y is a shift variable, like household income. If certain regularity conditions hold, we can solve (1) and (2) for the vectors of equilibrium factor prices and quantities, w and x, as a function of the exogenous variables (p and Y). If we ignore interactions between factors in this context, we can answer some important questions about labor markets at the industry level using a simple diagrammatic approach. For example: 3 3. Payroll Tax Incidence S´ $1 w1 b Firms’ share a w0 w1-$1 S Workers’ share D L1 L0 L Consider a tax of one dollar per unit of labor supplied, levied on workers. This shifts the labor supply curve vertically (upwards) by one dollar, from S to S´. (Why? Because supplying L units of labor at a wage of $w per hour is the same as supplying L units of labor at $w+1 per hour, then paying a tax of one dollar per hour). So whatever amount of labor was supplied at $w before, will now be supplied at $w+1. The shift in the supply curve moves the equilibrium from point a to point b, so the equilibrium wage rises from w0 to w1 and the amount of labor exchanged falls from L0 to L1. Total tax revenues collected by the government will be $1 times the amount of labor exchanged in the new equilibrium, which equals the combined area of the two rectangles labelled “Firms’ share” and “Workers’ share”. How much of this total tax burden is ‘borne’ by firms? Firms pay no taxes, but now pay w1 instead of w0 for labor. Multiplying this difference by the amount of labor employed yields the rectangle labelled “firms’ share”. Thus, even though firms are not ‘physically’ paying any taxes to the government, they do share in the tax burden. Workers receive a higher wage, w1 than they did before the tax was imposed (w0), but they also pay $1 in tax per unit of labor sold. The difference between their old and new situation is therefore w0 – (w1-$1). Multiplying this by the amount of labor employed yields the rectangle labelled “workers’ share”, which is less than the total amount workers are physically paying to the government ($1∙L0). Thus, workers bear only part of the tax they are ‘physically’ paying; the rest is shifted to firms via a higher equilibrium wage. How much of the tax is shifted? The share of the tax shifted to firms rises with the elasticity of labor supply, and falls with the elasticity of labor demand. In general, as in any market, the inelastic side of the market bears the burden of the tax. 4 Exercises: 1. Re-draw the above figure for the case of a very elastic labor supply curve and a very inelastic labor demand curve, and show that in this case almost all of a tax on workers is shifted from workers to firms. 2. How would the diagram change if the tax was a percentage of wages (e.g. like U.S. Social Security taxes) rather than a dollar amount per unit of labor supplied? 3. Re-draw the above figure for the case of a one dollar tax per unit of labor, levied on firms instead of workers. Show that: (a) the new equilibrium level of L is exactly the same as if workers paid the tax, but this time the wage falls instead of rising. (b) the incidence of the tax is exactly the same as if it were levied on workers. In other words, the distribution of the tax burden is completely unaffected by which party ‘physically’ pays the tax. 5 4. Some Simple Economics of Mandated Benefits (Summers, AER May 1989) S0 $α w1+$1 w0 w1+$α firms’ share workers’ share S1 a b w1 c $1 D0 D1 L Consider a law that compels firms to give workers a benefit that costs one dollar to provide for every unit of labor hired. If this benefit is not valued by workers at all, this is just like a one-dollar unit tax levied on firms: it shifts the labor demand curve down by $1, and moves the equilibrium from point a to point b. Wages fall, meaning that part of the tax burden is shifted from firms to workers, and the amount of labor exchanged falls too. So mandated benefits are indeed ‘job killers’. But suppose that the benefit firms are forced to give to workers is valued by workers at $α per unit, where 0 < α < 1. This means that the mandated benefit shifts the labor supply curve down by $α, to S1. Why? (be sure work it out). This puts the new equilibrium at point c, at an even lower wage, but a higher level of employment. At the new equilibrium, firms pay a wage of w1 (much lower than before) but must provide benefits costing $1, so the difference in unit labor costs between the new and old equilibrium is w1 + $1 - w0. Multiplying this by L yields the rectangle labelled “firms’ share”. Likewise, at the new equilibrium, workers receive a wage of w1 (much lower than before) but receive a benefit that is worth $α to them. So the difference between the old and new equilibrium to them is w0 - (w1+$α). Multiplying this by L yields the rectangle labelled “workers’ share”. Note that the total burden of the mandated benefit is the sum of these rectangles, or L(1- α), which is smaller than the burden of a pure tax. As before, the division of this burden depends on the relative elasticities of demand and supply, but its total amount now depends on how much workers value the benefit. Exercise: Show, diagramatically, that (as the above formula for the total burden suggests) a mandated benefit has zero allocative or distributional effect on labor markets when α=1, i.e. when workers fully value the benefit that is mandated. Show that equilibrium wages will, however, fall by the full cost of supplying the benefit, i.e. by $1 in the above example. 6 5. The one-good general-equilibrium model. Now imagine an entire closed economy (not trading with other economies) where a fixed but large number, N, of identical firms all produce the same good, y using a vector of inputs, x. Each of these firms is small enough that it takes the economy’s vector of factor prices, w, as fixed. The supply of factors to the entire economy, however, is fixed. Denote the economy’s factor endowment vector by X. Thus, for the economy as a whole, X is exogenous, while the vector of input prices, w, is endogenously determined. (In principle the price of the single output good is endogenous too, but we need a numeraire commodity and it is the natural one. So we set its price equal to one; effectively this means we measure wages and other factor prices in terms of units of output –GDP if you prefer—that are paid to each factor owner.) Referring back to the first-order conditions for a profit-maximization by a single, representative firm and setting p=1, we note that each firm’s use of inputs must satisfy: w1 = F1(x1 , x2 , … xn) w2 = F2(x1 , x2 , … xn) . = …….. (3) ……. wn = Fn(x1 , x2 , … xn) where F is the representative firm’s production function and the x’s are the amounts of factors used by a representative firm. Finally, note that since all the firms are identical, we must have xi = Xi/ N for all i. Thus (3) gives us a system of equations that gives the economy’s equilibrium factor prices, w, as a function of the economy’s factor endowment vector, X. Note that the predicted effect of an increase in the economy’s endowment of a factor i on factor j’s equilibrium price is simply given by the appropriate term of the Hessian matrix of the production function. So, in some sense, this relationship is mathematically much simpler than the effects of prices on quantities at the firm level, which requires us to solve a maximization problem. Finally, note that concavity of the production function (Fii < 0) means that the ‘own’ effects of increases in factor endowments on factor prices should be negative. Definition (Hamermesh 1993): factors i and j are q-complements iff ∂wi/∂Xj < 0. Otherwise they are q-substitutes. In other words, xi and xj are q-complements if an increase in the economy’s endowment of factor j leads an increase in the equilibrium price of factor i. Thus, another term for q-complements in the trade literature is “friends”. Note three things about this: First, every factor is its own enemy, since Fii < 0 for all i. Second, as for p-complementarity, q-complementarity is symmetric. So we can just as well say that two factors are q-complements iff “an increase in the endowed quantity of one raises the equilibrium price of the other”. Third, whether a pair of factors are p-complements has little or nothing to do with whether they are q-complements. To illustrate this, do the following exercise: 7 Exercise: Show that, for a Cobb-Douglas production function, all factors are psubstitutes, and q-complements. Some additional notes on the one-sector general-equilibrium model: 1. This model is often used as an interpretive framework for studying the effects of changes in factor endowments (including immigration, cohort size, etc) on (the distribution of) wages. 2. Note that, if factors move together, the predicted effects of factor flows can be unexpected. For example, while an inflow of any one factor alone is predicted to lower its equilibrium return (this is just the ‘law’ – or if you prefer, assumption—of diminishing returns to any one factor), a ‘balanced’ inflow of all factors will have zero effect on factor prices if the production function exhibits constant returns to scale. So, if immigrants bring capital with them when they immigrate…. More deeply, this discussion the question of whether economies have any fixed factors, and if so, what are they? (land, climate, political stability, business culture….). 3. Predictions can also change dramatically if we allow for multiple goods and trade. For example, in the ‘classic’ trade model, Samuelson’s factor price equalization theorem holds, which argues that free trade between countries with the same production function will equalize their factor prices, even when no factor flows are possible between the countries. Thus, international factor movements have zero effects on equilibrium factor prices in this model as well.